Inflation Trends - US CPI increased slightly to 2.7% YoY in November 2024, up by 0.1 percentage points from October[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% YoY, unchanged from October[2] - Core CPI seasonally adjusted MoM was 0.3%, unchanged for the fourth consecutive month[2] Inflation Components - Food inflation rose to 2.4% YoY in November, up by 0.3 percentage points from October[10] - Energy inflation improved to -3.2% YoY, narrowing by 1.7 percentage points from October[10] - Core goods inflation improved to -0.6% YoY, narrowing by 0.8 percentage points from October[12] Service Inflation - Core service inflation eased to 4.6% YoY, down by 0.2 percentage points from October[14] - Owner's equivalent rent inflation declined to 4.9% YoY, down from 5.1% in October[14] - Non-housing service inflation slowed to 4.1% YoY, down by 0.4 percentage points from October[16] Market Expectations - Market expects a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in December 2024, with a probability near 100%[2] - Total expected rate cuts for 2025 remain around 50 basis points[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese medicine industry, indicating a potential bottom reversal driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and mergers and acquisitions [2][8]. Core Insights - The proprietary Chinese medicine market is nearly RMB 500 billion, with over 30% from the non-hospital market. The total market size of the Chinese medicine industry exceeded RMB 700 billion in 2023. The proprietary Chinese medicine market reached nearly RMB 500 billion, TCM cut crude drugs at RMB 217.3 billion, and Chinese medicine formula granules over RMB 50 billion. From 2017 to 2023, the non-hospital market CAGR was 3.0% [2][32]. - Demand is growing steadily, supported by the aging population and chronic disease medication needs. The non-hospital retail channel concentration benefits the OTC Chinese medicine brand field [3][32]. - State-owned enterprises dominate the industry, accounting for 63% of revenue, 61% of net profit attributable to shareholders, and 60% of market capitalization in 2023. Recent reforms have injected new momentum into the industry [3][32]. - The Chinese medicine sector has a high dividend level, with a dividend rate of 60.4% in 2023, significantly higher than the overall biopharmaceutical industry [4][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The proprietary Chinese medicine market is close to RMB 500 billion, with the non-hospital market share increasing from 28% in 2017 to 32% in 2023. The total market size of the Chinese medicine industry surpassed RMB 700 billion in 2023 [2][32]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side shows resilience, with significant revenue and profit growth from 2019 to 2023. The supply side remains stable due to long product cycles and high brand barriers [3][32]. State-Owned Enterprises and Reforms - State-owned enterprises hold a significant position in the industry, with 21 A-Shares companies under state control, accounting for 30%. Their revenue and profitability advantages are notable, and recent reforms have led to growth through various strategic initiatives [3][32]. Financial Performance - The Chinese medicine sector's total revenue grew from RMB 148.6 billion in 2013 to RMB 372.1 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 16.6 billion in 2013 to RMB 33.6 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 7.3% [4][32]. Future Outlook - The Chinese medicine sector faced growth pressure in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue at RMB 270.6 billion, down 3% YoY. However, companies like Dong-E-E-Jiao and others achieved high growth through core product channel expansion [5][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Link Science and Technology has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [1][11]. Core Views - The company is focused on the research, development, production, and sales of carbon black and silica products, with a designed production capacity of 200,000 tons per year for silica and 225,000 tons per year for carbon black [7][11]. - The company has established certifications with renowned tire manufacturers, indicating strong market acceptance [7]. - Revenue has shown consistent growth, with silica contributing 70% to gross profit, and the company expects to maintain this upward trend [8][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 2,308 million, RMB 2,762 million, and RMB 3,200 million respectively, with a growth rate of 20% for 2024 [3][5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 287 million, RMB 372 million, and RMB 448 million, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.42, RMB 1.84, and RMB 2.22 [11]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 20.3% in 2024 to 22.4% in 2026 [5]. Market Demand and Trends - The demand for silicon dioxide is rapidly increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.06% from 2014 to 2020, indicating a strong market potential [9]. - There is a significant demand gap for high-end carbon black products, particularly in the context of green tire production [9][10]. - The company is working on projects to achieve domestic production of conductive carbon black, which is expected to reduce reliance on imports [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the U.S. energy storage market, driven by high internal rates of return (IRR), interest rate cuts, and subsidies [2][3]. Core Insights - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing sustained growth due to high IRR, interest rate reductions, and subsidies, with