[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 汽车 2024年04月02日 3 月新势力交付环比普遍提升， 汽车 问界表现亮眼 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001  3月新势力交付量环比普遍提升。2024年3月AITO汽车交付量为31727辆，同 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 比+762%，环比+50%，其中问界新M7单月交付新车24598辆，上市累计交付量 赵悦媛 超过12万辆，问界M9单月交付新车6243辆；理想汽车交付量为28984辆，同 资格编号：S0120523100002 比+39%，环比+43%；零跑汽车交付量为14567辆，同比+136%，环比+122%； 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 蔚来交付量为 11866 辆，同比+14%，环比+46%；小鹏汽车交付量为 9026 辆， 赵启政 同比+29%，环比+99%，其中小鹏X9交付3,946台，上市三月累计交付近八千台； 资格编号：S0120523120002 哪吒汽车交付量为 8317 辆，同比-18%，环 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the education industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The recruitment market is experiencing strong demand, with the number of candidates for national civil service exams reaching a record high. The overall recruitment market is characterized by an increase in the number of applicants and training participation rates, indicating a high level of market vitality [2][4] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with leading companies such as Huatu, Zhonggong, and Fenbi dominating the market. These companies leverage their brand, teaching resources, and management capabilities to enhance market share [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Recruitment Market Dynamics - The number of college graduates in China has been steadily increasing, with 2023 expected to see 11.58 million graduates, up from 10.76 million in 2022. This trend is driving a growing interest in public service exams among graduates [13][14] - The national civil service exam has seen a continuous increase in recruitment numbers, with 39,600 positions available in 2024, a 6.6% increase from the previous year. The competition ratio for these positions is approximately 77:1, indicating heightened competition [15][18] - The recruitment training market is projected to reach 38.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2016 to 2021. The market is expected to grow to 50.5 billion yuan by 2026 [18][21] 2. Competitive Landscape - The recruitment training market is characterized by a "three-horse race" among Huatu, Zhonggong, and Fenbi, with respective revenues of 2.67 billion yuan, 2.1 billion yuan, and 1.68 billion yuan in the first half of 2023 [29] - Huatu has been expanding its non-degree vocational education business, leveraging its established brand and resources to enhance its market position. The company has set up over 300 branches nationwide, training more than 50,000 students [33][34] - Zhonggong, a leader in vocational education, has shifted its strategy towards sustainable growth after experiencing significant losses in 2021. The company is now focusing on profitability and has announced a stock incentive plan to boost employee confidence [30][31] - Fenbi, which started as an online training provider, has successfully integrated online and offline training methods, achieving a revenue growth of 15.9% in the first half of 2023 [30][31] 3. Policy Support and Market Growth - The Chinese government has been increasingly supportive of vocational education, with policies aimed at enhancing the quality and accessibility of vocational training. This support is expected to drive further growth in the recruitment training market [28][29]

投资要点 2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 事件：公司发布 2023 年年度报告。2023 年公司实现营收 20.65 亿元，同比 +41.26%，实现归母净利润 2.10 亿元，同比+68.17%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.86 亿元，同比+64.49%。其中，单 Q4 实现营收 5.72 亿元，同比+26.51%，实现归 母净利润 0.76 亿元，同比+122.61%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.77 亿元，同比 +153.92%。 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------| | 劲仔食品（ 买入（维持） | 003000.SZ ）：营收 | | | | | 所属行业：食品饮料 / 休闲食品 高增收官， 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 14.51 | 24 年势能有望延续 | | | | 市场表现 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 劲仔食品 沪深300 相关研究 营收高增收官，大包装+散称双轮驱动。分产品看，23 ...

baao[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 传媒 2024年04月02日 传媒互联网行业 3 月报：Kimi 传媒 引领长文本趋势，国内外多模态 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 应用百花齐放 马笑 资格编号：S0120522100002 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 邮箱：maxiao＠tebon.com.cn  行情概述：2024年3月，传媒行业指数（SW）涨幅为 1.50%，沪深300涨幅为 研究助理 0.61%，创业板指涨幅为 0.62%，上证综指涨幅为 0.86%。各传媒子板块中，媒 体上涨 2.62%，广告营销上涨 1.47%，文化娱乐上涨 1.57%，互联网媒体下跌 王梅卿 0.98%。2024年3月，港股互联网板块涨幅为5.90%，恒生科技涨幅为1.35%， 邮箱：wangmq＠tebon.com.cn 恒生指数涨幅为0.18%。港股互联网板块相较恒生科技指数跑赢4.55%。 市场表现  数据跟踪：1）游戏：2月中国市场同比增长 15.12%，环比增长 2.17%。根据伽马 数据，2024年2月，中国游戏市场规模为248.75亿元，环比增长2.17%，同比上 传 ...

