煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业绩同环比下滑，寻找相对确定性投资机会。据 CCTD 中国煤炭市场网， 2024 年煤炭全行业实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to perform well in the long term despite recent price fluctuations. The report notes a slight increase of 0.33% in domestic spot gold prices and highlights improving international trade conditions, which may influence gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - Industrial metal prices have mostly declined, with specific changes noted in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices. However, demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to offset declines in traditional industries [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight increase, while international trade issues are showing signs of improvement [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have varied, with copper prices slightly increasing by 0.3% [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth elements like praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, indicating a potential rise in demand due to manufacturing recovery [30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The report includes various tables summarizing price changes for different metals, indicating overall market trends [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include the resumption of production at a major nickel plant in Indonesia and the discovery of a significant copper deposit by Lundin Mining in South America [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the long-standing trade friction between China and the U.S. may ease, leading to potential benefits for the Chinese industry [10][11] - It highlights that Chinese manufacturers are becoming indispensable in the international supply chain, particularly in the IoT module market and AI hardware supply [11] - The report anticipates adjustments in AI chip export restrictions, which could alter the competitive landscape in the AI sector [12][13] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - **U.S.-China Trade Relations**: The report indicates that U.S.-China negotiations may begin, with expectations of tariff reductions, particularly on the current 145% tariffs imposed by the U.S. [10] - **Chinese Industry Benefits**: It notes that Chinese firms dominate the global IoT module market, holding over 50% market share among the top three manufacturers [11] - **AI Chip Export Regulations**: The report discusses potential relaxations in AI chip export restrictions by the U.S., which could significantly impact American companies, especially in the context of the growing Chinese AI market projected to reach $50 billion [12][13] Industry News - **Low-altitude Economy in Wuhan**: Wuhan plans to establish 1,000 low-altitude takeoff and landing sites, aiming for a 20% increase in the low-altitude economy [14] - **Alibaba's ZeroSearch**: Alibaba has open-sourced the ZeroSearch model, significantly reducing costs by over 87% while enhancing search capabilities [15] - **Starlink in India**: Starlink has received approval to provide satellite communication services in India, which may accelerate satellite internet development globally [16] - **Shenzhen's 5G Network**: Shenzhen is constructing a comprehensive "5G + millimeter wave + satellite" network, aiming for full coverage and improved infrastructure [17] Weekly Review and Focus - **Market Performance**: The telecommunications sector saw a slight increase of 0.02%, underperforming compared to major indices, with notable gains in optical modules and low-altitude economy sectors [18][21] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the overseas supply chain, such as Yiyuan Communication and Industrial Fulian, as well as long-term attention on major telecom operators and infrastructure providers [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The future battlefield's "intelligence supremacy" is key to victory, driven by advancements in foundational technology and the military's ability to process big data and utilize AI systems for data analysis and weapon control [5][18] - The company is positioned as a leader in AI and data analysis, directly comparable to Palantir (PLTR), with significant growth potential in the defense and public safety sectors [6][30] Summary by Sections Investment Five Elements - The company is fundamentally an AI SaaS and data analysis application company, focusing on real-world scenarios and needs to enhance upstream capabilities [10] - The strategic product "Star Map Luoshu" is expected to replicate the success of PLTR's AIP platform [10] - The company has accumulated 20 years of experience in defense remote sensing data analysis, providing a deep understanding of specialized industry know-how [47] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 43.11 billion, 61.74 billion, and 88.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.3%, 43.2%, and 43.7% respectively [11][9] - Expected net profit for the same period is 4.90 billion, 8.09 billion, and 12.20 billion yuan, with growth rates of 39.4%, 65.0%, and 50.7% respectively [11][9] Differentiation from Market Views - The market views the company as a traditional remote sensing satellite application company; however, it is redefined as a generative AI SaaS and data analysis company with extensive real-world scenarios [12] - The company is leading the industry in commercial model upgrades, moving from specialized to government and commercial sectors [12] - Concerns about future growth rates are addressed by the company's proactive structural adjustments and focus on high-quality growth [13] Catalysts for Stock Performance - Progress in product development and implementation in the AI and data analysis fields [13] - Orders from specialized, government, and commercial clients [13] - The valuation situation of PLTR and supportive policies for low-altitude new infrastructure [13]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2025年5月7日 24年报&25Q1季报总结： 盈利反转之年，AI产业率先体现 证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 0 核心逻辑 降本增效效益显现，25年或迎来盈利拐点。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。 1 2024年计算机行业收入同比稳健增长，2025Q1利润端增速迎来拐点。2024年，计算机行业整体实现营收11563.43亿元，同比增长3.50%；实现归母净利润 144.41亿元，同比下滑48.97%；实现扣非归母净利润56.16亿元，同比下滑53.54%。2025Q1，计算机行业整体实现营收2615.94亿元，同比增长15.13%；实现 归母净利润26.33亿元，同比增长230.22%；实现扣非归母净利润1.12亿元，同比增长108.22%。 