Consumption - Automotive consumption remains strong, with retail and wholesale year-on-year growth rates recorded at 32.1% and 54.5% respectively[16] - Non-durable goods consumption, such as textiles and apparel, shows a slight decline, with the China Textile City transaction volume experiencing a seasonal drop but still recording a year-on-year growth of 29.0%[16] - Service consumption, including movie attendance and amusement park visits, has weakened, with movie attendance dropping to -31.3% year-on-year[18] Investment - Infrastructure funding remains relatively abundant, with new corporate medium to long-term loans amounting to 210 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 236 billion yuan[22] - New housing sales in 30 major cities showed a seasonal increase, with average daily sales area at 430,000 square meters, but year-on-year growth fell to 17.2% due to a low base effect[22] - Construction progress in infrastructure and real estate is relatively fast, with the asphalt plant operating rate rising to 29.7%[23] Trade - South Korea's export data improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% in early December, while China's import growth surged to 30.2%[26] - Despite a slight decline in port data, the overall export outlook remains strong due to robust overseas demand and expectations of increased exports[26] Production - Steel production continues to weaken, with a decline in operating rates for blast furnaces and rebar, indicating ongoing challenges in the steel sector[30] - Coal and electricity demand is supported by seasonal increases, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a year-on-year positive change[30] Prices - Food prices have shown a marginal decline, with pork prices decreasing by 0.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16.0%[42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for energy and construction materials remains stable, with coal prices recorded at 716 yuan per ton[43] Liquidity - The funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 reported at 1.91% and 1.69% respectively, reflecting a week-on-week rise[45] - The US dollar index has risen to 106.94, with the exchange rate against the yuan at 7.280, indicating a strengthening dollar[45]

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 2024-12-14 政府借钱，企业还债 ——11 月金融数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 11 月社融同比增速在连续 3 个月回落后与 10 月持平，主要得益于政府债和 企业债的拉动，而信贷表现较历史同期偏弱。从结构上看，在地方化债加码 的背景下，政府债融资同比多增，但地方城投平台隐债中的部分贷款被置换 出来，影响了企业信贷的存量。同时，受地产增量政策影响，房地产销售持 续改善，对居民中长期贷款形成一定支撑。9 月下旬以来一揽子增量政策的 影响有所显现。 近日，12 月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议落幕，会议均定调积极，强调将 实施"更加积极有为的宏观政策"，我们认为，财政政策有望边际加码，货币 政策会实现渐进式的降息。从过去经验来看，融资指标是我国经济的领先指 标。往后看，融资增速的变化将是我们观察经济回升情况、政策发力效果的 关键。 风险提示：政策力度不及预期、房地产走势的不确定性。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 社融增速持平 地方化 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference has set a positive tone, with monetary, fiscal, real estate, and capital market policies expected to work in concert, potentially accelerating domestic economic recovery and transitioning the stock market into a new phase driven by fundamentals [2][10][21] - The report highlights three major policy shifts: a shift to "moderately loose" monetary policy, an emphasis on "more proactive" fiscal policy, and a focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [10][11][12] - The report suggests that mid-to-high-end manufacturing and technology manufacturing are likely to be the mid-term focus areas in the stock market, with a strategic emphasis on consumer opportunities [21][25] Group 2 - The report outlines nine key tasks for economic work in 2025, prioritizing consumption and domestic demand expansion, emphasizing technological innovation, and promoting reform and opening up [21][24] - It notes that the focus on boosting consumption has been elevated to the top priority, indicating a potential increase in support measures for consumer-related policies [21][22] - The report anticipates that the combination of supportive policies and improving fundamentals will clarify the mid-term market direction, particularly in sectors benefiting from supply-demand advantages [21][25] Group 3 - The report provides data indicating that from January to November, exports of home appliances and automobiles have maintained high growth rates, with year-on-year export growth rates of 15.5% and 16.9% respectively [25] - It also mentions that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in October was 3.5%, marking an end to eight consecutive months of decline [17][25] - The report emphasizes that the technology sector is expected to benefit from both policy and technological support, particularly in areas such as digital infrastructure and AI applications [26][27]

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference indicates a positive tone, with expectations for coordinated monetary, fiscal, real estate, and capital market policies to stimulate economic recovery[2] - The conference emphasizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as top priorities, highlighting a shift in focus towards consumer-driven growth[21] - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with potential increases in the fiscal deficit target to 3.5-4.0% and continued issuance of special bonds to support infrastructure and consumption[11] Group 2: Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to transition into a new phase driven by fundamentals, supported by the implementation of incremental policies[17] - Key economic indicators show improvement, with November manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, PPI turning positive for the first time since June, and a 5.4% year-on-year increase in exports[17] - The A-share net profit growth is projected to rise to 5-10% in 2025, indicating a shift from asset revaluation to fundamental-driven growth[17] Group 3: Sector Focus - Mid-to-high-end manufacturing and technology sectors are identified as mid-term investment themes, with strong fundamentals and supportive policies expected to drive growth[21] - The global humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 50% from 2024 to 2028, indicating significant opportunities in technology manufacturing[26] - Consumer goods sectors are also highlighted for strategic focus, with policies aimed at boosting consumption likely to enhance the performance of retail and service industries[27]

Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized "implementing more proactive macro policies" to ensure stable growth within a "high-quality" framework, avoiding large-scale stimulus measures[8] - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%[9] - Fiscal policy is likely to see a marginal increase, with the deficit rate projected to rise to 3.5%-4%[11] Fiscal Policy - The conference proposed to increase the issuance of special bonds and local government bonds, with a total increase expected to reach around 2 trillion yuan[11] - The focus will be on enhancing fiscal spending efficiency and supporting consumption and livelihood improvements[11] Monetary Policy - A gradual interest rate cut is anticipated, with the aim of maintaining liquidity and aligning monetary supply with economic growth targets[15] - The impact of exchange rates on monetary policy is expected to be manageable, with various tools available to stabilize the currency[15] Domestic Demand Expansion - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand has increased, with a shift towards promoting consumption rather than relying heavily on investment[16] - Initiatives to boost consumer spending, such as increasing pensions and enhancing consumption scenarios, are expected to be implemented[16] Real Estate Policy - The focus remains on stabilizing the real estate market without strong stimulus, with existing policies needing effective implementation[18] - Measures include controlling new land supply and promoting the renovation of old housing to meet demand[20] Capital Market Stability - The conference highlighted the importance of stabilizing the stock market to boost confidence in the real economy[22] - Future policies may include structural monetary tools to enhance investor confidence and market activity[22] Industrial Policy - The focus will be on leading technological innovation to develop a modern industrial system, with increased support for basic research and key technologies[23] - The government aims to attract more social capital for venture investments and nurture innovative enterprises[23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of 29.43 RMB based on a 27x PE valuation for 2024 [5][22]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the global mica insulation materials industry, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of mica insulation, fiberglass cloth, and new energy insulation materials. Its products are widely used in various sectors including cables, household appliances, new energy vehicles, energy storage, photovoltaic, and rail transit [2][22]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with total revenue from 2021 to Q3 2024 being 877 million, 842 million, 927 million, and 777 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year changes of 30.84%, -3.93%, 10.07%, and 14.75% respectively. The net profit after non-recurring items was 121 million, 125 million, 160 million, and 153 million RMB, with significant growth rates [3][22]. - The mica market is expanding, with a projected CAGR of 18.00% until 2027, reaching 41.81 billion RMB. The company's new energy insulation materials revenue grew by 204.09% year-on-year in H1 2024, indicating strong economic benefits from this segment [4][22]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved total revenue of 8.77 billion RMB in 2021, 8.42 billion RMB in 2022, 9.27 billion RMB in 2023, and 7.77 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit of 1.21 billion RMB, 1.25 billion RMB, 1.60 billion RMB, and 1.53 billion RMB respectively [3][19]. - The overseas revenue accounted for 28.41% of total revenue in H1 2024, with a gross profit margin of 52.65%, indicating a growing international presence [3][22]. - The company plans to enhance its delivery capacity with new production bases in Wuhan and Malaysia, which are expected to contribute to stable revenue growth [4][22]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 202 million RMB for 2024, 251 million RMB for 2025, and 312 million RMB for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.09, 1.35, and 1.68 RMB per share [5][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 89.44 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company specializes in aluminum alloy components for NEV battery systems, with significant market potential. Its main products include battery boxes, cell casings, and precision structures. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.38 billion, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 150 million, an increase of 0.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 24.8%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The market for battery boxes is projected to grow from RMB 29.3 billion in 2023 to over RMB 104.2 billion by 2030 [2][3][17]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is a leading supplier of battery boxes, having shipped 763,000 units in 2023, capturing an 8.0% market share, ranking third in the industry. It has established strong relationships with major clients such as BYD, Geely, and Gotion High-Tech, and has recently entered the supply chain of CALB Group [3][12][17]. Market Trends - The integration trend in battery systems is driving an increase in average selling prices (ASP). The ASP of battery boxes has risen from RMB 1,516 in 2021 to RMB 2,098 in the first half of 2024, with CTB prices exceeding RMB 2,800. The sales share of CTB products has increased from 26.3% in 2023 to 56.4% in the first half of 2024 [3][4][17]. Cost Advantages - The company has a cost advantage due to its aluminum extrusion process, which has been extended to aluminum casting, allowing for recycling and further cost benefits. This integrated production process is expected to enhance overall cost efficiency [4][17]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 210 million, RMB 310 million, and RMB 390 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.14, RMB 3.19, and RMB 4.04 [4][15][17].

