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食品饮料行业周报:关注年报业绩表现,分化下仍有亮点
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing performance differentiation, with notable highlights in certain segments [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring annual and quarterly performance reports as the industry enters a seasonal lull [12] - The white liquor sector is projected to stabilize in production while revenue and profit are expected to grow steadily [12] - The beer sector is undergoing structural upgrades, with a focus on high-end products despite some differentiation among leading companies [5] - The snack food segment is benefiting from channel expansion and strong performance from leading companies [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 0.31% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.10% [12] - In 2023, the national white liquor industry achieved a total production of 6.29 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, while sales revenue increased by 9.7% to 756.3 billion yuan [12] - The beer sector's production in January-February 2024 was 5.666 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [12] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks price data for various segments, including white liquor, beer, and dairy products, indicating price stability and slight fluctuations in certain categories [32][44] - The average price of fresh milk was reported at 3.53 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.56% [44] 3. Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on the 1,000 yuan price range [6][15] - In the beer sector, recommended companies include Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, and China Resources Beer [6][15] - The snack food segment highlights companies like Salted Fish and Jin Zai Foods, which are expected to benefit from channel expansion and product innovation [6][15] 4. Valuation Situation - As of March 29, the overall valuation of the food and beverage sector stood at 25.07x, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 11.66x [23] - The highest valuations were noted in the seasoning and fermentation segment at 36.13x, while dairy products had a lower valuation of 18.13x [23] 5. Fund Flow - Northbound capital showed significant activity in leading companies such as Wuliangye and Guizhou Moutai, with notable increases in holdings [27] - Salted Fish saw the largest increase in holdings among Northbound funds, while Qiaqia Foods experienced a decrease [27][29]
产业经济月报:东升西落与金铜的长期格局
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Economic Recovery - Traditional manufacturing industry chain production recovery is better than high-end manufacturing, with 19 industries showing cumulative year-on-year growth in industrial added value above the five-year average[2] - Cumulative year-on-year profit growth in 11 industries exceeds the five-year average, indicating production recovery is stronger than profit recovery[2] Profit and Production Analysis - In February, industrial enterprises' added value growth was 7%, close to the five-year average of 7.36%, while profit growth was 10.2%, significantly lower than the five-year average of 21.74%[55] - The recovery in production is primarily seen in traditional industries such as black and non-ferrous metals, and consumer manufacturing (food, textiles, and apparel)[2] Employment and Inflation - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims decreasing, and employment numbers expected to increase steadily in March[4] - February's U.S. PCE inflation was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while core PCE inflation also met expectations at 0.3%[75] Market Trends - In March, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 5.57%, indicating market volatility and sector rotation[58] - The advanced manufacturing sector showed a strong performance with a 4.09% increase, while technology sectors lagged behind[63] Investment Recommendations - Focus on short-term rebounds in leading consumer electronics and long-term investments in cyclical sectors such as agriculture, insurance, and new energy vehicles[16] - The report suggests that the high-end manufacturing sector's supply-demand gap may have peaked, with potential profit improvements expected[21]
家用电器行业24W13周观点:年报业绩陆续发布,关注业绩催化
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance and textile sectors, highlighting strong performance and recovery potential in consumer demand [4][28]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows robust performance with leading companies like Midea Group, Haier, and Hisense demonstrating resilience and high dividend payouts. In 2023, Midea Group, Haier, and Hisense had dividend payout ratios of 62%, 55% (including buybacks), and 49% respectively [9][10]. - The textile and apparel sector is witnessing a healthy recovery in sportswear, with major brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning reporting significant revenue growth. Anta's revenue increased by 16.2% and net profit by 34.9% in 2023 [21][22]. Summary by Relevant Sections Home Appliances - The overall performance in domestic and international sales is steady, with Stone Technology and Haier showing significant profit improvements. Stone Technology reported a revenue of 8.654 billion yuan, up 30.55%, and a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, up 73.32% in 2023 [11][13]. - Midea Group achieved a revenue of 373.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with a net profit of 33.72 billion yuan, up 14.1% [14]. - Haier's revenue reached 261.43 billion yuan, growing by 7.3%, with a net profit of 16.597 billion yuan, up 12.8% [13]. Textile and Apparel - The sportswear segment is performing well, with Anta Sports reporting a revenue increase of 16.2% and a net profit increase of 34.9% in 2023 [21]. - Li Ning's revenue was 27.598 billion yuan, up 7.0%, but net profit decreased by 21.6% [22]. - The contract manufacturing leader, Shenzhou International, saw a revenue decline of 10% but maintained stable net profit [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas for investment: 1. Stone Technology in the home appliance sector due to its global market share growth in robotic vacuum cleaners [28]. 2. Midea Group and Haier for their resilient domestic and international positioning [28]. 3. In the textile sector, Shenzhou International and Anta Sports are highlighted for their stable performance and growth potential [28].
