行业动态报告 · 银行业 社融信贷开门红超预期,关注两会政策空间 2025 年 2 月 28 日 核心观点 银行业 推荐 维持 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 网: zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 2025-02-26 相对沪深 300 表现图 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 社融信贷开门红超预期,对公强、零售弱:1月新增社融 7.06万亿元,同比 ● 多增 5833 亿元,1月末社融存量同比增长 8.03%。1月,人民币贷款增加 5.22 万亿元,单月新增规模创历史新高。新增政府债 6933亿元,同比多增 3986 亿 元,仍为拉动社融增长的主要来源。春节错位叠加收入预期偏弱影响下,居民 贷款同比少增 5363 亿元。企业贷款多增 9200 亿元,预计主要由于两重两新 等财政政策发力下各地重大项目储备足、开工早,同时化债集中扰动减小。受 春 ...

行业深度报告 · 房地产行业 内生和外生因素支撑下的需求中枢 3 月策略专题报告 居民购房持续释放。从销售看,一线城市的二手房市场表现整体较好,虽受 ● 春节假期的影响,但同比表现优于 2024年同期,表现出核心城市楼市的韧性。 根据中指院数据,我们将新房和二手房市场汇总发现,28个重点城市 2025年 1 月整体销售面积同比微降 0.89%,考虑到 2025年 1 月末为春节假期,我们 认为 28 地的城市逐渐表现止跌回稳的态势。从拿地看,2025年 1 月百城土地 成交建面中一线城市占比达 28.07%,房企拿地趋于核心;2025年 1 月百城土 地成交溢价率为 8.73%,是 2021年 8 月以来的最高水平;2025年 2 月上海 士拍平均溢价率 33.56%,是 2019年以来最高水平。 2025年2月 26 日 房地产行业 2025-2-25 相对沪深 300 表现图 40% 20% 0% -20% 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】房地产行业深度报告_城镇化的困境 之斗 2. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_积极探索新 模式,助力地产止跌回稳 3. 【银河地产】行业深度_房地产 2025 年度策略: ...

传媒互联网行业 维持 推荐 分析师 岳铮 ☎：010-8092-7630 @: yuezheng_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030006 行业点评报告 ·传媒互联网行业 DeepSeek 开源周： 开源模式有望重塑市场格局 人工智能动态点评 核心观点 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 研究助理 祁天睿 ☎：010-8092-7603 网:qitianrui_yj@chinastock.com.cn 2025-2-28 相对沪深 300 表现图 相关研究 【银河传媒互联网】2025年年度策略_三大逻辑,攻 守兼备 【银河传媒互联网】行业点评_微信百度接入 Deepseek,流量入口加速 AI 渗透 【银河传媒互联网】行业点评_VideoWorld 模型开 源，探索模型训练新路径 2025 年 2 月 28 日 ● 事件:DeepSeek 于 2025年 2 月 24 日正式启动"开源周",计划在 2 月 24 日-28 日连续 5 天每天开源一个项目。 Day1-FlashMLA:动态 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Suzhou Axis Co., Ltd. (stock code: 430418.BJ) [2][5][7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 715.44 million and a net profit of 150.87 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% and 21.3% respectively [5][7] - The stock price has increased by 83.4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the North Exchange 50 index, which rose by 29.1% [5] - The company is benefiting from the acceleration of globalization and the transition to intelligent manufacturing, which enhances production efficiency [5][6] - The domestic market is diversifying, with active expansion into aerospace, industrial automation, and high-end equipment sectors [5][6] - The embodied intelligence sector is gaining momentum, with significant growth expected in the domestic market for intelligent robots [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected financials indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenues expected to reach 913.24 million in 2025 and 1,182.97 million in 2026, representing growth rates of 27.65% and 29.54% respectively [7][9] - The net profit is forecasted to grow to 195.54 million in 2025 and 253.86 million in 2026, with growth rates of 29.61% and 29.83% respectively [7][9] - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.11 in 2024 to 1.87 in 2026 [7][9] Market Trends and Opportunities - The domestic market for embodied intelligent robots is projected to grow from approximately 418.6 billion in 2023 to over 500 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 10.9% [5][6] - The automotive sector, which accounts for about 43% of bearing applications, is expected to benefit from government policies promoting vehicle upgrades and replacements [6][7] - The company has established stable partnerships with major global Tier 1 manufacturers, enhancing its market position and reducing the risk of supplier changes [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious recommendation for the company Klait (831689.BJ) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 529 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.08%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.94% to approximately 54.55 million yuan [3][4] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased R&D and salary expenses, alongside a slowdown in revenue growth due to intensified market competition [3][4] - The wind turbine industry continues to grow, with applications expanding across various sectors, suggesting potential ongoing benefits for the company [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 528.79 million yuan, with a growth rate of 4.07% [4][7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 54.55 million yuan, a decrease of 9.95% compared to the previous year [4][7] - The company’s EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.74 yuan, with a PE ratio of 33.90 times [4][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 5.29 billion yuan, 5.71 billion yuan, and 5.99 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 4.07%, 7.98%, and 4.97% [3][4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 0.55 billion yuan, 0.69 billion yuan, and 0.72 billion yuan, with a projected growth of -9.95%, 26.13%, and 3.99% respectively [3][4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 30% over the forecast period [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the public utility sector [1][6]. Core Insights - The overall goal of the "2025 Energy Work Guidance Opinion" emphasizes energy security and green transition, aiming to enhance energy supply