国银河证券|CGS 大拐点 大机遇：资本市场赋能高质量发展 分析师：杨超 研究助理：王雪莹 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 策略研究 · 专题报告 大拐点 大机遇:资本市场赋能高质量发展 核心观点: ● 国内经济面临结构调整的压力:国内经济正处在新旧动能切换的转型期,依 靠传统要素扩张形成的驱动力正在减弱。要实现经济高质量发展,未来需更多 转向以数据和信息技术为代表的创新驱动发展。在这一过程中,资本不仅是重 要的生产要素,更是带动各类生产要素集聚配置的重要纽带。要实现资源的合 理配置,强化服务实体经济发展的功能,就离不开资本市场的作用发挥。 ● 资本市场发挥什么功能:(1)融资端:资本市场作为直接融资的渠道,有助 于为企业提供长期的、稳定的资金来源。尤其是在加快发展新质生产力的大背 景下,股权融资契合创新企业的融资需要。同时,并购虽组作为资本市场的垂 要工具,有助于提升资源配置效率、推动产业升级和产能出清。通过价值发现 机制,市场能够有效地将资本配置给优质企业。资本市场的发展也在推动企业 治理水平的优化。(2)从投资端看,股权投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" recommendation for Yunlu Co., Ltd. [1][3] Core Views - Yunlu Co., Ltd. is a global leader in the amorphous alloy industry, with rapid revenue and net profit growth. The company has focused on advanced magnetic metal materials for years, expanding from amorphous alloys to include nanocrystalline and magnetic powder materials, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2% in revenue and 41.7% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Yunlu Co., Ltd. (688190.SH) was established in December 2015 and is controlled by the China Aviation Engine Group. The company has developed a comprehensive solution provider in advanced magnetic metal materials, focusing on R&D, production, and application [16][18]. 2. Amorphous Alloy Business - The amorphous alloy is a core material for amorphous transformers, with diverse downstream applications. The demand for amorphous materials is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% from 2024 to 2027, driven by energy-efficient transformer policies [3][40][50]. - The company has built a production base for 100,000 tons of amorphous strip and is expected to benefit significantly from the increasing penetration of amorphous transformers in the market [3][23]. 3. Nanocrystalline and Magnetic Powder Business - The nanocrystalline and magnetic powder segments are rapidly growing, with the global market for nanocrystalline materials projected to grow from $349 million in 2023 to $721 million by 2029, at a CAGR of 12.9% [3][18]. - The company achieved sales of 5,060 tons of nanocrystalline products in 2023, with revenue of 227 million yuan, positioning it in the second tier globally [3][18]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 359 million yuan, 438 million yuan, and 524 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26.1x, 21.4x, and 17.9x [3][7]. 5. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has established a strong market presence, exporting to 18 countries and regions, and has formed stable partnerships with major players in the power electronics industry [21][23]. - The penetration rate of amorphous motors is expected to increase rapidly, with significant growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [3][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.38 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.18% to 337 million yuan [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual realization of domestic substitution in the chemical luminescence industry, as new procurement projects are anticipated to commence [1]. - High investment in R&D continues, with a focus on new reagent projects and instrument platform development, enhancing the company's competitive strength [1]. - The company has received multiple medical device registrations recently, which will enrich its product offerings and improve overall competitiveness [1]. - The short-term performance is impacted by factors such as DRG implementation and industry restructuring, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [1]. Financial Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.38 billion yuan (+4.24%) and a net profit of 956 million yuan (+6.13%) [1]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 45.42 billion yuan, 54.68 billion yuan, and 65.67 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 2.20%, 20.40%, and 20.09% [3]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.32 billion yuan, 1.60 billion yuan, and 1.95 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.77%, 20.98%, and 21.80% [3]. - The company's EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 2.28 yuan, 2.76 yuan, and 3.36 yuan, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 39.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.1 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue grew by 16.9% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 15% [1]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% in Q3 and 15.9% for the first three quarters. However, the growth rate of series liquor slowed down, with Q3 revenue up 13.1% year-on-year and 24.4% for the first three quarters. The report suggests that the company needs to cautiously adjust the short-term supply-demand balance for Moutai liquor, anticipating a slowdown in revenue growth in Q4 due to a high price base [1][2]. - The report indicates a slowdown in the growth of wholesale and agency channels, with Q3 revenue from these channels increasing by 9.7% year-on-year, while direct sales channels saw a 23.5% increase. The direct sales channel accounted for 46% of total revenue in Q3 [2]. - The net profit margin for Moutai liquor in Q3 was 47.7%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.99 percentage points, attributed to an increase in tax and sales expense ratios [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 173.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.04%. The net profit is expected to reach 84.5 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of 13.03%. The diluted EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 67.25 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 21, and 19 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in Q3 operational data, with revenue of 533 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.26%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.59% to 231 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 242 million yuan, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 187.