[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 铜 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------|-------| | | 2024 年 07 月 11 | 日 | | | | | | 铜行业跟踪： 铜 | 铜价创新 | 24Q2 | | | | | | 高， Q3TC 优于大市（维持） | 骤降，供需持续紧张 | | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 张崇欣 资格编号：S0120522100003 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谷瑜 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 37% 49% 61% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 铜 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《紫金矿业（601899.SH）：24H1 业绩预告同比大增，量价齐升》， 2024.7.9 2.《金诚信（603979.S ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 晶晨股份(688099.SH) 2024 年 07 月 11 日 买入(维持) 所属行业:电子/半导体 当前价格(元):66.77 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号:S0120524010003 邮箱:chenyx5@tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号:S0120522060001 投资要点 市场表现 晶晨股份 沪深300 -57% -46% -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) 22.07 13.21 48.41 相对涨幅(%) 25.03 18.61 49.45 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《晶晨股份(688099.SH):业绩高速 增长,逆周期加大研发,扩张产品矩 阵》,2024.4.16 2.《晶晨股份(688099.SH):Q2 业绩 环比大幅提升,多产品线助力公司重 回上行通道》,2023.8.16 Q2 收入创季度新高,前期投入收获期或至 晶晨股份 2024H1 业绩预告点 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The company continues to solidify its leading position in traditional e-commerce agency services and e-commerce live streaming services, driving strong performance growth [4] - AI empowerment and brand management are expected to bring vast growth opportunities [4] - The company has achieved significant growth in its brand incubation business, with a 30%+ increase in business scale for the CUMLAUDE brand [18] - The company has officially changed its name to "Qingmu Technology" and is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency across various operational aspects, including customer service, design, store operations, and live streaming [24] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 1,173 million yuan in 2024E to 2,078 million yuan in 2026E, with a YOY growth rate of 21.3%, 32.4%, and 33.8% respectively [25] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 153 million yuan in 2024E to 318 million yuan in 2026E, with a YOY growth rate of 193.7%, 52.4%, and 36.3% respectively [25] - Gross margin is projected to rise from 46.0% in 2024E to 47.4% in 2026E [20] - ROE is expected to improve from 9.9% in 2024E to 15.1% in 2026E [20] Business Highlights - In the traditional e-commerce agency services sector, the company has maintained its strong position in the apparel industry, particularly in the sports and outdoor apparel category, achieving rapid growth [4] - The company has won multiple awards from Alimama, including the "Omni-Channel Business Ecosystem Partner Award" and "Live Streaming Breakthrough Award" [4] - In the e-commerce live streaming sector, the company has expanded its high-quality customer base and improved service levels, leading to significant growth in this segment [4] - During the 618 shopping festival, the company ranked 3rd in the sports and outdoor category for store live streaming, with a 125% YoY increase in GMV and a 106% YoY increase in penetration rate [4] AI and Technology Integration - The company has upgraded its data platform with AI technology, developing "Qingmu Qingling" to enhance efficiency in customer service, design, store operations, and live streaming [24] - AI applications include generating product highlights, automatic customer service responses, intelligent image and video editing, and virtual digital live streaming [24] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 16.24-37.78 yuan [5] - The current stock price is 29.35 yuan [16] Industry and Sector - The company operates in the e-commerce sector, specifically within the internet retail and brand management space [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Views - The company, now renamed "Qingmu Technology," is leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with significant growth expected in its business segments [14]. - The brand incubation business is showing growth, with a notable increase in sales for the joint brand CUMLAUDE, achieving over 30% growth in internal business scale [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading internet e-commerce service provider, with a strong foothold in the apparel sector and a promising second growth curve through brand incubation and cross-border expansion [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, projecting a range of 60 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.27% to 69.48% [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 1.173 billion, 1.553 billion, and 2.078 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.3%, 32.4%, and 33.8% [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 153 million, 233 million, and 318 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 193.7%, 52.4%, and 36.3% [5]. Market Performance - The company has shown a relative performance improvement compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 7.23% over one month and 18.40% over three months [1]. - The stock price is currently at 29.35 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 2.73 billion yuan [1][17]. Business Segments - The traditional e-commerce operation service continues to strengthen its market position, particularly in the outdoor apparel sector, with significant awards received for its service capabilities [15]. - The e-commerce live streaming service has also seen substantial growth, with a 125% increase in GMV during the 618 shopping festival, solidifying its industry ranking [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of approximately 1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 35.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 110 million and 130 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 69.2% to 73.9% [6][7]. - Revenue decline is narrowing, with a 12.3% year-on-year decrease expected in Q2 2024, attributed to improved market conditions and customer payment cycles. However, profit margins are under pressure due to a higher proportion of lower-priced products and increased sales expenses [6][7]. - The company is focusing on long-term development through marketing reforms, emphasizing deepening market penetration in Hunan province and establishing model markets in other regions [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, down 5.3% year-on-year, with net profits expected to be 407 million yuan, a decrease of 25.8% [8][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 73.9% in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [8][9]. - Key financial metrics for 2024 include an EPS of 1.25 yuan and a net asset return rate of 9.2% [8][9].

