Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ximai Food (002956.SZ) as a first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - Ximai Food, established in 1994, is a leading player in the oat food industry with a comprehensive supply chain [8]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth over the past five years, with total revenue increasing from 851 million yuan in 2018 to 1.578 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 13.1% [25]. - The oat industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 10.134 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth potential due to low per capita consumption compared to developed countries [31][33]. - The company is diversifying its sales channels, with a notable increase in online sales, particularly through platforms like Douyin [39][42]. - The acquisition of Chengdu Desai Kanggu in March 2024 marks the company's entry into the yogurt-topped oat market, expected to contribute to future revenue growth [49]. Company Overview - Ximai Food is recognized as the "first oat stock" in China, focusing on the entire industry chain from breeding to sales [8]. - The company has a stable and concentrated ownership structure, primarily held by the Xie family [9]. - The product matrix includes pure oats, composite oats, and cold oats, with composite oats rapidly gaining market share [14]. Financial Analysis - The company's net profit has faced pressure, declining from 137 million yuan in 2018 to 115 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of -3.4% [25]. - The gross profit margin has been affected by rising raw material costs, with a margin of 44.5% in 2023 [27]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.968 billion yuan, 2.404 billion yuan, and 2.923 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 134 million yuan, 191 million yuan, and 243 million yuan [52]. Industry Analysis - The oat industry in China is characterized by a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% from 2019 to 2024 [31]. - Instant oats are expected to continue being the mainstream product, while online sales channels are increasingly important [32]. - The industry is currently dominated by a few key players, with Ximai Food holding a market share of 26% [33]. Future Development - The company is enhancing its channel penetration and has established a robust sales network with 1,718 suppliers as of the end of 2023 [39]. - The rapid growth of snack wholesale channels is expected to provide additional revenue opportunities [41]. - The company aims to leverage its strong customer loyalty and pricing power to benefit from the growth of the snack wholesale market [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Trump may pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could positively impact precious metals [5]. - The report notes a mixed performance in industrial metals, with copper prices declining while other metals show varied trends [5]. - The overall outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is optimistic due to supportive monetary policies and potential demand recovery [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price at 646 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 1.2% and a yearly change of 35.0% [14]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are mixed, with SHFE copper down 0.9% and LME copper up 0.9% [33]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose, while tungsten concentrate prices remained stable [79]. - Small Metals: Prices for manganese and magnesium increased [84]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices remained stable, with a focus on future demand growth [97]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.91% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.33% [109]. 3. Important Events Review - Trump expressed intentions to advocate for lower interest rates during a speech at the World Economic Forum, which could influence market dynamics [112]. 4. Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [114][115].

Market Performance - Global stock markets saw more gains than losses last week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the major markets[1] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by +2.2%, +1.7%, and +1.7% respectively[1] - European markets showed mixed results, with France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX increasing, while the UK's FTSE 100 experienced a slight pullback[1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, most indices rose, with only India's SENSEX30 showing a minor decline[1] Earnings Reports - Major Wall Street banks reported strong earnings, boosting market confidence, with Netflix's Q4 revenue at $10.25 billion and net profit at $1.87 billion, exceeding expectations[2] - Netflix's paid membership surpassed 300 million, adding over 19 million new members, a record high[2] - TSMC also reported Q4 revenue of $26.88 billion, contributing to positive sentiment in the tech sector[2] Monetary Policy and Risks - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, marking the largest increase since February 2007, which may impact global financial markets[3] - Risks include potential inflation rebounds exceeding expectations, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating