2024 年 11月 04 日 证券研究报告。2024年三季报点评 嘉益股份（301004）轻工制造 买入 (##) 当 前价：115.34 元 目标价：——元（6个月） 业绩持续高增,经营景气度延续 投资买点 ● 业绩搞要:公司发布 2024年三季报。24年前三季度公司实现营收 19.9亿元, 同比+61.6%:实现归母净利润 5.3 亿元,同比+69.2%;实现扣非净利润 5.2 亿 元，同比+61.7%。单 Q3公司实现营收 8.2 亿元，同比+42.8%；实现归母净利 润 2.1 亿元,同比+41.8%;实现扣非后归母净利润 2.1 亿元,同比+34.1%。公 司最近3年营收和利润持续高增长,下游需求景气度延续。 ● 盈利能力保持稳定。24年前三季度公司整体毛利率为 39.5%，同比+0.2pp;总 费用率为 7.7%。基本与上年同期持平，其中销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用 率 / 研 发 费 用 率 分 别 为 0.9%/3.8%/-0.2%/3.2%/3.2% ， 同 比 -1pp/-0.02pp/+1.3pp/-0.3pp。综合来看，前三季度公司净利率为 26.7%，同比 +1.2pp。单 Q ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange (北交所) faced a pullback pressure this week, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1144.9, a weekly decline of 9.1%, while the trading volume exceeded 220 billion, maintaining a relatively high historical level [1][16] - Over 80% of companies reported profits in the third quarter, with 7 companies showing a year-on-year net profit growth rate exceeding 200%, and 26 companies exceeding 50% [1][28] - The newly listed stocks, Kobil (科拜尔) and Keli (科力股份), saw significant price increases on their debut days, with Kobil rising by 294.6% and Keli by 397.3% [12][14] Group 2 - As of November 1, 2024, the North Exchange had 256 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 2.17 billion, compared to 8.97 billion for the ChiNext and 11.01 billion for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][9] - The North Exchange's trading volume for the week was 225.84 billion, with an average weekly trading amount of 0.88 billion and a turnover rate of 80.9%, indicating a decrease in liquidity compared to the previous week [2][9] - The North Exchange's PE (TTM, median) was 34.8 times, a decrease of 0.9 times from September 30 [2][9] Group 3 - The third-quarter reports revealed a median revenue growth rate of 3.7% and a median net profit growth rate of -11.5% among the 256 companies that disclosed their reports [28] - Notable companies included Tongguan Mining Construction (铜冠矿建) with a revenue of 990 million and a growth rate of 22.88%, and Green Heng Technology (绿亨科技) with a revenue of 320 million but a decline in net profit by 28.74% [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue showed improvement compared to previous quarters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 6.7% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 15.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, reaching 108.7 billion yuan [1] - The company's profitability improved in Q3, with a net profit margin of 12.3%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 7.6 billion yuan worth of shares as of October 2024, demonstrating confidence in future development [3] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 890 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% [1] - Q3 operating revenue was 291 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.8%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Sales expense ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points to 19.3% in the first three quarters [3] Product and Regional Breakdown - Liquid milk revenue was 575 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 12.1% year-on-year, but showed improvement quarter by quarter [2] - Milk powder and dairy products revenue grew by 7.1% year-on-year to 213 billion yuan, with infant formula achieving high single-digit growth [2] - Ice cream products revenue decreased by 19.6% to 83 billion yuan, but channel inventory remained healthy [2] - Revenue from North China region was 247 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, showing relatively better performance compared to other regions [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 121 billion yuan for 2024, 114 billion yuan for 2025, and 121 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - EPS is projected to be 1.90 yuan in 2024, 1.79 yuan in 2025, and 1.91 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 15x in 2024, 16x in 2025, and 15x in 2026 [4] Industry Context - The report highlights the adjustment of upstream production capacity and the expectation of a new balance in raw milk prices [4] - The company's market share in room-temperature white milk continues to increase, while low-temperature liquid milk shows growth against the trend [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.57 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong operational momentum with a diversified business model, focusing on gypsum board, waterproof materials, and coatings, while expanding its global footprint [1][4]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 20.36 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.15 billion CNY, up 14.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from favorable policies in the real estate market, which are expected to stimulate demand for its products [1][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global leader in the gypsum board industry, with a production capacity exceeding 3.5 billion square meters, and ranks among the top in waterproof materials and coatings in China [4][13]. - It operates under a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on gypsum boards, waterproof materials, and coatings, while enhancing its brand presence with well-known brands like "Longpai" and "Taishan" [4][23]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.77 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit of 930 million CNY, up 8.2% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 30.7% due to soft downstream demand, while the net profit margin fell by 0.6 percentage points to 15.7% [1][17]. Business Diversification - The company has successfully expanded its revenue sources, with gypsum board accounting for 61.4% of total revenue, waterproof materials at 14.1%, and coatings at 13.1% as of H1 2024 [13][22]. - The company is actively pursuing international markets, with production lines established in Uzbekistan and ongoing projects in Thailand and Bosnia [1][13]. Market Outlook - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at supporting housing sales and urban