东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 评（20241209） 中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作，会议提出 实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加 强超常规逆周期调节；要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需 求；推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市。 主要观点： 会议对 2025 年政策定调更加积极。会议对财政政策和货币政策表述相较此前 更加积极，财政政策表述由此前的"积极的财政政策"变为"更加积极的财 政政策"，货币政策表述由此前的"稳健的货币政策"变为"适度宽松的货币 政策"，新增加了"加强超常规逆周期调节"的提法，对经济支持力度明显加 强，托底经济的意图强烈。 将提振消费提到新的高度。在外部压力趋紧的大背景下，提振消费意义重大， 未来通过财政政策刺激消费力度将会明显增大，拉动经济的效果也将更加明 显，对居民端的收入改善预期将会更加明显，有利于经济触底反弹，有利于 资本市场信心恢复。中央政府有较大的举债空间和赤字空间。 行情有望进入强势阶段。市场在国庆之后进入震荡阶段，行情在政策 ...

Employment Data - In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment increased by 227,000, exceeding the expected 200,000 and the previous value of 36,000[3] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous 4.1%[3] Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains tight, with the job vacancy rate at 100.45% of the labor supply in October, indicating a stable demand-supply balance[5] - Labor participation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.5%, while the employment rate fell to 59.8%, primarily affecting individuals aged 45 and above[5] Sector Performance - Major employment gains in November were seen in healthcare (54,000), leisure and hospitality (53,000), and government (33,000), while retail saw a decline of 28,000 jobs[5] - Manufacturing employment showed a slight increase of 22,000, largely due to the end of a Boeing strike, but overall manufacturing jobs continue to decline[6] Economic Policy Outlook - The policy interest rate is likely to reach 4%, with potential rate cuts in December and possibly in Q2 and Q3 of next year[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain between 4.6% and 4.85%, with a cautious approach to further rate cuts as inflation stabilizes around 2.5% to 3%[9] Market Sentiment - The U.S. stock market is viewed as being in a bubble phase, with a bubble risk estimated at 35%[9] - The overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly positive, with expectations of continued market stability post-election[9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the implementation of more proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market, following the Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 9, which aims to maintain stability in both the real estate and stock markets [10] - The report suggests that the policies will continue to promote stabilization in the real estate market, with both supply-side optimization and demand-side stimulus expected to persist until price stabilization is achieved [10][11] - The focus of future policies will be on the effectiveness of implementation, with expectations for increased support from the central government to assist local governments in overcoming challenges related to housing and land management [12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry consists of 114 stocks with an average market capitalization of 14,490.22 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.49% increase [3][4] - The circulating market capitalization is 13,394.94 billion yuan, showing a 1.7% increase [5] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry is -23.63 [6] Policy Insights - The report highlights the need for more active fiscal and monetary policies to effectively mitigate risks in key areas, with specific measures aimed at revitalizing idle land and supporting affordable housing projects [11] - It notes that the current utilization of various financial support measures is low, indicating a need for more proactive implementation [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued attention to investment opportunities within the real estate sector, as the central government shows a commitment to maintaining market stability and implementing supportive policies [12]

Core Insights - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on December 9, 2023, set a more proactive tone for the 2025 economic policy, emphasizing a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," indicating a significant increase in economic support [2][3] - The focus on boosting consumption has been elevated, with expectations of increased fiscal policy measures to stimulate consumption, which is crucial for economic recovery and restoring confidence in the capital markets [2][3] Policy Outlook - The report anticipates a strong market phase driven by policy, fundamentals, and external factors, with a new phase of policy expectations likely to emerge, particularly benefiting the consumer sector [3] - The report suggests that the consumer sector is currently undervalued and may experience significant valuation recovery if supportive policies are implemented [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the consumer sector, which is expected to benefit from upcoming consumption policies, alongside maintaining a positive outlook on the technology sector [3]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting emphasized "more proactive macro policies" to comprehensively expand domestic demand and stabilize foreign trade and investment[2] - A shift towards "more proactive" fiscal policies and "moderately loose" monetary policies is expected to counter potential economic downturn pressures[2] - The meeting highlighted the need for "extraordinary" counter-cyclical adjustments, indicating new incremental policies may be introduced soon[2] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Focus - The fiscal policy's focus is shifting from traditional investment to significantly boosting consumption, with an emphasis on consumption subsidies[3] - Investment efficiency is prioritized, with expectations of a decline in traditional supply-side investments, aligning with high-quality development goals[3] - Future policies are anticipated to include measures to stimulate consumption, such as expanding subsidies from goods to services[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy stance has clearly shifted to "moderately loose," with expectations for more interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[3] - The last time a "moderately loose" monetary policy was explicitly stated was in 2009 and 2010, indicating a significant policy shift from the previous "stable" approach since 2011[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Risks include potential overseas inflation exceeding expectations and the possibility of an overseas economic recession[4]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 Brent 原油价格环比上月下跌，ESPO 原油现货价呈反弹趋势，中国原油现货 月度均价月环比上涨。