[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|--------------------------|-------| | 海外市场点评 | | | | | | | 拜登退选，特朗普交易提速 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件解读：拜登退选是"情理之中，意料之外"，目前民主党内部对候选人意见并 不统一。我们认为拜登此次退选主要是民主党内部压力所致，特朗普枪击事件发生 之后的这一周，民主党对拜登退选的呼声渐增，截止退选当天已有超过 30 名民主 党议员公开呼吁拜登退出竞选。退选当天，拜登在社交媒体上发表声明称，他原本 打算寻求连任，但为了民主党和国家的最佳利益，他决定退出竞选，并专注于履行 总统剩余任期内的职责。结合拜登 81 岁的高龄，以及近日新冠检测阳性引发更多 对其健康的担忧，此次的退选实属"情理之中"。 后续推演：民主党或选"背锅侠"，特朗普赢面扩大。由于拜登在党代会之前退选， 民主党需要重新开始提名和竞选，最终获多数投票 ...

Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70%, indicating a clear intention to reduce interest rates[1] - The LPR for both 1-year and over 5-year terms has been reduced by 10 basis points, aligning with the reverse repo rate cut[1][19] Market Implications - The reduction in the reverse repo rate is expected to lead to a decrease in the funding rate DR007, likely falling to 1.70%, down from 1.80%[7] - The bond market is anticipated to benefit from this rate cut, although long-term bond yields may face upward pressure if credit expansion occurs[7][30] Economic Context - The adjustment in monetary policy is a response to macroeconomic pressures, including weak credit demand and low prices, aiming to stabilize economic growth[6][4] - The PBOC's decision reflects a shift in focus from quantity to price in its market operations, emphasizing the importance of interest rate adjustments[3][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to see increased borrowing operations and adjustments in the scale and pace of bond issuance, which could influence interest rates in the medium to long term[8][30] - The RMB exchange rate may experience depreciation pressure due to the PBOC's rate cut, but significant devaluation is not anticipated, with expectations that it will remain below 7.34[21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Q3 marks the peak season for overseas retail, with Amazon's Prime Day sales increasing by 11% year-on-year [1][15] - The report emphasizes the structural differentiation within the retail sector, with a focus on high-growth opportunities in cross-border e-commerce and cosmetics [5][10] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The overseas retail sector is entering a peak season, with a focus on high-growth cross-border e-commerce [10] - Companies like Saiwei Times, Zhiou Technology, and Anker Innovation are highlighted as key players in the cross-border e-commerce space [10] Weekly Topic: Amazon Prime Day Performance and Tariff Impacts - Amazon's Prime Day, held on July 16-17, 2024, is projected to generate $14.2 billion in sales, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year [15][20] - The event saw significant sales growth in categories such as back-to-school products (+216%) and children's clothing (+165%) [21] - Concerns regarding potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. have emerged, prompting some sellers to consider relocating their supply chains to Southeast Asia [22][24] Company Announcements and News Review - Notable company announcements include Pop Mart's positive earnings forecast, expecting a revenue increase of no less than 55% for H1 2024 [4] - The report notes that the retail sector is experiencing a recovery, with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to June 2024 [4] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies in the cosmetics sector, such as Juzhibio and Perleya, are projected to see significant profit growth, with Juzhibio's net profit estimates for 2024-2026 revised upwards to 1.894 billion, 2.422 billion, and 3.010 billion respectively [12][13] - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong overseas expansion plans, such as Miniso, which is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales and successful overseas store openings [5][10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2024 年 07 月 22 日 商贸零售 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 商贸零售 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 数据来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《乖宝宠物(301498.SZ):发布 3 年激励计划,看好国货龙头份额持续 提升》,2024.7.9 2.《结构性分化,布局中报寻找α— —美妆&零售板块 Q2 总结及 Q3 策 略》,2024.7.4 3.《——美妆&零售板块周报 0616- 周大福业绩拆解:同店恢复与展店提 效 , 关 注 单 店 效 能 持 续 爬 升 》, 2024.6.16 4.《——美妆&零售板块周报 0610: 如何解读近期海运费涨价,跨境卖家 应对几何?》,2024.0610 5.《——美妆&零售板块周报 0602: 政策加码海外仓发展,跨境电商必争 之 地 , 持 续 关 注 出 海 链 公 司 》 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 2024 年 07 月 22 日 轻工制造 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号:S0120524030001 邮箱:bixl3@tebon.com.cn 宋姝旺 资格编号:S0120524060004 邮箱:songsw@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱:limf3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 轻工制造 沪深300 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《恒林股份:代工修复可期,自 主品牌跨境电商迎来高速发展》, 2024.7.11 2.《周观点:关注估值底部优质消 费龙头,出口有望受益于汇率变 化》,2024.7.7 3.《雅迪控股(01585.HK):政策 +市场驱动行业加速集中,全球龙头 持续成长》,2024.7.4 4.《周观点: Q2 制造端整体更优, 期待消费端改善》,2024.6.30 5.《周观点:FDA 首次授权非烟草 口味电子烟 PMTA,宠物消费 618 成绩亮眼》,2024. ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 07 月 22 日 食品饮料 优于大市 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号:S0120522120002 邮箱:xiongpeng@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 食品饮料 沪深300 -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240708- 20240712-中期业绩预告集中披 露,建议关注超预期个股》, 2024.7.14 2.《今世缘(603369.SH):上市 十周年,勇攀新高峰》,2024.7.13 3.《金种子酒(600199.SH): 24Q2 小幅亏损,业绩不及预 期》,2024.7.13 4.《顺鑫农业(000860.SZ): 24Q2 预计中值亏损,白酒业务基 本保持稳定》,2024.7.12 5.《酒鬼酒(000799.SZ):营收 降幅收窄,营销改革持续推进》, 2024.7.11 板块情绪回暖,建议关 注中报超预期个股 食品饮料行业周报 20240715-20 ...

