Core Insights - The chemical industry is entering a favorable phase driven by demand, value, and supply dynamics [5][6][7] - Global supply constraints and the exit of European capacities are expected to enhance the market environment for the chemical sector [7] Demand Drivers - Key opportunities identified in various sectors include: - Gas turbine upstream: companies like Zhenhua Co., Yingliu Co., Longda Co., and Wanze Co. [5] - Refrigerants and fluorinated liquids: companies such as Juhua Co., New Zhoubang, and Runhe Materials [5] - Energy storage supply chain: including Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, Yuntianhua, Batian Co., and others [5] - Semiconductor materials: companies like Yanggu Huatai, Wanrun Co., Dinglong Co., and others [5] Value Drivers - Potential for increased dividend yields in sectors such as: - Coal chemical: Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Baofeng Energy [6] - Oil refining: Hengli Petrochemical, Satellite Chemical, and Sinopec [6] - Phosphate fertilizers: Yuntianhua, Yuntu Holdings, and others [6] Supply Drivers - Domestic anti-involution policies and the exit of European production capacities are expected to support the chemical industry: - PTA and polyester filament: companies like Xin Fengming and Tongkun Co. [7] - Tire manufacturing: including Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and others [7] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Selected companies with profit forecasts include: - Zhenhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 6.04 billion, PE: 21.8) [8] - Yingliu Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 4.08 billion, PE: 42.7) [8] - Longda Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 1.06 billion, PE: 34.9) [8] - Wanze Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 2.37 billion, PE: 32.9) [8] - Juhua Co. (Net profit forecast for 2025: 48.14 billion, PE: 24.4) [8] Industry Cycle Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with demand recovery and supply-side reforms driving growth [14][21] - The chemical price index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upturn in the market [20][21]

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

磷矿石是上游主要原材料，黄磷、磷酸是重要中间体，下游产品主要用于农业和工业两大领域。磷化工产业链上游原料主要是磷矿石和硫磺，按工艺的不 同，磷矿石可以直接与无机酸（硫酸等）反应制成磷酸，接着加工成各种磷化工产品；也可以先制得黄磷，再制成磷酸。下游磷化工产品主要分为两大 类： 一类是应用于农业中，如以磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵及磷酸氢钙为代表的磷肥，或草甘膦等含磷农药；另一类则是广泛用于工业、食品、医药领域的磷酸盐， 包括三聚磷酸钠、六偏磷酸钠等。 磷化工上游主要是磷矿石，磷酸是重要中间体，下游产品用于农业/工业领域。 我国磷化工产业基础优良，产业高质量发展仍受制约。近年来，我国依托相对丰富的磷矿资源和完善的产业基础，磷化工产业取得了长足发展： 一是产业规模全球领先，已是全球最大的磷矿石、磷化学品生产国； 二是产业体系较为完备，形成磷矿开采，黄磷、磷酸、磷酸盐、磷化物等系列产品生产的完整产业链； 三是集约发展具备较好基础，磷资源开采、黄磷及磷肥生产均主要集聚在云南、贵州、湖北、四川等四省，形成了云南安宁产业园、瓮安经济开发区化工 园区、湖北宜都化工园、绵竹新市化工园区等一批特色磷化工园区，培育了以贵州磷化、云南云天化、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has indicated that rising sulfur raw material costs are being passed on to end prices, reflecting an upward trend in the prices of major phosphate chemical products [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average market price for 73% industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate is currently 6553 yuan/ton [1] - The average market price for calcium hydrogen phosphate is 3842 yuan/ton [1] - The average market price for 55% fertilizer-grade monoammonium phosphate is 3614 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Company Operations - The company possesses an integrated industrial chain advantage, from phosphate mining to product production [1] - Overall production and operation remain stable [1]

证券日报网12月10日讯川发龙蟒（002312）在11月20日至12月10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司控股股 东方四川发展(控股)公司自身拥有丰富的磷矿、锂矿、钒钛矿、铁矿、铅锌矿等稀缺资源，公司为四川 发展(控股)公司在矿业化工领域唯一的产业及资本运作上市公司平台，控股股东方于2022年为公司注入 上游磷矿资源天瑞矿业，于2024年注入斯曼措沟锂辉石矿；同时，公司于2025年竞得控股股东四川省先 进材料集团全资子公司天盛矿业10%股权，取得旗下雷波县小沟磷矿参股权，小沟磷矿累计探获磷矿石 资源量4.01亿吨，设计生产规模550万吨/年，已有工程矿产出。此外，四川发展(控股)公司间接持股老 虎洞磷矿，矿区范围内合计保有资源量约3.7亿吨，设计产能500万吨/年，系国内少有的优质磷矿，已 有工程矿产出。未来公司控股股东方将继续帮助和支持公司获取优质资源，完善产业链，巩固一体化优 势。如未来涉及相关应披露事项，公司将严格按照相关法律法规要求履行信息披露义务。 ...