renewal expected to boost demand for construction materials [7][9]. - The company anticipates a recovery in demand for its products, particularly in the waterproof and coatings segments, driven by urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market [19][23]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.41 CNY, 2.89 CNY, and 3.40 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 9 [1][22]. - Revenue is expected to grow to 27.22 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and further growth in subsequent years [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinhua Wenhui (601811) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates a clear advantage in tax policies, maintaining stable operational capabilities despite financial pressures from changes in corporate income tax policies [2] - Xinhua Wenhui is actively pursuing digital transformation and integrating online and offline reading services, enhancing its competitiveness in the national book e-commerce sector [3] - The company is expected to benefit from tax incentives under the Western Development Strategy, which will support stable dividend rates and overall performance [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Xinhua Wenhui achieved operating revenue of 2.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and a pre-tax profit of 219 million, up 15.9% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.6% to 175 million [1][2] - The company's tax rate for Q3 was approximately 16.8%, and for the first three quarters, it was about 12.4%, benefiting from a favorable profit structure [2] Growth Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 1.54 billion, 1.71 billion, and 1.89 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11x, 10x, and 9x [3][4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at 17.66% for 2024, 11.58% for 2025, and 9.29% for 2026 [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is integrating its channel advantages with cultural resources in Sichuan, exploring new business avenues beyond traditional publishing [3] - Xinhua Wenhui is enhancing its e-commerce operations and developing a "cloud store" model to create diverse and personalized reading consumption scenarios [3]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 50.40 yuan (6 months) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under short-term pressure, but Q4 shipments are expected to improve [1] - The core product, artificial heart valves, continues to drive growth, with a 42.8% YoY increase in revenue [1] - The company is deepening its cooperation with Stryker, benefiting from the global trend of fluorescence replacing white light in endoscopy [3] - Domestic strategy focuses on multi-category endoscope development and brand building in key medical fields [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 0.98 billion yuan, down 9.4% YoY, with net profit of 0.27 billion yuan, down 7.0% YoY [3] - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 3.2 billion yuan, down 15.3% YoY, with net profit of 0.97 billion yuan, down 17.6% YoY [3] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 89.7%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY, driven by higher-margin products [1] R&D and Product Pipeline - R&D expenses for Q1-Q3 2024 were 446 million yuan, accounting for 20.2% of revenue [2] - Key products in development include the Renato® and Renatus® heart valve systems, with clinical trials progressing as planned [2] - The company is advancing its pipeline in surgical soft tissue repair, including ophthalmic and vascular biological patches [2] Market and Industry Trends - The global trend of fluorescence replacing white light in endoscopy is creating significant industry opportunities [3] - The company's second-generation 4K endoscope system has shipped over 100 units since its launch in early 2024 [3] - The industry is moving towards multi-technology integration, including fluorescence, 4K, and 3D [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 1.4, 2, and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company is valued at 30x PE for 2025, with a target price of 50.4 yuan [3] Business Segments - Medical devices segment is expected to grow 20%, 32%, and 14% YoY in 2024-2026, with stable pricing [6] - Optical devices segment is expected to decline 16% in 2024 but grow 9.5% in 2025 and 2026 [6] - Endoscope maintenance segment is expected to grow 15% annually from 2024 to 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 7.10 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.16 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.37 billion CNY, a growth of only 7.9% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.64 billion CNY, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 34.1%. However, the net profit for the same quarter decreased by 14.1% to 460 million CNY [2][3]. - The company's television shipments increased by 40% year-on-year, with a total of 4.4 million units shipped in Q3 2024, primarily driven by North American customers preparing for the Q4 peak season [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 21.36 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 24.41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.83 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 15.47% [5][12]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 14.4%, attributed to asset impairment losses and increased tax expenses [3][4]. Business Segments - The company is actively adjusting its networking business, which includes products like set-top boxes and smart speakers, amid increasing competition. Additionally, it is expanding into the optical communication components sector [3][4]. - The LED industry segment is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate similar to the first half of the year, projected at 30% [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are forecasted to be 0.41 CNY, 0.48 CNY, and 0.57 CNY, respectively. The target price of 7.10 CNY is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 for the ODM segment and 20 for the LED segment [4][9].

