[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2024 年 07 月 21 日 有色金属 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 张崇欣 资格编号:S0120522100003 邮箱:zhangcx@tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号:S0120523070003 邮箱:gaojq@tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号:S0120524050001 邮箱:kangyh@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谷瑜 邮箱:guyu5@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 有色金属 沪深300 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《有色金属周报:中报行情启动, 金银铜铝表现俱佳》,2024.7.14 2.《铜行业跟踪:24Q2 铜价创新高, Q3TC 骤降,供需持续紧张》, 2024.7.11 3.《明泰铝业(601677.SH):发布 6 月经营快报,24H1 预告业绩大 增》,2024. ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 建筑材料 2024 年 07 月 21 日 建筑材料 中性(维持) 证券分析师 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 王逸枫 资格编号:S0120524010004 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 建筑材料 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《建材行业基金持仓点评:建材 板块基金持仓环比再下降,持仓比 例再探新低》,2024.7.19 2.《6 月行业数据点评:地产销售环 比改善明显,高能级城市市场情绪 修复》,2024.7.15 3.《周观点:6 月居民长贷依旧疲 软 , 水 泥 淡 季 逆 势 提 价 》, 2024.7.14 4.《 中 国 巨 石 (600176.SH): 24Q2 行业全面复价,公司业绩环比 明显改善》,2024.7.8 5.《周观点:沿江熟料第三轮提涨 50 元每吨,百强房企 6 月销售环比 改善》,2024.7 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|----------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 国家 | 周一 | 周二 | 周三 | 周四 | 周五 | | 美国 | | 6 月成屋销售总数； 7 月里奇蒙德联储制 造业指数 | | 第二季度实际 GDP 、 实际个人消费支出、 核心 PCE ； 6 月耐用品订单月率 | 6 月核心 PCE ； 7 月密歇根大学消费 者信心指数； 7 月一年期通胀率预 期终值 | | 欧洲 | | | 欧元区、法国、德国 7 月制造业 PMI | | ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 07 月 21 日 公用事业 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号:S0120522120001 邮箱:guoxue@tebon.com.cn 卢璇 资格编号:S0120524050004 邮箱:luxuan@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 刘正 邮箱:liuzheng3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 公用事业 沪深300 -24% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 国家能源局发布 6 月份全社会用电量 等数据,建议关注煤炭低碳化改造 环保与公用事业周报 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 行情回顾:本周各板块涨跌不一,申万(2021)公用事业行业指数上涨 0.1%,环保 行业指数下跌 1.6%。公用事业板块中新能源发电涨幅较大,涨幅为 2.5%,环保 板块中园林跌幅较大,下跌 6.5%。 行业动态 环保: (1)江苏省人民政府发布关于加快构建废弃物循环利用体系的实施意见。意见 明确,2027 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 机械设备 2024 年 07 月 21 日 机械设备 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 何思源 资格编号:S0120522100004 邮箱:hesy@tebon.com.cn 陈瑞基 资格编号:S0120524060002 邮箱:chenrj3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 机械设备 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《机械行业周报:全球首款智能人 形采摘机器人问世》,2024.7.15 2.《机械行业周报:挖机内销数据持 续高增,关注工程机械板块行业修复 机会》,2024.7.9 3.《东睦股份(600114.SH)半年报 预告点评:业绩高速增长,SMC、 P&S 业务营收二季度创季度历史新 高》,2024.7.8 4.《工程机械:国内需求向好,电动 装载机渗透率提升》,2024.7.8 5.《机械行业周报:即将迎来 WAIC 大会,关注人形机器人相关投资机 会》,2024.7.1 机械行业周报:设备更新有望提速, 建议关注顺周期 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 07 月 21 日 公用事业 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号:S0120522120001 邮箱:guoxue@tebon.com.cn 卢璇 资格编号:S0120524050004 邮箱:luxuan@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 刘正 邮箱:liuzheng3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 公用事业 沪深300 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤电低碳化改造方案公布,关注 绿氢及 CCUS》,2024.7.19 2.《环保与公用事业周报-加快推动 建设全国统一电力市场,完善市场规 则与机制》,2024.7.14 3.《ESG 周报:全国碳市场活跃度, 上 半 年 同 期 交 易 量 显 著 上 升 ; Microsoft 与 Oxy 的 1PointFive 签署有史以来最大的 DAC 碳信用 购买协议》,2024.7.13 4.《环保与公用事业周报-2023-2024 配额分配方案出炉,履约 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 电气设备 2024 年 7 月 21 日 电气设备 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号:S0120522070001 邮箱:penggc@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 电力设备 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《光伏产业链发展良好,各环节降 价有望刺激 23 年需求》,2022.12.16 2.《风电行业策略年度报告-不惧一 番寒彻骨,已闻梅花扑鼻香》, 2022.12.16 3.《发挥新能源战略性新型产业优 势,推动扩大内需战略发展》, 2022.12.15 4.《内蒙古能源局印发实施细则推动 源网荷储、风光制氢等项目发展》, 2022.12.15 5.《11 月欧洲新能源车销量点评:环 比高增,政策收紧》,2022.12.15 硅料价格持稳,国内前六月光 伏装机维持增长 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 本周硅料价格持稳,月度排产有望下调。据中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会,本周 多晶硅 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 建筑材料 2024 年 07 月 19 日 建筑材料 中性(维持) 证券分析师 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 王逸枫 资格编号:S0120524010004 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 建筑材料 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《6 月行业数据点评:地产销售环 比改善明显,高能级城市市场情绪修 复》,2024.7.15 2.《周观点:6 月居民长贷依旧疲软, 水泥淡季逆势提价》,2024.7.14 3.《中国巨石(600176.SH):24Q2 行业全面复价,公司业绩环比明显改 善》,2024.7.8 4.《周观点:沿江熟料第三轮提涨 50 元每吨,百强房企 6 月销售环比改 善》,2024.7.7 5.《周观点:北京地产政策再优化, 中报窗口期优选绩优股》,2024.6.30 建材行业基金持仓点 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the family luxury market, with a product matrix that includes both extended-range and pure electric vehicles, catering to different segments of family car needs [4] - The company has demonstrated strong product definition capabilities through its L-series models, with the L6 model expected to see significant sales growth [5] - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1396.