截至 11 月 20 日，Brent 和 WTI 原油期货结算价分别 为 72.81 美元/桶和 68.75 美元/桶，环比上月下跌 1.99%和 2.57%。截至 11 月 21 日，WTI、Brent 原油现货价格分别为 68.75 美元/桶、72.81 美元/桶， 环比上月分别涨 0.09%、跌 0.34%。截至 11 月 20 日，ESPO 原油现货价格为 69.59 美元/桶，环比上月涨 0.49%。10 月，OPEC 原油现货价格为 74.45 美元 /桶，环比上涨 1.16%；中国原油现货月度均价（南海）为 65.47 美元/桶， 环比上涨 0.04%，中国原油现货月度均价（胜利）为 76.43 美元/桶，环比上 涨 3.58%。 OPEC 产量月环比回升，美国炼油厂可运营产能利用率回升，石油产品供应量 回落。10 月，OPEC 原油产量达 26535 千桶/天，环比上月上涨 466 千桶/天， 涨幅为 1.79% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [2][11]. Core Insights - Domestic thermal coal prices have decreased, while European thermal coal prices have increased. As of November 18, the price of Shanxi premium mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 839 CNY/ton, down 1.53% month-on-month. In contrast, the offshore price of Australian thermal coal was 140.00 USD/ton, down 4.76% month-on-month, while European prices rose by 2.50% to 123.00 USD/ton [11][12][24]. - The monthly import volume of thermal coal has significantly decreased, with October imports at 13.48 million tons, down 9.29% from the previous month. This decline is attributed to rising domestic shipping costs [12][34]. - Coal inventory at major ports has increased significantly, with a total of 14.52 million tons at Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian ports, up 19.62% month-on-month. Conversely, the inventory of the six major power generation groups decreased by 1.90% to 14.50 million tons [12][38][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of November 18, the price of Shanxi premium mixed thermal coal was 839 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.53% [11][20]. - The price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while Shanxi saw a decrease [18][24]. 2. Production - In October, the monthly production of coal from key state-owned mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showed mixed results, with Shanxi's production increasing by 0.49% to 53.59 million tons, while Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia saw declines [12][30]. 3. Imports - The total monthly import of coal and thermal coal reached 46.25 million tons in October, a year-on-year increase of 28.51%, but a month-on-month decrease of 2.82%. The thermal coal imports specifically were 13.48 million tons, up 11.53% year-on-year but down 9.29% month-on-month [34][45]. 4. Inventory - As of November 18, coal inventory at the three major ports increased by 19.62% month-on-month to 14.52 million tons, while the inventory of the six major power generation groups decreased by 1.90% to 14.50 million tons [38][44]. 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups decreased by 0.41% month-on-month to 809,300 tons, while total electricity generation in October was 731 billion kWh, down 8.89% month-on-month [45][51]. 6. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have risen significantly, with the CBCFI from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai reported at 33.70 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 24.35% [13][56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The average monthly price of Chinese crude oil has increased, while U.S. crude oil exports continue to rise. Brent crude prices have decreased month-on-month, while ESPO crude prices show a rebound trend [10][11]. - As of November 20, Brent and WTI crude futures settled at $72.81 per barrel and $68.75 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.99% and 2.57%, respectively [10][14]. - OPEC's crude oil production increased month-on-month, with October production reaching 26,535 thousand barrels per day, up by 466 thousand barrels per day, a rise of 1.79% [11][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Crude Oil Prices - Brent crude futures settled at $72.81 per barrel, down by $1.48 per barrel (1.99%) month-on-month. WTI crude futures settled at $68.75 per barrel, down by $1.81 per barrel (2.57%) month-on-month [10][14]. - As of November 21, WTI and Brent crude spot prices were $68.75 per barrel and $72.81 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.09% and a decrease of 0.34% month-on-month, respectively [10][11]. 2. Supply and Demand - OPEC's crude oil production increased in October, reaching 26,535 thousand barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 466 thousand barrels per day (1.79%) [11][30]. - U.S. refinery capacity utilization rose to 90.20%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points month-on-month [11][36]. 3. Exports - U.S. crude oil exports averaged 4,072.50 thousand barrels per day in October, an increase of 155.25 thousand barrels per day (3.96%) month-on-month [11][62]. - Chinese crude oil exports decreased to 197,608.68 tons, down by 18.76% month-on-month [11][62]. 4. Inventory - As of November 15, total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories decreased to 1,633,001 thousand barrels, a decline of 9,501 thousand barrels (0.58%) month-on-month [46][48]. - U.S. crude oil inventories increased to 819,482 thousand barrels, up by 8,816 thousand barrels (1.09%) month-on-month [46][48].