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 11 月 05 日 证券研究报告•2024 年三季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：13.41 元 太阳纸业（002078）轻工制造 目标价：16.20 元（6 个月） 毛利率周期波动，产能持续稳步扩充 [Table_Summary 业绩摘要：2024] 前三季度公司实现营收 309.8 亿元，同比+6.1%；实现归母净 利润 24.6 亿元，同比+15.1%；实现扣非净利润 26 亿元，同比+24.3%。Q3 公 司实现营收 104.5 亿元，同比+6％；实现归母净利润 7 亿元，同比-20.8%；实 现扣非后归母净利润 7.7亿元，同比-10.7%。推测营收增长主要得益于公司产能 扩张后销量的持续增长，南宁基地年产 30 万吨生活用纸（一期）项目在今年三 季度陆续进入试产阶段。 Q3毛利率周期波动，受浆价纸价影响。24年前三季度公司整体毛利率为 16.4%， 同比+0.9pp，单 Q3 毛利率为 14%，同比-2.8pp。Q3 毛利率下滑推测主要系高 价木浆入库，原材料库存成本上涨，叠加行业需求偏弱、市场竞争加剧导致文化 纸价格下行。24年 Q3针叶浆吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (000338) with a current price of 13.49 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's profitability continues to strengthen, with a gross margin of 21.9% for the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in industry sales, Weichai Power's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 161.95 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 110.2 billion CNY in 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Weichai Power reported revenue of 49.46 billion CNY, down 8.8% year-on-year and 11.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 2.50 billion CNY, down 4.0% year-on-year and 24.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 22.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Market Position - The heavy truck industry saw a sales decline of 5% year-on-year, with Weichai Power selling 221,000 heavy truck engines, including 89,000 natural gas engines, which is an 8.8% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company’s market share in heavy trucks is supported by strong performance from subsidiaries like Shaanxi Automobile and Kion [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Weichai Power is accelerating its strategic layout in the new energy sector, focusing on high-power fuel cells and hydrogen fuel electric heavy trucks, which are leading the industry in sales [4]. - Collaborations with companies like Changhang Group and Yutong Bus are expected to enhance the company's product and market advantages [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 90.14 billion CNY in 2024, 110.15 billion CNY in 2025, and 129.73 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 11 to 8 over the same period [5].

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million yuan, down 95.0% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 720 million yuan, a decline of 9.1%, with a net loss of 30 million yuan, representing a decrease of 133.3% [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39.5%, down 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 0.7%, down 13.9 percentage points [1]. - The company is accelerating investment and merger integration, which is expected to put short-term pressure on profitability [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit of 20 million yuan, down 95.0% [1]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was 720 million yuan, down 9.1%, with a net loss of 30 million yuan [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 39.5%, a decline of 6.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 0.7%, down 13.9 percentage points [1]. Expense Ratios - The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.8%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year; the management expense ratio was 14.7%, up 2.5 percentage points; the R&D expense ratio was 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points; and the financial expense ratio was 2.9%, up 0.8 percentage points [2]. - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 35.6%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Growth Outlook - The company is focusing on external expansion, which is expected to drive long-term performance growth despite short-term amortization costs [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 2.8 billion yuan, 3.2 billion yuan, and 3.5 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 3.7%, 12.0%, and 12.0% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 60 million yuan in 2024, 117 million yuan in 2025, and 157 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -77.45%, 93.91%, and 33.96% respectively [3].