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 2423.0 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to increase from 73.5 billion yuan to 182.9 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 20.36x, 12.34x, and 8.18x respectively, based on the closing price on July 19, 2024 [5] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant fluctuations over the past months, with a 1-month absolute increase of 11.17%, but a 2-month decrease of 17.52% and a 3-month decrease of 31.10% [2] - Relative performance shows a 1-month increase of 11.94%, but a 2-month decrease of 8.44% and a 3-month decrease of 39.60% [2] Product Strategy - The company has a clear focus on the family luxury market, with a product lineup that includes the L9, L8, L7, and L6 models, each targeting different segments of the family car market [4] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has shown strong sales performance, with over 41,000 orders in the first sales period and deliveries exceeding 20,000 units in June 2024 [5] - The company is also developing its pure electric vehicle lineup, with plans to expand its charging network to over 2,000 supercharging stations and 10,000 charging piles by the end of 2024 [5] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1396.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 2423.0 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit attributable to the parent company projected to increase from 73.5 billion yuan to 182.9 billion yuan over the same period [5] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 20.08% in 2024, 20.48% in 2025, and 20.88% in 2026 [6] Organizational Structure - The company employs an IPD (Integrated Product Development) process and a matrix organizational structure to ensure efficient collaboration across departments and support long-term growth [4] - The company has upgraded its performance evaluation system from OKR (Objectives and Key Results) to PBC (Personal Business Commitment), focusing on aligning individual goals with business objectives [39] Competitive Positioning - The company's L-series models, particularly the L9, L8, and L7, have maintained leading positions in their respective market segments, with the L9 being the best-selling large SUV in 2023 [16] - The company's focus on family-oriented features, such as intelligent driving, intelligent space, and efficient range, has strengthened its brand loyalty and market position [4] Industry Trends - The Chinese MPV market has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales increasing by 15.9% in 2023, and the average price of MPVs rising from 157,000 yuan in 2018 to 272,000 yuan in 2024 [26] - The "new family car market" in China is expected to enter a rapid development phase from 2024 to 2026, with married family users remaining the main consumer group, accounting for over 65% of the market [34]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company focuses on the family luxury market, with a product matrix gradually improving through both extended-range and high-voltage pure electric vehicle offerings [4] - The company has demonstrated strong product definition capabilities through its L-series models, with the L6 model expected to see significant sales growth [5] - The company's revenue is projected to reach 1396.1 billion, 1896.7 billion, and 2423.0 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.35 billion, 12.13 billion, and 18.29 billion [5] - The company's PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 20.36x, 12.34x, and 8.18x, respectively [5] Market Performance - The stock has shown significant volatility with a 1-month absolute gain of 11.17%, a 2-month loss of 17.52%, and a 3-month loss of 31.10% [2] - Relative gains over the same periods were 11.94%, -8.44%, and -39.60%, respectively [2] Product Strategy - The company has a clear focus on family users, with products like the L9, L8, L7, and L6 catering to different segments of the family market [4] - The L6 model, launched in April 2024, has shown strong sales performance, with over 41,000 orders in the first sales period and 20,000 deliveries in June 2024 [5] - The company is adjusting its pure electric vehicle strategy, with plans to improve the charging network and focus on user value and operational efficiency [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a full-year GAAP net profit, with a delivery volume of 376,000 vehicles, making it the first Chinese new energy vehicle company to exceed 300,000 annual deliveries [4] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1238.51 billion, a 173.48% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 22.20%, up 2.79 percentage points from the previous year [6] - The company's SG&A and R&D expense ratios were 7.89% and 8.55%, respectively, showing significant optimization compared to peers [6] Organizational Structure - The company employs an IPD (Integrated Product Development) process and a matrix organizational structure to ensure efficient collaboration across departments [4] - The company has upgraded its performance evaluation system from OKR to PBC (Personal Business Commitment), focusing on aligning individual goals with business objectives [40] Industry Context - The Chinese MPV market saw a recovery in 2023, with retail sales reaching 1.093 million units, a 15.9% year-over-year increase [27] - The average price of MPVs has risen from 157,000 yuan in January 2018 to 272,000 yuan in May 2024, indicating a shift towards higher-end models [27] - The company is well-positioned in the family vehicle market, with a 91.9% penetration rate among family users in 2023 [34]