Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.1% year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment in Q2 2024, and a 25.0% drop in sales revenue[7] - Housing prices have decreased significantly, with new residential sales area down 21.9% and sales revenue down 26.9%[7] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has increased by 15.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market weakness[7] Group 2: Economic Impact and Policy Response - The decline in housing prices has negatively affected consumer and investment behavior, leading to a contraction in M1 money supply, which experienced four consecutive months of negative growth[7] - Local government land transfer revenue has decreased by 14% year-on-year, marking 25 consecutive months of negative growth, which puts pressure on local finances[12] - The current macroeconomic policy focus is on addressing structural adjustments and fiscal gaps resulting from declining land finance, with a "waiting" phase for real estate issues[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Under a neutral assumption, the decline in housing prices is expected to continue until late 2025 or early 2026, with increasing opportunity costs if the downward trend persists[1] - The weakening of land finance may lead to reduced subsidies for industries, impacting export competitiveness[2] - Risks include potential policy measures being less effective than expected, leading to further deterioration in real estate data and slower economic growth momentum conversion[2]

证券研究报告|行业周报 2024/09/19 电气设备行业 宁德宜春锂生产线调整,锂板块短期反弹 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 01 新能源产业趋势点评 02 产业动态&数据跟踪 l 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 光伏/风电 储能/电网 电力（新能源/传统能源） 03 附录 l 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 01 新能源产业趋势点评 珍惜有限 创造无限 4 新能源产业趋势点评（2024年9月1日-9月13日） 能源金属 锂 ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the industry is at a turning point, awaiting a recovery phase as prices in the supply chain continue to decline, impacting financial performance negatively [27] - The battery segment is under significant profit pressure and has seen a decline in cash reserves, leading to consolidation within the industry [26][27] - Emerging markets are becoming new growth points, with increasing demand for stable electricity supply, which solar power can help alleviate [10][11][14] Summary by Sections Solar Industry Overview - In the first half of 2024, solar installations reached 102 GW, a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] - Solar module exports totaled 129 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [4] - The share of exports to Europe has decreased, while emerging markets have seen an increase in their share [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand in emerging markets is accelerating, replacing traditional markets in Europe and North America as new growth drivers [10] - The cost of solar power is expected to reach 0.4-0.5 yuan/kWh, making it competitive against global electricity prices [13][14] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the solar industry experienced a slight increase in revenue, but net profit showed a year-on-year decline [18] - The profitability of main materials has deteriorated significantly, while auxiliary materials maintained stable profitability [21][22] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures in the industry continue to decline, with significant reductions in key segments such as battery and support structures [24] - The cash reserves of companies in the main materials segment have decreased notably, indicating financial strain [25]

证券研究报告|行业点评 2024/9/19 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 光伏行业2024年半年总结：出清前夕，静待黎明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 | | | | | | 分析师：蔡紫豪 | | | | | | 登记编码： S0950523070002 | | | | | | 邮箱： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn | | | | | 珍惜有限 创造无限 24H1需求良好，组件出口中欧洲占比下降 图表1：2024H1光伏装机102GW，yoy=31% 36% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical performance of gold and copper prices following interest rate cuts, indicating that gold tends to perform better in both preventive and accommodative rate cut cycles [12][18] - It highlights that the current interest rate cut cycle may resemble that of 2019, with strong expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy, but also notes the unique challenges posed by the upcoming U.S. elections and persistent inflation [29][31] Summary by Sections Historical Review of Gold and Copper Prices Post-Rate Cuts - The report categorizes U.S. rate cuts into preventive and accommodative types, noting that each type has different impacts on commodity prices [13][21] - Historical data shows that gold generally has a higher success rate in price performance during complete rate cut cycles compared to copper [16][18] - The report emphasizes that during short-term periods following rate cuts, gold typically sees an increase while copper's performance is more variable [16][21] Updates on Key Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows stronger certainty during the rate cut