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食品饮料行业2024Q3基金持仓:公募继续减配,筹码持续出清
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:58
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [3][4]. Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio of public funds in the food and beverage industry is 8.97%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points (pct) from the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since Q3 2017. The overweight ratio is 2.68%, also down by 0.67pct [2][6]. - The top five holdings in the food and beverage sector are Kweichow Moutai (1.49%), Wuliangye (0.87%), Luzhou Laojiao (0.50%), Shanxi Fenjiu (0.49%), and Gujing Gongjiu (0.32%) [10][12]. - The report indicates a continued reduction in public fund allocations, with a notable decrease in the wine sector, which has seen its holding ratio drop to the lowest level since 2018 [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Holdings - The public fund holding ratio in the food and beverage industry is 8.97%, with an overweight ratio of 2.68%, both showing a decline from the previous quarter [6][7]. - The number of funds holding major wine companies totals 932, with a combined holding value of 1240.63 billion [12][13]. 2. Investment Recommendations - For the wine sector, focus on valuation and the quality of financial reports. Recommended stocks include Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Gujing Gongjiu, among others [3][4]. - In the food sector, attention should be given to leading consumer goods companies that are expected to benefit from demand recovery [3][4]. 3. Sector Performance - The wine sector has seen a significant reduction in fund allocations, with the holding ratio decreasing by 0.54pct to 7.94% [16][19]. - Other sub-sectors such as frozen foods and snacks have experienced increased allocations, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [16][23].
新凤鸣:政策落地,需求有望复苏
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.197 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 11.31% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 746 million yuan, a decrease of 15.91% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.924 billion yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year and 6.56% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 141 million yuan, down 65.41% year-on-year and 57.23% quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The demand for polyester filament continues to recover, with a cumulative apparent consumption of 8.38 million tons in Q3 2024, an increase of 5.53% year-on-year [5] - The operating rate of downstream weaving machines has rebounded from a low of 58.95% in August to 68.72% as of October 24 [5] - Recent policies aimed at boosting real estate and consumption are expected to further improve demand for polyester filament [5] - The profitability of polyester filament is expected to continue to recover, with price spreads improving in Q3 2024 [5] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1 billion yuan, 3 billion yuan, and 4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.67 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.60 yuan [5][6] Financial Data Summary - For 2024E, the company is expected to generate a revenue of 78.348 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 27.46% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024E is 1.016 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.43% compared to 2023 [6] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024E is estimated at 17.1X, decreasing to 5.8X in 2025E and 4.4X in 2026E [6] - The asset-liability ratio is reported at 68.32% [3]
海天味业:经营稳健,符合预期
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.399 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.815 billion yuan, up 11.23% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.243 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.83%, and a net profit of 1.362 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.50% year-on-year [2][6] - The company's core products showed improved performance, with family-end products maintaining double-digit growth and a significant recovery in the restaurant-end products [6] - The gross profit margin increased by 2.07 percentage points to 36.61% in Q3 2024, driven by raw material cost benefits and supply chain reforms [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.950 billion yuan, 28.849 billion yuan, and 31.444 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.73%, 7.05%, and 8.99% [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.243 billion yuan, 6.772 billion yuan, and 7.560 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 10.96%, 8.46%, and 11.64% respectively [6][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.36 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7]
中国海油:盈利能力持续稳健
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.5% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 36.93 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The company continues to enhance its oil and gas reserves and production, with total oil and gas output reaching 54.21 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [6] - Capital expenditure remained high at 95.34 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting ongoing project advancements [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit certainty with projected net profits of 156 billion yuan, 160.1 billion yuan, and 165.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 3.28 yuan, 3.37 yuan, and 3.48 yuan, with PE ratios of 8.3X, 8.1X, and 7.9X respectively [6][7] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 421.06 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.07% [7] - The company’s net profit for 2024 is estimated at 156.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.98% [7] - The company’s current price is 27.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 77.84 billion yuan [3][4]