财务报表分析和预测 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------|-------|-------------------------|-------|------------------------|-------|-------------------------|-------|-------| | 主要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表 ( 百万元 ) | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 每股指标 ( 元 ) | | | | | 营业总收入 | | 3,134 3,438 4,070 4,828 | | | | 每股收益 | | | 3.23 4.13 4.95 6.00 | | 营业成本 | | 155 189 224 241 | | | | 每股净资产 | | | 13.49 17.65 22.60 28.59 | | 毛利率 % | 95.1% | 94.5% | 94 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 农林牧渔 2024年4月2日 农林牧渔 猪价震荡上涨，均重延续上行 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 赵雅斐 资格编号：S0120523070006  生猪：猪价震荡上涨，均重继续上行。1）周内先涨后跌，猪价震荡上涨。上周猪 邮箱：zhaoyf＠tebon.com.cn 价先涨后跌，周前期头部企业主动拉涨，叠加部分地区二育增量，猪价上涨；周后 市场表现 期需求端持续低迷，多数屠企减量收猪，下压猪价回落。3月29日猪价15.11元/ 公斤，周环比+0.87%。2）屠企宰量低位运行，冻品库存率略降。近期终端消费表 沪深300 现低迷，鲜品走货不佳，屠宰量低位运行。3月29日涌益样本屠企屠宰量12.3万 4% 0% 头，周环比+0.23%。近期猪价上行，屠企陆续出库往期冻品，冻品库存略降。3月 -4% 22日全国冻品库容率18.35%，周环比-0.28pct。3）压栏产能陆续释放，生猪均重 -7% 延续上涨。集团场持续滚动出栏，同时因猪价阶段性高位，散户压栏大猪出栏积极 -11% -15% 性提升，带动生猪交易均重上涨。3月 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 西部矿业(601168.SH) 2024年04月02日 西部矿业（601168.SH）：玉龙 买入（首次） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 铜矿发力改扩建，西部矿业龙头 当前价格(元)：19.22 腾飞 证券分析师 翟堃 投资要点 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 西部矿业：西部地区矿企龙头。公司是中国第二大铅锌精矿生产商、第五大铜精矿 张崇欣  生产商，主要从事铜、铅、锌、铁、镍、钒、钼等基本有色金属、黑色金属的采选 资格编号：S0120522100003 冶、贸易等业务，以及黄金、白银等稀贵金属和硫精矿等产品的生产及销售。截至 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 2024年1月31日，西部矿业集团有限公司持有公司31.27%的股份，为公司控股 研究助理 股东，实控人为青海省国资委。截至2023年报，公司全资持有或控股并经营十五 谷瑜 座矿山，其中，有色金属矿山6座、铁及铁多金属矿山8座、盐湖矿山1座，公 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 司绝大部分收入来自铜类产品 （铜精矿 ...

程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱： chengqiang@tebon.com.cn 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | PMI | | 当前三大亮点和未来三大关注点 | | | | —— | | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：3 月 PMI 在季节性回升的基础上，叠加复工复产、重大项目推动和外 需支撑，建筑业 PMI 以及小型企业 PMI 景气度超预期回升。一般来说，3 月 PMI 存在季节性上行，但是此次上行幅度超市场预期，为更好分析数据超预期原因， 我们梳理了 3 月 PMI 数据的三大亮点以及未来的三大关注点。三大亮点分别为： 产需视角下，3 月供需均呈现改善状态，需求不足问题边际小幅改善；结构视角 下，大中小型企业分化程度减弱，小型企业景气度回升明显；非制造业视角下， 复工复产加速+重大项目推动建筑业景气度回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The tightening cycle is nearing its end, supporting the long-term value of gold and silver prices [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Gold prices have increased, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 528 CNY/gram, a weekly change of +3.2% [9][13] - COMEX silver prices rose by 1.0% to 25.1 USD/ounce [9] - Industrial metal prices generally increased, with SHFE copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel futures closing at +0.3%, +1.6%, +3.6%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -2.8% respectively [4] Precious Metals - Gold's spot price rose, with a weekly change of +3.2% and a monthly change of +9.9% [13] - The gold ETF holdings decreased, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased to 72,530 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.3% and a monthly change of +5.5% [25] - Aluminum prices rose to 19,710 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +1.6% and a monthly change of +4.9% [35] - Lead prices increased to 16,815 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +3.6% [49] - Zinc prices decreased to 20,945 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -1.3% [53] - Tin prices rose to 228,100 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.5% [57] - Nickel prices fell to 130,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -2.8% [62] Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides decreased by 0.6% [71] Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices increased slightly by 0.7%, while lithium carbonate prices fell [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the non-ferrous metals sector may yield excess returns as the global monetary environment shifts from tight to loose, with a focus on precious metals, industrial metals, and new materials [5]

Economic Recovery - Traditional manufacturing industry chain production recovery is better than high-end manufacturing, with 19 industries showing cumulative year-on-year growth in industrial added value above the five-year average[2] - Cumulative year-on-year profit growth in 11 industries exceeds the five-year average, indicating production recovery is stronger than profit recovery[2] Profit and Production Analysis - In February, industrial enterprises' added value growth was 7%, close to the five-year average of 7.36%, while profit growth was 10.2%, significantly lower than the five-year average of 21.74%[55] - The recovery in production is primarily seen in traditional industries such as black and non-ferrous metals, and consumer manufacturing (food, textiles, and apparel)[2] Employment and Inflation - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims decreasing, and employment numbers expected to increase steadily in March[4] - February's U.S. PCE inflation was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while core PCE inflation also met expectations at 0.3%[75] Market Trends - In March, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 5.57%, indicating market volatility and sector rotation[58] - The advanced manufacturing sector showed a strong performance with a 4.09% increase, while technology sectors lagged behind[63] Investment Recommendations - Focus on short-term rebounds in leading consumer electronics and long-term investments in cyclical sectors such as agriculture, insurance, and new energy vehicles[16] - The report suggests that the high-end manufacturing sector's supply-demand gap may have peaked, with potential profit improvements expected[21]