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.6%. Net profit for Q3 reached 126 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 254.2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 178.4% [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in demand, as indicated by rapid sales growth, despite the lack of revenue contribution from ongoing projects leading to increased depreciation and rising unit production costs [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control, with a gross margin of 61.3% for the first three quarters, down 14.4 percentage points year-on-year, but showing signs of improvement in Q3 with a gross margin of 62.1% [1]. - The company is expanding into new fields, particularly in the low-altitude economy, which is projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. The company is positioned to benefit as a core supplier of high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve net profits of 325 million yuan, 392 million yuan, and 482 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.10 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 39, 33, and 26 times for these years [2][8]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 750 million yuan in 2024 to 1.107 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 34.3%, 24.81%, and 18.19% respectively [8][11]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61.6% in 2024, with slight fluctuations in subsequent years [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Huadong Medicine [1][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.478 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.562 billion yuan, up 17.05% year-on-year [2] - The pharmaceutical industrial segment showed robust growth, with revenue reaching 9.941 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 10.53% increase year-on-year [3] - The company is actively expanding its product pipeline, with over 70 innovative products in development, focusing on endocrine, autoimmune, and oncology fields [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.342 billion yuan, 3.874 billion yuan, and 4.414 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 17.71%, 15.94%, and 13.93% [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 2.562 billion yuan, with a quarterly net profit of 866 million yuan, reflecting a 14.71% increase year-on-year [2] - The pharmaceutical industrial segment's revenue for the third quarter was 3.243 billion yuan, a 10.32% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 755 million yuan, up 20.44% [3] - The company’s R&D investment in the pharmaceutical industrial segment was 1.607 billion yuan, a 0.60% increase year-on-year, with direct R&D expenses accounting for 11.69% of the segment's revenue [4] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 43.665 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.49% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, recommending specific companies for investment [3]. Core Insights - In October, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.264 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, while wholesale sales were 1.336 million units, up 25% year-on-year [10][11]. - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market saw retail sales of 609,000 units, a 45% increase year-on-year, with wholesale sales reaching 679,000 units, up 51% year-on-year [10][11]. - The implementation of local vehicle replacement subsidy policies has significantly boosted automotive consumption, with over 1.57 million applications for scrapping subsidies by October 24 [10][11]. - The report forecasts that the narrow passenger vehicle retail market in October will be around 2.2 million units, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year increase [10][11]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach approximately 52.3% in October, driven by new product launches and technological advancements [11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Update - The automotive sector's performance is highlighted, with a weekly increase of 3.61%, ranking 13th among 30 sectors [12][19]. - The best-performing sub-sectors include sales and services, motorcycles and others, and components, with respective weekly increases of 11.08%, 7.72%, and 4.55% [12][19]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for complete vehicles include GAC Group, BYD, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motors [12]. - For intelligent components, recommended companies include Huayu Automotive, Bertel, Desay SV, and others [12]. Industry News - XPeng Motors has officially entered the UAE market, marking a significant milestone in its international expansion [29]. - Pony.ai has established a European R&D center in Luxembourg to promote autonomous vehicle technology [29]. - BYD and OPPO have formed a strategic partnership to explore integration between mobile phones and vehicles [34]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing measures to expand automotive consumption and promote electric vehicle adoption [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of re-inflation is rising, leading to an increase in gold prices. This is influenced by the upcoming US elections and geopolitical tensions, which are driving both domestic and international gold prices higher [5][43]. - The report highlights the impact of the recent geopolitical conflicts and the BRICS summit in Russia, which is accelerating the trend of de-dollarization and supporting long-term gold price increases [5]. - Domestic supply constraints in alumina production due to slow recovery in bauxite mines and environmental regulations are expected to push alumina prices higher, which will subsequently support aluminum prices [5]. Market Overview - As of October 