东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 9 月 3 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 站上 3600 美元！金价创历史新高之际 央行黄金持有量 30 年来首超美 债。受投资者预期美联储本月将降息以及外国央行持续强劲的需求推动，纽 约黄金期货价格周二突破 3600 美元，创历史新高。黄金现货价格也飙升至每 盎司 3533 美元以上的历史高点。在金价大涨背后，各国央行对黄金的强劲需 求是关键推动力之一。根据 Crescat Capital 合伙人兼宏观策略师 Tavi Costa 汇编并发布在 X 上的数据，在金价创下新纪录之际，外国央行的黄金持有量 自 1996 年以来首次超过美国国债。（资料来源：东方财富网） 2. 中国大模型企业级市场爆发增长 调用大模型日均消耗激增。生成式 AI 正加速渗透中国企业级市场。国际市场调研机构沙利文(Frost&Sullivan)最 新发布的《中国 GenAI 市场洞察：企业级大模型调用全景研究，2025》(下称 "报告")显示，中国大模型企业级市场呈爆发式增长，较 2024 年下半年， 2025 年上半年日均调用量暴增 363%，已逾 10 万亿 tokens。具体看，在上述 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 9.406 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.56%. Excluding construction revenue, the revenue decline was only 0.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.424 billion, down 11.81% year-on-year. Overall, the company's earnings met expectations [1][2]. - Toll road business revenue slightly increased, with significant revenue growth from the Hu-Ning Expressway, which generated 2.663 billion in revenue, an 8.18% year-on-year increase. This was partly due to traffic rerouting from construction on the Hu-Wu Expressway [1][2]. - Investment income fluctuated significantly, contributing to the decline in profits. The company reported investment income of 700 million, down 33.24% from the previous year, primarily due to reduced earnings from joint ventures and changes in dividend distribution from Jiangsu Bank [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 63.21%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cost, excluding construction costs, decreased by 6.37% [1][2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 5.09 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.38 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.03, and 1.07 [3][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Toll revenue for the first half of 2025 totaled 4.604 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.65%. The average daily revenue from the Hu-Ning Expressway increased by 8.18%, while the Ning-Chang Expressway saw a decline of 15.59% [1][2]. - The average daily toll revenue for the Xi-Yi and Chang-Yi Expressways decreased by 28.08% and 12.28%, respectively, due to construction impacts [1][2]. Cost Management - The company reported a significant reduction in maintenance costs, which fell from 215 million to 114 million year-on-year, contributing to the overall decrease in operating costs [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience with a net profit growth of 8.01% in Q2, despite external challenges, resulting in a total net profit of 12.89 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.90% [2][4] - The air express business showed steady performance, achieving revenue of 4.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.52%, although the gross margin slightly decreased [2][3] - The comprehensive logistics solutions business experienced a revenue decline of 8.29% due to the impact of the U.S. tax policy changes, but the company successfully expanded its pharmaceutical cold chain business, which grew by 37.29% to 1.980 billion yuan [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 11.256 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.26% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.289 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.90% [2] - The air express business generated 4.702 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 18.91%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment saw revenue of 5.252 billion yuan, down 8.29% year-on-year, primarily due to the U.S. tax policy changes affecting cross-border e-commerce [3] - The ground services segment achieved a revenue of 1.287 billion yuan, up 5.38% year-on-year, but the gross margin decreased to 34.19% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.42 billion yuan, 2.75 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.53, 1.73, and 1.88 yuan [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 10.2, 9.0, and 8.3 for the years 2025 to 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to market benchmarks [4]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 15.38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, totaling 2.248 billion yuan, primarily due to the exclusion of Zhuhai Coca-Cola from consolidation and a reduction in logistics trade business [1]. - The port and logistics segment focused on enhancing core business efficiency, resulting in improved profit margins despite a decrease in revenue. The port segment's revenue was 377 million yuan, down 3.95%, with a gross margin of 46.52%. The logistics segment saw a revenue drop of 42.51% to 227 million yuan, but its gross margin increased by 10.04 percentage points to 21.22% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its external market presence, particularly in the Yangtze-Xijiang port logistics cluster, achieving a total cargo throughput of 26.97 million tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.33% [2]. - The renewable energy business showed steady growth, with the power segment's eight wind farms generating 428 million kWh, a 25.48% increase year-on-year. However, operational profit from the wind segment decreased by 16.05% to 39.51 million yuan due to lower comprehensive electricity prices [3]. - The company's total revenue from renewable energy reached 1.25 billion yuan, a 4.82% increase year-on-year, with