同业竞争问题进展顺利,减值因素消除后净利获大幅增长
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit due to the elimination of substantial asset impairment losses from 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 113.53% in net profit for 2023 [4][5] - The company has made progress in resolving industry competition issues, which is expected to enhance its operational efficiency and profitability [5] - The company achieved record production levels for lead, zinc, and germanium products in 2023, indicating strong operational performance [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 21.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, and a gross profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.43 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 113.53% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.47 billion yuan, up 143.37% year-on-year [4][6] - The company’s production capacity includes 420,000 tons/year for lead and zinc metals and 60 tons/year for germanium products, with production volumes for lead and zinc metals increasing by 7.3% and 20.0% respectively in 2023 [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.4 billion yuan, 23.0 billion yuan, and 23.2 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.69 billion yuan, 2.21 billion yuan, and 2.27 billion yuan [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.33 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.45 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.13x, 13.09x, and 12.72x [5][6]
2023年扣非归母净利润同比+8%,新能源及出口进程加速
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Great Wall Motors is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 173.21 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.1% to 7.02 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.0% to 4.83 billion yuan [6][8] - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy and smart vehicles, with significant growth in overseas sales, surpassing 300,000 units for the first time in 2023 [7] - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 9.87 billion yuan, 12.62 billion yuan, and 15.85 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 20, 15, and 12 [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 53.71 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 41.9% and 8.4% respectively. The total vehicle sales for Q4 were 367,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [6] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q4 was approximately 146,000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 thousand yuan [6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2023 was 18.7%, with a projected increase to 19.0% in 2024 [9] Market Position and Strategy - Great Wall Motors is focusing on the new energy off-road market, launching several new models and achieving significant order volumes shortly after their release [7] - The company has expanded its international presence, with products available in over 170 countries and regions, and has established more than 1,000 international sales channels [7] - The company plans to cover the A0 to C segment markets with new high-quality models in 2024, enhancing its product lineup [7]
点评:利润分红下降,未来有望恢复
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's profits and dividends have decreased but are expected to recover in the future [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 37.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.26 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 38.53% [2][3] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will gradually increase due to the release of new production capacity and changes in product prices [4] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a comprehensive coal price of 699.15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.46% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost was 421.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.61% year-on-year [3] - The company plans to distribute dividends of 1.289 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.25%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.79% [4] - The forecast for total revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 38.3 billion, 40 billion, and 40.8 billion respectively, with net profits of 4.5 billion, 4.7 billion, and 4.8 billion respectively [4][5] Production and Sales - The company's coal production and sales slightly declined in 2023, with production and sales volumes of 38.9837 million tons and 52.5053 million tons, down 3.92% and 2.55% year-on-year respectively [3] - The company plans to produce no less than 33 million tons of raw coal in 2024, supported by new mines coming online [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The report maintains that the earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 2.25, 2.36, and 2.44 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.61, 7.26, and 7.02 [4][5] - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 7.9%, increasing to 8.3% in 2025 and 8.5% in 2026 [6]