受益于降本增效，25Q1归母 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The year 2025 may witness a profit turning point for the industry, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvement [4] - The AI sector is leading in performance, with revenue and profit growth rates for AI applications and terminals being notably high [42] Summary by Sections 1. Profitability and Cash Flow - In 2024, the computer industry achieved a revenue of 1,156.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.50%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 48.97% to 14.44 billion yuan [11][9] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 261.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.13%, and a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, up 230.22% [15][12] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 25.12% and 1.25%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [23][24] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin and net profit margin improved to 21.86% and 1.01%, respectively [24][28] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 71.25 billion yuan, a 7.09% increase year-on-year, while Q1 2025 showed a cash flow of -30.48 billion yuan, improving by 39.61% year-on-year [33][33] 2. AI Sector Performance - In 2024, the revenue growth rates for AI terminals and applications were 25.72% and 12.40%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 19.23% and 24.84% [42] - In Q1 2025, the revenue growth rates for AI terminals and applications were 27.74% and 13.77%, with net profit growth rates of 37.86% and 15.91% [42] 3. Institutional Holdings and Valuation - As of Q1 2025, the proportion of computer funds held by institutions was 3.11%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points [77] - The computer index (Shenwan) had a PE ratio of 81.54 and a PS ratio of 3.18 as of April 30, 2025, indicating potential for valuation improvement [80][80] - The market performance of the computer industry ranked sixth among 31 sectors from January 1 to April 30, 2025, with a cumulative increase of 2.35% [77]

证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 积极信号有望释放 ——美联储 5 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 背景：美东时间 5 月 7 日（北京时间 5 月 8 日凌晨），美联储将公布 5 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 5 月按兵不动的概率为 95%， 由于美国经济尚具有一定韧性，关税带来的影响目前从就业与通胀角度看尚不显 著，联储预计会保留足够的政策灵活性，以应对未来的较大不确定性。 焦点：联储如何评价经济形势？关注鲍威尔发布会言论。当前美国经济数据显示出 温和转弱的特征，但尚未显示出衰退迹象。联邦政府和从事 ToG 相关业务企业在 4 月的大规模裁员并未明显体现在非农数据上，PMI 数据也维持较强势的状态，但 后续谈判进度存在较大的不确定性，一旦谈判 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand dynamics are trending towards looseness, leading to potential weakness in oil prices. The OPEC+ decision to increase oil supply significantly may exacerbate concerns about oversupply in the market [5][27]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term cycle, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-side dynamics. Key investment themes include core assets entering a long-term value zone and sectors with supply constraints showing early signs of elasticity [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policy initiatives are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities in chemicals. The expansion cycle since 2021 may be nearing its end, and the industry is poised for a new round of supply-side reforms [13]. - The report highlights the potential for core chemical assets to recover in valuation and profitability as risks have been sufficiently released [13]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 0.6% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.9 percentage points [5][16]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 1.2%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [5][16]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 286 stocks rose while 134 fell during the week. The top gainers included Jinlitai (+31.1%) and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (+21%) [25][26]. - The report notes significant declines in stocks such as Xinjing Road (-18.5%) and Youfu Co. (-14.8%) [25][26]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day starting June, which may lead to a weaker oil price environment [27][28]. - The report discusses the implications of oil price fluctuations on chemical companies, emphasizing that a decline in oil prices could lead to cost improvements in the modified plastics sector [29]. - Company announcements include revenue growth for companies like Qiangguang Co. and Yungli Co., while others like Tongde Chemical reported significant declines in revenue [30][31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 36.441 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 40.72%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.961 billion yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year [5] - The coal business showed significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively, benefiting from the ramp-up of the Malang coal mine [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.622 yuan per share, totaling 3.976 billion yuan, with a high payout ratio of 134.3%, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.6% based on the closing price [5] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 39.9 billion yuan, 49.6 billion yuan, and 52.3 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.5 billion yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and 4.4 billion yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.59%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.93% [5] - The coal production for 2024 was 43.2524 million tons, with sales reaching 47.234 million tons, marking increases of 64.02% and 52.39% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 367.93 yuan per ton, down 22.55% year-on-year, while the cost was 283.5 yuan per ton, down 8.63% year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The non-coal business faced challenges, with coal chemical production and sales showing mixed results, while natural gas business remained stable [5] - The company’s coal chemical production was 2.2645 million tons, with sales of 2.4694 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.36% in production but a decrease of 8.42% in sales [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects and strategic partnerships, particularly in coal and coal chemical integration [5] - The introduction of a strategic partner for the Naomao Lake East coal mine is anticipated to accelerate development efforts [5]