凌云股份:Q3业绩短期承压,新兴业务持续拓展
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is under pressure, with revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year and 4.9% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company is 100 million yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year and 42.8% quarter-on-quarter. However, Q4 is expected to improve sequentially due to the gradual effects of policies and the industry entering a peak season. The company's energy storage business is expanding smoothly, laying a solid foundation for sustained growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 13.35 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 4.41 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year and 4.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year and 42.8% quarter-on-quarter [6]. Business Expansion - The company is successfully expanding its energy storage business, having achieved breakthroughs in projects with leading global communication equipment suppliers and North American energy storage companies. This new business development is expected to support the company's continuous growth [6]. Market Trends - The trend towards lightweight structures is clear, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 48.9% in September, up 14.4 percentage points year-on-year. The company, as a leader in lightweight components, is expected to benefit from this trend [6]. Investment Recommendations - Considering the pressure on Q3 performance, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.2 billion, 20.7 billion, and 22.4 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5%, 8.2%, and 7.8% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 680 million, 840 million, and 990 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth of 7.3%, 24.3%, and 17.3% respectively. The company is positioned as a leader in lightweight solutions and is focusing on strategic emerging industries, justifying the "Buy" rating [6].
宁波银行:信贷结构表现优异,不良生成压力减小
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:38
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 7.45% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 7.02% [6] - The performance has shown marginal improvement, with net interest margin contributions turning positive [6] - The credit structure is strong, and the pressure from non-performing loans has decreased [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 50.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [6] - Net interest income rose by 16.91% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 7.02% [6] - The contribution to net profit from interest-earning assets, net interest margin, cost control, and provisions were +14.65%, +2.26%, +6.21%, and -1.60% respectively [6] Credit Structure - As of Q3 2024, the loan balance was 1.46 trillion yuan, up 19.64% year-on-year [6] - The new retail loan proportion increased significantly compared to Q2 2024 [6] - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.85%, showing resilience [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio and attention ratio were 0.76% and 1.08% respectively, with a slight increase in the attention ratio [6] - The annualized non-performing loan generation rate for Q3 2024 was 1.07%, indicating reduced pressure [6] - The provision coverage ratio was 404.80%, reflecting strong risk mitigation capabilities [6] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 66.233 billion yuan, 72.119 billion yuan, and 79.940 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 7.55%, 8.89%, and 10.85% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 28.177 billion yuan, 31.669 billion yuan, and 35.169 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.34%, 12.40%, and 11.05% [7] - The company maintains a resilient operational outlook, justifying the "Buy" rating [6]
江苏金租:净利差韧性较强,关注率明显改善
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 13:05
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.76% and 9.12% respectively for Q1-Q3 2024, with growth rates improving compared to H1 2024 [2][6] - The company's credit cost rate decreased to 0.58%, down by 13 basis points from H1 2024, contributing to the improvement in net profit growth [6] - The annualized ROE for Q1-Q3 2024 was 15.83%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from H1 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, Jiangsu Jinzu achieved operating revenue of 3.959 billion yuan and net profit of 2.227 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.76% and 9.12% respectively [6] - The interest income for the same period was 3.895 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.79% [6] - The company's financing lease asset scale reached 127.939 billion yuan, growing by 12.30% year-on-year [6] Business Stability - The net interest margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 3.67%, showing strong resilience despite a slight decrease of 1 basis point from H1 2024 [6] - The company maintained a high provision coverage ratio of 426.01% as of Q3 2024, although it decreased by 5.21 percentage points from H1 2024 [6] Asset Quality - As of Q3 2024, the company's non-performing loan ratio was 0.92%, with a slight increase, while the attention rate improved significantly to 3.04%, down by 35 basis points from H1 2024 [6] - The overall asset quality showed notable improvement, attributed to the company's proactive risk management strategies [6] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 5.182 billion, 5.582 billion, and 6.025 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.25%, 7.72%, and 7.94% [6][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.883 billion, 3.106 billion, and 3.354 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 8.39%, 7.72%, and 7.98% respectively [6][7]
