[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观周报 房地产：销售偏稳，投资偏弱 ——国内高频指标跟踪（2025 年第 1 期） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年首周经济运行整体平稳，局部波动受假期错位等因素影响，后续仍 需政策推动。消费端汽车消费稳健，非耐用品消费短期波动，服务消费呈现 分化。投资领域基建有望加速，地产销售受跨年影响回落，土地市场再度转 向平淡。进出口方面海外数据向好，出口有望保持强势。生产环节钢铁偏弱， 煤电需求有所支撑。库存方面钢材补库缓慢，物价领域食品价格下降，建材 价格回落。资金利率下行，美元指数上升。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策不及预期。 | 图 1 | 海通宏观生产同步指标与工业增加值同比走势（%） | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 2 | 海通宏观出口同步指标与出口金额同比走势（%） | 3 | | 图 3 | 海通宏观消费同步指标与消费同比走势（%） | 3 | | 图 4 | 当周日均销量:乘用车:厂家零售（万辆，4WMA） 4 | | | 图 5 | 中国轻纺 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观周报 2025 年 1 月 5 日 美元指数继续走高 ——海外经济政策跟踪 全球大类资产表现。上周（2024.12.27-2025.1.3），全球大类资产价格中， 主要经济体股市下跌。其中，恒生指数下跌 1.6%，标普 500 下跌 0.5%；IPE 布油期货上涨 3.6%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨 2.0%，伦敦金现上涨 0.7%；10 年期美债收益率较前一周回落 2BP 至 4.60%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格上升 0.53%；美元指数较前一周上涨 0.8%，报收 108.9，日元升值，美元兑日元 收 157.3，人民币贬值，美元兑人民币汇率收 7.3。 经济：美国方面：12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 继续回升；12 月 28 日当周初次申 请失业金人数有所回落；10 月 20 大中城市房价同比继续回落。 通胀预期相对稳定。截至 1 月 3 日，美国 5 年期通胀预期为 2.40%，较前一 周回升 2BP，10 年期通胀预期较上周持平，为 2.34%。市场仍预期美联储年 内降息 25BP。截至 1 月 3 日，市场预期 2025 年美联储 5 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/金融/银行 证券研究报告 行业周报 周报：1 月微盘股回调，资金寻求避险 投资要点：1 月微盘股回调，资金涌入银行寻求避险。银行股凭借低 估值和高股息的优势吸引力持续上升。建议重点关注杭州银行、江苏 银行、齐鲁银行、苏州银行、招商银行和沪农商行。 近期表现回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] [Table_Summary 近期行业观点：结合近期落地的政策，我们认为整体利好银行板块，息差有望 保持稳定，营收增速有望逐步企稳，利润增速有望维持现有水平，不良率保持 低位，拨备覆盖率保持高位，重点关注杭州银行（资产质量向好，低估值高安 全边际）、江苏银行（利润增速维持高位，资产质量优异）、齐鲁银行（资产质 量向好，低估值高安全边际）、苏州银行（资产质量向好，规模较快增长）、招 商银行（零售业务持续向好，资产质量优异）和沪农商行（地理位置优越，资 产质量优异）。 1 月微盘股回调，资金涌入银行板块寻求避险。2025 年 1 月 3 日，微盘股指数 日内跌超 4%。在 A 股市场中，1 月微盘股通常呈现出欠佳态势，部分场内资金 倾 ...

