[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 煤炭开采 2024年04月12日 煤炭行业点评：山西省煤炭资源 煤炭开采 税上调落地，焦煤价格支撑更强 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002  事件：2023年12月18日，山西司法厅发布《山西省关于资源税具体适用税率等 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 有关事项的决定（修正草案）》公开征求意见的公告。2024年3月28日，法案落 薛磊 地，山西省人民代表大会常务委员会通过《关于资源税具体适用税率等有关事项的 资格编号：S0120524020001 决定》，将“煤”税目原矿税率由8%调整为10%，选矿税率由6.5%调整为9%， 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 自4月1日起施行。 研究助理  内蒙、山西、宁夏资源税排在全国前列。根据我们梳理全国各省的煤炭资源税，2024 年内蒙古、山西、宁夏三省原矿税率10%、选矿9%，陕西榆林市原矿税率10%、 谢佶圆 选矿9.5%。 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn  税率上调明显支撑焦 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [5] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 28.97 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.22%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.80% to 2.21 billion yuan [5] - The company has strengthened its full industry chain layout, showcasing cost advantages, particularly in the production of aluminum ingots and aluminum foil [5][6] - The average aluminum price in China for 2023 was 18,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.2% despite a recovery trend [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 694 million yuan for 2023, with a payout ratio of 31.5% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 6.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.90%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.1% [5] - The gross margin for self-produced aluminum ingots was 20.78%, down 2.16 percentage points year-on-year due to falling aluminum prices and rising raw material costs [5] - The production volume of self-produced aluminum ingots reached 1.1655 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.64%, with a capacity utilization rate of 97.1% [5] Production and Capacity Expansion - The aluminum foil production line has a planned capacity of 300,000 tons, with the first phase of 150,000 tons nearing full-scale production [6] - The company has secured exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite from a local mining company in Guinea, with a production capacity of approximately 6 million tons per year [6] - Tianshan Aluminum is also planning to invest 1.556 billion USD in Indonesia to build a 2 million ton alumina production line [6] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Tianshan Aluminum for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.21 billion yuan, 3.55 billion yuan, and 3.70 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 45.6%, 10.6%, and 4.3% [5][19] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 10.07x, 9.10x, and 8.73x, respectively [5][19]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 有色金属 2024年04月13日 有色金属 锡：需求增长明显，供给扰动仍存 优于大市（上调） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002  事件。近期锡价表现强势，4月10日国内锡价突破25万。 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 张崇欣  供给稳定但未来仍存扰动。从国内的精锡生产情况来看，1-3 月国内精锡产量约 资格编号：S0120522100003 42406吨，同比上升约6.3%。进口方面，当前缅甸矿山停产并未对我国锡矿进口 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 带来重大影响，1-2月我国对缅甸的锡矿进口约25937.06吨，同比提升约7.5%。 高嘉麒 但另一方面，未来缅甸方面锡矿供给尚不明朗。根据Mysteel调研显示，缅甸佤邦 资格编号：S0120523070003 工业矿产管理局于2024年4月7日正式签署发布《关于除曼相矿区外其他矿区、 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 矿点需要申请报备复工复产的通知》。而缅甸地区的锡矿主要产自佤邦曼相 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 相关研究 CPI：3 月 CPI 同比上升 0.1%，涨幅大幅回落；环比下降 1.0%，结束连续三个月 的环比上升。3 月 CPI 同比 0.1%，前值 0.7%，环比-1.0%，前值 1.0%。具体来 看，食品项同比-2.7%，前值-0.9%；非食品项同比 0.7%，前值 1.1%；消费品项 同比-0.4%，前值-0.1%；服务项同比 0.8%，前值 1.9%。环比方面，食品项环比3.2%，前值 3.3%；非食品项环比-0.5%，前值 0.5%；消费品项环比-0.9%，前值 1.1%；服务项环比-1.1%，前值 1.0%。扣除食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比 0.6%，前 值 1.2%，环比-0.6%，前值 0.5%。 猪肉方面，CPI 猪肉项同比由 2 月的上涨 0.2%转为下跌 2.4%，环比由 2 月的上 涨 7.2%转为下跌 6.7%。春节过后猪肉价格季节性回落，3 月猪肉价格同环比由升 转降。从供给端来看，截止 2 月，能繁母猪存栏连续第 8 个月下降，供给去化持续 推进，但存栏量仍在 4000 万头以上，猪肉平均批发价后续或仍在 20-21 元/公斤 之间波动，但考虑到 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电子 2024年04月11日 电子 24Q1 全球 PC 出货回暖，AI PC 或掀起新一轮换机热潮 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001  事件：据IDC发布数据，PC市场在经历两年下滑之后，于2024年Q1恢复增长， 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 出货量达5980万台，同比增长1.5%。 市场表现  2024Q1全球PC出货量恢复至疫情前水平，联想领跑蝉联冠军，笔记本回暖相对 明显。据IDC数据，经历了至2023Q4连续8个季度的同比下滑后，PC出货量于 电子 沪深300 2024Q1终于迎来同比增长至5980万台，释放了PC出货量或触底回升的信号。 7% 0% 2024Q1全球PC出货量恢复至疫情前水平，与2019Q1的6050万台持平；其中 -7% 联想夺得2024年第一季度出货量冠军，出货量1370万台，市场份额23.0%；惠 -15% -22% 普排名第二，出货 1200 万台，市场份额 20.1%；戴尔位居第三，出货量 930 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29.443 billion, 31.632 billion, and 33.002 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 10.8%, 7.4%, and 4.