Market Performance - Global major asset prices increased last week (2024.12.20-2024.12.27), with the S&P 500 rising by 0.7%, Nikkei 225 up by 4.1%, and Hang Seng Index up by 1.9%[1] - Emerging market stock index outperformed developed market stock index, with increases of 1.3% and 0.9% respectively[15] Commodity and Bond Market - IPE Brent crude futures rose by 1.4%, COMEX copper increased by 0.7%, and the South China Commodity Index was up by 0.3%[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.62%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures fell by 0.03%[1] Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to close at 108.0, with the USD/JPY exchange rate at 157.9 and USD/CNY at 7.3, indicating depreciation of both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan[1] Inflation Expectations - As of December 27, the 5-year inflation expectation in the U.S. was 2.38%, up by 4 basis points, while the 10-year expectation rose by 5 basis points to 2.34%[9] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been pushed to May 2025, with only one anticipated cut of 25 basis points for that year[9] European Steel Production - In November, the year-on-year growth rate of crude steel production in the EU's 28 countries fell to 0.9%, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month[23][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for the automotive industry, indicating that the expected relative performance over the next 12-18 months will not significantly deviate from the benchmark index [39]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown strong performance recently, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 4% over the past month, and the New Energy Vehicle Index increasing by 6% [86]. - NIO Day 2024 was held, where NIO announced the launch of the ET9 priced at RMB 788,000 and introduced a new brand, Firefly, with a pre-sale price of RMB 148,800 [83][20]. - Leapmotor's founder announced that the company expects to achieve nearly 300,000 vehicle sales in 2024, exceeding its targets [21][17]. - The report highlights the importance of diesel engine backup power in the rapidly developing data center sector, recommending Weichai Power and China Yuchai International [96][33]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry Overview - In the last quarter (2024/9/28-2024/12/27), the Shenwan Automotive Index increased by 16%, with the New Energy Vehicle Index up by 18% and the Commercial Vehicle Index up by 23% [6][82]. - The report notes that leading gainers in the automotive sector over the past month include Jianshe Industry Group, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Xiamen King Long Motor Group, while notable decliners include Changchun Yidong and Hunan Oil Pump [32][9]. New Energy Vehicles - The retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 817,000 units from December 1-22, 2024, marking a 60% year-on-year increase [91]. - The report emphasizes the growing market for new energy vehicles, with cumulative retail sales for the year reaching 10.413 million units, a 43% increase compared to the previous year [91]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can leverage strategic partnerships and possess strong capabilities to navigate the challenges posed by new regulations and market conditions, particularly highlighting BYD and Leapmotor [4][96]. - It suggests monitoring companies with advanced autonomous driving technologies and those involved in the domestic substitution of automotive parts, such as XPeng and Li Auto [85][34].

研究报告 Research Report | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

投资要点 SQM必和必 拓 0 20 40 60 80 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 LME铜 SHFE阴极铜 SHFE国际铜 COMEX铜 5 6 7 8 9 6000 8000 10000 12000 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 LME铜（美元/吨；左轴） SHFE阴极铜（万元/吨；右轴） 9 资料来源：Wind，HTI 10 资料来源：Wind，HTI 2.1 工业金属：LME铜价上涨0.4% 13 资料来源：Wind，HTI 4 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2. 主要子板块跟踪（12/20-12/27） 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 1500 2500 3500 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 LME铝（美元/吨；左轴） SHFE铝（万元/吨；右轴） 0 20 40 60 22/12 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 图：上期所锡期货收盘价（万元/吨） 电池级碳酸锂价格下跌0.1% 图：硫酸镍和高镍铁价格 图：上期所镍期货收盘价（万元/吨） 陈先龙Xianlong Chen xl.ch ...

