[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 [Table_InvestInfo] 国铁发布 24 年第二批动车高级修采购公 告，五级修占比 63.90% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件。根据国铁采购平台，2024 年 8 月 16 日，国铁集团发布 2024 年第二批动 车组高级修采购项目招标公告，本次招标共涉及 472.625 组动车组高级修，其中 三级修 / 四 级 修 / 五 级 修 分 别 为 24/146.625/302 组 ， 占 比 分 别 为 5.08%/31.02%/63.90%。 2024 年以来动车组维保需求呈现高景气，业内招投标量持续走强。从国铁招标 情况来看，2023 年全年国铁集团三级修/四级修/五级修招标量分别为 69/113/108 组，占比分别为 23.79%/38.97%/37.24%。今年以来国铁集团已发布两次动车组高 级修招标项目，包括本次采购项目在内，三级修/四级修/五级修需求分别为 56/268.25/509 组，相比 2023 年全年减少 19%、增加 102%、增加 371%，三级修/ 四级修/五级修占比分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Medical System Holdings (867 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.96 per share, up 0.6% from the previous target of HKD 9.90 [8][10] Core Views - The impact of centralized procurement (VBP) has largely been cleared, and future price reductions for VBP products are expected to be limited [4] - The company is transitioning into a growth phase driven by exclusive and innovative products, with steady progress in its R&D pipeline [5] - The aesthetic medicine, ophthalmology, and Southeast Asia businesses are gradually being established and are expected to contribute incremental growth next year [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2024 was RMB 4.29 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 22.6%, but a sequential increase of 8.9% [3] - Gross margin was 62.7%, down 1.7 percentage points year-over-year, with a sequential decrease of 0.5 percentage points [3] - Net profit was RMB 900 million, down 52.8% year-over-year, but up 92.8% sequentially [3] - R&D expenditure reached RMB 620 million, up 160.2% year-over-year, accounting for 14.5% of revenue [3] Business Segments - Cardio-cerebrovascular segment revenue was RMB 1.52 billion, down 28.8% year-over-year [3] - Gastroenterology/autoimmune segment revenue was RMB 1.35 billion, down 25.0% year-over-year [3] - Ophthalmology segment revenue rose to RMB 300 million, up 23.9% year-over-year [3] - Dermatology and aesthetics segment revenue was RMB 280 million, up 11.9% year-over-year [3] Centralized Procurement Impact - Revenue from three VBP products (Dailixin, Boyiding, and Yousifu) was RMB 1.23 billion, down 49.2% year-over-year, meeting the company's guidance of a 50% sales retention rate [4] - The negative impact of VBP on these products has been largely absorbed, with Yousifu expected to face a further 5% price reduction in H2 2024 [4] Innovation and R&D - Non-VBP exclusive and innovative products accounted for 56.1% of total drug sales revenue, with combined sales of RMB 2.4 billion in H1 2024 [5] - The company has five approved innovative drugs covering six indications, with two new drugs approved in 2024 [5] - Approximately 10 innovative drugs are in clinical development in China, with Desidustat Tablets under CDE review and Ruxolitinib Cream approved for vitiligo in Macau [5] Aesthetic Medicine and Ophthalmology - Tildrakizumab Solution for Injection was approved in China in May 2023 for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, with potential to capture market share from Cosentyx [7] - Ophthalmology products, including Esculin and Digitalisglycosides Eye Drops and the EyeOP1 Glaucoma Treatment Device, achieved sales of RMB 300 million in H1 2024 [7] Southeast Asia Business - Ruxolitinib Cream is expected to launch in Southeast Asia in H2 2025 [7] - A collaboration with Junshi Biosciences was established in March 2024 to commercialize Toripalimab in Southeast Asia, with sales expected to begin in H2 2025 [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 were adjusted to RMB 8.26 billion and RMB 9.19 billion, respectively, representing year-over-year increases of 3.1% and 11.2% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2025 was adjusted to RMB 1.87 billion and RMB 2.07 billion, respectively [8] - The company was assigned a 13x PE ratio for 2024, based on comparable companies such as Huadong Medicine (16x PE), Sino Biopharmaceutical (18x PE), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (11x PE) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sinopec Engineering (Group) [3][12][16] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 28.55 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.32 billion, up 0.1% year-on-year [5][15] - The company reported a mid-term