Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of port duty-free sales and the implementation of new policies for city duty-free shops, despite facing challenges in its Hainan operations [7] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 31.265 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.81% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.283 billion yuan, down 15.07% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.2 billion yuan, 7.2 billion yuan, and 8.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to ongoing pressures in the Hainan duty-free business [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue from Hainan and Shanghai was 16.785 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, with Hainan's revenue down 28.97% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 33.87%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.83%, a decrease of 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [3] Market Opportunities - The new city duty-free shop policies are expected to enhance the company's growth prospects, with several cities set to establish new duty-free shops [4] - The company is focusing on improving service offerings to capitalize on the anticipated growth in the duty-free market [4] Profitability Outlook - The company has seen improvements in gross profit margins due to a higher proportion of mid-to-high-end product sales, although overall sales performance has pressured net profit margins [3] - The projected earnings per share for 2024 is 2.985 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.44 [9]

单月钢招量创新高，钼价长期看好 事件描述 据亿览网消息，2024 年 8 月国内下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 14600 吨，创年内 新高。 事件点评 钢招维持高景气，单月招标量创年内新高。据亿览网消息，2024 年 8 月国内 下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 14600 吨，创年内新高，2024 年 1-8 月钢招总量为 9.8 万吨，同比增长 19%，8 月属于市场相对淡季但钢招量反而创新高，显示 钼下游需求旺盛。 造船、化工、风电领域需求良好，国内制造业加速转型升级。钼主要用于合金 钢、不锈钢、工具钢和铸铁，是制造业升级重要添加剂，终端需求主要在造 船、油气、汽车、石化、风电等领域。据电力企业联合会数据，24 年 1-7 月 国内风电实现新增装机容量 29.91GW，同比+13.68%，其中 7 月实现风电新 增装机 4.07GW，同比+22.59%。据工信部和统计局数据，今年上半年国内造 船完工量同比增长 18.4%，今年 1-7 月化工行业固定投资同比增长 9.9% ，终 端需求保持高景气。 紫金下调 25 年钼产量指引，钼矿供给维持刚性。今年 5 月紫金矿业发布公 告，预计 2025 年矿产钼产量为 1 万吨，较今 ...

单月钢招量创新高，钼价长期看好 事件描述 据亿览网消息，2024 年 8 月国内下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 14600 吨，创年内 新高。 事件点评 钢招维持高景气，单月招标量创年内新高。据亿览网消息，2024 年 8 月国内 下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 14600 吨，创年内新高，2024 年 1-8 月钢招总量为 9.8 万吨，同比增长 19%，8 月属于市场相对淡季但钢招量反而创新高，显示 钼下游需求旺盛。 造船、化工、风电领域需求良好，国内制造业加速转型升级。钼主要用于合金 钢、不锈钢、工具钢和铸铁，是制造业升级重要添加剂，终端需求主要在造 船、油气、汽车、石化、风电等领域。据电力企业联合会数据，24 年 1-7 月 国内风电实现新增装机容量 29.91GW，同比+13.68%，其中 7 月实现风电新 增装机 4.07GW，同比+22.59%。据工信部和统计局数据，今年上半年国内造 船完工量同比增长 18.4%，今年 1-7 月化工行业固定投资同比增长 9.9% ，终 端需求保持高景气。 紫金下调 25 年钼产量指引，钼矿供给维持刚性。今年 5 月紫金矿业发布公 告，预计 2025 年矿产钼产量为 1 万吨，较今 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 英伟达数据中心业务持续高增，华为 2024 上半年业绩亮眼 报告要点 英伟达 FY2025Q2 财报亮眼，数据中心业务领跑。8 月 29 日，英伟达发布 2025 财年第二财季报告。FY2025Q2，公司实现营收 300.4 亿美元，同比增 长 122%，环比增长 15%；GAAP 净利润 165.99 亿美元，同比增长 168%， 环比增长 12%；非 GAAP 净利润 169.52 亿美元，同比增长 152%，环比增 长 11%。英伟达的数据中心业务是主要驱动力，实现营收 263 亿美元，同比 增长 154%，环比增长 16%，占公司第二财季总营收的 87.5%；游戏收入 29 亿美元，同比增长 16%，环比增长 9%；专业视觉收入 4.54 亿美元，同比增 长 20%，环比增长 6%；汽车和机器人收入 3.46 亿美元，同比增长 37%，环 比增长 5%。英伟达 Blackwell 芯片因生产问题预计在 2024 年 4 季度开始量 产出货。公司预计 FY2025Q3 营收为 325 亿美元（上下浮动 2%）；GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率非别为 ...