Core Insights - The overall cash dividend ratio of central enterprise construction leaders has remained stable at around 17% from 2014 to 2023, with a slight upward trend observed in recent years [2][25] - The dividend ratio for major central enterprise construction companies has generally increased, with China State Construction rising from 18.44% in 2018 to 20.82% in 2023, and China Communications Construction increasing from 18.04% in 2020 to 20% in 2023 [3][26] - The company charters of central enterprise construction leaders stipulate minimum dividend ratios, with most companies requiring a cumulative cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% over any three consecutive years [4][27] Dividend Trends - The cash dividend ratio for central enterprise construction leaders has shown fluctuations, with a decrease from 17.63% in 2014 to 15.83% in 2019, followed by an increase to 17.23% in 2023 [2][25] - Companies like China Railway Construction and China Chemical have also seen increases in their dividend ratios, with China Railway Construction rising from 13.53% in 2021 to 18.21% in 2023 [3][26] - The dividend policies of these companies reflect a commitment to shareholder returns, with some companies implementing mid-year dividends [4][27] Quality Development and Market Management - High-quality development is a key focus for central enterprise construction leaders, emphasizing project quality and cash flow management rather than rapid growth [4][28] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has included market value management in its assessments, encouraging companies to align stock prices with shareholder returns [4][28] - The positive impact of these strategies is expected to enhance dividend ratios in the current industry environment [4][28] Dividend Yields - The dividend yields of central enterprise construction leaders are considered favorable, with China State Construction at 4.51%, China Railway Construction at 3.68%, and China Chemical at 2.17% [11][29] - The resilience of these companies in the face of market challenges, along with supportive government policies, is likely to contribute to stable dividend growth [11][31] Investment Recommendations - In the context of pursuing high-quality development and effective market management, central enterprise construction companies are expected to benefit from favorable policies and accelerated overseas expansion [11][31] - Companies such as China Communications Construction and China State Construction are recommended for investment, with a focus on their potential for sustained dividend growth [11][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the expectation of continued improvement in dividend ratios for state-owned construction enterprises [5][10]. Core Insights - The overall cash dividend ratio of leading state-owned construction enterprises has remained stable at around 17% over the past decade, with a slight upward trend observed from 2020 to 2023 [1][9]. - Most listed state-owned construction companies have increased their dividend ratios, with notable improvements from companies like China State Construction and China Communications Construction [2][9]. - The company charters of these enterprises stipulate minimum dividend payout ratios, ensuring shareholder returns [3][9]. - High-quality development and market capitalization management are positively influencing the increase in dividend ratios among these companies [4][10]. Summary by Sections Dividend Ratios - The cash dividend ratio for state-owned construction enterprises has shown fluctuations, with a decrease from 17.63% in 2014 to 15.83% in 2019, followed by an increase to 17.23% in 2023 [1][9]. - Specific companies like China State Construction have seen their dividend ratio rise from 18.44% in 2018 to 20.82% in 2023 [2]. Company Policies - Company charters require minimum dividend payouts, with China State Construction mandating at least 15% of distributable profits, while others like China Communications Construction and China Electric Power require at least 10% [3]. Development Strategies - The focus on high-quality development and market capitalization management is driving a shift towards quality over quantity in project selection, which is expected to enhance cash flow and reduce inefficient capital use [4][10]. - The implementation of supportive policies, such as local government debt resolution and long-term special bonds, is anticipated to facilitate a return to stable growth for these enterprises [9].