证券日报网12月10日讯川发龙蟒（002312）在11月20日至12月10日回答调研者提问时表示，天宝公司深 耕磷酸钙盐饲料添加剂领域多年，产业基础扎实，经营管理、成本控制水平较好，产能稳定、客户稳 定，目前拥有45万吨/年饲料级磷酸氢钙产能、25万吨/年磷酸二氢钙(一二钙)、35万吨/年肥料级磷酸氢 钙产能、25万吨/年铁精粉产能、50万吨/年硫铁矿制酸装置。2024年全年公司生产各类磷化工产品合计 237.23万吨，产量同比增长16.89%。收购完成后，公司传统磷化工产品的总产能增加至315万吨/年，公 司市场竞争力和抗风险能力进一步提升。 ...

证券日报网12月10日讯川发龙蟒（002312）在11月20日至12月10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司坚定打 造新能源材料产业第二增长曲线，目前相关项目进展顺利，进一步夯实了"硫-磷-钛-铁-锂-钙"多资源循 环经济产业链，强化核心竞争力。其中德阿项目6万吨/年磷酸铁锂装置已全面建成并投产使用，10万 吨/年磷酸铁装置目前正在进行试生产工作，50万吨/年硫磺制酸装置竣工完成视市场情况开车；攀枝花 项目5万吨/年磷酸铁装置、30万吨/年硫磺制酸装置已投产使用。 ...

证券日报网12月10日讯 川发龙蟒在11月20日至12月10日回答调研者提问时表示，公司积极响应国家保 供稳价号召，获得工信部《感谢信》书面表扬，始终坚持依法、合规、市场化的原则开展出口业务，充 分把握国内国际两个市场供需格局变化情况，策略性调整产品国内国际销售比例，提升公司整体盈利能 力。2025年1-6月公司国外收入为5.20亿元，同比增长112.91%。 （编辑 丛可心 王雪儿） ...

证券日报网12月10日讯 川发龙蟒在11月20日至12月10日回答调研者提问时表示，为进一步强化公司新 能源材料板块业务布局，有效发挥公司在磷化工及新材料领域的资源、产业、技术等优势，优化公司产 品结构，公司全资子公司德阳川发龙蟒拟在四川省绵竹市德阳—阿坝生态经济产业园投资3.66亿元建设 10万吨/年磷酸二氢锂等项目。公司未来的资本开支将继续紧密围绕"稀缺资源+核心技术+产业整合+先 进机制"发展战略开展，通过"内生增长+外延收购"并重等举措进一步巩固产业链竞争优势，主要在确保 公司在磷化工细分领域中保持行业领先地位的基础上，积极向产业链上下游纵深发展，重点布局上游优 质矿产资源以及下游新能源材料业务，进一步优化公司资产结构，提高公司盈利能力。 （编辑 丛可心 王雪儿） ...

证券代码：002312 证券简称：川发龙蟒 四川发展龙蟒股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-007 | | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关 系活动 | 媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | 类别 | 新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 其他 | | 参与单位 | 中信证券、东方证券、国金证券、天风证券、长城证券、中泰证券、中金证券、华泰证券、 | | 名称及 | Millennium、东方红、招商信诺、博时基金、国寿资产、招银理财、建信养老、盘京投资、 | | 人员姓名 | 海子投资、泽源投资、浙江纳轩、银杏长青等机构（以上排名不分先后） | | | 年 月 日 2025 11 20 10:00-12:00 | | | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 15:00-17:00 | | | 年 月 日 2025 12 01 17:00-18:00 | | | 2025 年 12 月 02 日 13:30-15:00 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 12 02 15:00-17:00 | | | 2025 年 12 月 04 日 10: ...