a slight decline in gross margin to 27.25% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 318 million yuan, 352 million yuan, and 396 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.28 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.37 yuan [4]. - The company is enhancing its port and logistics supply chain system, which is expected to improve competitiveness and risk resilience. The renewable energy segment is anticipated to continue contributing positively to profits [4]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth rate of 3.30% in 2025, followed by 4.77% in 2026 and 7.12% in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating for Li Ning to "Recommended" based on the company's resilient operational capabilities and strategic execution despite short-term performance pressures [3]. Core Views - Li Ning's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit attributable to equity holders decreased by 11.0% to CNY 1.74 billion [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue growth in 2025, focusing on core product categories such as running, basketball, women's sports, outdoor activities, and badminton [3]. - The company aims to enhance its professional sports brand image and prepare for future structural market opportunities with healthy inventory and strong cash flow [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025H1, footwear revenue reached CNY 8.23 billion, up 4.93% year-on-year, accounting for 55.55% of total revenue, while apparel revenue fell by 3.39% to CNY 5.19 billion, representing 35.05% of total revenue [1]. - Gross margin for 2025H1 was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased discounts in the direct sales channel [2]. - The net profit margin was 11.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, affected by higher expenses and impairment losses [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - Operating cash flow for 2025H1 was CNY 2.41 billion, exceeding the current profit, indicating strong cash flow management [2]. - Inventory turnover ratio was 3.6 months, with new products accounting for 87% of the inventory, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts stable revenue for the full year of 2025, with net profit estimates for 2025-2027 being CNY 2.605 billion, CNY 2.985 billion, and CNY 3.244 billion, respectively [3][4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 18.74, 16.36, and 15.05 times, respectively [3].

Group 1 - The report indicates a positive trend in the slow bull market, with market confidence significantly increasing even as the index approaches 3800 points. The market is supported by the revaluation of Chinese assets and the high-quality development of the securities market, opening up mid-term upward space [4][7]. - There is a notable influx of external funds into the market, with last week's trading volume reaching a historical high. The characteristics of this market rally are dominated by institutions and large investors, with large-cap leaders showing strong performance [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that the current market is still in the early stages of a bull market, with technology stocks experiencing significant short-term gains but not showing high levels of bubble formation. The focus on artificial intelligence as a core development direction is clear, suggesting a healthy market trajectory [4][7]. Group 2 - The report highlights that a moderate technology bubble is beneficial for industrial development, particularly in the semiconductor sector, where recent asset consolidation events reflect national technology strategies. This is expected to enhance the growth of China's high-tech industry [5][8]. - The investment style is recommended to focus on large-cap leaders, as institutional investors are more likely to invest based on fundamental analysis rather than speculative trading in small-cap stocks. This trend is contributing to the recent index gains [6][9]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in the artificial intelligence sector, with a strong emphasis on both upstream hardware companies and developments in AI applications. The commercial aerospace sector is also highlighted as a promising area for institutional investment due to its clear future launch expectations [6][9]. Group 3 - The report notes that the ChiNext index is leading the market, with the STAR Market showing significant performance. The core hotspots represented by TMT and non-bank financial sectors are performing strongly, while the banking sector continues to adjust [10][13]. - The report provides insights into market turnover rates, which are approaching previous highs, indicating increased trading activity [16]. - The financing data shows a significant surge, nearing historical highs, which reflects increased investor engagement in the market [18].