Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yunnan Baiyao with a target price of RMB 73.36 for 2024, based on a 28X PE multiple [5][15] Core Views - Yunnan Baiyao is entering a new reform stage, focusing on its core business and improving quality and efficiency to drive growth [5] - The company's pharmaceutical business is the core sector, leveraging OTC channels and brand advantages to drive rapid growth [2][11] - The health products business is exploring existing potential and actively expanding diversified channels, with Yunnan Baiyao toothpaste maintaining a 24.6% domestic market share [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine resources division ensures strategic supply advantages, with Sanqi herb external sales revenue up 81% YoY [2][13] - The company has a clear short, medium, and long-term R&D strategy, focusing on innovation to drive sustainable long-term development [3][14] Financial Performance - In 2023, Yunnan Baiyao achieved revenue of RMB 39.11 billion, up 7.19% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.09 billion, up 36.41% YoY [2][10] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.77 billion, up 2.49% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.70 billion, up 12.12% YoY [2][10] - The pharmaceutical business achieved revenue of RMB 6.48 billion in 2023, up 8.16% YoY, with core products showing steady growth [2][11] - The health products business achieved revenue of RMB 6.42 billion in 2023, up 6.50% YoY [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine resources division achieved external revenue of RMB 1.71 billion in 2023, up about 22% YoY [2][13] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of RMB 43.23 billion, RMB 46.33 billion, and RMB 49.45 billion, with YoY growth rates of 10.5%, 7.2%, and 6.7% respectively [4][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 4.68 billion, RMB 5.21 billion, and RMB 5.73 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 14.3%, 11.4%, and 10.1% respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 2.62, RMB 2.92, and RMB 3.21 for 2024-2026 [5] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 26.5% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2026 [4][5] Business Segments - The pharmaceutical business saw strong growth in core products, with aerosol revenue exceeding RMB 1.7 billion, up 15.27% YoY, and branded traditional Chinese medicine products like Pudilan anti-inflammatory tablets and Huoxiang Zhengqi liquid growing rapidly [2][11] - The health products business is focusing on oral health and care products, with core product Yangyuanqing achieving sales exceeding RMB 300 million, up 36% YoY [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine resources division is focusing on regional resource advantages, ensuring supply stability and building a leading platform in the industry [2][13] R&D Strategy - The company has established four R&D centers and is focusing on short-term projects like secondary development of listed products, medium-term projects in innovative traditional Chinese medicine, and long-term projects in innovative drug R&D [3][14] - Short-term R&D projects include Gongxuening capsule secondary development and Qixuekang oral liquid, which have made progress [3][14] - Medium-term R&D focuses on transdermal patch formulations and trauma field development [3][14] - Long-term R&D is centered on innovative drug transformation and exclusive products, with a focus on nuclear medicine [3][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but provides recommendations for specific companies within the precious metals and industrial metals sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates unchanged for an extended period, impacting precious metals prices. As of May 24, 2024, spot gold and silver prices were $2343/oz and $30.59/oz, with weekly changes of -2.49% and +3.07% respectively [2]. - Industrial metals are viewed positively, with LME copper, aluminum, and tin prices showing fluctuations. As of May 24, 2024, LME copper was priced at $10,334/ton, with a recent decline of 3.6% [2]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium products, maintain high import levels, with April 2024 lithium ore imports at approximately 441,310 tons, a 10% month-on-month increase and a 32% year-on-year increase [3]. - Rare earth and minor metals saw a price increase in antimony, which rose by 6.7% during the reporting period [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the potential for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates stable, which is crucial for gold and silver prices. The recent price movements indicate a decline in gold and an increase in silver [2][3]. Industrial Metals - The macroeconomic environment remains optimistic for industrial metals, with LME aluminum prices increasing by 1.4% during the reporting period. However, copper prices have faced downward pressure due to a strong dollar and weak domestic demand [2][3]. Energy Metals - Lithium product imports remain robust, with significant year-on-year growth. The market for lithium remains tight, with prices expected to stabilize in the short term [3]. Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Antimony prices have increased, while other rare earth elements like praseodymium and neodymium have seen slight declines. The report suggests monitoring companies involved in these sectors for potential investment opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of real estate and elderly care services, highlighting the growing demand for elderly housing as the population ages. The elderly population aged 65 and above in China has increased from 3.6% in 1964 to 15.4% in 2023, indicating a significant demographic shift [2][3][32]. - The report identifies various overseas models of elderly housing, including the differentiated community model in the US, the residential and institutional models in Japan, and the home care and nursing home models in Germany, showcasing diverse approaches to elderly care [2][16][21]. - The future demand for elderly housing in China is projected to be substantial, with potential needs for 1.52 billion to 5.75 billion square meters of new elderly housing by 2050, based on current trends and assumptions [2][42][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Concepts of Elderly Housing - Elderly housing is defined as a new business model that integrates real estate with various services for the elderly, including healthcare, entertainment, and financial services, aimed at providing comprehensive care [11][12][14]. 2. Overseas Models of Elderly Housing - The US has three main models: the differentiated community model, the Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC) model, and the REITs model. Japan's model includes residential and institutional facilities, while Germany's model consists of home care, assisted living, and nursing homes [16][21][26]. 3. Current Status and Future Development of Elderly Housing in China - China is transitioning towards a heavily aged society, with the elderly dependency ratio rising significantly. The current number of elderly care beds is insufficient, with only 8.22 million beds available as of the end of 2022, indicating a pressing need for more facilities [32][40][42]. 4. Policy Framework for Elderly Care - The report outlines the establishment of a policy framework for elderly care, focusing on creating barrier-free environments, repurposing existing resources for elderly facilities, and promoting community-based elderly care services [3][4]. 5. Main Models of Elderly Housing in China - The report discusses various models of elderly housing in China, including permanent and seasonal living arrangements, emphasizing the need for a combination of home, community, and institutional care [3][5]. 6. Specific Product Analysis - Taikang Home - Taikang Home employs the CCRC model, offering a unique combination of medical and elderly care services, with flexible pricing options that include insurance and monthly fees [3][6]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have established a foothold in elderly services, including developers and property management firms, as they are likely to benefit from the growing demand in the elderly housing sector [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an 'Outperform' rating for the insurance industry, indicating optimism about the long-term growth of leading insurers [2][16][19]. Core Insights - In April, life insurance original premium income grew by 10.0% year-on-year, health insurance by 1.8%, and property & casualty insurance by 2.3%, all showing a deceleration compared to March [2][16]. - The report highlights the resilience of liabilities and improving asset quality, with low valuations providing a high safety margin for investors [19]. - The growth in life insurance premiums is attributed to strong market savings demand and improved continuous installment premiums from previous new policies, despite facing short-term pressure on new policy premium growth due to high base effects from the previous year [16][17]. Summary by Category Life Insurance - April's life insurance original premium volume reached RMB 257.8 billion, up 10.0% year-on-year, but down 8.5 percentage points from March [2][16]. - From January to April 2024, life insurance original premiums totaled RMB 2.059 trillion, reflecting a 12.1% year-on-year increase [2][16]. - Policyholder investment payments increased by 1% year-on-year, with a notable 64% increase in unit-linked insurance in April [2][16]. Health Insurance - Health insurance premiums in April increased by 1.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points from March [2][17]. - From January to April 2024, health insurance premiums grew by 7.2%, compared to 5.1% in the same period in 2023 [2][17]. - The report suggests significant growth potential for health insurance through the establishment of a comprehensive health ecosystem integrating various services [17]. Property & Casualty Insurance - Property & casualty insurance premiums in April grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with both auto and non-auto insurance experiencing a slowdown [2][18]. - From January to April 2024, property & casualty insurers' premiums reached RMB 616.6 billion, up 4.5% on a comparable basis [2][18]. - The report notes that the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to enhance the growth momentum of auto insurance premiums due to their higher average premiums compared to traditional vehicles [18].