策略研究 策略专题报告 4 表目录 表 1 历年股市资金净流入规模测算（亿元）.................................................................... 10 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 策略研究 策略专题报告 5 本篇报告是我们 2025 年策略展望系列报告的第 5 篇，此前在 2025 年 A 股年度展 望《鲲鹏击浪从兹始——2025 年 A 股展望-20241116》中我们指出 2025 年 A 股资金面 望进一步改善，增量政策落地推动宏微观基本面改善，A 股延续上行趋势。本文将从资 金面分析的角度出发，对 2025 年的 A 股流动性环境作进一步阐述。 1. 宏观流动性对 A 股影响偏间接 展望明年，我国宏观流动性有望进一步宽松。从货币政策的基调来看，2024 年中 央经济工作会议明确提出 2025 年"要实施适度宽松的货币政策"、"适时降准降息，保持 流动性充裕"，标志货币政策基调有望进一步转向宽松。当前我国货币政策仍有一定的 发力空间，例如 2024 年 12 月中国人民银行研究局局长王信表示，"在流动性层面，目 前我国平均 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 利润持续边际改善 ——11 月工业企业利润数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策效果不及预期。 宏观研究—宏观快报点评 2 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 图 1 | 工业企业利润当月同比增速（%）. | | | 图 2 | 驱动工业利润的因素分解： 量、价、利润率（%）………………………………………………………………………………………3 | | | 图 3 | 分行业利润当月同比增速（%） | | | 图 4 | 分行业利润率的差（11月-10月，百分点） | | | 图 5 | 工业企业营业收入、产成品存货同比增速（%）. | | 宏观研究—宏观快报点评 3 图 工业企业利润当月同比增速（%） -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a relative rating system for the covered companies, categorized as Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform, indicating expected performance over the next 12-18 months compared to relevant market benchmarks [28][44][70]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI technology, particularly OpenAI's ChatGPT, which now includes features such as voice search and real-time information retrieval, enhancing user interaction and accessibility [19][29][36]. - OpenAI has reduced the pricing for its GPT-4o audio services by 60%, making it more cost-effective for users, with new models introduced to cater to different pricing needs [20][21]. - The focus of OpenAI has shifted towards practical functionality and ease of use for developers, suggesting that the deployment of AI applications will drive industry growth rather than just the evolution of foundational technologies [21][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the information services industry, emphasizing the integration of conversational AI and real-time data access, which are transforming user experiences [9][11][19]. Technological Developments - Key features of the ChatGPT search include natural language processing, follow-up questions, real-time data access, and visual results, which collectively enhance the search experience [12][19][36]. - The introduction of preference fine-tuning allows for better model customization based on user preferences, improving the performance of AI in subjective tasks [38]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests potential investment opportunities in companies such as Kingsoft Office, Newtouch Software, and others that are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology and information services [13][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 19.35, reflecting a 35% increase from the previous valuation [4][40]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the comprehensive international trade reform plan approved by the State Council, which aims to enhance market procurement, innovate import trade, and optimize cross-border e-commerce [35][36]. - Yiwu's import-export value reached RMB 613.99 billion from January to November, marking a 17.6% year-on-year increase, with imports growing at 19.0% [4][39]. - The company plans to leverage its platforms and facilities to expand consumer goods imports, enhance digital capabilities for export enterprises, and optimize logistics and trade settlement processes [38][28]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The State Council approved a comprehensive reform plan for Yiwu, focusing on market procurement, import trade innovation, and cross-border e-commerce [35][36]. - Yiwu aims for RMB 100 billion in imports by 2025 and RMB 300 billion by 2030, with the 'Yi Pay' platform enhancing cross-border payment services [37][4]. Financial Performance - The updated profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are RMB 2.86 billion, RMB 3.66 billion, and RMB 5.35 billion, representing growth rates of 6.9%, 27.9%, and 46.1% respectively [4][40]. - The company's market cap is projected at RMB 106.1 billion, with offline business valued at 23x PE and online business at 0.45x PGMV [40]. Market Dynamics - Yiwu's import growth is strong but still lower than exports, indicating potential for further development in the import sector [39][4]. - The company is set to implement five key initiatives to enhance its operational efficiency and market presence [28][38].

Fertility Rate and Economic Impact - China's total fertility rate has dropped to 1.0, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, and is among the lowest globally, ranking 9th from the bottom out of 253 countries/regions[130] - Long-term low fertility rates may lead to reduced labor supply, decreased productivity, and weakened social innovation, potentially slowing economic growth[1] - Low fertility rates could suppress household consumption and increase savings, negatively impacting economic growth[89] International Comparisons and Policy Responses - China's fertility rate decline from 1950 to 2023 was 4.8, second only to South Korea among major economies, and significantly higher than the global average decline of 2.6[130] - Nordic countries like Sweden, Denmark, and Finland have implemented strong family support policies, with family subsidies accounting for 3.6%, 3.2%, and 3.0% of GDP, respectively, significantly higher than the OECD average of 1.6%[103] - East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have been slower to transition from population control to pro-natalist policies, with policy shifts taking over 20 years in some cases[15] Policy Recommendations for China - Increasing cash subsidies to 1.2% of GDP could help stabilize and boost fertility rates, with proposed monthly subsidies ranging from 686 to 2,688 yuan depending on the child's age[44] - Enhancing women's employment security and social childcare support is crucial, as China's female labor participation rate is 70.9%, higher than the global average of 53.5% and high-income countries' average of 68.8%[21] - Reducing gender inequality in the workplace and increasing male participation in childcare could help balance family and work life, with China's gender inequality index at 0.19, higher than Europe, Japan, and South Korea[114] Demographic Trends and Risks - China's working-age population (15-64 years) has been declining, with Italy, Japan, and South Korea experiencing significant drops in labor supply after their fertility rates fell below the warning line[87] - The second baby boom generation (1962-1971) is gradually exiting the childbearing age, putting further pressure on the fertility rate[130] - Low fertility rates may lead to a decline in the youth dependency ratio, which could either increase or decrease household savings depending on the country's specific economic conditions[134]

合规和申诉办公室联系人： Prasanna Chandwaskar ；电话: +91 22 43156803; 电子邮箱: prasanna.chandwaskar@htisec.com "请注意，SEBI 授予的注册和 NISM 的认证并不保证中介的表现或为投资者提供任何回报保证"。 Name of the entity: Haitong Securities India Private Limited 总量专题报告 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： [Table_MainInfo] 总量研究 证券研究报告 [Table_Title]低生育率的危害和破局 核心结论：①我国总和生育率降至 1.0，已低于警戒线 1.5，长期低生育率或 通过影响劳动供给、社会创新及消费储蓄行为拖累经济增长。②从海外政策 应对看，政策转向慢、力度小的日韩生育率改善效果偏弱，但财政支持力度 大、持续性强的北欧效果明显。③为推动生育率回升，建议我国逐步加大现 金补贴占 GDP 比重至 1.2%，并完善妇女就业保障和社会育儿支持。 借鉴海外看低生育率的政策应对及效果。欧洲：北欧及法、德等国实施早且 力度大，政策效果已现。欧洲国 ...