unexpectedly[2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining sector is expected to see a rebound in demand, driven by policy support and a recovery in the economy, which will enhance the price outlook for coal [23][24] - The report highlights the significance of high-dividend coal stocks, suggesting that they will become a key focus for investors [26][27] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of increased liquidity in the capital markets due to the influx of long-term funds [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In Q4 2024, the coal sector declined by 2.29%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 8.56%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 10.85 percentage points [6][12] - Among sub-sectors, coking coal outperformed, while thermal coal saw a decline of 4.08% [12] 2. Fund Holdings Overview - The coal sector's holdings in public funds increased to 0.99%, indicating a narrowing of the underweight position [16] - The total number of shares held in coal companies rose by 14.04 million shares in Q4 2024, with 15 companies experiencing increased holdings [20][21] 3. Long-term Returns - The average compound return for coal companies since their listing until Q4 2024 is 9.3%, with reinvested dividends yielding an average of 9.7% [29] - The report suggests that high-dividend coal stocks are likely to attract more investment due to favorable economic conditions and policy support [26][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main areas: high-quality dividends, dual-coke elasticity, and long-term growth potential [31][35] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Coal Energy, and Yancoal Australia, among others [31][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of AI Agents as a significant trend, with the market expected to reach $5 billion by 2024 and grow to $47 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.8% [5]. - OpenAI's launch of the Operator, powered by the Computer-Using Agent (CUA) model, demonstrates advancements in AI capabilities, achieving task success rates of 38.1% on OSWorld, 58.1% on WebArena, and 87% on WebVoyager [5]. - The report emphasizes the increasing involvement of major tech companies in AI Agent development, indicating a robust competitive landscape and potential for rapid technological evolution [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector has shown a performance trend against the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations observed from January to September 2024 [3]. Related Research - Several related reports are mentioned, focusing on advancements in AI capabilities and the implications for the computing sector, including the launch of low-altitude cloud services and the impact of AI regulations [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BoRui Data, Fanwei Network, Kingdee International, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in AI and computing technologies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the infrastructure for edge computing is taking shape, leading to a potential surge in consumer applications [4][14] - It emphasizes the acceleration of GPU iteration cycles, which may shift the C-end market towards a growth-oriented trajectory [15][16] - Continuous investment in computing power infrastructure by both China and the US is noted as a significant trend [16][18] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The initial establishment of edge computing capabilities is expected to lead to a boom in consumer applications, with companies like移远通信 and广和通 launching AI solutions for smart toys [4][14] - The acceleration of GPU iteration cycles is anticipated to impact the industry positively, with a notable increase in demand for IoT solutions, as evidenced by a 25% year-on-year growth in China's cellular IoT module shipments [15] - The report forecasts a substantial growth in the AI Agent market in China, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 72.7% from 2023 to 2028 [15] Industry News - The establishment of the National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund with a capital of 60.06 billion RMB is expected to support the AI industry [18] - Major IoT module manufacturers are integrating large AI models into their solutions, indicating a shift towards AI-driven applications [19] - The monthly active users of AIGC apps in China have surpassed 100 million, reflecting strong demand for AI applications [20] - The successful launch of 18 satellites for the Qianfan constellation marks a significant advancement in satellite communication capabilities [23] Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector saw a 4.35% increase this week, outperforming major indices [24] - Key stocks to watch include those related to CPO and AI edge applications, such as中际旭创 and博创科技 [28] - Long-term focus includes major operators like中国移动 and equipment manufacturers like中兴通讯 [28]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 周诗琪 资格编号：S0120524120003 邮箱：zhousq＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《——商贸社服周专题 1229-复盘 万代南梦宫在中国市场发展情况》， 2024.12.29 2.《——商贸社服周专题 1222-微信 小店送礼功能灰测，依靠社交属性快 速破圈》，2024.12.22 3.《——商社板块 25 全年策略-对消 费乐观一些》，2024.12.10 长期推荐巨子生物、爱美客；宠物处于量价提升的高增长阶段，国货性价比替代并 在双十一取得优秀成绩，行业具有逆周期特征，长期推荐乖宝宠物、弹性关注中宠 股份；旅游行业自疫情后迎来景气度攀升，国人对于走进户外、休闲度假的需求正 在提升，在此背景下我们看好旅游消费，建议关注同程旅 ...