cycle [31] - **Copper**: Short-term uncertainty exists, but long-term price outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI [32] - **Aluminum**: High profitability is expected to continue, with potential differentiation in green aluminum [33] - **Lead and Zinc**: Supply tightness persists despite some overseas zinc mine restarts; attention is on smelting production cuts [35] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to macroeconomic recovery and semiconductor demand [36] - **Nickel**: The market is sensitive to changes in Indonesian mining conditions, with potential for price elasticity [37] Price Movements - The report provides weekly price changes for various metals, indicating significant increases in precious metals like gold (+3.87%) and silver (+8.03%), as well as industrial metals like copper (+3.38%) and aluminum (+5.62%) [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has undergone seven major adjustments since the 1998 reform, driven by macroeconomic fluctuations, price control, financial risk prevention, and housing demand [2][15] - The current round of regulatory policies emphasizes precision and the establishment of long-term mechanisms, moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches to tailored policies based on local market conditions [2][15] Summary by Sections Section 1: 1998 Housing Reform and Tax Sharing System - The initial goal of the 1998 housing reform was to address the housing shortage caused by rapid urbanization in the 1970s [8] - The tax sharing system reform aimed to allocate more resources and administrative power to local governments to promote economic development [14] Section 2: Real Estate Policies and Macroeconomic Cycles - Since 1998, there have been four positive adjustments and three negative adjustments in real estate policies, reflecting the need to respond to economic overheating or downturns [2][15] - Key policy goals include controlling housing prices, stabilizing the market, preventing systemic financial risks, and improving housing conditions for low-income groups [2][15] Section 3: Major Adjustments Overview - The report outlines seven phases of policy adjustments from 1998 to 2024, highlighting the shift from nationwide policies to localized strategies [2][15] - The adjustments have been influenced by various factors, including economic growth targets, housing demand, and financial stability [2][15] Section 4: Economic Context and Real Estate Development - The report discusses the correlation between macroeconomic growth and real estate consumption, noting that high GDP growth rates have historically supported real estate market expansion [9][12] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between economic growth and housing market stability to avoid systemic risks [15] Section 5: Recent Policy Developments - Recent policies focus on preventing asset bubbles and ensuring housing is primarily for living rather than speculation, with an emphasis on long-term stability [2][15] - The introduction of the "three red lines" policy aims to control developers' debt levels and mitigate financial risks in the real estate sector [2][15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the antimony industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The antimony industry is experiencing a tightening of policies aimed at regulating the global supply chain, with key markets like the US, Japan, and Europe listing antimony as a critical metal [1][10] - China's antimony resource advantages have diminished over the past two decades, with its global reserve share dropping from over 40% to 29.5% and production share from 91.4% to 48.12% by 2023 [1][14] - There is a growing gap between domestic antimony production and apparent consumption, leading to increased reliance on imports [20][19] - The demand for antimony is expected to rise, with projections indicating a total demand of 191,200 tons by 2026, driven by applications in flame retardants, glass ceramics, and other sectors [38] Summary by Sections 1. Antimony Industry Policy - Recent policies have been implemented to regulate the antimony supply chain globally, with a focus on high-tech applications [1][12] - Historical context shows a shift from a "loose" to a "tight" regulatory environment for antimony in China [10][14] 2. Historical Overview of Antimony Resources - China's antimony production peaked in 2008, contributing 91.4% of global output, but has since declined significantly [14] - The country now faces a critical gap between its annual production of 40,000 tons and an average consumption of 134,000 tons, leading to a 90,000-ton shortfall [20][19] 3. Supply and Demand Characteristics - Antimony is characterized by low abundance and high demand elasticity, primarily used as an additive in various industrial applications [22][24] - The report anticipates a supply-demand reversal starting in 2023, with a projected supply gap of 24,000 tons by 2026 [38] 4. Inventory Trends - The report notes a significant reduction in antimony inventory levels, with a 36% decrease in metal antimony inventory year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [33][37] - The