Market Performance - In 2024, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 39,894 points, reflecting a 19% increase for the year[3] - The upward trend in the Japanese stock market was driven by a strong U.S. economy, yen depreciation, and corporate earnings growth[3] Economic Outlook - Japan's real GDP growth is projected to be 1% in 2025, slightly above potential GDP growth[4] - Core inflation in Japan is expected to remain above 2% throughout the year, with core CPI rising to 2.4% by November 2024[4] Corporate Performance - Corporate earnings are anticipated to reach new highs in FY2024, leading to improved capital expenditures in 2025[4] - The Japanese government plans to invest 10 trillion yen in AI and semiconductor industries from 2025 to 2030[4] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with a potential increase of 0.25% twice in 2025[6] - The timing and frequency of BOJ rate hikes will be closely monitored, especially in light of U.S. inflation expectations[6] Currency and Exchange Rates - The USD/JPY exchange rate is forecasted to fluctuate between 150-170 yen in 2025 due to ongoing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials[7] - Despite a potential tightening of Japanese monetary policy, the yen may lack significant upward momentum against a strong dollar[7] Sector Opportunities - The AI and semiconductor sectors are expected to drive growth across various industries, including retail, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing[10] - Japanese companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks, with an average dividend payout ratio below 40%[11]

[Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略周报 2025 年 01 月 04 日 岁末年初风格有何特征？ [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心结论：①历史上岁末年初大盘价值多占优，但与全年风格方向相关不大， 盈利相对趋势才是风格决定因素。②当前政策积极但基本面修复尚需确认， 市场短期处震荡休整，红利资产推动价值风格占优。③中期稳增长政策推动 基本面回暖，市场趋势望向上，基本面更优的科技和中高端制造或推动成长 回归。 历史上岁末年初大盘价值风格多占优。历史上岁末年初大盘价值风格多占优， 背后源自政策和资金层面的催化。岁末年初期间大盘价值占优一方面是源于 政策的催化。年末 A 股市场处在业绩真空期，同时也是重大会议召开和宏观 政策出台的窗口期，政策层面的催化往往推动大盘价值风格占优。另一方面， 资金面可能也是影响岁末年初风格的因素。A 股市场上公募基金等机构投资 者通常以年度作为考核周期，因此每年岁末年初的时候机构投资者博弈调仓 行为大多增加，而大盘价值板块市值大、流动性好，便于机构短时间收集筹 码，往往受到机构的青睐。 年初风格并非定全年方 ...

Equity – Asia Research 2 一级市场：（1） 12月北交所IPO企业3家，共募集资金5.1亿元，相较11月 保持稳定；（2）12月北交所IPO审核已受理31家，已问询9家，上市委会 议通过3家，提交注册1家，注册2家，中止10家，终止2家；（3）12月新 三板日均成交额与成交量较11月小幅上升。 二级市场：（1） 12月宽基指数多数下跌，其中北证50跌幅较大；（2） 12月北证中美容护理、国防军工行业跌幅较小，惠丰钻石、威博液压等个 股涨幅靠前；（3）12月北证交易情绪高位回落，市盈率下降；（4）12月 北证主题基金规模达133亿元，产品整体表现回调。 要闻跟踪：（1） 12月北交所发布三项债券业务指南、专项品种公司债券 指引，并建立上市公司息披露评价体系；（2）12月多家公司发布回购、 股东增持、投资者关系活动记录等公告。 风险提示：北交所流动性不足风险。 目录 1. 一级市场：12月北交所IPO数量保持稳定 Presentation：北交所首例回购增持专项贷款落地——北交所研究月 报-20250104 First Repurchase and Increase Holding Spe ...

研究报告 Research Report 3 Jan 2025 中国必需消费 China (A-share) Staples 中国消费行业 2025 年 1 月投资策略报告：基本面改善前先关注估值修复 Valuation precedes improvement in fundamentals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 古井贡酒 | | Neutral | | 贵州茅台 | Outperform 今世缘 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 迎驾贡酒 | | Outperform | | 五粮液 | Outperform 燕京啤酒 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 安琪酵母 | | Outperform | | 海天味业 | Outperform 重庆啤酒 | | Outperform | | 山西汾酒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on railway and urban rail investments, suggesting that companies like CRRC Corporation, China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation, and Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. are likely to benefit from high investment levels and equipment updates [7]. Core Insights - In 2024, national railway fixed assets investment is projected to reach RMB 850.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with 3,113 km of new lines expected to be operational, including 2,457 km of high-speed rail [2][27]. - The 2025 targets include maintaining stable railway safety, achieving a passenger volume of 4.28 billion (up 4.9% YoY), and a cargo volume of 4.03 billion tons (up 1.1%), alongside RMB 590 billion in infrastructure investment and 2,600 km of new lines [3][28]. - Urban rail transit is expected to see annual new lines exceeding 1,000 km during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with 953.04 km of new lines projected to be operational in 2024 and total passenger volume expected to surpass 32 billion [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant policy shift aimed at promoting a unified transport market, encouraging private capital participation in railway construction, and reforming natural monopoly sectors [4][30]. - Railway passenger volume is anticipated to grow by 11.7% YoY to 4.3 billion in 2024, while cargo volume is expected to increase by 3% to 5.18 billion tons [4][30]. Summary by Sections Railway Investment - The report indicates that the national railway fixed assets investment for 2024 is set at RMB 850.6 billion, a rise of 11.3% compared to the previous year, with a total of 3,113 km of new lines, including 2,457 km of high-speed rail [2][27]. Urban Rail Transit - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, it