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Fuling Zhacai [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, a decrease of 1.66% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the revenue reached 600 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.6%, although the net profit decreased by 4.59% [1]. - The company's strategy of optimizing channels and developing new products has helped maintain the sales of pickled vegetables, with a notable increase in radish product sales by 38.35% [1][2]. - The gross margin slightly increased to 52.00% in Q2 2025, benefiting from lower raw material costs and price adjustments [2]. - The company is accelerating the introduction of new products, which is expected to drive revenue growth, with several new items already gaining popularity [2]. Financial Summary - The company expects a revenue growth of 2.98% year-on-year for 2025, with a net profit growth of 2.69%, leading to an EPS of 0.71 yuan [3][11]. - The current PE ratio is 18.89, and the target valuation is set at 23 times earnings [3]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 15.37 billion yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Trina Solar [6] Core Views - Trina Solar's revenue for H1 2025 was 31.06 billion, a year-on-year decline of 27.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.92 billion, down 654.5% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to continuous price drops in components and challenges in the photovoltaic industry, including supply-demand imbalances and intensified market competition [1][3] - The storage segment is expected to see growth in both volume and profit, with global battery storage system shipments projected to increase by over 50% in 2025. Trina Solar aims to achieve over 8GWh in shipments for the year, benefiting from a higher proportion of overseas orders and economies of scale [2][3] - The company is advancing in technology, with new battery component technologies achieving world record efficiencies. This positions Trina Solar to maintain its leading status in the photovoltaic component industry while diversifying its business ecosystem, enhancing its resilience against industry cyclicality [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, Trina Solar's revenue is projected to be 67.15 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 16.36%. The net profit is expected to be -3.97 billion, with an EPS of -1.82. The PE ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be -9, 94, and 17 respectively [5][3] - The company reported a significant drop in component shipments, with H1 2025 shipments exceeding 32GW, a slight decrease from 34GW in the previous year. Distributed system sales fell by 53% to approximately 1.5GW, while storage shipments remained stable at about 1.7GWh [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.024 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 0.76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders improved to a loss of 80 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. - The agricultural pesticide market is recovering, but pricing remains under pressure due to oversupply in raw material production. The company has initiated a "Progress Plan" aimed at improving profits and cash flow from 2024 to 2026, focusing on financial management, operational restructuring, and value innovation in niche markets [4]. - The company is enhancing its differentiated product line, which is expected to drive long-term growth. New products are being registered and launched globally as part of this strategy [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a sales figure of 2.091 billion USD in the first half of 2025, with a year-over-year sales volume increase of 4%, offsetting a 3% decline in prices. Adjusted gross profit was 620 million USD, up 11% year-over-year, with a gross margin increase to 29.7% from 26.5% [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was 310 million USD, reflecting a 23% year-over-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 14.8% [3]. - The financial forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 79 million, 103 million, and 176 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.03, 0.04, and 0.08 yuan [5][6]. Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Shalon, is a significant player in the domestic pesticide raw material production sector and became a global leader in non-patent pesticides after acquiring ADAMA Solutions in 2017 [7]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 16.262 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 15.196 billion yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China National Airlines [5][6]. Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 80.757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.806 billion yuan, reducing losses by 35.11% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The company turned a profit in Q2 with a net profit of 238 million yuan, following a loss of 2.044 billion yuan in Q1 [2]. - Passenger revenue decreased slightly, but the decline was within expectations, attributed to rising fuel costs and an increase in the proportion of international routes [3]. - The introduction of the "Self-Discipline Agreement for Air Passenger Transport" aims to promote high-quality development in the industry and stabilize ticket prices [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s passenger revenue for the first half of 2025 was 73.196 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.59 million yuan year-on-year [3]. - The unit cost of ASK (Available Seat Kilometer) excluding fuel increased to 0.304 yuan, while the unit fuel cost decreased from 0.158 yuan to 0.137 yuan, contributing to the profit recovery in Q2 [3]. - The company plans to introduce 47 aircraft and retire 18 in 2025, indicating cautious growth in fleet size [4]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.88 billion yuan, 6.31 billion yuan, and 7.93 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.11, 0.36, and 0.45 yuan [5][11].