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.508 billion, 1.764 billion, and 2.027 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.5%, 17%, and 14.9% respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 11.2X, 9.6X, and 8.3X [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 26.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.306 billion yuan, up 19.82% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 2.11 yuan [19][22] - The LNG business generated revenue of 14.69 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 18.64% and a gross margin of 7.28% [22] - The special gas segment saw rapid growth, with revenue reaching 160 million yuan in 2023, driven by a significant increase in sales volume [10][22] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The forecast for operating income and net profit for the years 2024 to 2026 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with operating income expected to reach 29.443 billion yuan in 2025 and 33.002 billion yuan in 2026 [15][22] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 7.8% in 2023 to 9.0% by 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [15][22] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a dual-resource pool strategy, which is expected to enhance its market position and operational stability [22] - The energy service business is anticipated to play a stabilizing role in the company's overall profitability, with high gross margins expected to further improve the profit structure [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [12][14]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slight decline in revenue, with a 2.73% year-over-year decrease, attributed to market demand fluctuations [17]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product matrix and deepening its engagement in the end market, which includes significant advancements in R&D and product innovation [4][5]. - Financial forecasts for 2024-2026 predict revenue growth of 25.3%, 19.5%, and 17.7% respectively, alongside net profit growth of 26.2%, 25.8%, and 26.2% [18]. Financial Overview - Total revenue for 2023 was 1,026 million, with a projected increase to 1,286 million in 2024 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 was 166 million, with expectations of rising to 210 million in 2024 [2]. - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 29.3%, with projections for gradual improvement in subsequent years [11]. Product and Market Analysis - The company has seen a decrease in revenue from CNC tool products, which accounted for 56.36% of total revenue in 2023, down 9.98% year-over-year [24]. - Conversely, revenue from hard alloy products increased by 9.98%, making up 43.40% of total revenue [24]. - The overseas market showed strong growth, with a 31.44% increase in revenue, highlighting successful international expansion efforts [24].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 伟星新材(002372.SZ) 2024年04月09日 买入（维持） 伟星新材（002372.SZ）：毛利率改善支撑 所属行业：建筑材料/装修建材 业绩增长，分红加码提升股东回报 当前价格(元)：16.46 证券分析师 投资要点 闫广 资格编号：S0120521060002 事件：2024 年 4 月 8 日，公司发布 2023 年年度报告，2023 年公司实现营收约  邮箱：yanguang＠tebon.com.cn 63.78亿元，同比-8.27%，实现归母净利润约14.32亿元，同比+10.40%，实现扣 王逸枫 非归母净利润约 12.75 亿元，同比+0.53%。分季度来看，23Q4 公司实现营收约 资格编号：S0120524010004 26.32亿元，同比-5.67%（同比降幅较上季度收窄3.52pct），环比+74.48%，实现 邮箱：wangyf6＠tebon.com.cn 归母净利润约5.58亿元，同比+5.60%（同比增速较上季度扩大11.55pct），环比 研究助理 +46.80%，实现扣非归母净利润约 4.28 亿元，同比-19. ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 房地产 2024年04月09日 当前形势下如何推进房地产良性 房地产 发展新模式 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 构建房地产发展新模式系列报告一 金文曦 [ 投Tab 资le_ 要Su 点mm ：ar y] 资格编号：S0120522100001 邮箱：jinwx＠tebon.com.cn 当前地产行业仍面临销售下行、投资承压的格局。近期限制性政策进一步退出，  多地推出刺激楼市政策，但销售市场仍未出现明显改善。正如《政策优化+“三大 研究助理 工程”，重塑行业正循环》中提及，当前楼市面临三大问题亟待解决。进入 2024 蔡萌萌 年，上海优化外环以外区域（崇明区除外）限购、深圳取消“7090”政策等刺激 邮箱：caimm＠tebon.com.cn 楼市，重点城市销售市场出现一定程度复苏，但1-2月全国商品住宅销售面积和销 售金额仍大幅下滑。 市场表现 房地产 沪深300  “三大工程”建设有望提速，稳投资助力稳增长。2023年以来，中央多次会议提 7% 0% 及“三大工程”建设，同时 PSL、专项债和商业银行配套资金等多渠道资金支持 -7% “三大工程” ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 汽车 2024年04月10日 3 月乘用车批发销量同环比提 汽车 升，车展+政策预期下车市热度有 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 望提振 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 3月乘用车批发销量为218.9万辆，同比+10.1%，环比+68.0%。3月乘用车批发 资格编号：S0120523100002  销量为218.9万辆，同比+10.1%，环比+68.0%，乘用车零售销量为168.7万辆， 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 同比+6.0%，环比+52.8%。3 月销量同环比均增长受益于春节因素带来的节后消 赵启政 费恢复。春节后价格战迅速升温，导致消费者观望心理加重，加之对部分新车的 资格编号：S0120523120002 关注以及对以旧换新政策的预期，3月车市呈现慢热型启动。2024年 1-3月乘用 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebon.com.cn 车累计批发销量为558.9万辆，同比+10.6%，累计零售销量为482.9万辆，同比 ...