2024 年 12 月 13 日 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------|--------| | 市场数据 \n指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | 3461.50 | 0.85 | | 深证成指 | 10957.13 | 1.00 | | 创业板指 | 2292.15 | 1.35 | | 科创 50 | 1010.90 | 0.37 | | 北证 50 | 1232.53 | -1.31 | | 沪深 300 | 4028.50 | 0.99 | A 股市场概览 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 流通市 值 ( 亿元 ) | 市盈率 PE | 市净率 PB | | 上证指数 | 656221 | 511346 | 12.11 | 1.29 | | 深证成指 | 226425 | 193082 | 2 ...

证券研究报告 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 2024 年 12 月 11 日 | --- | --- | |------------|--------| | | | | 市场数据 | | | 指数名称 | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | 0.59 | | 深证成指 | 0.75 | | 创业板指 | 0.69 | | 科创 50 | 0.75 | | 北证 50 | 2.35 | | 沪深 300 | 0.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 流通市 值 ( 亿元 ) | 市盈率 PE | 市净率 PB | | 上证指数 | 649819 | 505408 | 11.99 | 1.27 | | 深证成指 | 223271 | 190431 | 22.10 | 2.25 | | 创业板指 | 60600 | 49038 | 33.20 | 4.19 | | 科创 50 | 35153 | 21 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][5]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with terminal demand showing a mild recovery. The report highlights the importance of domestic brands and technologies in the semiconductor supply chain [5]. - The high-end smartphone market is witnessing strong demand, supported by government policies promoting the replacement of old devices, which is expected to further boost consumer electronics demand [5]. - The global PCB market is anticipated to recover in 2024, with high-layer boards and HDI boards expected to maintain high growth rates in the medium to long term [5]. - The passive components industry is set to grow rapidly due to downstream demand recovery and accelerated domestic substitution, with specific recommendations for companies in the capacitor and inductor sectors [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Valuation - The report notes that the Shenyin Wanguo Electronics Index increased by 2.9% during the review period, ranking 25th among major industries [16]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.88 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, while China's sales were $16.2 billion, up 17% year-on-year [28][30]. 2.2 Memory Chip Prices - Memory chip prices have stabilized after a rebound, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends across different generations [37]. 2.3 Mobile Phone Market - In October 2024, China's mobile phone shipments reached 29.67 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with 5G phones accounting for over 90% of shipments [43][56]. 2.4 Wireless Bluetooth Earphone Market - The global TWS market grew by 15% in Q3 2024, with Apple maintaining a leading market share of 21% [58]. 3. Industry News - The report discusses new export restrictions imposed by the U.S. on China's semiconductor industry, affecting 140 companies, which may impact the supply chain [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronics industry [4]. Core Insights - The investigation into NVIDIA by the State Administration for Market Regulation highlights the strong demand for self-controlled capabilities in the chip sector. This is further emphasized by recent statements from four industry associations recommending cautious procurement of American chips [4]. - The domestic chip market is vast, and there are significant investment opportunities in the self-controlled chip sector, particularly in companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information in chip design, and Woge Optoelectronics in advanced packaging [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - On December 9, 2024, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced an investigation into NVIDIA for potential violations of antitrust laws related to its acquisition of Mellanox Technologies [3]. - The investigation stems from concerns that the acquisition could limit competition in the global and Chinese GPU accelerator markets [3]. Market Trends - The Biden administration has implemented new semiconductor export controls, adding 136 Chinese entities to an "entity list" and increasing restrictions on 24 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and HBM chips [4]. - The electronics sector has shown a performance comparison with the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 28% in the electronics sector from December 2023 to March 2024 [5]. Performance Metrics - The electronics sector has experienced a 1-month decline of 3.56%, a 3-month increase of 46.19%, and a 12-month increase of 20.56% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronics industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with terminal demand showing a mild recovery. The report highlights that global and Chinese semiconductor sales have continued to grow, driven by structural demand from AI and new energy vehicles [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, which may stimulate domestic companies to increase R&D investments in the long run [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Valuation - The report notes that the Shenwan Electronics Index increased by 2.9% from November 25 to December 9, ranking 25th among Shenwan's primary industries [20]. - The semiconductor sector showed the smallest increase at 2.0%, while the components sector had the largest increase at 4.8% during the same period [22]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Semiconductor Sales - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.88 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. Cumulatively, from January to October, sales totaled $502.67 billion, up 18.8% year-on-year [5][31]. - China's semiconductor sales in October were $16.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% and a month-on-month growth of 1% [31][33]. 2.2 Memory Chip Prices - Memory chip prices have stabilized after a rebound from their lows. As of December 9, the average spot prices for DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 were $0.78, $3.77, and $4.75, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -7.14%, -0.53%, and -1.04% [40][41]. 2.3 Mobile Market - In October 2024, domestic smartphone shipments reached 29.67 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a month-on-month increase of 16.96%. 5G smartphones accounted for 90.05% of total shipments [46][54]. - The high-end smartphone market is experiencing strong demand, with global shipments of smartphones priced over $600 increasing by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [54][59]. 2.4 Wireless Bluetooth Earphone Market - The global true wireless stereo (TWS) market grew by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with shipments reaching 92.3 million units. Apple maintained the top position with a 21% market share [61][62]. 2.5 Wearable Device Market - The global wearable wristband device market saw shipments reach 52.9 million units in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3% [67]. 3. Industry News - The U.S. has imposed new export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, with 140 companies added to the entity list, which may impact the supply chain [73].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.33%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market 50 Index fell by 0.11% and 0.37% respectively [1] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6505.17 billion yuan, with a PE ratio of 12.01 and a PB ratio of 1.27 [1] Industry Dynamics - In November, China's automobile sales reached 3.316 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [18] - The global semiconductor market is recovering in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for AI and memory, with revenues reaching 158.2 billion USD, a 17% year-on-year increase [19] - The company Heng Rui Medicine received approval for clinical trials of its drug HRS-4729, aimed at treating obesity [20] Company Updates - Heng Rui Medicine (600276.SH) has received a clinical trial approval for its drug HRS-4729, which is a multi-peptide drug targeting obesity [20] - Gongdong Medical (605369.SH) announced its first employee stock ownership plan, involving the acquisition of up to 1 million shares [23]

