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来拐点。24H1 海外储能大单频现，如阳光电源获沙特 7.8GWh 订单、特斯 拉获 Intersect Power 15.3GWh 订单等，均验证了这一逻辑。现阶段海外大 储竞争烈度相对较低，有明显超额利润，海外布局较早的企业有先发优势。 投资建议 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

纳问题有望随着储能快速发展、需求响应完善、项目核准收紧等举措得到缓 解，另一方面随着绿证核发机制、电碳协同机制、绿证强制消费机制完善，环 境溢价有望得到体现，绿电有望成为下一纾困对象，实现盈利和估值的双重 反转，当然市场预期的拐点仍待观察。 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------ ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.1% year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment in Q2 2024, and a 25.0% drop in sales revenue[7] - Housing prices have decreased significantly, with new residential sales area down 21.9% and sales revenue down 26.9%[7] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has increased by 15.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market weakness[7] Group 2: Economic Impact and Policy Response - The decline in housing prices has negatively affected consumer and investment behavior, leading to a contraction in M1 money supply, which experienced four consecutive months of negative growth[7] - Local government land transfer revenue has decreased by 14% year-on-year, marking 25 consecutive months of negative growth, which puts pressure on local finances[12] - The current macroeconomic policy focus is on addressing structural adjustments and fiscal gaps resulting from declining land finance, with a "waiting" phase for real estate issues[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Under a neutral assumption, the decline in housing prices is expected to continue until late 2025 or early 2026, with increasing opportunity costs if the downward trend persists[1] - The weakening of land finance may lead to reduced subsidies for industries, impacting export competitiveness[2] - Risks include potential policy measures being less effective than expected, leading to further deterioration in real estate data and slower economic growth momentum conversion[2]

证券研究报告|行业周报 2024/09/19 电气设备行业 宁德宜春锂生产线调整,锂板块短期反弹 投资评级 看好 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 分析师：张斯恺 登记编码：S0950523110002 邮箱：zhangsikai@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：顾思捷 邮箱：gusj@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 邮箱：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 联系人：钟林志 邮箱：zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：蔡紫豪 登记编码：S0950523070002 邮箱：caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 分析师：张娜威 登记编码： S0950524070001 邮箱： zhangnawei@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 01 新能源产业趋势点评 02 产业动态&数据跟踪 l 能源金属 电池及材料 新能源车 光伏/风电 储能/电网 电力（新能源/传统能源） 03 附录 l 行业指数涨跌幅 细分板块行情回顾 01 新能源产业趋势点评 珍惜有限 创造无限 4 新能源产业趋势点评（2024年9月1日-9月13日） 能源金属 锂 ...

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the industry is at a turning point, awaiting a recovery phase as prices in the supply chain continue to decline, impacting financial performance negatively [27] - The battery segment is under significant profit pressure and has seen a decline in cash reserves, leading to consolidation within the industry [26][27] - Emerging markets are becoming new growth points, with increasing demand for stable electricity supply, which solar power can help alleviate [10][11][14] Summary by Sections Solar Industry Overview - In the first half of 2024, solar installations reached 102 GW, a year-on-year increase of 31% [3] - Solar module exports totaled 129 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [4] - The share of exports to Europe has decreased, while emerging markets have seen an increase in their share [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the demand in emerging markets is accelerating, replacing traditional markets in Europe and North America as new growth drivers [10] - The cost of solar power is expected to reach 0.4-0.5 yuan/kWh, making it competitive against global electricity prices [13][14] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the solar industry experienced a slight increase in revenue, but net profit showed a year-on-year decline [18] - The profitability of main materials has deteriorated significantly, while auxiliary materials maintained stable profitability [21][22] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures in the industry continue to decline, with significant reductions in key segments such as battery and support structures [24] - The cash reserves of companies in the main materials segment have decreased notably, indicating financial strain [25]

证券研究报告|行业点评 2024/9/19 电气设备行业 投资评级 看好 光伏行业2024年半年总结：出清前夕，静待黎明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 五矿证券研究所新能源行业 | | | | | | 分析师：蔡紫豪 | | | | | | 登记编码： S0950523070002 | | | | | | 邮箱： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn | | | | | 珍惜有限 创造无限 24H1需求良好，组件出口中欧洲占比下降 图表1：2024H1光伏装机102GW，yoy=31% 36% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-022023-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical performance of gold and copper prices following interest rate cuts, indicating that gold tends to perform better in both preventive and accommodative rate cut cycles [12][18] - It highlights that the current interest rate cut cycle may resemble that of 2019, with strong expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy, but also notes the unique challenges posed by the upcoming U.S. elections and persistent inflation [29][31] Summary by Sections Historical Review of Gold and Copper Prices Post-Rate Cuts - The report categorizes U.S. rate cuts into preventive and accommodative types, noting that each type has different impacts on commodity prices [13][21] - Historical data shows that gold generally has a higher success rate in price performance during complete rate cut cycles compared to copper [16][18] - The report emphasizes that during short-term periods following rate cuts, gold typically sees an increase while copper's performance is more variable [16][21] Updates on Key Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows stronger certainty during the rate cut cycle [31] - **Copper**: Short-term uncertainty exists, but long-term price outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI [32] - **Aluminum**: High profitability is expected to continue, with potential differentiation in green aluminum [33] - **Lead and Zinc**: Supply tightness persists despite some overseas zinc mine restarts; attention is on smelting production cuts [35] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to macroeconomic recovery and semiconductor demand [36] - **Nickel**: The market is sensitive to changes in Indonesian mining conditions, with potential for price elasticity [37] Price Movements - The report provides weekly price changes for various metals, indicating significant increases in precious metals like gold (+3.87%) and silver (+8.03%), as well as industrial metals like copper (+3.38%) and aluminum (+5.62%) [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has undergone seven major adjustments since the 1998 reform, driven by macroeconomic fluctuations, price control, financial risk prevention, and housing demand [2][15] - The current round of regulatory policies emphasizes precision and the establishment of long-term mechanisms, moving away from one-size-fits-all approaches to tailored policies based on local market conditions [2][15] Summary by Sections Section 1: 1998 Housing Reform and Tax Sharing System - The initial goal of the 1998 housing reform was to address the housing shortage caused by rapid urbanization in the 1970s [8] - The tax sharing system reform aimed to allocate more resources and administrative power to local governments to promote economic development [14] Section 2: Real Estate Policies and Macroeconomic Cycles - Since 1998, there have been four positive adjustments and three negative adjustments in real estate policies, reflecting the need to respond to economic overheating or downturns [2][15] - Key policy goals include controlling housing prices, stabilizing the market, preventing systemic financial risks, and improving housing conditions for low-income groups [2][15] Section 3: Major Adjustments Overview - The report outlines seven phases of policy adjustments from 1998 to 2024, highlighting the shift from nationwide policies to localized strategies [2][15] - The adjustments have been influenced by various factors, including economic growth targets, housing demand, and financial stability [2][15] Section 4: Economic Context and Real Estate Development - The report discusses the correlation between macroeconomic growth and real estate consumption, noting that high GDP growth rates have historically supported real estate market expansion [9][12] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between economic growth and housing market stability to avoid systemic risks [15] Section 5: Recent Policy Developments - Recent policies focus on preventing asset bubbles and ensuring housing is primarily for living rather than speculation, with an emphasis on long-term stability [2][15] - The introduction of the "three red lines" policy aims to control developers' debt levels and mitigate financial risks in the real estate sector [2][15]