[Table_Main] 锑系列深度二：供给告别"宽松时代" [Table_Invest] 有色金属 报告要点 全球地壳丰度与资源储量集中格局，共同决定了锑资源目前紧缺前提。全球 锑储采比仅 24 年（中国仅 16 年）。其稀缺度胜过四大战略金属中其它（钨、 锡、稀土）三个品种。储量格局上，全球呈现中、俄、玻三国占据半壁江山的 高集中度特征。我国锑资源则聚集在湖南、广西、贵州、云南四省。 复盘锑供给，一去难复返的"宽松时代"。复盘锑产业的二十年产量趋势，全 球锑产量整体呈现先升后降趋势。全球锑产量从 2004 年 11.3 万吨，攀升到 2008 年 19.7 万吨，随后 2017 产量整体下降到 13.7 万吨。供给周期大幅波 动的背后，是我国锑产业"透支式"生产——2023 年，我国锑储量占全球 29.5%，产量占全球 48.12%，十年分别下降 22.2PCTS /29.78PCTS，侧面 印证我国锑资源优势地位不断下滑。 供给展望，难言乐观： 1） 短期展望：23 年展望中，极地黄金针对奥林匹亚矿山公司 24 年金矿产量 并不乐观，主要因奥林匹亚达加工的矿石品位下滑。其次 23 年的配额为 过往若干年 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the "Belt and Road" initiative and platform enterprises as key investment opportunities in the high-end manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The automation sector shows unexpected stability in gross margins, with a gross margin of 29.9% in Q2 2024, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating resilience despite product structure adjustments [9][13]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing performance pressure due to high base effects, but significant improvement is expected in the second half of 2024 as low base effects come into play [9][21]. - The coal machinery sector remains stable, with high growth in overseas spare parts revenue, while the photovoltaic equipment sector is awaiting a turning point despite high revenue growth in Q2 2024 [9][38]. Summary by Sections Automation Sector - In Q2 2024, the automation sector's sample companies achieved a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 12% year-on-year [13][19]. - Comprehensive enterprises performed best with a revenue increase of 21% year-on-year and a net profit decline of 8% year-on-year [13]. - The sector's overall market size in the first half of 2024 was approximately 147.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year [13]. Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery sector's revenue in Q2 2024 was 75.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% but an increase of 11% quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The overseas revenue growth for the sector has declined, with a 14% increase noted in the first half of 2024, particularly in Belt and Road countries [9][23]. - The gross margin for the engineering machinery sector in Q2 2024 was reported at 26.0% [23]. Coal Machinery Sector - The coal machinery sector achieved stable performance with a net profit growth of 12% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [27]. - The sector's focus on overseas spare parts has been identified as a high-growth segment [9]. Photovoltaic Equipment Sector - The photovoltaic equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 46% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with a net profit growth of 3% [38]. - Key companies in this sector, such as Maiwei and Jiejia, have seen revenue growth exceeding 50% [38].