hidden inventory from the Pan-Asia Nonferrous Metals Exchange has been largely consumed, contributing to the tightening supply [33] 5. Mid-term Supply and Demand Outlook - Demand is expected to grow steadily, with a shift in consumption patterns favoring glass ceramics over traditional flame retardants [38] - Supply growth is anticipated to be limited, with domestic mining capacity constraints and slow overseas project ramp-ups [38]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the new quality productivity in high-end manufacturing, which is crucial for navigating the upcoming technological revolution and industrial transformation [6][7] - The focus is on promoting the deep integration of the real economy and digital economy, accelerating new industrialization, and reasonably reducing the comprehensive costs and tax burdens of the manufacturing industry [10] - There is a strong emphasis on developing self-controllable key industrial chains, advancing low-altitude economy, and concentrating on critical areas that face bottlenecks [12][14] Summary by Sections Section 1: New Quality Productivity - The report highlights the need to establish a system for developing new quality productivity tailored to local conditions, which is prioritized in promoting high-quality economic development [2][7] - It discusses the significance of enhancing institutional supply in new fields and guiding the healthy development of emerging industries through strategic policies [7] Section 2: Integration of Real and Digital Economies - The report outlines the goal of fostering the deep integration of the real economy with the digital economy, promoting high-end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing [10] - It notes the growth in domestic sales of excavators and loaders, indicating a positive trend in the machinery sector, with electric loaders showing significant growth [10] Section 3: Self-Controlled Industrial Chains - The report stresses the urgency of enhancing the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains, particularly in semiconductor equipment and industrial mother machines [12][14] - It mentions the increasing domestic production of semiconductor equipment and the expected rise in the domestic market share due to improved local capabilities [12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to have stronger short-term certainty as the interest rate cut approaches in September [7] - Copper shows short-term uncertainty but is viewed positively for the medium to long term [8] - Aluminum is expected to maintain high profitability, with potential differentiation in green aluminum [9] - Lead and zinc are under pressure due to overseas zinc mine restarts, with a focus on smelting production cuts [10] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to adjustments in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [11] - Nickel prices are under pressure as inventory continues to build, nearing cost support [12] - Tungsten prices are rising amid ongoing supply-demand dynamics [13] - Antimony prices are stable domestically while increasing overseas [14] - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to strong steel demand [15] - Rare earth prices are anticipated to continue rising in September [17] - Titanium market remains stable, but demand for titanium metal is weak [18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Updates on Key Views - Precious Metals: Gold shows stronger short-term certainty as interest rate cuts approach [7] - Industrial Metals: - Copper: Short-term uncertainty but positive medium to long-term outlook [8] - Aluminum: High profitability expected to continue, with potential for green aluminum differentiation [9] - Lead and Zinc: Overseas zinc mine restarts may pressure prices; focus on smelting production cuts [10] - Tin: Prices expected to fluctuate weakly due to semiconductor index adjustments [11] - Nickel: Prices under pressure as inventory builds [12] - Strategic Minor Metals: - Tungsten: Prices rising amid supply-demand dynamics [13] - Antimony: Domestic prices stable, overseas prices rising [14] - Molybdenum: Prices expected to remain high due to strong steel demand [15] - Rare Earth: Prices expected to rise in September [17] - Titanium: Market stable, but demand for titanium metal is weak [18] Section 2: Macroeconomic Trends and Industry Dynamics - Global PMI is approaching a turning point, with US GDP remaining relatively strong [19][22] - China's PMI remains under pressure, with fixed asset investment fluctuating at low levels [19][24] - Codelco plans to acquire a 10% stake in the QB copper mine for $520 million [28] - Guangdong region's recycling enterprises face a VAT rate of approximately 10.2% [29] - Chile's copper production increased by about 2% year-on-year in July 2024 [30] - BMI raised its 2024 tin price forecast, expecting a multi-year bull market [31] Section 3: Metal Prices and Sector Performance - Precious Metals: COMEX gold down 0.6% to $2483.70/oz, with a year-on-year increase of 29.61% [35] - Industrial Metals: LME copper down 3.22% to $8954/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 7.81% [39]