图 26: 100 大中城市成交土地占地面积:当周值,万平方米…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………26 图 28: 30 大中城市商品房成交面积:当周值, 万平方米 . | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 表 1：共和党的 20 条承诺… | | | 表 2: 央企总部迁驻梳理 | | | 表 3: 核心高频数据概览 | | | 表 4: 高频数据映射行业表现……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

汽车 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号:S0120523100001 邮箱:dengjq@tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号:S0120523100002 邮箱:zhaoyy5@tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号:S0120523120002 邮箱:zhaoqz@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 汽车 沪深300 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《萝卜快跑订单爆发式增长, Robotaxi 发展提速》,2024.7.16 2.《6 月乘用车销量环比提升,以旧 换新政策效果逐步显现》,2024.7.8 3.《特斯拉 Q2 交付量超预期,FSD 入华持续推进》,2024.7.7 4.《长安汽车(000625.SZ):6 月深 蓝 G318 正式上市,阿维塔将首批搭 载华为乾崑 ADS 3.0》,2024.7.4 5.《雅迪控股(01585.HK):政策+ 市场驱动行业加速集中,全球龙头持 续成长》,2024.7.4 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 202 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 |行业周报 传媒互联网海外 2024 年 07 月 21 日 传媒 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 马笑 资格编号:S0120522100002 邮箱:maxiao@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王梅卿 邮箱:wangmq@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 传媒 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 数据来源:聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《传媒互联网行业 6 月报:AI 视频 有望迎来爆发;电影暑期档热度逐步 提升》,2024.7.17 2.《Robotaxi 行业点评:武汉市订单 量爆发,百度萝卜快跑迈入规模商用 阶段》,2024.7.17 3.《传媒互联网行业周报:关注百度 萝卜快跑产业链投资机会,快手将开 源文生图大模型可图》,2024.7.14 4.《传媒互联网行业周报:WAIC2024 圆满落幕,青木股份更名为青木科 技》,2024.7.7 5.《6 月游戏行业点评:腾讯 DNF 和 哔哩三谋等表现突出,跟踪暑期档把 握游戏低估值机会》,2024.7.4 传媒互联网 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating it is a good opportunity for investment [1]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. The report highlights that coal prices are likely to experience a rebound due to high summer temperatures and increased electricity consumption [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies and infrastructure investments, which are expected to support coal demand in the long term [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal decreased to 846 RMB/ton (-0.70%), while the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port remained stable at 2110 RMB/ton [3][10]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The railway input to Qinhuangdao Port increased by 20.49% to 394,000 tons, while port throughput decreased by 10.06% to 474,000 tons [30][36]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory at Qinhuangdao decreased by 10.93% to 5.05 million tons, while key coal power plants' inventory decreased by 1.04% [40][42]. 2. Market Review - The coal sector underperformed the market, with the coal index declining by 0.2% compared to a 0.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [51][55]. - The report notes that the coal sector is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in demand and supply constraints, leading to a potential price increase in the coming months [3][51]. 3. Recent Events - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at enhancing energy security and promoting green energy transitions, which may impact coal supply and demand dynamics [55][59]. - It also highlights the increase in coal exports and imports, indicating a robust international market for coal [55][56].