策略点评 证券研究报告 多地落实稳楼市政策，销售延续改善态势 房地产市场周报（12.09-12.15） 投资要点 本周观点：在存量政策和增量政策利好的叠加影响下，近日楼市维持 较高热度。虽然受前期需求集中释放以及高基数效应等因素的影响， 上周商品房成交面积环比有所下降，但同比延续增长态势，反映市场 基本面仍在持续改善。从政策面来看，近日各地方政府相继出台支持 政策，如广州、重庆、贵州等地先后优化调整公积金政策，南京宣布 满足特定条件的商品房可解除限售，太原明确继续执行解除各项住房 限制性措施的有关规定、大力开展住房以旧换新活动等。总体而言， 宽松的宏观调控基调为房地产市场提供了较强的支撑，预计后续将有 更多高能级城市推出新政。此外，当前已进入年终业绩冲刺期，各大 房企或将推出一系列促销活动。在政企的共同发力下，预计 12 月份 商品房市场将延续回暖态势。下阶段，房价仍是决定市场拐点的关键 因素，若后续存量二手房能够持续消化并推动置换需求释放，房价在 需求回流的支撑下有望逐步扭转下跌的势头，进而推动房地产市场止 跌回稳。 上周商品房市场高频数据：（1）成交方面，2024 年 12 月 2 日至 2024 年 1 ...

Global Economic and Inflation - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1208.4 points on December 6, 2024, a decrease of 270.00 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in global economic activity[13] - The CRB Commodity Price Index averaged 285.73 points on December 6, 2024, down by 1.57 points from the previous week, reflecting fluctuating inflation levels[19] - The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index was 236.27 points in November 2024, an increase of 121.49 points from the previous month, indicating rising uncertainty in the US economy[15] Domestic Economic and Inflation - China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3% in November 2024, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting stable economic growth[26] - The average price of pork in China was 28.34 yuan/kg on November 27, 2024, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating stable inflation levels[39] - The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China was 100.0668 points in November 2024, an increase of 0.1153 points from the previous month, suggesting positive economic outlook[33] Industrial Production and Investment - The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.45% on December 6, 2024, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week, indicating mixed signals in industrial production[52] - The average daily sales of excavators in China were 9020 units in November 2024, an increase of 1536 units compared to the same period last year, reflecting a strengthening in infrastructure investment[81] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 53.08 million square meters on December 1, 2024, an increase of 12.36 million square meters from the previous week, indicating a recovery in the real estate market[75]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [4][11] Core Viewpoints - The "Trade-in" policy continues to show effects, with November retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars reaching new highs, indicating a strong market recovery [2][10] - In November, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.423 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [6][7] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic retail market reached 52.3% in November, an increase of 11.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Yinlun Holdings, Top Group, Xinquan, Junsheng Electronics, Desay SV, and Baolong Technology due to the positive impact of the trade-in policy and other supportive measures [11] Key Stock Performance - Key stocks and their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2023A, 2024E, and 2025E are as follows: - Yinlun Holdings: EPS 0.74 (PE 23.91), 0.97 (PE 18.24), 1.33 (PE 13.30) - Rating: Buy - Changan Automobile: EPS 1.14 (PE 12.26), 0.88 (PE 15.89), 1.02 (PE 13.71) - Rating: Hold - Junsheng Electronics: EPS 0.77 (PE 20.65), 1.00 (PE 15.90), 1.25 (PE 12.72) - Rating: Buy - Top Group: EPS 1.28 (PE 42.48), 1.71 (PE 31.80), 2.21 (PE 24.60) - Rating: Hold [3][11] Market Trends - The wholesale sales of passenger cars in November reached 2.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6%, marking a historical high [7] - The cumulative wholesale of passenger cars from January to November was 24.115 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7] - The export of passenger cars continued to show strong growth, with November exports reaching 396,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Synchronize with the market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The "Trade-in" policy continues to show effects, with November retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars reaching new highs, indicating a recovery in demand [2][10]. - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.423 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [6][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic retail market reached 52.3% in November, an increase of 11.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the support of the "Trade-in" policy and local replacement subsidies, along with other supportive measures, the automotive sales are expected to maintain stable growth in the fourth quarter [11]. - Key stocks to watch include BYD, Changan Automobile, Yinlun Holdings, Top Group, Xinquan Holdings, Junsheng Electronics, Desay SV, and Baolong Technology [11]. Market Performance - In November, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.94 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [7]. - The cumulative wholesale of passenger cars from January to November was 24.115 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7]. New Energy Vehicle Insights - In November, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.438 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.6% [7]. - The cumulative retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to November reached 9.594 million units, a year-on-year increase of 41.2% [6].