capacity and promote steady growth in energy production [4]. - The report highlights a more proactive stance on new energy projects compared to previous years, with expectations for significant increases in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [4][5]. - The report anticipates that the coal supply will remain relatively abundant in 2025, with coal prices expected to decline further, improving profitability for coal-fired power plants [5][6]. - The long-term growth potential for nuclear power is confirmed, with several provinces signaling positive development for nuclear projects [4][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy - The report indicates that the 2025 guidance is more optimistic about new energy projects, with a target of over 300 GW of new installed capacity expected, including 119 GW from wind and 213 GW from solar [4][5]. - It also mentions the need for innovative pricing mechanisms and consumption methods for new energy, which could lead to marginal improvements in market participation [4]. Hydropower and Nuclear - The report projects that pumped storage capacity will reach over 62 million kW by 2025, with significant annual additions expected [4]. - Nuclear power is expected to see a stable approval rate for new projects, with various provinces actively pursuing nuclear energy development [4][5]. Coal Power - The report notes that the recent decline in coal prices could reverse negative market expectations for coal-fired power in 2025, suggesting a potential improvement in profitability for companies with significant coal exposure [5][6]. - It emphasizes the importance of coal as a reliable energy source while transitioning to non-fossil energy [5]. Investment Recommendations - For green energy, the report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy, anticipating a boost in demand due to energy consumption targets [6]. - For coal power, it recommends companies with significant coal exposure and limited price declines, such as Zhejiang Energy and Huaneng International [6]. - For hydropower and nuclear, it highlights the long-term value of these sectors, recommending companies like China Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [6].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report predicts that the 10-year government bond yield in 2025 will fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.9%, with a reasonable level at 1.64% if the central bank lowers the policy rate by 40 basis points throughout the year [7] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to hover around 7.3, with potential fluctuations between 7.1 and 7.5 depending on future US tariff actions [7] - The report highlights a shift in monetary policy priorities towards financial stability and exchange rate stability, forming a "triangle" of stock, bond, and currency policy [2][3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for March 2025 emphasizes a balanced approach, focusing on growth-oriented value stocks that benefit from favorable policies and strong earnings expectations [11][9] - Key sectors for investment include technology and consumer sectors, which are expected to perform well due to policy support and anticipated earnings surprises [11][9] - The report notes that the upcoming National People's Congress and the peak of annual report disclosures in March present structural investment opportunities [11][9] Group 3: Industry Analysis - Thermal Power - The thermal power industry is characterized by strong profitability and stability, with combined heat and power (CHP) systems showing significant energy efficiency advantages [18][19] - The average gross profit margin for the thermal power business has been between 20% and 32% since 2020, indicating a robust financial performance compared to traditional coal-fired power [19][20] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with favorable valuation levels and dividend yields, as well as those benefiting from asset injections and expansion of the industrial chain [21][20] Group 4: Company Analysis - Trip.com Group - Trip.com Group reported a revenue of 53.3 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, with a significant growth in international business [24] - The company’s international business has shown strong recovery, with outbound travel services exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 120% [25] - Despite a decline in profit margins due to increased marketing expenses, the long-term growth potential in international markets remains promising, supported by AI technology applications [27][26]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to the company, indicating a performance expectation within a range of -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index [13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience a slight revenue growth of 3.02% in 2024, followed by a more robust growth of 6.94% in 2025 and 5.41% in 2026 [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 3,085.69 million in 2023 to 3,899.30 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.91% [5][7]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually from 15.89% in 2023 to 16.51% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5][7]. Financial