展望下半年预计 PPI 中枢可能较前期有所抬升，我们提示重点关注以下两个方 面： 宏观点评 风险提示：国际原油价格波动；猪肉等食品价格波动；宏观政策力度及节奏超预 期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------|-------|--------|-------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 2024 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | | 四季度 | PPI 增速有望转正？ | | | | | —— | 2024 | 年 6 月通胀数据点评 | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | 宏观点评 高频数据走势反映北旱南涝对农作物价格影响有限。6 月前北方干旱对玉米影响 较大，豫中补灌区（如平顶山等）、豫南雨养区（如南阳、驻马店、信阳）受影 响较大1，价格方面，河南郑州玉米饲料原料价格自 5 月的 2296 元/吨上涨至 6 月 的 2412元/吨，6月环比+5.1%（前值为-0.4%），其余地区玉米价格暂未受天气影 响产生剧 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ming Tai Aluminum (601677.SH) [1] Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for H1 2024, projecting a net profit of 1 to 1.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 37% [1] - The growth in profit is attributed to steady increases in production and sales, with a projected sales growth of approximately 19% for H1 2024 [1] - The company is benefiting from the expanding application of recycled aluminum, which enhances profitability per ton [1] - The company's overseas expansion strategy is beginning to show results [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates a net profit of 638 to 738 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 76% to 104% compared to Q1 2024 [1] - The company has set a long-term production and sales target of 2 million tons, with recycled aluminum capacity expected to reach 1.4 million tons [2] - The production of aluminum plates and foils has increased from 310,000 tons in 2012 to 1.25 million tons in 2023, indicating rapid growth [2] Market Dynamics - The average spot aluminum price in Q2 2024 reached 20,533 yuan per ton, a 7.8% increase from Q1 2024 [27] - The report highlights that the price gap between domestic and international aluminum prices is narrowing, which could enhance the company's export profits [27] - The company’s sales model, which is based on the London aluminum price plus processing fees, will benefit if international prices remain higher than domestic prices [27] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 35.4 billion, 40 billion, and 40.2 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.17 billion, 2.47 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan [19] - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.75, 1.98, and 2.02 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.2x, 6.3x, and 6.2x [19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xingrui Technology (002937.SZ) with a positive outlook on its growth potential in the automotive electronics sector [19]. Core Insights - Xingrui Technology has shown significant revenue growth, particularly in automotive electronics, which has become a major revenue driver, while the share of mold products and consumer electronics in total revenue has gradually decreased [2][6]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, including international and domestic leading clients, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, which is expected to continue driving revenue growth [6][9]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin, attributed to the increasing revenue from high-margin automotive electronics and smart terminal businesses [9][12]. Financial Overview - The company's total operating revenue from 2019 to Q1 2024 is projected to grow from 1.023 billion to 2.006 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 41.16% in 2022 [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 138 million yuan in 2019 to 267 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [6]. - The gross margin from 2019 to 2023 has improved from 28.57% to 26.91%, with a notable recovery post-2021 due to increased sales in high-margin products [9][12]. Product Revenue Composition - Automotive electronics have become the primary revenue source, with a significant increase in its revenue share over the past three years, while the contributions from mold products and consumer electronics have decreased [2][6]. - The report indicates that the automotive electronics segment is expected to continue contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth, despite a slight decline in smart terminal revenue in 2023 [6]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the growing demand for embedded plastic components in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of the three-electric system (battery, motor, and electronic control) of new energy vehicles [37][48]. - The market for automotive electronic embedded plastic components is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27.6% from 2021 to 2025, indicating a robust growth outlook for the sector [64][70]. Competitive Advantages - Xingrui Technology's management team possesses extensive experience in precision manufacturing, which enhances its ability to capture market opportunities and drive growth [26]. - The company has established a strong R&D capability, enabling it to develop customized solutions in collaboration with key clients, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market [80].

日本消费税课税范围广泛，税目设置多。日本消费税课税税目数量多，国税 涉及 15 种，地方税涉及 10 种，征税范围较大。此外，日本消费税涉及多个征税 环节，针对境内产品销售及服务提供，几乎涵盖所有行业，从制造到批发和零售。 消费税征收涉及各个消费领域，具有普遍性和连续性的特征。日本为减轻纳税人 在税务程序及税额上的负担等，制定了相应的免税条例：年度的应征税销售额在 1,000 万日元以下的经营者（上一会计年度前 6 个月的销售额超过 1,000 万日元 的以及已选为征税经营者的除外），在满足一定条件的情况下可免除其在此征税期 间内的纳税义务。 宏观深度报告 图 13：2023 年日本消费税占总税收的比例为 32.5%，过往消费税税率调整对税收收入的拉动作用不明显 2.1.3. 兼具扩税收和调理念作用 2.2. 中国台湾消费税：财税功能减弱，调节功能增强 23 / 49 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 深度报告 2024 年 07 月 09 日 宏观深度报告 证券分析师 | | |------------------------------| | 程强 | | 资格编号:S0120524010005 | | 邮箱:chengqiang@tebon.com.cn | 研究助理 相关研究 消费税不同地区比较与国内展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 核心观点:随着三中全会的临近,新一轮财税体制改革成为市场关注焦点,结合不 同地区比较经验,我们认为应更多从税源而非税收的角度去理解消费税,消费税后 移至地方重点在于给予了地方政府更大的积极性,通过经济增长和产业发展,一方 面改善居民收入和财富,另一方面强化自身的消费供给竞争力,从而推动消费的增 长达到扩大税源的目的,地方消费税也自然提升。 消费税改革重点关注三个方面:1)范围上可考虑服务国家重大战略(绿色低碳、 共同富裕、资源节约等)和消费结构变化(高端消费、服务消费)进行调整。2) 税率调节重在考虑行业特性、引导消费有序发展。3)推进征收环节后移并稳步下 划地方有助于培育税源,考虑稳妥推进和可操 ...