significant contributions from California and Texas, which account for nearly 70% of new installations [2][4]. - The report highlights that the simplification of interconnection processes and the abundance of planned projects will unlock further growth potential in the energy storage sector [2]. - The dominance of low-cost Chinese suppliers in the energy storage supply chain is emphasized, with recommendations to focus on integrators and companies with U.S. operations [2][3]. Market Drivers - High IRR is attributed to interest rate cuts, grid instability, and subsidies, with the EIA reporting a significant increase in energy storage installations [2][20]. - The report notes that the average IRR for energy storage projects exceeds 20%, with California's independent storage projects achieving an IRR of 28.9% [9][12]. Market Outlook - The report forecasts a 64.3% and 50% year-on-year growth in new energy storage installations for 2024 and 2025, respectively, due to a large number of planned projects and streamlined interconnection processes [2][3]. Industry Chain Analysis - The report identifies the irreplaceable role of low-cost Chinese suppliers in the energy storage market, with companies like CATL and BYD leading the battery supply segment [2][3]. - The U.S. is expected to increase tariffs on energy storage batteries from 7.5% to 25% by 2026, yet the high IRR of U.S. energy storage projects remains attractive [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrators and companies such as Sungrow Power Supply and Canadian Solar, as well as those with U.S. operations like Tongrun Equipment and Kehua Data [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, particularly focusing on OpenAI's new offerings, indicating a potential for significant growth and commercialization in AI applications [5][12]. Core Insights - OpenAI launched a $200/month ChatGPT Pro plan featuring the advanced o1 pro model, which enhances reasoning capabilities for complex issues and provides comprehensive access to powerful models and tools [2][12]. - The o1 pro mode has shown superior performance in specific fields such as data science, programming, and case law analysis, with a strict evaluation standard of 4/4 reliability for success [3][12]. - OpenAI's Reinforcement Fine-Tuning plan aims to develop expert models for complex tasks in sectors like law, insurance, healthcare, finance, and engineering, encouraging institutions to apply for participation [4][12]. - The advancements in ChatGPT Pro and o1 Pro signify a new stage in model development, enhancing the range and depth of tasks that can be addressed, thus accelerating AI commercialization [5][12]. Summary by Sections OpenAI's New Offerings - The ChatGPT Pro plan includes unlimited use of models like o1, o1-mini, GPT-4o, and advanced voice features, with plans for future productivity enhancements [2][12]. - The o1 pro mode allows for deeper reasoning and more reliable answers, outperforming previous models in challenging benchmarks [3][12]. Reinforcement Fine-Tuning Plan - This plan is designed to help developers create tailored expert models for specific complex tasks, enhancing the model's reasoning capabilities in defined fields [4][12]. - OpenAI sees potential in sectors where objective answers are crucial, such as law and finance, indicating a strategic focus on high-value applications [4][12]. Market Implications - The report highlights a watchlist of companies that could benefit from these advancements, including Wondershare Technology, ArcSoft Corporation, and Hikvision, among others [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the PCB industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for companies investing in Thailand due to the increasing application of AI and rising demand for high-layer PCBs and advanced HDI products [4][17]. Core Insights - The PCB sector outperformed the electronics sector and the CSI 300 index during the week of December 2-6, 2024, with a rise of 4.13% compared to 1.61% and 1.44% respectively [2][13]. - Significant investments are being made in the PCB industry, particularly in Vietnam and Thailand, with companies like Victory Giant Technology and Suntak Technology planning substantial capital raises for new projects [3][4][15][16]. - The trend of PCB capacity shifting to Thailand is evident, driven by the increasing demand for AI applications and server shipments [4][17]. Summary by Sections Sector Index Weekly Tracking - The SW Printed Circuit Board index rose by 4.13%, outperforming the SW Electronics index by 2.52 percentage points and the CSI 300 by 2.68 percentage points during the specified week [2][13]. Sector Stocks Weekly Tracking - The top three gainers in the PCB sector were Tianjin Printronics Circuit Corporation (25.79%), Shengyi Electronics (18.62%), and Huizhou China Eagle Electronic Technology Inc. (10.06%). The top three decliners were Founder Technology Group (-3.67%), Willgo (-1.35%), and Fastprint Circuit Tech (-0.93%) [2][14]. Key PCB Industry Investments - Victory Giant Technology plans to raise up to RMB 1.98 billion for projects in Vietnam and Thailand, with significant investments allocated for AI HDI products and high-layer PCBs [3][15]. - Suntak Technology is also investing up to RMB 500 million in overseas projects, focusing on enhancing global supply capabilities in Southeast Asia [4][16]. Investment Advice - The report recommends focusing on PCB manufacturing companies, PCB material companies, and PCB equipment companies that are investing in Thailand, as the demand for high-layer PCBs and advanced HDI is expected to grow [4][17].