dividend payout ratio of 50%, with a declared dividend of RMB 0.15 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.5% based on the closing price on August 16, 2024 [5][15] - New contract amounts reached a historic high of RMB 50.066 billion in the first half of 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 32.7% [6][9] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 28.55 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.32 billion [5][15] - The company repurchased a total of 13.8 million shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, utilizing HKD 67.8 million [15] - The company’s new contracts included significant projects such as the Huizhou Ethylene project, contributing to the overall growth [6][9] Contract Details - The new contracts included major projects such as the EPC contract for the Fujian Gulei Ethylene project worth RMB 6.081 billion and the EPC contract for the Northern Huajin Fine Chemical project worth RMB 5.807 billion [7][9] - The company’s overseas contracts accounted for 34% of the total new contracts, with a notable year-on-year increase of 117.8% [6][9] Segment Performance - The engineering contracting segment generated revenue of RMB 16.68 billion, up 18% year-on-year, while the construction segment achieved revenue of RMB 13.09 billion, reflecting a 16% increase [9][10] - The design consulting and technology licensing segment saw a decline in revenue to RMB 1.52 billion, down 12% year-on-year [9][10] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profits for 2024-2026 is RMB 2.64 billion, RMB 3.05 billion, and RMB 3.62 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.60, RMB 0.69, and RMB 0.82 [12][16] - The target price is set at RMB 6.30 / HK$ 6.81, based on a P/E multiple of 10.5x for 2024 [12][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Weilong [2][10]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2024, Weilong achieved revenue of 2.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, and a profit of 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9% [6][10]. - Vegetable products have become the largest category, with significant growth in seasoned noodle products, which resumed growth for the first time since early 2022 [7][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 49.8%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased capacity utilization and a decline in raw material prices [8][10]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.16 yuan per share for 2024H1, totaling 376 million yuan, which is approximately 60% of the net profit for the period [9][10]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue from vegetable products, seasoned noodle products, and soy products in 2024H1 was 1.35 billion, 1.46 billion, and 120 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.0%, 56.6%, and 17.5% [7][10]. - The net profit margin for 2024H1 was 21.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8][10]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 5.83 billion, 6.69 billion, and 7.56 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.05 billion, 1.21 billion, and 1.39 billion yuan [10]. - The expected EPS for 2024 to 2026 is 0.45, 0.52, and 0.57 yuan respectively [10]. Valuation - Based on comparable company valuations, Weilong is assigned a target price of HK$9.77, reflecting a 20 times PE ratio for 2024 [10].

Equity – Asia Research 日本医药行业比较研究系列二 ——日本医药企业的共性和启示 The Commonalities and Enlightenment of the Japanese Pharmaceutical Industry 孟科含 Kehan Meng, kh.meng@htisec.com 孙旭东 Xudong Sun, xd.sun@htisec.com 2024年8月19日 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 主要观点 1、综合来看，当前日本医药企业存在三方面共性，1）定位清晰，深耕优势疾病领域；2）出海企业普遍为学 习型企业，与跨国药企合作研发提升技术；3）重视股东回报，长期稳定分红。 2、 ...

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 2024-08-19 短期有扰动，长期有潜力 ——2024 年 7 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 7 月，国内需求有待进一步提振，但经济中仍有表现积极的板块。出口的小 幅扰动、极端天气影响、地产优化政策的效果减弱，使得生产、服务消费、 地产和制造业投资都面临小幅调整的压力。且随着毕业季临近，失业率再度 回升，重点地区和人群的就业问题仍需关注。不过我们也注意到，商品消费、 电力投资等板块仍表现亮眼，对经济有一定支撑。下一阶段，我们认为政策 或将更关注稳增长，适时发力以应对多变的外部环境，加大力度扩大内需、 提振信心，促进经济高质量发展。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，各项稳增长政策效果不及预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 宏观研究—宏观专题报告 2 日 录 1. 2. 3. | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------| | | | | | 7月经济：有待提拆，长期 ...