公用事业行业ESG周报:北交所迎首只ESG股权投资主题基金;联合国环境规划署报告,2022年全球浪费10.5亿吨食物
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [2] Core Insights - The establishment of the first ESG equity investment theme fund on the Beijing Stock Exchange signifies a growing trend towards ESG investment, with a fund size of 300 million RMB aimed at investing in IPO companies and strategic placements [8][10] - The report highlights significant investments in renewable energy projects, with the National Energy Group announcing a total investment of 400 billion RMB across 80 key projects, including 61 renewable energy projects [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing sustainable information disclosure and the establishment of a comprehensive ESG reporting guideline to improve corporate governance and transparency [12][36] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The utility sector has shown a performance decline of 24% compared to the CSI 300 index over the specified period [2] Policy Dynamics - The implementation of the "National Standardization Development Outline" action plan by 18 departments aims to enhance standardization efforts from 2024 to 2025 [12] - The release of the "Action Plan" for carbon footprint management in Shanghai outlines 20 specific tasks to support carbon neutrality goals [12] - The revision of the "Hebei Province Electricity Regulations" reflects a commitment to green energy and the establishment of a new power system [13] ESG Product Tracking - As of March 29, 2024, a total of 3,914 ESG bonds have been issued in China, with a total outstanding amount of 5.82 trillion RMB, and 1,129 ESG bonds issued in the past year totaling 1.3695 trillion RMB [26][27] - The market currently has 521 ESG products with a total net value of 520.43 billion RMB, with environmental protection products making up the largest share at 43.57% [29][30] - The report notes that pure ESG products account for 63.42% of the 462 existing ESG financial products in the banking sector [32] ESG Expert Opinions - Experts emphasize the need for improved sustainable information disclosure and the establishment of international standards to facilitate better comparability among companies [36][37]
建筑材料行业周观点:关注低空经济发展为碳纤维带来新增量
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 建筑材料 2024年03月31日 建筑材料 周观点:关注低空经济发展为碳纤维 带来新增量 中性(维持) 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm :ar y] 闫广 资格编号:S0120521060002  周观点:3 月 27 日四部门发布《通用航空装备创新应用实施方案(2024-2030 邮箱:yanguang@tebon.com.cn 年)》,其中提到2027年实现新型通用航空装备在城市空运、物流配送、应急救援 王逸枫 等领域商业应用,2030 年形成万亿市场规模。碳纤维是 eVTOL 主要机身结构材 资格编号:S0120524010004 料,满足轻量化和高强度要求。当前主流设计方案均采用碳纤维作为机身结构材 邮箱:wangyf6@tebon.com.cn 料,复材使用量上超 90%为碳纤维,而 23 年大小丝束价格多次阶梯式下调,下 游产业验证有望打开,为上游碳纤维带来增量贡献。我们测算,当前订单量有望 研究助理 拉动千吨碳纤需求(本周发布的深度报告《碳纤维新领域,低空经济蓄势腾 飞》),看好低空经济等新兴领域为碳纤维带来的增量需求,建议 ...
手机行业点评:vivo第三代折叠屏手机发布,华为P70上市在即,手机产业链再迎高光时刻
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 2024年03月31日 行业点评 vivo 第三代折叠屏手机发布,华为 P70 上市在即,手机产业链再迎高光时刻 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 资格编号:S0120522060001 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn  vivo发布第三代折叠旗舰手机Fold3系列,端侧AI深度融合大屏强化商务属性。 3月26日,vivo发布新一代折叠旗舰智能手机vivo X Fold3系列(以下简称Fold3 研究助理 系列)。Fold3系列是 vivo 发布的第三代折叠屏手机,共包括 Fold3和Fold3 Pro 张威震 两个版本,Fold3 重量仅 219g,比主流厂商的折叠屏旗舰手机更轻,且接近主流 邮箱:zhangwz5@tebon.com.cn 直板旗舰手机重量(iPhone 15 Pro Max重量221g,Pro重量187g),折叠后厚度 仅10.2mm,单边厚度低至4.65mm。1)硬件方面,Fold3系列均配备8.03英寸 相关研究 主屏和 6.53英寸副屏,采用 AMOLED材质,刷新率为 120Hz。 ...
商社周报0330:港股商社公司23年收入多数实现增长,酒店旅游板块整体表现靠前
Tebon Securities· 2024-03-31 16:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 2024年04月01日 商社周报 0330:港股商社公司 商贸零售 23 年收入多数实现增长,酒店 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 旅游板块整体表现靠前 赵雅楠 资格编号:S0120523070002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 邮箱:zhaoyn@tebon.com.cn 李旭东 本周专题—港股商社公司23年收入多数实现增长,酒店旅游板块整体表现靠前。 资格编号:S0120524020002  邮箱:lixd@tebon.com.cn 收入方面,酒店旅游免税/餐饮板块收入增速整体表现靠前。我们选取已经披露23 易丁依  年业绩的港股商社公司,划分为餐饮、教育人服、酒店旅游免税、医美美护、零售 资格编号:S0120523070004 五个板块,共计 28 家公司。所选公司中,23 年收入下滑的仅有海伦司/卓越教育 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 集团/同道猎聘/四环医药4家,其余皆实现增长。从单个公司来看,收入增速前三 张望 的为科笛-B/携程集团-S/同程旅行,分别为1111%/122%/81%。从板块来看,整体 资 ...