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.17% to 3,299.7 points, while the SW Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index increased by 2.37% to 4,654.05 points. Year-to-date, the SW Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index has risen by 11.22% [3][14]. - Among the five sub-sectors of the non-ferrous metals industry, the changes in performance were as follows: Industrial Metals (+0.35%), Precious Metals (-2.26%), Minor Metals (+4.92%), Energy Metals (+8.90%), and New Metal Materials (+7.60%) [3][14]. Price Trends - Key metal prices as of the report include: - Copper: 76,390 CNY/ton (-0.30%) - Aluminum: 20,760 CNY/ton (+0.78%) - Zinc: 25,030 CNY/ton (+0.24%) - Lead: 16,770 CNY/ton (+0.75%) - Nickel: 125,870 CNY/ton (-2.32%) - Tin: 254,290 CNY/ton (-0.85%) [4][21]. - Gold and silver prices also saw increases, with domestic gold at 624.72 CNY/gram (+1.04%) and silver at 8,140 CNY/kilogram (+3.29%) [4][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading A-share gold stocks such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Yintai Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold due to the supportive environment for gold prices [5]. - For the aluminum sector, it recommends attention to companies like China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum, as the rising alumina prices are expected to enhance their performance [5].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry maintains a "Recommended" rating [4] Core Insights - Q3 revenue for sports apparel has faced pressure, but inventory levels remain healthy. The overall retail performance in Q3 was weaker compared to Q2 due to factors such as consumer fatigue, high temperatures in northern coastal areas, and frequent rainy weather affecting foot traffic and outdoor activities. Looking ahead to Q4 2024, companies are cautiously optimistic about consumer spending, planning to drive sales through new seasonal products and actively preparing for online sales events like Double 11 while managing offline inventory and discounts effectively [1][10] - Anta Sports' main brand saw single-digit revenue growth in Q3, while the FILA brand experienced a decline in consumer confidence, resulting in negative revenue growth. Descente and KOLON maintained a growth rate of 45%-50%, indicating strong market penetration in the outdoor segment. Li Ning's revenue declined in Q3, but inventory levels remain healthy. Xtep International's main brand showed single-digit growth, with online channels performing better than offline. 361 Degrees reported a 10% year-on-year growth, with a slight decline in growth rate [1][10] Summary by Sections 1. Sports Apparel Q3 Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue for sports apparel companies showed overall pressure, with a weaker retail performance compared to Q2. Factors affecting performance included consumer fatigue and adverse weather conditions [1][10] - Companies are optimistic about Q4, focusing on new product launches and online sales strategies [1][10] 2. Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector saw a 4.38% increase in stock prices during the week, outperforming major indices [2] - Cotton prices have risen, with the China Cotton Price Index at 15,509 RMB/ton, up 79 RMB/ton from the previous week [2][23] 3. Upstream Textile Exports - In September 2024, textile yarn, fabric, and related products exported amounted to 11.246 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. Apparel and accessories exports totaled 13.532 billion USD, down 5.1% year-on-year [15] 4. Raw Material Prices - Cotton prices have increased, with the China Cotton Price Index at 15,509 RMB/ton, reflecting a monthly increase of 301 RMB/ton. The Cotlook A Index is at 84.25 cents/pound, also showing a weekly increase [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a revenue of 4.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 213 million yuan, up 8.12% year-on-year [1]. - The company experienced an increase in profitability, with a gross margin of 14.96%, up 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 4.97%, up 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - New signed orders totaled 5.448 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a notable increase in overseas orders, which rose by 82.53% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.05%, and a net profit of 213 million yuan, reflecting an 8.12% increase [1]. - The operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 63 million yuan, which is a decrease of 149 million yuan year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in cash collection due to market conditions [1]. - Accounts receivable increased to 875 million yuan, up 277 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to project settlements [1]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 14.96%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 4.97%, up 0.28 percentage points [1]. - The expense ratio was 8.76%, up 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 0.52%, down 0.01 percentage points [1]. - The financial expense ratio was -1.08%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial management [1]. Order Growth - The company signed new orders totaling 5.448 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 3.47% year-on-year, with significant growth in the engineering contracting business, which saw an increase of 11.99% [2]. - The medical sector experienced a remarkable growth in new orders, increasing by 224.87% year-on-year, while the environmental protection sector saw a decline of 60.68% [2]. - Domestic new orders amounted to 4.233 billion yuan, down 14.98%, while overseas new orders reached 1.216 billion yuan, up 82.53% [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 336 million yuan, 357 million yuan, and 394 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 8.41%, 6.13%, and 10.40% [2].