[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/交通运输 证券研究报告 行业周报 [ Table_InvestInfo] 周报：到 2025 年年底，交通运输领域二氧 化碳排放强度较 2020 年降低 5％ [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  一周市场回顾：上证综指下跌，交运跑输大盘，下跌0.7%。2024.5.27-2024.5.31， 交通运输指数(-0.7%)，同期上证综指（-0.1%）。子板块绝对周涨跌幅中，仓储 物流（+3.8%）、航运（+2.1%）、港口（+0.2%）、公交（+0.0%）、铁路运输 （-0.7%）、高速公路（-0.8%）、跨境物流（-0.9%）、航空运输（-1.6%）、公 路货运（-2.8%）、快递（-3.6%）。 交运一周专题：油运价格跟踪，蒙煤运输情况跟踪，疫后全国公路货运车流量  跟踪。  航运数据观察：2024 年 5 月 31 日，SCFI 指数收于 3044.77 点，环比前一期 （2024.5.24）+12.6%；2024年5月31日，BDI收于1815点，环比前一周（2024.5.24， 下同）+1.0% ；2024 年 5 月 31 日，BDTI 日度 ...

Equity – Asia Research 机械24年中期策略,重视底部边际变化与具全球竞争力板块 Appendix: Chinese and English Translation Comparison Table 赵玥炜Yuewei Zhao yw.zhao@htisec.com 王坤阳Kunyang Wang ky.wang@htisec.com 赵靖博Jingbo Zhao jb.zhao@htisec.com ...

Mengxuan Zhou mx.zhou@htisec.com 单季度看，23Q1-24Q1 分别实现营收 8.1/14.9/16.3/21.9/8.2 亿元，同增 6.2%/17.1%/9.9%/16.9%/1.8% ； 净 利 润 0.5/1.3/1.7/2.5/0.5 亿 元 ， 同 比 变 化 +0.5%/+20.0%/+8.2%/+10.5%/-8.4%。 大宗渠道表现亮眼。分渠道看，经销/直营/大宗/海外业务分别实现收入 31.2/4.7/20.1/1.5 亿 元 ， 同 增 7.8%/18.5%/21.2%/31.9% ， 营 收 占 比 分 别 为 51.1%/7.7%/32.8%/2.5%。毛利率分别为 35.0%/68.0%/37.7%/18.2%，同比变化 +0.2pct/+0.5pct/-2.9pct/+6.1pct。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_FinanceInfo] | 2022A | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an 'Outperform' rating to the company, indicating that the stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [3][22]. Core Insights - The company has officially commenced its 10,000-ton carbon fiber project, which is divided into two phases. The first phase involves the construction of two spinning lines and two carbonization lines, with an investment of approximately RMB 1.6 billion, aiming for an annual production capacity of 4,800 tons of high-performance carbon fiber. The second phase will further enhance capacity to 8,000 tons of carbon fiber and 23,840 tons of polyacrylonitrile powder, with a total investment of around RMB 2.9 billion [1]. - The carbon fiber project utilizes advanced technologies such as aqueous phase polymerization and dry-jet wet spinning, ensuring stable production and cost-effectiveness, which enhances its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [57][53]. - The company is focusing on developing downstream applications of carbon fiber, targeting industries such as aerospace, military, automotive, and new building materials, marking a strategic shift from propane dehydrogenation to high-performance polymer composite materials [16]. Financial Summary - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 281 million, RMB 511 million, and RMB 1,075 million, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.18, RMB 0.32, and RMB 0.67 [3]. - The company's revenue is expected to show a slight decline in 2023, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with projected revenues of RMB 27,123 million in 2023 and RMB 33,004 million by 2026 [54]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 5.6% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2026, reflecting operational efficiency and cost management [54].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/农业 证券研究报告 行业专题报告 2024年06月04日 该如何理解和预判猪周期？——从历史到 现在 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 从能繁母猪预测猪价的理论与现实。能繁母猪是猪价预测中最受关注的指标，但  其与猪价、屠宰量等都不存在显著的相关性。这是因为从母猪到商品猪过程漫长， 期间生产效率变化也会对供给产生影响。假定能繁母猪 4100 万头不变，采用各 月份平均生产效率指标测算，则供给的最高值较最低值高出了14.4%。 出栏节奏、冻品库存、进出口等也会对猪价产生影响。除了能繁、生产效率之外，  出栏节奏也会对猪价产生影响，包括季节性节奏调整和二育。根据我们测算，二 育比例稳步提升过程中，仅在初期和末期对于供给的影响大，期间的影响偏小。  谁是猪周期的主导因素？1、年内猪价波动由生产规律主导。回顾猪周期历史， 猪价在大部分年份都会在4月之后出现上涨的趋势，因为4月是生产效率主导下 的供给高点，但却是消费淡季，4月之后的消费恢复而供给压力减小，猪价往往 上行。2、不同年份的同一月份之间的猪价变化则主要是由能繁母猪主导，同一 月份之间的生产效率往往相 ...