Export Data - In November 2024, China's total export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, down from 12.7% in October[2] - The trade surplus expanded to $97.44 billion in November 2024[2] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 14.9%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[13] Import Data - In November 2024, China's total import value decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 2.3% in October[2] - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month import growth rate was -3.7% in November 2024[22] - Imports from the US fell by 11.2%, dragging down overall import growth by 0.7 percentage points[25] Product Contributions - Mechanical and electrical products contributed significantly to exports, with a growth rate of 7.9%, adding 4.7 percentage points to total exports[15] - Integrated circuits showed the best performance in imports, growing by 3.7% but down 6.6 percentage points from October[27] Market Outlook - Anticipation of a "rush to export" phase due to potential new tariffs from the US under a re-elected Trump administration, which may disrupt external demand[3] - The average manufacturing PMI for key trading partners in Southeast Asia rose to 50.4, indicating economic recovery[13]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/房地产 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 宏观政策积极配合，加速推动行业企稳 ——12 月政治局会议地产表态解读 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件。中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作；听取 中央纪委国家监委工作汇报，研究部署 2025 年党风廉政建设和反腐败工作。中 共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议涉及整体宏观政策调控与房地产内容主要 表达如下：实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动科技创新和产 业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击。明年要 坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集成、协同配合，实施 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超常 规逆周期调节，打好政策"组合拳"，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。 本次会议主要精神解读如下： 1）会议提出"稳住楼市股市"。自 9 月政治局会议提出"要促进房地产市场止跌回 稳"，12 月政治局会议再次重申稳定房地产市场的政策基调。我们认为，连续两 次对稳地产的积极表 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/交通运输 证券研究报告 行业周报 [Table_InvestInfo] 周报：全国铁路年发送旅客首次 突破四十亿人次 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： Nan Yu nan.yu@htisec.com Yuejiang Luo Vi.luo@htisec.com Yali Luo yl.luo@htisec.com 一周市场回顾：上证综指上涨，交运跑赢大盘，上涨 2.8%。2024.12.2-2024.12.6， 交通运输指数(+2.8%)，同期上证综指（+2.3%）。子板块绝对周涨跌幅中，公路 货运（+6.1%）、铁路运输（+5.9%）、航运（+3.7%）、航空运输（+3.7%）、 高速公路（+3.6%）、港口（+3.1%）、跨境物流（+1.4%）、公交（+0.7%）、 快递（-0.9%）、仓储物流（-5.7%）。 交运一周专题：油运价格跟踪，蒙煤运输情况跟踪，全国公路货运车流量跟踪。 航运数据观察： 2024 年 12 月 6 日，SCFI 指数收于 2256.46 点，环比前一期 （2024.11.29）+1.0%；2024 年 12 月 6 日，B ...

Economic Outlook - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 9, 2024, to analyze the economic work for 2025, emphasizing a "positive" direction for the economy[6] - The meeting noted that the overall economic operation is stable and progressing, with significant improvements in various economic indicators since October, including a recovery in manufacturing PMI and durable goods consumption[6] Policy Direction - The meeting reiterated the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" and proposed a more proactive macroeconomic policy for 2025, focusing on high-quality development and deepening reforms[7] - "Extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" were introduced, indicating a shift from traditional growth stabilization tools to more innovative measures[7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy were emphasized, with expectations for an increase in the deficit ratio to around 3.5-4.0%[8] - Structural monetary policies are expected to continue, with potential adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio by 25-50 basis points to support liquidity[8] Domestic Demand Expansion - The meeting highlighted the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency, with a stronger focus on expanding domestic demand compared to previous meetings[10] - Policies such as the "old-for-new" consumption initiative are anticipated to gain further momentum in 2025[10] Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - The meeting explicitly stated the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, reflecting a proactive stance on these sectors[11] - Recent policies have shown improvements in real estate sales, particularly in the second-hand housing market, indicating a focus on stabilizing expectations[11]