Group 1: Market Insights - Recent roadshows indicate that Chinese stocks are still at a low valuation level, with Singaporean investors showing more interest than American investors[4] - From mid-April to present, some long-term U.S. investors have increased their holdings in China, shifting from low or no positions to flat or low positions[4] - Education, tourism, and gaming sectors are receiving slightly more attention than e-commerce and local life sectors[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The e-commerce sector, particularly Pinduoduo, is expected to remain resilient in the domestic market despite short-term fluctuations due to the U.S. election year[2] - Meituan is favored in the e-commerce sector due to a slowdown in competition and reduced losses in new businesses[2] - Concerns remain regarding Alibaba's market share decline and whether its advertising products can improve commission rates[3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a consensus that the regulatory environment for Chinese internet companies may slightly relax during the U.S. election year[2] - Investors are increasingly worried about the long-term growth potential of Chinese internet companies and the competitive landscape, especially in e-commerce and local life sectors[18] - The overall sentiment among Singaporean investors is more positive compared to their American counterparts, who express a long-term lack of faith in Chinese stocks[18]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture industry, particularly in the pig farming sector, suggesting a recovery from previous difficulties [2]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector experienced a significant increase in output in 2023, with a total of 170 million pigs slaughtered, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.5% [2][8]. - Despite the growth in output, the sector faced substantial losses, with major companies collectively losing 14.1 billion yuan in 2023, and the losses continuing into the first quarter of 2024 [2][13]. - Capital expenditures in the pig farming sector decreased by 14.1% in 2023, indicating a potential slowdown in output growth moving forward [2][17]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - In 2023, listed companies in the pig farming sector saw a total output of 170 million pigs, with a market share of 23.7% [2][8]. - The top 20 pig farming companies, including non-listed firms, had a total output of 200 million pigs, marking a 21% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a slowdown in growth, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase in output among 18 listed companies, and several companies reporting declines [2][8]. - The sector faced significant financial pressure, with total losses reaching 14.1 billion yuan in 2023 and 6 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024 [2][13]. - Capital expenditures fell to 40.2 billion yuan in 2023, down 14.1% from the previous year, indicating a potential slowdown in future output growth [2][17]. Feed Industry - The feed industry faced challenges in 2023, with total production increasing by 6.6% to 320 million tons, but the pig feed market contracted due to low prices and financial pressures on farmers [2][23]. - Major feed companies, such as Haida Group and New Hope, reported sales growth, with Haida's sales increasing by 11.7% [2][27]. - The overall profitability of feed businesses improved, with many companies experiencing a rise in gross margins [2][27]. Poultry - The poultry industry saw a decline in prices throughout 2023, with a recovery beginning in early 2024 [3][36]. - Companies focused on upstream operations, like Yisheng and Minhe, showed improved performance in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023 [3][39]. - The overall performance of poultry companies is expected to improve in 2024 compared to the previous year [3][39]. Seed Industry - The seed sector experienced good revenue and profit performance in 2023, but growth slowed in the first quarter of 2024 [3][41]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring advancements in genetically modified crops, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [3][41]. Animal Health - The animal health industry faced challenges due to low demand from farmers, leading to increased bad debt losses for some companies [3][41]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the domestic pig vaccine market if the African swine fever vaccine is successfully launched [3][41]. Pet Food - The pet food sector showed strong performance in 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, with significant improvements in export business and domestic brand development [3][41]. - Major companies are expected to continue focusing on building domestic brands and optimizing product structures for better revenue and profit performance [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report suggests to continuously pay attention to Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group, Suzhou Jinhong Gas, Xi'An Shaangu Power, Hunan Kaimeite Gases, and Guangdong Huate Gas [5]. Core Insights - In May, liquid oxygen prices slightly increased, while liquid nitrogen and liquid argon prices slightly decreased. The average price for liquid oxygen was RMB 444 per ton, up 0.31% month-on-month (MoM), and down 5.7% year-on-year (YoY). Liquid nitrogen's average price was RMB 458 per ton, down RMB 10.06 per ton MoM, and down RMB 84.68 per ton YoY. Liquid argon's average price was RMB 1072.68 per ton, down 4.48% MoM, and down 1.04% YoY [2][13]. - The report highlights that Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group has accelerated its equipment exports and is developing its gas business in multiple fields. The company won a large air separation equipment order for the European and American markets, providing 50000-grade air separation equipment to a Mexican customer [4][13]. - Guangzhou Huate Gas's intelligent equipment manufacturing base project held a groundbreaking ceremony in May, focusing on advanced semiconductor manufacturing requirements [5][13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Liquid oxygen: Average price RMB 444 per ton, up 0.31% MoM, down 5.7% YoY [2]. - Liquid nitrogen: Average price RMB 458 per ton, down RMB 10.06 per ton MoM, down RMB 84.68 per ton YoY [2]. - Liquid argon: Average price RMB 1072.68 per ton, down 4.48% MoM, down 1.04% YoY [2]. - Helium: Bulk 40L high-purity helium was RMB 736.87 per bottle, down RMB 14.26 per bottle MoM, down RMB 921.07 per bottle YoY [2]. - Xenon: Average price RMB 40200 per cubic meter, down RMB 1100 per cubic meter MoM, down RMB 65400 per cubic meter YoY [2]. - Krypton: Average price RMB 400 per cubic meter, down RMB 31.33 per cubic meter MoM, down RMB 791.94 per cubic meter YoY [2]. - Neon: Average price RMB 137.07 per cubic meter, up RMB 0.9 per ton MoM, down RMB 347.61 per cubic meter YoY [2]. Operating Load Rate - As of May 29, 2024, China's industrial gas weekly operating load rate was 67.9%, up 0.38 percentage points MoM [3][13]. Important Events - Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yidao New Energy, focusing on gas and PV product applications, new energy development, and joint technology R&D [4][13]. - The company has also established a strategic partnership with Lingang Science and Technology Investment Company to leverage strengths in gas services and hydrogen energy technology R&D [4][13].