Projections Income Statement - Revenue is expected to rise from 39,544.34 million in 2023 to 45,923.38 million in 2026, with a projected revenue growth rate of 6.94% in 2025 [5][7]. - The operating profit is anticipated to grow from 3,296.44 million in 2023 to 4,393.45 million in 2026, with an operating profit margin of 9.83% in 2026 [7]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 7.80% in 2023 to 8.49% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [7]. Balance Sheet - Total assets are expected to grow from 50,550.75 million in 2023 to 59,971.16 million in 2026, indicating a healthy asset growth trajectory [6]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 26,051.21 million in 2023 to 33,465.63 million in 2026, demonstrating strong shareholder value creation [6]. Cash Flow Statement - Operating cash flow is forecasted to decrease slightly from 6,617.50 million in 2023 to 6,085.52 million in 2024, before rising to 7,746.91 million in 2026 [6]. - The net cash increase is expected to rise significantly from 6.04 million in 2023 to 2,270.22 million in 2026, indicating improved liquidity [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the international competitiveness of Chinese consumer export leaders, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the consumer sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing shift of production capacity from China to countries like Mexico and Vietnam due to U.S. tariff policies, with Mexico surpassing China as the largest source of imports to the U.S. in 2023 [2][5]. - It emphasizes that major consumer export companies have successfully established overseas production bases, mitigating the impact of tariffs on their market share and allowing for growth during capacity transitions [2][5]. - The report suggests that while short-term tariff impacts may affect pricing and profitability, these effects are expected to diminish over time as companies adapt [2][5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Production Shifts - U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada are set to increase, with a 25% tariff on non-energy goods starting April 2, 2025 [2]. - The report notes a significant decline in the proportion of imports from China, with projections for 2024 showing imports from China at 13.8%, down from 21.9% in 2017 [2][4]. Company Strategies and Performance - Companies like Haier, Hisense, and TCL have diversified their production across various countries, including Mexico, to maintain competitiveness in the U.S. market [5]. - The report lists specific companies and their production capacities in Mexico, indicating a strategic focus on meeting U.S. demand while navigating tariff challenges [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the home appliance sector such as Haier and Hisense, as well as companies in the light industry and agriculture sectors, highlighting their robust international growth potential [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Insights - The home appliance industry is benefiting from national subsidy policies, with a notable increase in demand and improved profitability [3][5] - The market is expected to see a recovery in sales due to the "old-for-new" policy, which has significantly boosted consumer spending [5][10] - Companies with international supply chain capabilities are likely to benefit from changes in U.S. tariff policies [25] Summary by Sections National Subsidy Policy - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy has significantly boosted home appliance sales, with retail sales reaching 1,030.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 12.3% year-on-year increase [5] - The subsidy has led to a notable increase in the average selling price of appliances, enhancing industry profitability [3] White Goods - Home air conditioning sales are expected to grow due to continued subsidy support, with January 2025 domestic sales at 7.21 million units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [28] - The export of home air conditioners saw a 17% increase in January 2025, indicating strong overseas demand [28] Black Goods - The global market for televisions is improving, with a projected retail volume of 30.86 million units in 2024, a decrease of only 2% year-on-year, while retail revenue increased by 16% [66] Cleaning Appliances - The cleaning appliance sector is experiencing strong growth, with online retail sales in January 2025 reaching 22.4 billion yuan, a 10.1% year-on-year increase [76] Industry Performance - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue of 1,187.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [88] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 92.715 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.41% increase year-on-year [88] Valuation - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the home appliance industry is 15.52, below the historical average of 17.71 since 2008, indicating long-term investment value [98] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading home appliance companies that are globally competitive and benefit from domestic subsidies, such as Hisense, Stone Technology, Midea Group, and Haier [102]