Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略专题报告 [Table_Title] 跟踪转口贸易的两个中观视角 ——25 年策略展望系列 4 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心结论：①18-19 年贸易摩擦后中国部分行业/商品通过绕道东南亚国家来 实现转口，其中家居用品和电池较为典型。②18-19 年贸易摩擦后中国部分 行业与东南亚国家通过上下游分工来避开制裁，例如半导体和汽车零部件。 ③近两年我国对东南亚出口高增并非单纯是转口，更多源于其本身内需强 劲，未来我国中高端制造有望继续受益。 跟踪转口方式 1：借助第三国绕道。通过对比 18-19 年中美贸易摩擦前后， 中国各行业对东南亚和拉美地区出口额的变化，以及美国各行业自东南亚和 拉美地区进口额的变化，我们发现多个行业在东南亚、拉美等地存在转口迹 象，即通过东南亚、拉美等地进行转口，再将产品销往美国。以家居用品、 电池和半导体为典型：中国家居用品行业通过中资企业进驻柬埔寨，在柬埔 寨进行转口贸易；中国电池行业加大在马来西亚投资，通过马来西亚转口； 中国半导体 ...

Trade Friction Impact - The 2018-2019 trade friction led to a significant increase in tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rising from 3.1% to 19.3%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports rising from 8% to 21.2%[11] - Academic studies estimate that a 1% increase in tariffs could lead to a 1.6% decrease in Chinese exports to the U.S., with overall export declines ranging from 17% to 32%[18] - The burden of tariffs was largely borne by U.S. consumers and importers, as Chinese export prices did not significantly decrease despite the tariff hikes[19] Potential 2025 Tariff Scenarios - If the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the average tariff level could rise by 40.7 percentage points, significantly impacting Chinese exports[23] - Under a neutral scenario, a 40% tariff increase could reduce China's export growth by 3.8 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points[29] - In an extreme scenario, a 60% tariff could drag down China's overall exports by 5.1 percentage points and GDP by more than 1 percentage point[29] Industry-Specific Impacts - Labor-intensive industries such as textiles, apparel, and furniture are more vulnerable to tariff increases due to their high export dependency[34] - Industries like computer and communication equipment, which have high U.S. import dependency, are also at significant risk[34] - Some industries, such as furniture and leather products, may have the ability to shift exports to other markets, mitigating the impact of tariffs[44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 12.19, representing a potential upside of 35% [5][20]. Core Insights - The company is a leading hydropower and new energy developer in the Lancang River Basin, with a controlled installed capacity of 29.20 million kilowatts as of the first half of 2024. It has announced a joint project to enhance its system regulation capabilities [2][17]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a slight revenue decline of 0.5% in 2023, but a projected revenue growth of 7.3% in 2024. The net profit is expected to grow steadily over the next few years [3][5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market reforms in the electricity sector, which are expected to enhance its pricing power and overall profitability [3][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of Huaneng Group, holding a 50.4% stake, and focuses on hydropower development in the Lancang River Basin. It operates a cascade of hydropower stations with strong regulation capabilities [2][17]. Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 23.50 billion and a net profit of RMB 7.60 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of -0.5% and 6%, respectively. The on-grid electricity price was RMB 0.221 per kWh, reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year [3][18]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of RMB 8.52 billion, RMB 9.53 billion, and RMB 10.11 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.47, RMB 0.53, and RMB 0.56 [5][20]. Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity through various projects, including the acquisition of Huaneng Sichuan, which adds 2.65 million kilowatts of installed capacity. New projects are expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [4][19]. - The company is also set to benefit from the issuance of tradable green certificates for new hydropower projects, which could enhance its revenue streams [4][19]. Valuation - The report uses a PE valuation method, assigning a multiple of 23x for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 12.19. A PB valuation method suggests a fair price of RMB 12.72, indicating strong growth potential [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the autonomous driving industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - As of November 2024, the total users for Li Auto, Huawei, and NIO reached 105,000, 33,000, and 63,000 respectively, with monthly increases of 5,000, 3,000, and 2,000 users [2] - The cumulative autonomous driving mileage for Li Auto is 2.8 billion kilometers, leading among new force brands [2] - Li Auto's advanced driving features have positively impacted the sales of its high-end models, with the 2024 AD MAX model showing a significant increase in sales proportion compared to the 2023 model [7] Summary by Sections User and Mileage Data - As of November 2024, Li Auto's total autonomous driving mileage reached 2.76 billion kilometers, with 1.1 billion kilometers added in November, accounting for 73% of the total mileage [7] - Huawei's autonomous driving mileage reached 1.6 billion kilometers in November, while NIO's total mileage was 1.74 billion kilometers [10][13] Advanced Driving Features - Li Auto's end-to-end + VLM dual system architecture was fully pushed on October 23, 2024, enhancing the sales of high-end models [7] - NIO's total autonomous driving mileage includes 1.48 billion kilometers of navigation-assisted driving, with a user base of 630,000 as of November 2024 [13] Market Penetration - The penetration rate for One Box reached 39.4% in October 2024, with a cumulative penetration rate of 35.0% from January to October [19] - The penetration rate for intelligent driving domain controllers was 14.0% in October 2024, with a market share of 32.1% for leading domestic companies [23] Key Models - The Hongmeng Zhixing R7 extended version is set to launch on December 19, 2024, featuring a 1.5T engine and a CLTC range of 1570 km [31] - The Great Wall Motors' new Blue Mountain intelligent driving version was announced with nationwide NOA capabilities and a price range of 299,800 to 326,800 yuan [34] - The Xiaopeng P7+ was launched on November 7, 2024, with record pre-orders of 31,500 units and advanced AI vision capabilities [35]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for Broadcom, particularly in the custom ASIC and Ethernet solutions sectors, indicating potential growth opportunities [4][13]. Core Insights - Broadcom's Q4 2024 revenue