Inflation Trends - US CPI increased slightly to 2.7% YoY in November 2024, up by 0.1 percentage points from October[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% YoY, unchanged from October[2] - Core CPI seasonally adjusted MoM was 0.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month[2] Inflation Components - Food inflation rose to 2.4% YoY in November, up by 0.3 percentage points from October[10] - Energy inflation improved to -3.2% YoY, narrowing by 1.7 percentage points from October[10] - Core goods inflation improved to -0.6% YoY, narrowing by 0.8 percentage points from October[12] Service Inflation - Core service inflation eased to 4.6% YoY, down by 0.2 percentage points from October[14] - Owner's equivalent rent inflation declined to 4.9% YoY, down from 5.1% in October[14] - Non-housing service inflation slowed to 4.1% YoY, down by 0.4 percentage points from October[16] Market Expectations - Market expects a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in December 2024, with a probability near 100%[2] - Total expected rate cuts for 2025 remain around 50 basis points[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese medicine industry, indicating a potential bottom reversal driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers and acquisitions [2][8]. Core Insights - The proprietary Chinese medicine market is nearly RMB 500 billion, with over 30% from the non-hospital market. The total market size of the Chinese medicine industry exceeded RMB 700 billion in 2023. The proprietary Chinese medicine market reached nearly RMB 500 billion, TCM cut crude drugs at RMB 217.3 billion, and Chinese medicine formula granules over RMB 50 billion. From 2017 to 2023, the non-hospital market CAGR was 3.0% [2][32]. - Demand is growing steadily, supported by the aging population and chronic disease medication needs. The non-hospital retail channel concentration benefits the OTC Chinese medicine brand field [3][32]. - State-owned enterprises dominate the industry, accounting for 63% of revenue, 61% of net profit attributable to shareholders, and 60% of market capitalization in 2023. Recent reforms have injected new momentum into the industry [3][32]. - The Chinese medicine sector has a high dividend level, with a dividend rate of 60.4% in 2023, significantly higher than the overall biopharmaceutical industry [4][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The proprietary Chinese medicine market is close to RMB 500 billion, with the non-hospital market share increasing from 28% in 2017 to 32% in 2023. The total market size of the Chinese medicine industry surpassed RMB 700 billion in 2023 [2][32]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side shows resilience, with significant revenue and profit growth from 2019 to 2023. The supply side remains stable due to long product cycles and high brand barriers [3][32]. State-Owned Enterprises and Reforms - State-owned enterprises hold a significant position in the industry, with 21 A-Shares companies under state control, accounting for 30%. Their revenue and profitability advantages are notable, and recent reforms have led to growth through various strategic initiatives [3][32]. Financial Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's total revenue grew from RMB 148.6 billion in 2013 to RMB 372.1 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 16.6 billion in 2013 to RMB 33.6 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.3% [4][32]. Future Outlook - The Chinese medicine sector faced growth pressure in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue at RMB 270.6 billion, down 3% YoY. However, companies like Dong-E-E-Jiao and others achieved high growth through core product channel expansion [5][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Link Science and Technology has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [1][11]. Core Views - The company is focused on the research, development, production, and sales of carbon black and silica products, with a designed production capacity of 200,000 tons per year for silica and 225,000 tons per year for carbon black [7][11]. - The company has established certifications with renowned tire manufacturers, indicating strong market acceptance [7]. - Revenue has shown consistent growth, with silica contributing 70% to gross profit, and the company expects to maintain this upward trend [8][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 2,308 million, RMB 2,762 million, and RMB 3,200 million respectively, with a growth rate of 20% for 2024 [3][5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 287 million, RMB 372 million, and RMB 448 million, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.42, RMB 1.84, and RMB 2.22 [11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 20.3% in 2024 to 22.4% in 2026 [5]. Market Demand and Trends - The demand for silicon dioxide is rapidly increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.06% from 2014 to 2020, indicating a strong market potential [9]. - There is a significant demand gap for high-end carbon black products, particularly in the context of green tire production [9][10]. - The company is working on projects to achieve domestic production of conductive carbon black, which is expected to reduce reliance on imports [10].