宏观研究 证券研究报告 [Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观周报 2024-08-18 食品涨价，建材跌价 ——国内高频指标跟踪（2024 年第 31 期） [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 地产销售低位震荡，地产相关板块表现偏弱。消费方面，服务消费整体弱于 往年，耐用品消费中汽车销量虽有回落但绝对值仍高，非耐用品消费如纺织 服装需求回升。投资领域，基建资金面和项目面均有压力，地产销售持续边 际走低，土地市场承压。进出口方面，韩国进出口和我国港口数据显示，出 口增速或有减缓。生产领域，钢铁和煤电行业走弱，但石化和汽车行业显示 出一定的需求支撑。库存方面，煤炭库存回升，建材库存下降。物价方面， 食品价格持续上涨，支撑 CPI 走强，而建材价格整体走弱，或因下游需求不 足。流动性方面，R007 小幅回落，美元指数震荡下行，人民币相对走强。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策不及预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 宏观研究—'宏观周报 2 图目录 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------- ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts can be categorized into two types: crisis relief cuts and preventive cuts, with the former typically having larger and longer-lasting reductions[1] - Since 1982, the Federal Reserve has implemented 4 crisis relief cuts and 5 preventive cuts, with the key distinction being whether the U.S. economy is in recession at the time of the cut[7] - Crisis relief cuts are often triggered by significant economic crises, while preventive cuts occur in response to signs of economic slowdown[23] Group 2: Asset Performance During Rate Cuts - Equity assets tend to perform better during preventive rate cut periods, while they are more likely to decline during crisis relief cuts[2] - Bond yields generally decrease and prices increase during both types of rate cuts, with U.S. Treasury yields typically declining post-cut[5] - The U.S. dollar usually weakens following rate cuts, while commodity prices show a weaker correlation, with gold prices rising more significantly during crisis relief cuts[2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The 1989 rate cut cycle, initiated to address the savings and loan crisis, saw a total reduction of 681 basis points over 40 months[15] - The 2001 rate cuts, aimed at countering the dot-com bubble burst, resulted in a cumulative reduction of 550 basis points over 30 months[16] - Current expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which, combined with improving domestic fundamentals, may elevate market levels[6]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 19 Aug 2024 美国非银行金融 US Non-Bank Financials 虚拟资产周报：预计比特币价格短期仍受压制，上周 ETF 交易量缩减 Crypto Weekly: BTC Price Still Under Pressure, ETF Volume Shrank Last Week 周琦 Nicole Zhou, CFA 杨林 Lin Yang nicole.q.zhou@htisec.com lin.yang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 涨跌幅回顾 8/12-8/16，BTC -1.6%，ETH 涨幅 +1.2%，SOL 跌幅 -8.2%。标普 500+3.9%、纳斯达克综合指数+5.3%、上证综指 +0.6%，恒生指数+2.0%，黄金+3.2%。 重点关注事件 卖压可能源自于美国政府曾经没收的比特币。根据 Arkham，1 万个比特币（ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for RoboSense (2498 HK) [1][10][4] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, RoboSense achieved revenue of Rmb727 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 121%. The gross profit was Rmb99 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 672.8%, resulting in a gross profit margin of 13.6%, up by 9.68 percentage points year-on-year [1][10] - The company recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of Rmb269 million, which is a 65.1% reduction in losses compared to the previous year, with a net profit margin of -37% [1][10] - In the second quarter of 2024, revenue reached Rmb366 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 98.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4%. The gross profit was Rmb54 million, with a year-on-year increase of 190.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.6%, leading to a gross profit margin of 14.8% [1][10] - Shipments in the first half of 2024 were close to the total shipments for the entire previous year, with scale effects offsetting the impact of annual price declines [1][10] - The company expects to launch its Rmb1,000-level MX model in the first quarter of 2025, with overseas business development anticipated to enhance mid-to-long-term growth potential [1][10] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for RoboSense for 2024-2026 is Rmb2.145 billion, Rmb3.700 billion, and Rmb5.800 billion respectively, with estimated EPS of Rmb-1.05, Rmb-0.52, and Rmb0.18 [1][10] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 19.7% by 2026 [2][9] - The company’s operating expenses are projected to decrease, with significant improvements in the expense ratio noted in the first half of 2024 [1][10] Market Position - RoboSense's LiDAR products are expected to see increased sales, with projected sales volumes of 24,000 units in 2024, rising to 200,000 units by 2026 [2][9] - The average selling price (ASP) for ADAS LiDAR is expected to decrease from Rmb3,238 in 2024 to Rmb2,600 in 2026, while the ASP for robotics LiDAR is projected to remain stable at Rmb8,000 [2][9]