煤炭 1.《新集能源（601918.SH）：业绩 符合预期，煤电一体成长可期》， 2025.1.9 2.《煤炭周报：煤价触底反弹，坚 守红利逻辑》，2025.1.5 3.《煤炭周报：煤价止跌企稳，持 续看好红利价值》，2024.12.29 4.《煤炭周报：政策加码，重视红 利价值》，2024.12.22 5.《煤炭行业点评：政策支持力度 提 升 ， 红 利 价 值 持 续 显 现 》， 2024.12.19 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 37% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 2025 年 01 月 25 日 煤炭周报：政策再加码，持续关 注红利投资机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 供需两弱，动力煤价下跌。 A）价格及事件 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) as a first coverage [1]. Core Views - MINISO is positioned as a global leader in the trendy lifestyle retail sector, focusing on high-quality, cost-effective products for young consumers. The company has successfully expanded its presence with 7,186 stores across 111 countries as of September 30, 2024 [11][12]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.35% in revenue from 2020 to 2023, and a significant recovery post-pandemic, achieving a revenue growth of 39.43% in 2023 [15][16]. - MINISO's strategic focus on IP (intellectual property) upgrades and global expansion is expected to drive future growth, with plans to increase store count significantly in high-consumption markets like North America and Europe [47][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - MINISO is the largest private label retailer globally, established in 2009, targeting young consumers with a focus on trendy, affordable products. The company has developed two main brands: MINISO and TOPTOY [11][12]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 62.5% of the shares, ensuring stable governance [21][23]. 2. Historical Success Factors - The company has successfully navigated the competitive retail landscape by focusing on essential consumer goods and maintaining a self-operated sales model, which enhances brand recognition [27][28]. - MINISO's product strategy emphasizes frequent new product launches and competitive pricing, supported by a strong supply chain [30][32]. 3. Future Growth Prospects - The company aims to enhance its IP strategy, with a target of over 50% of sales coming from IP-related products by 2028. Currently, IP products account for over 30% of total sales [48][49]. - MINISO plans to expand its global footprint, targeting an annual increase of 900-1,100 stores worldwide from 2024 to 2028, with a focus on high-value markets [72][63]. 4. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts MINISO's revenue to reach CNY 171.67 billion, CNY 207.55 billion, and CNY 241.04 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 26.9 billion, CNY 33.5 billion, and CNY 40.8 billion [78]. - The company's valuation is projected to improve as it transitions from a channel retailer to a brand retailer, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.5, 16.5, and 13.5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [78][79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned from a single product focus to a diversified beverage group, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.9% in revenue from 2019 to 2023, with revenue reaching 11.26 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34] - The energy drink market in China is expanding, with significant growth potential in the younger demographic, and the company is well-positioned to capture this market [6][42] - The company is leveraging digital transformation and a robust marketing strategy to enhance brand recognition and market share [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix centered around energy drinks, with significant revenue growth from 4.21 billion yuan in 2019 to 11.26 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34] - The company has established a national sales network covering 3.6 million active stores, reflecting a 9.09% year-on-year increase [6][15] 2. Market Performance - The energy drink market in China was valued at 57.57 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 11.8% from 2013 to 2028 [42] - The company has achieved a market share of 43.02% in the energy drink segment, ranking first in sales volume [25][51] 3. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 16.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5% [16][150] - The net profit is expected to grow to 3.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 61% increase compared to the previous year [16][150] 4. Product Strategy - The company has implemented a "1+6+N" multi-category strategy, introducing new products such as electrolyte drinks and low-sugar tea, which have shown significant revenue growth [6][25] - The electrolyte drink "Brew Water" achieved a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 292% increase year-on-year [6][16] 5. International Expansion - The company plans to establish a production base in Indonesia to enhance its presence in the Southeast Asian market, which is expected to reach a market size of 2.64 billion USD by 2025 [6][125] - The company has already entered 23 countries and regions, with overseas revenue contributing 0.14% to total revenue in the first half of 2024 [6][142] 6. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 20.68 billion yuan and 25.18 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [16][150] - The report emphasizes the company's solid brand, product, and channel advantages, which create a robust competitive moat in the beverage industry [6][152]