有色金属脉动跟踪：成本扰动之思 报告要点 本周专题探讨：成本扰动之思 专题要点：大宗商品价格下行过程中，底部位置往往会涉及成本支撑的概念， 当价格距离边际成本有一定空间时，成本同样会通过供给作用于价格。我们 认为，铜在 90%分位有较强价格支撑；锌长期来看 75%-80%分位有较强的支撑。 主要观点更新： 贵金属：随着 9 月降息步伐的临近，黄金短期确定性更强 铜：短期具备不确定性，看好中长期铜价 铝：高盈利有望持续，绿电铝可能分化 铅锌：矿山端紧张向冶炼端传导，价格震荡 锡：供给持续扰动，需求逐步回暖 镍：累库持续，价格震荡 钨：钨矿价格探升，上下游供需博弈态势持续 锑：极地黄金库存累积，预计下半年形成销售 钼：钢招需求旺盛，钼价维持高位 稀土：总量控制增速大幅回落，需求回升可期 钛：钛矿市场持稳，下游钛金属需求疲弱 金属价格涨跌： 贵金属周度涨跌幅：Comex 银（-1.56%），LME 钯（1.79%） 工业金属周度涨跌幅：LME 铝（-3.45%），LME 铅（-2.01%），LME 锡（-1.67%） 稀有小金属周度涨跌幅：钨精矿（1.79%），钼精矿（7.36%），钴（-5.59%）， 轻稀土氧化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electric equipment industry, particularly in the context of new energy development [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the commitment to transformation in the new energy sector, highlighting the government's supportive policies and the industry's growth potential [10]. - The report identifies key trends in energy metals, battery materials, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, energy storage, and the power sector [3][11]. Summary by Sections New Energy Industry Trend Commentary - Lithium prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations, with a carbonated lithium operating rate of 45% in late August, while cobalt prices remain weak and stable [5]. - The sales volume of power batteries in July was 86.3 GWh, showing a month-on-month decline of 6.4% but a year-on-year increase of 49.9% [6]. - The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles continues to exceed 50%, with significant model launches expected in the second half of the year [7]. - The photovoltaic sector is seeing slight price increases in silicon materials, while the wind power sector reported a 23% year-on-year increase in installed capacity [8]. Industry Dynamics & Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of energy metals, noting a significant increase in lithium production targets by companies like SQM and Pilbara [12]. - The report highlights the overall positive performance of the energy storage sector, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second half of 2024 [9]. - The power sector is bolstered by a government white paper reaffirming the commitment to energy transformation, emphasizing the necessity of advancing new energy initiatives [10]. Appendix - The report includes data on industry index fluctuations and a review of the performance of various sub-sectors within the new energy industry [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the commercial trade industry as "Neutral" [4] Core Insights - The implementation of the special government bonds worth 150 billion RMB is expected to significantly boost consumer spending, potentially generating around 750 billion RMB in market sales [1][10] - The July retail sales growth of 2.7% was below market expectations, indicating a slow recovery in overall consumer demand [3][11] - The government has issued new guidelines to promote high-quality service consumption, emphasizing the importance of service sectors in driving economic growth [25][26] Monthly Consumption Macro Summary - In July, the total retail sales reached 37,757 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 3.03% [11][12] - The retail sales of goods amounted to 33,354 billion RMB, also growing by 2.7% year-on-year, while dining revenue increased by 3.0% to 4,403 billion RMB [11][14] - The growth rate of rural consumption outpaced urban consumption, reflecting the vitality and potential of the rural market [11][12] Service Consumption Development - The State Council's recent opinion on promoting high-quality service consumption outlines 20 key tasks across six areas, aiming to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate demand [25][26] - The focus is on improving service quality in sectors like dining, tourism, and entertainment, which are expected to drive long-term growth in service consumption [25][26] Industry Performance - The commercial trade index has seen a decline of 25.18% year-to-date, indicating significant challenges within the sector [34][36] - The retail sector is experiencing a divergence, with traditional retail formats facing pressure while convenience stores and supermarkets show signs of recovery [12][14] Consumer Trends - Digital, green, and health consumption are emerging as new trends, with significant growth in categories like communication equipment and sports entertainment products [27][28] - The demand for essential consumer goods remains robust, while discretionary spending shows signs of weakness, particularly in categories like cosmetics and jewelry [16][19]

关注 1500 亿特别国债对消费的拉动效果 报告要点 消费宏观前瞻：需密切关注特别国债消费品以旧换新的实施效果 今年以来，国务院于 3 月印发的《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行 动方案》开启了全年消费政策的口子，其中 7 月 26 日印发的《关于加力支持 大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》更是从特别国债中划出 1500 亿左右资金支持地方自主实施消费品以旧换新。如果按照对消费品 20% 的补 贴来计算，那么预计能够拉动 7500 亿左右的市场销售额，根据星图检测数据 现实今年 618 各平台销量为 7428 亿，基本意味着可以再造一个 618 购物节。 我们认为，对消费的预判需要更加密切的关注 1500 亿特别国债资金对消费 的拉动。2024 年《政府工作报告》中提出，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长 期特别国债，如果今年的 1500 亿能够带来积极效果，那么明年进一步加码就 有了实施的方向。 促服务消费高质量发展意见发布，供需助推服务消费"升级" 国务院于 8 月 3 日印发《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》。《意见》 提出 6 方面 20 项重点任务，此为继 2023 年 7 月发改委发布《关 ...