reached $14.05 billion, a year-over-year increase of 51.20%, with a GAAP net profit of $4.32 billion, reflecting a 22.70% increase year-over-year [2][9]. - The company achieved record annual revenue of $51.57 billion for FY2024, up 44% year-over-year, driven by significant growth in AI and infrastructure software segments [9][11]. - AI revenue surged to $12.20 billion, marking a 220% increase year-over-year, primarily due to the demand for AI XPU and Ethernet products [9][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2024 saw infrastructure software revenue of $5.82 billion, up 196% year-over-year, with a gross profit margin of 91% [10]. - Semiconductor solutions revenue was $8.23 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with AI revenue contributing $3.70 billion, up 150% year-over-year [10][11]. - The networking segment reported $4.50 billion in revenue, a 45% increase year-over-year, with AI networking revenue comprising 76% of this, reflecting a 158% growth [10][12]. Future Guidance - For FY25Q1, Broadcom expects total revenue of $14.60 billion, with semiconductor solutions revenue projected at $8.10 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase [11]. - AI revenue is anticipated to grow 65% year-over-year to $3.80 billion, while infrastructure software revenue is expected to reach $6.50 billion, up 41% year-over-year [11]. Market Opportunities - The demand for custom AI chips is robust, with three hyperscale customers planning to deploy 1 million XPU clusters each by 2027, potentially expanding the serviceable market to $60-90 billion [12][13]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies involved in ASICs, Ethernet switches, high-speed copper cables, and cooling solutions, indicating a broad range of potential investment opportunities in the sector [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machine tool industry, anticipating recovery driven by government support for equipment updates and domestic machine tool exports [9]. Core Insights - From January to November 2024, metal cutting machine tool production increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 610,000 units, with November production reaching 60,000 units, up 10.5% year-on-year [2][29]. - Machine tool imports in November 2024 totaled USD 492 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.89% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.84% [2][29]. - In Japan, domestic machine tool orders rose by 5.0% year-on-year to JPY 34.3 billion, while foreign orders increased by 2.2% year-on-year to JPY 85 billion in November 2024 [2][30]. Industry Data Summary - The machine tool industry revenue from January to October 2024 was RMB 838.7 billion, down 5.9% year-on-year, with metal cutting tools growing by 7.7% and metal forming tools by 8.9% [4][32]. - New orders for metal processing tools increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the backlog of orders grew by 1.5% [4][32]. - In November 2024, major Japanese machine tool companies saw a 16.4% year-on-year increase in orders, indicating a recovery in demand, although small and medium enterprises remain cautious [4][33]. Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is planning new measures to stabilize industrial growth, focusing on equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, including initiatives for large-scale equipment updates and promoting smart new energy vehicles [3][31]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary policies to foster technological innovation and risk prevention [3][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic machine tool exports and applications in emerging fields such as robotics and 3C, highlighting key companies in various segments of the machine tool industry [9][34].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see rapid growth in RF power supply products for the semiconductor sector starting in 2025E [2][4]. - The company has established itself as a leader in industrial power supply, focusing on power electronics technology applications across various industries, including power control supplies and special power supplies [2][4][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of innovation, successfully developing several industry-first products, including the first fully digital single crystal furnace heating DC power supply in China and the first 36-pair multi-crystal silicon reduction furnace power supply globally [2][4][21]. - The company has a strong brand presence in the domestic power control and special industrial power supply equipment market [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 1.28 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.77 billion yuan in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 94.34% and 37.99%, respectively [47]. - The projected revenues for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2.22 billion yuan, 2.61 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25.56%, 17.35%, and 11.84% [4][47]. - The net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be 550 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 806 million yuan, with growth rates of 27.45%, 21.82%, and 20.36% [4][47]. Market Dynamics - The company’s orders for the first three quarters of 2024 were approximately 1.4 billion yuan, showing a decline primarily due to a significant drop in the photovoltaic sector, which saw orders decrease by over 50% year-on-year [3][32]. - Orders from the semiconductor electronic materials sector increased by over 10% year-on-year, amounting to 328 million yuan [3][32]. - The company aims to expand its overseas market for photovoltaic power supplies and increase sales in semiconductor electronic materials and new energy charging pile businesses [3][32]. Growth Opportunities - The partnership with leading semiconductor equipment companies is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process for RF power supplies [4][37]. - The company is focusing on expanding its sales scale in semiconductor electronic materials, which is anticipated to grow rapidly [4][50]. Product Segmentation - The company’s revenue from the photovoltaic sector was 974 million yuan in 2023, maintaining a market share of over 70% in the domestic market [27][43]. - The revenue from the semiconductor electronic materials sector has been increasing, with a significant growth rate of 69.35% in 2023 [47][50]. - The company has developed a series of electric vehicle charging equipment, achieving recognition in the industry for quality and innovation [25][29].

Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2024, the fiscal policy focused on debt reduction while also showing effectiveness in expanding domestic demand through various tools[3] - The central government's debt issuance scale is expected to moderately increase in 2025, with a budget deficit rate projected to rise to around 3.5%-4%[3][60] - Special bonds are anticipated to expand from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024 to approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025[3][60] Consumption and Investment Support - The "old-for-new" policy is likely to continue and expand in 2025, with a target to increase the recycling of scrapped vehicles by 50% and household appliances by 15% compared to 2023[4][29] - The government plans to allocate around 1.5 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" subsidy, which could boost retail sales growth by 0.45-0.6 percentage points[61] - Equipment updates in key sectors are expected to see increased investment, with a projected growth of over 25% in industrial equipment investment by 2027[62] Infrastructure and Risk Management - The issuance of special bonds is likely to continue, with over 1 trillion yuan expected to support "two new" and "two heavy" projects[3][60] - The focus on "two heavy" construction projects will include significant infrastructure investments in areas such as food security and energy security[56] - Additional special bonds may be issued to inject capital into banks, ensuring financial stability and supporting real estate and vulnerable groups[63]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry, but it suggests focusing on specific companies within the aviation and express delivery sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these areas [6][66]. Core Insights - The transportation index decreased by 0.1% from December 9 to December 13, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.4%. Notable subsector performances included bus (+6.4%), express delivery (+1.4%), and warehousing logistics (+0.1%) [3][35]. - The 2024 Digital Transportation Conference highlighted the integration of new technologies in transportation, aiming to enhance productivity and stimulate industry momentum [50][55]. - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the SCFI index rising by 5.7% while the BDI index fell by 9.9% during the same period [64][40]. Weekly Market Review - The transportation index from December 9 to December 13, 2024, showed a decline of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%. The performance of various subsectors included: - Bus: +6.4% - Express Delivery: +1.4% - Warehousing Logistics: +0.1% - Air Transport: +0.1% - Highway: 0.0% - Shipping: -0.3% - Cross-border Logistics: -0.4% - Port: -1.0% - Railway Transport: -1.2% - Road Freight: -1.7% [3][35]. Shipping Observations - As of December 13, 2024, the SCFI index was at 2384.4, up 5.7% from the previous week, while the BDI was at 1051, down 9.9% [64][41]. - The oil transport sector is expected to see a rise in profit margins due to tight supply-demand conditions, with limited new supply expected [68]. Recent Highlights - The 2024 Digital Transportation Conference focused on the integration of digital technologies in transportation, aiming to enhance productivity and industry momentum [50][55]. - Significant developments in shipping infrastructure were noted, including the completion of nearly half of the lock construction at the Pinglu Canal [65][54]. Investment Strategy - In the aviation sector, there is an expectation of increased demand for international travel in 2024, driven by improved international relations and visa policies. The report suggests focusing on companies like Spring Airlines, Hainan Airlines Holding, and Juneyao Airlines [66][69]. - For express delivery, the report notes a decline in average selling prices for major companies, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [67]. - The highway sector is highlighted for its defensive attributes and investment value, particularly in the context of a weak economic recovery [69].

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 2024-12-17 生产稳定，需求偏弱 ——2024 年 11 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 总体来看，11 月生产端相对稳定，但需求端略有波折。11 月内需出现一些 扰动，其中消费受促销季和消费补贴前置分流的影响，同比增速有所回落， 制造业和基建投资则受政策接续空档期的影响也小幅边际走弱。不过政策支 撑较强的板块，如地产投资、地产链的消费、汽车生产等仍表现亮眼，地产 对经济的拖累有所减弱，高端制造仍是经济的主要支撑。我们认为，新一轮 增量政策在四季度逐步落地见效，在其支撑下，全年完成经济目标的难度不 大，明年或可期待更大力度的政策落地。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策效果不及预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 宏观研究—宏观专题报告 2 日 录 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------- ...