Equity – Asia Research 万华化学 ：五月月报 (600309.CH) Wanhua Chemical Group: Monthly Report in May 孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun xh.sun@htisec.com 2024年6月5日 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(PleaseseeappendixforEnglishtranslationofthedisclaimer) 目录 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/造纸轻工/轻工制造 证券研究报告 欧派家居（603833）公司年报点评 [ Table_InvestInfo] 23 年利润同增 13%，控本提效效果显著 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  事件：公司发布23年报和24年一季报，23年实现营业收入227.8亿元，同 比增长 1.3%；归母净利润 30.4亿元，同比增长 12.9%，归母净利率 13.3%， 同比增加1.4pct；扣非归母净利润27.5亿元，同比增长5.9%，扣非归母净利 率12.1%，同比增加0.5pct。  单季度来看，23Q1- 24Q1公司实现营业收入35.7/62.7/67.2/62.2/36.2亿元，同 比变化-13.8%/+13.0%/+2.2%/+0.1%/+1.4%；归母净利润1.5/9.8/11.8/ 7.3/2.2亿 元，同比变化-39.8%/ +28.1%/+21.1%/+4.0%/+43.0%。  23年公司综合毛利率为34.2%，同比增加2.5pct。期间费用率为18.4%，同比 增长1.1pct。其中，销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为8.7%/6.2%/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's energy storage business achieved significant growth in 2023, with revenues of approximately 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 256%, and expects continued growth in 2024, primarily driven by the domestic market [14][54] - The charging pile business also showed strong performance, with revenues of about 850 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 99%, and is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 40% in 2024 [18][45] - The overall revenue for the first quarter of 2024 was 599 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.8%, with net profit growth lagging behind revenue growth due to increased depreciation and expenses [49] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,651 million yuan in 2023, 3,522 million yuan in 2024, 4,681 million yuan in 2025, and 5,840 million yuan in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 76%, 33%, 33%, and 25% respectively [51] - Net profit is expected to grow from 401 million yuan in 2023 to 804 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 80%, 27%, 23%, and 27% respectively [51] - The company’s EPS is projected to increase from 1.30 yuan in 2023 to 2.60 yuan in 2026 [51] Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 8.01 billion yuan (1.11 billion USD) and a current price of 25.76 yuan, with a target price set at 44.88 yuan [2] - The company’s stock has a PE ratio that is projected to decrease from 20 in 2023 to 10 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 16.67, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 34.76 billion for 2023, representing an 11.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of RMB 2.64 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year [10][11]. - The growth in sales is driven by upgrades in electric two-wheeler products and differentiation in the battery business, with total sales of scooters and e-bikes reaching 16.52 million units, a 17.9% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - The battery business also saw a revenue increase of 19.7% year-on-year to RMB 4.63 billion, supported by R&D investments and supply chain integration [10][11]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue from electric two-wheelers and related accessories was RMB 34.54 billion, a 13.6% increase from 2022, with H2 revenue at RMB 17.50 billion, up 7.0% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 7.6% in 2023, with a slight increase in net profit margin by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4][9]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 16.9%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous year, attributed to product mix expansion [4][9]. Earnings Forecast - Projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 3.15 billion, RMB 3.73 billion, and RMB 4.20 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.4%, 18.2%, and 12.8% [2][11]. - The company’s revenue is expected to reach RMB 40.00 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.1% [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 27.41 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance saw a slight decline in 2023, with revenue of RMB 25.12 billion, down 2.18% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 1.65 billion, a decrease of 28.42% [3][11]. - The decline was attributed to lower product prices and capacity utilization, alongside negative investment income and fair value changes [11]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency strategies to improve operational quality, achieving a gross profit margin of 17.66%, up 1.83 percentage points [3][11]. - The company maintains a strong position in the anode market, with sales exceeding 360,000 tons, a 9.52% increase year-on-year, despite a revenue drop of 15.96% [12]. - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 at RMB 1.53 billion, RMB 2.29 billion, and RMB 2.51 billion, respectively, reflecting the company's robust operational capabilities [13]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 25.12 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.18% and a net profit of RMB 1.65 billion, down 28.42% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin improved to 17.66%, with net cash flows from operating activities increasing by 55.49% to RMB 5.26 billion [11]. - The company’s anode sales reached 41,000 tons, up 26.07% year-on-year, with revenue of RMB 12.31 billion, a 19.52% increase [12]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 22.29 billion, reflecting an 11.3% decrease, followed by a recovery in 2025 and 2026 [5][9]. Production and Market Position - The company solidified its leading position in the anode market, with a global market share of approximately 22% and an end-of-year production capacity of 495,000 tons/year [12]. - The report anticipates that the company will ship 450,000 tons of anode materials in 2024, supported by ongoing capacity expansions [12][13]. - The company is actively increasing its self-supply of graphitization, with new production lines expected to come online in 2024 [12].