长安汽车:三季度业绩承压,新车上市有望改善
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 11:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 110.96 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.58 billion yuan, down 63.8% year-on-year, indicating operational pressure [2][6] - The company has been focusing on the transformation to its own new energy brand and expanding overseas, with a 46.0% year-on-year growth in its own new energy sales and a 65.5% increase in overseas sales for its own brand [2][6] - The launch of new models and the deepening cooperation with Huawei are expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and drive future growth [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 34.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.8% year-on-year and 13.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 750 million yuan, down 66.4% year-on-year and 55.3% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The total vehicle sales in Q3 were 571,000 units, down 12.7% year-on-year and 11.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a single vehicle revenue of 60,000 yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year and 3.0% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross margin improved to 15.7% in Q3, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, mainly due to cost reduction efforts [6] Future Outlook - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 158.695 billion yuan, 178.925 billion yuan, and 209.974 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 4.89%, 12.75%, and 17.35% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.726 billion yuan, 9.397 billion yuan, and 11.336 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of -49.45%, 64.11%, and 20.64% [7] - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by new model deliveries and collaboration with Huawei, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7]
拉卡拉:扫码交易金额较快增长,投资参股进入信用信息服务行业
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 10:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.389 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 513 million yuan, down 17.49% year-on-year. Despite this, the company maintains a stable market share and has seen rapid growth in QR code transaction amounts. The company has also jointly invested 30 million yuan to establish Kaola Xinke, aiming to create a leading credit information service enterprise [2][6][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a payment transaction amount of 3.19 trillion yuan, maintaining industry leadership with a stable market share. QR code transaction amounts reached 1 trillion yuan, growing by 18.86% year-on-year, while card transaction amounts decreased by 14.80% year-on-year, which is lower than the overall industry decline. The digital payment business revenue was 3.91 billion yuan, up 1.89% year-on-year [6][4]. Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 6.067 billion yuan, 6.638 billion yuan, and 7.331 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.23%, 9.42%, and 10.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 695 million yuan, 822 million yuan, and 974 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 51.96%, 18.19%, and 18.55% respectively [6][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the third-party payment sector, benefiting from the recovery of offline consumption and an increase in net fee rates. The establishment of Kaola Xinke is expected to enhance its capabilities in the credit information service sector, leveraging its strengths in payment technology and financial technology [2][6].
上能电气:海外光储市场持续开拓,盈利能力明显提升
Guolian Securities· 2024-10-29 09:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant growth in profitability, with a notable increase in net profit by 44.82% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, despite a revenue decline of 7.30% [2][6]. - The expansion into overseas solar and storage markets has yielded positive results, contributing to improved profitability [2][6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 29.26% in Q3 2024, an increase of 5.62 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company generated revenue of 3.069 billion yuan, down 7.30% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 302 million yuan, up 44.82% [2][6]. - In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 1.143 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.83% year-on-year, but a decrease of 5.88% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 43% from the previous quarter, indicating a strong order backlog [6]. Market Expansion and Demand Growth - The company has strategically targeted emerging markets such as the Middle East, India, Africa, and Southeast Asia, where solar and storage market potential is significant due to favorable sunlight conditions and weaker grid infrastructure [6]. - In H1 2024, overseas business revenue surged by 115.46% year-on-year, showcasing the effectiveness of the company's international expansion strategy [6]. - The company made its first shipment of 22 string inverter energy storage systems to the U.S. market in September 2024, marking a significant milestone in its entry into high-value markets [6]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 6.738 billion yuan, 8.629 billion yuan, and 10.592 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.61%, 28.05%, and 22.75% respectively [6][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 524 million yuan, 773 million yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan, with growth rates of 83.39%, 47.37%, and 34.75% respectively [6][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 1.46 yuan, 2.15 yuan, and 2.90 yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.85% over three years [6][7].