2025 年 A 股 3 季度投资策略：慢牛行情远 未结束 居民资产入市空间巨大 低利率是当前存款搬家的主要推动者，中国资本市场长期熊长牛短的特征，使得居民对股票市场的参与度相对较低，过去两 年居民存款较快增长，在去年 924 行情之前并未明显入市，究其原因在于股票市场存在的种种问题影响了投资者的信心。 本轮行情的核心变量就是政策面重塑了大众对中国股票市场的信心。新"国九条"对资本市场制度建设提出了一系列举措。 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年 8 月 27 日 3 季度策略 专题报告 | | | 主要观点： 短期流动性推动是主因。利率持续下行背景下，随着房地产市场步入中期调整，居民投资渠道减少，同时，近几年实体经济 中可投资机会显著减少，居民存款的两大投向房地产和实体投资都处于下降状态，而 A 股市场历史上熊长牛短，行情多呈现 脉冲式特点，对居民存款整体吸引力仅仅限于脉冲行情阶段，难以长期维持。本次开始自去年 9.24 的行情，呈现出于不同于 以往的慢牛态势，市场持续时间较长，市场结构性机会较多，赚钱效应开始出现量变到质变的特点，尤其是短期利率下行带 来的银行理财 ...

Group 1 - The market's recognition of a slow bull market is gradually strengthening, with significant recent trading activity and increased inflow of external funds into the stock market [2][3] - The continuous decline in interest rates is enhancing residents' willingness to invest in the stock market, especially as many bank wealth management products mature, leading to a potential increase in stock market inflows [3] - Policy measures are maintaining a loose monetary environment and promoting consumption, which, combined with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, may improve the economic fundamentals in Q4 [3][4] Group 2 - The electronic and semiconductor industries are showing positive trends driven by new technologies such as AI, with increasing technology penetration in automotive electronics, new energy, IoT, big data, and AI [5][6] - The global semiconductor sales are projected to increase by 19.60% year-on-year by June 2025, with TSMC reporting a 25.77% year-on-year increase in July revenue, indicating strong industry demand [6] - The domestic semiconductor manufacturing and supporting industries are accelerating development, benefiting from government support through industrial policies and tax incentives [6] Group 3 - A-shares are expected to remain active, with the potential for accelerated rotation in the market [7][8] - The index is anticipated to gradually rise due to the dual push of declining risk-free returns and accelerated capital market reforms, although short-term market risk preferences may continue to fluctuate [8] - Four investment opportunities are highlighted: AI sector, non-bank financials, Hong Kong dividend stocks, and the "anti-involution" theme, which is expected to be a significant policy direction in the latter half of the year [9]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a structural bull phase, with large banks reaching new highs while smaller micro-cap stocks also perform well, indicating a mixed market environment rather than a traditional bull or bear market [1][2] - The combination strategy of stable growth in banks and high elasticity in micro-cap stocks is recommended for better returns and easier management, as it aligns with the current market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to increased liquidity, benefiting small-cap stocks that are more sensitive to liquidity changes, thus presenting numerous profit opportunities [2][3] - The banking sector's advantages are highlighted by its relatively high dividend yield, providing stable returns for investors, while long-term funds like insurance capital show a preference for bank stocks, supporting their long-term growth [2][3] Group 3 - The 中证2000增强ETF (SZ159552) has shown impressive performance, with a rise of over 60% since its inception, significantly outperforming the 沪深300 index and achieving a cumulative excess return of 26.17% [3][5] - The 银行ETF优选 (SH517900) tracks the bank AH index and employs a dynamic allocation strategy to achieve better returns, having outperformed the 中证银行全收益指数 since its launch [5]

二、大盘总算没让人失望，收盘算是光头阳线3316点，涨幅1.13%，距离缺口3319点一步之遥了。 成交额1.33万亿，放量1600多亿，还算勉强过得去。从盘面上看，大科技领涨，大消费在修复，银行有点拖后腿，整体状态还行。 接下来的预期，就是补缺口。补了缺口之后有两种可能：（1）冲击3400，然后回调；（2）回踩3300，然后开始震荡蓄势。到底走哪种，就看成交量了。因 为缺口上方压力挺大，1.3万亿的量能肯定不够，要是想冲3400，未来几天必须持续放量，形成攻击形态才有可能。 三、上证指数今天小幅高开后震荡走高，日线图收小阳线。 一、证监会决心"壮士断腕"！证监会王建军被查！ 指数跳空高开，回踩了3286点的位置后一路震荡上行，尾盘收在了3316点的近期高位。成功站上了趋势线的压力位3311点，再往上压力位在3350点。 得说，他第一次提出以投资者为本，打造一个真正为投资者服务的市场，还说会认真听取投资者的意见和建议，感同身受。这回应挺接地气的，和之前周五 的自我表扬完全不一样，也让很多股民更信服了。 不过，量化交易的问题不能不管。要是没有壮士断腕的决心，量化交易在股市里兴风作浪这么多年，收割了不少散户。所以 ...