is projected that annual new urban rail lines will exceed 1,000 km, with 953.04 km expected to be operational in 2024 and total passenger volume anticipated to exceed 32 billion [4][29]. Industry Policy - The report discusses the issuance of opinions by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council aimed at accelerating the construction of a unified transport market and promoting reforms in natural monopoly sectors [4][30]. Demand for Railway Services - The expected growth in railway passenger and cargo volumes for 2024 is highlighted, with passenger volume projected to increase by 11.7% YoY to 4.3 billion and cargo volume by 3% to 5.18 billion tons [4][30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to RoboSense, indicating an expected relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [20]. Core Insights - RoboSense held the "Hello Robot" 2025 AI Robotics Global Launch Event on January 3, 2025, unveiling three new digital LiDAR models (EM4, E1R, and AIRY) and several incremental robotic components [1][8]. - The new digital LiDAR products significantly enhance automotive and robotic sensing capabilities, showcasing RoboSense's technological expertise and development capabilities [2][9]. - The strategic expansion from automotive LiDAR to robotics opens diversified opportunities, enhancing product adaptability and market coverage while supporting the future development of intelligent robots and unmanned systems [4][11]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - RoboSense launched three new digital LiDAR models and multiple robotic components at the 2025 AI Robotics Global Launch Event [1][8]. Digital LiDAR Products - EM4: The world's first 1,000-line ultra-long-range LiDAR with a 600-meter detection range and 1080-line resolution [2][9]. - E1R: The world's first solid-state digital LiDAR, compact with a 130°×90° field of view, suitable for various mobile robot applications [2][9]. - AIRY: A 192-line compact digital LiDAR designed for robotics, offering a 360°×90° field of view [2][9]. Incremental Robotic Components - Active Camera: A fusion sensing device that enhances robotic vision precision and versatility [3][10]. - Papert 2.0: A second-generation dexterous hand with 20 degrees of freedom and a maximum load capacity of 5 kilograms [3][10]. - DC-G1 Domain Controller: A highly integrated and energy-efficient controller supporting various real-time sensing models [3][10]. - LA-8000 Joint Motor: A high-power-density motor suitable for humanoid robot leg joints [3][10]. - FS-3D Force Tactile Sensor: Designed for end-motion control in legged robots [3][10]. Strategic Expansion - RoboSense's expansion into the robotics domain reflects a decade of expertise in automotive LiDAR, broadening its technological layout and application boundaries [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Kingsoft Software (3888) with a target price of HKD 46.85 per share, based on a 2025 PE of 35x [4][18] Core Views - Kingsoft Software is a leading software and internet service company in China, focusing on interactive entertainment and office software, with cloud services and AI as new directions [14] - The company's revenue has grown steadily from RMB 4.37 billion in 2019 to RMB 8.53 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 18.20% [15] - The gaming business is strong, with Sword 3 showing resilience and new games like Limit Breaker and Sword Zero expected to contribute to future growth [16] - WPS AI, launched overseas in June 2024, is expected to enhance smart office platforms for 200 million users, with R&D efficiency improved by over 30% and costs reduced by over 35% [17] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 10.19 billion in 2024 to RMB 14.83 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.8% [4][18] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.87 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.33 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 41.9% [4][18] - EPS is projected to rise from RMB 0.65 in 2024 to RMB 1.75 in 2026 [4][18] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 82.44% to 83.31% from 2024 to 2026 [18] Business Segments - Office software and services revenue is expected to grow from RMB 5.11 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.55 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.93% [18] - Gaming revenue is forecasted to increase from RMB 5.05 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.23 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.80% [18] Strategic Initiatives - Kingsoft Office continues to focus on AI and collaboration, offering an AI office experience and advancing new productivity in the office sector [14] - The company is expanding its gaming portfolio with new titles like Limit Breaker and Sword Zero, which are expected to drive future growth [16] - Collaboration with Amazon Cloud has enhanced WPS AI's capabilities, improving R&D efficiency and reducing costs [17]