Investment Rating - The agriculture sector has a current investment rating of "Underperform" as it fell by 3.1% this week, ranking 28th among SW industries [48]. Core Insights - Hog prices are on the rise, with the average price reaching RMB 17.4/kg, up 7.9% week-on-week, while slaughtering volume in April has decreased significantly, indicating a tight supply and a solid foundation for future price increases [48]. - The aquatic feed industry is expected to benefit from rising fresh fish prices, with a focus on Haid Group as a key player [48]. - The commercialization of genetically modified organisms (GMO) is progressing, with significant opportunities for companies like Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group and Yuan Longping High-Tech [48]. - The pet food sector is showing strong performance, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Gambol Pet Group and Yantai China Pet Foods [48]. Summary by Relevant Sections Hog Breeding - The average hog price is RMB 17.4/kg, up 7.9% week-on-week, with piglet prices at RMB 745 each, up 5.7%, and sow prices at RMB 1592 each, up 1.1% [48]. - The slaughtering volume in April was 25.63 million, down 10.5% year-on-year, indicating a tight supply [48]. - The end of Q1 hog inventory was 410 million, down 5.2% year-on-year, suggesting a historical low supply level [48]. Aquatic Feed - Fresh fish prices are rising, with the average price for tilapia at RMB 5.7/kg, up 30% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the aquatic feed industry [48]. - The aquatic feed sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [48]. Broiler Chickens - The average price for white broiler chicks is RMB 3.0 each, down 1.5%, while live chicken prices are RMB 3.7 each, down 3.1% [48]. - The decline in breeding stock is expected to tighten chick supply, maintaining high prices [48]. Pet Food - The pet food sector is experiencing strong sales growth, particularly in overseas markets, with recommendations to focus on companies like Gambol Pet Group and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology [48]. GMO and Seed Industry - The commercialization of GMO is advancing, with significant developments in the approval of GMO seeds, suggesting new opportunities for companies with technological advantages [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued sectors with stable growth and high dividends, particularly in e-commerce and Meituan [4][17]. Core Insights - The cosmetics sector has been lackluster in consumer discretionary spending since the beginning of the year, with domestic brands gaining market share. The 618 sales event highlighted a return to rational consumption, with domestic brands leading on platforms like Tmall and TikTok [1][16]. - Guangdong's health commission has expanded the range of departments and doctors authorized to perform medical beauty injections, indicating a regulatory adaptation to market demand. This change is expected to benefit downstream institutions more than upstream materials [3][17]. Summary by Sections 1. 618 Sales Performance - During the 618 promotion, domestic brands like PROYA COSMETICS and TIMAGE achieved significant sales, with PROYA COSMETICS and foreign brands like Lancôme surpassing RMB 100 million in sales within 30 minutes on May 20 [2][16]. - The sales data indicates that domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with PROYA COSMETICS leading in skincare and TIMAGE in makeup categories [2][5]. 2. Regulatory Changes in Medical Beauty - The Guangdong health commission's new regulations allow a broader range of medical professionals to perform injection treatments, including laser and filler injections. This regulatory shift reflects an adaptation to market demand and is expected to enhance operational capabilities in the medical beauty sector [3][17]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring consumer trends in Q2, with a focus on e-commerce and Meituan. It highlights potential opportunities in the jewelry sector due to recent pressures on terminal demand and falling gold jewelry consumption [4][17]. - Specific A-share recommendations include Zhejiang China Commodities City Group, Chongqing Department Store, and PROYA COSMETICS, while H-share recommendations include Alibaba Group and Meituan [4][18].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业周报 [ Table_InvestInfo] 国务院印发《2024-2025 年节能降碳行动 方案》，5 月 PMI 为 49.5% [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  板块表现：从各行业横向比较来看，2024年第22周（2024年5月27日至2024 年 5 月 31 日），机械设备行业相对沪综指周累计超额收益为负，在所有行业中 排名第6，周累计超额收益为-0.14pct。2024年至今机械设备行业年累计超额收 益为-10.36pct。  宏观数据：4月份工业生产回升向好，规模以上工业企业效益持续恢复；5月份 PMI为 49.5%，制造业景气有所回落。根据国家统计局官网，1）规模以上工业 企业利润：4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润由 3 月份同比下降 3.5%转为增长 4.0%，增速回升7.5个百分点，企业当月利润明显改善。1-4月份规上工业企业 利润同比增长4.3%，增速与1-3月份持平，继续保持平稳增长。1-4月份装备制 造业利润同比增长 16.3%，增速高于全部规上工业 12.0 个百分点，拉动规上工 业利润增长4. ...