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海天转债:区域水务运营龙头
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-06 06:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Haitian Convertible Bond (113700.SH) was available for online subscription on February 5, 2026, with a total issuance scale of 801 million yuan. After deducting issuance fees, the net proceeds will be used for several projects and to supplement working capital [2][3]. - The current bond floor valuation is 113.5 yuan, with a YTM of 2.16%. The conversion parity is 102 yuan, and the parity premium rate is -2.03%. The bond floor provides good protection [2][12]. - The terms of the convertible bond are standard, and the total equity dilution rate is 12.17%, exerting a certain dilution pressure on the equity [2][13]. - It is estimated that the listing price of the Haitian Convertible Bond on the first trading day will range from 125.75 to 139.83 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of around 30% [2][15]. - Since 2020, the revenue of Haitian Water Group Co., Ltd. has been growing steadily, with a compound growth rate of 15.60% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.519 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.95%. Meanwhile, the net profit attributable to the parent company slightly decreased, with a compound growth rate of 14.92% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, it reached 305 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 25.97% [2][17]. - The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin slightly declined, while the sales expense ratio, financial expense ratio, and management expense ratio decreased [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Basic Information - The issuance and subscription schedule of the Haitian Convertible Bond is from February 3 to February 9, 2026, including steps such as publishing announcements, online roadshows, and determining the allotment results [9]. - The convertible bond has a code of 113700.SH, a face value of 100 yuan, a term of 6 years, and a rating of AA/AA. The initial conversion price is 12.52 yuan per share, and the conversion period is from August 11, 2026, to February 4, 2032 [10]. - The proceeds from the issuance will be used for projects like the digital water supply and efficiency improvement project in Jianyang and the expansion project of Jiajiang Urban Domestic Sewage Treatment Plant, with a total of 801 million yuan [11]. - The bond - related indicators show a pure bond value of 113.5 yuan, a pure bond premium rate of -11.89%, and a pure bond YTM of 2.16%. The equity - related indicators show a conversion parity of 102.08 yuan and a parity premium rate of -2.03% [11][12]. 3.2 Investment Subscription Suggestion - By referring to comparable targets and the empirical model of the conversion premium rate on the first listing day, considering the good bond floor protection, rating, and scale of the Haitian Convertible Bond, it is expected that the conversion premium rate on the first listing day will be around 30%, and the corresponding listing price will range from 125.75 to 139.83 yuan [14][15]. - The original shareholders' priority allotment ratio is 100.00%, and the online winning rate is 0.0009% [16]. 3.3 Positive Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Data Analysis - The company has a diversified industrial system in the environmental protection industry. Since 2020, its revenue has grown steadily, and the net profit attributable to the parent company has also increased [16][17]. - The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin have fluctuated, and the sales expense ratio, financial expense ratio, and management expense ratio have decreased. The overall profitability remains at a high level but fluctuates periodically [20][27]. - The company's operating revenue mainly comes from the sewage treatment business, and the product structure changes annually. The revenue from the waste - to - energy business has been increasing year by year [23]. 3.3.2 Company Highlights - The company is an early private water service enterprise in the field of urban water supply and drainage and water environment comprehensive treatment. It has a mature "investment - construction - operation integration" model and certain competitive advantages in project acquisition, operation management, and cost control [32].
格局落定,价值归真:从周期波动走向技术溢价
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-06 06:11
证券分析师:张良卫 执业证书编号:S0600516070001 联系电话:021-60197988 二零二六年二月六日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要:从传统周期到AI驱动的技术溢价与高成长性 证券研究报告 格局落定,价值归真:从周期波动走向技术溢价 建议关注:闪迪(SNDK.O)、SK 海力士(000660.KS)、三星电子(005930.KS)、美光科技(MU.O)。 风险提示:下游AI资本开支(CAPEX)不及预期风险; 存储原厂产能扩张失控导致供需格局恶化风险;新技术研发进度或良率爬坡不及预期风 险。 2 ➢ 增长逻辑重构:AI 带来的不是反弹,而是指数级增长的新需求,存储不再仅仅跟随宏观经济进行简单的库存周期波动,而是成为了AI算力的 决定性瓶颈(存力决定算力的效率)。 ➢ 训练端(Scaling Laws 驱动): 模型参数量呈线性增长(如GPT-3到GPT-4增幅超9倍),直接拉动HBM(容纳参数)和SSD(存Checkpoint) 的容量需求呈指数级爆发 。 ➢ 推理端(商业化落地驱动): 随着RAG(检索增强生成)和超长上下文(Long Context)的应用,KV Cache( ...
东吴证券晨会纪要2026-02-06-20260206
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-06 01:43
证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-06 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260204:商品流动性冲击之后,哪些品种被"错杀"? 大宗商品市场每一轮流动性冲击和恐慌情绪急跌,在完成"清洗"高杠 杆、高风偏的超涨品种之外,部分依托于供需产业链改善逻辑的品种却也 被流动性风险"误伤",在风险中心已渐进平息之后,被错杀和被误伤的 商品品种和板块,或再度回归各自基本面定价逻辑,迎来相比轮动式上涨 阶段更好的介入时机。 金融产品深度报告 20260203:黄金 ETF,2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月展望 事件驱动盘点: 资产配置价值:宏观数据与政策预期在月内反复切换, 降息预期对黄金资产配置价值形成阶段性支撑,但政策不确定性上升亦 带来短期扰动。 货币价值:美元信用变化主导黄金货币属性定价,美元 指数与储备结构调整对金价形成阶段性影响,货币价值在支撑与压制之 间反复博弈。 避险价值:多区域地缘与政治风险交织抬升市场不确定 性,避险需求呈现事件驱动、脉冲式释放特征,为金价提供阶段性支撑。 商品价值:央行购金与投资端需求预期保持稳 ...
高测股份:2025年业绩预告点评Q4盈利同环比逐步改善,有望受益于太空光伏、机器人产业化-20260206
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-05 10:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in Q4 earnings, benefiting from advancements in space photovoltaic and robotics industrialization [1] - The company has achieved a significant milestone by validating the cutting of 50μm ultra-thin silicon wafers, positioning itself to benefit from cutting-edge applications in the photovoltaic sector [8] - The company is entering the robotics market, leveraging its core technology in grinding equipment and tungsten wire materials, which may open up a new growth trajectory [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,184 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 73.19%. However, a decline is expected in 2024 and 2025, with revenues of 4,474 million yuan and 3,817 million yuan, respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,461.12 million yuan in 2023, but is expected to decline to -44.23 million yuan in 2024 and -40.23 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 127.28 million yuan in 2026 and 240.55 million yuan in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.76 yuan in 2023, dropping to -0.05 yuan in 2024 and 2025, and recovering to 0.15 yuan in 2026 and 0.29 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the stock is 14.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 11,797 million yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 8.20, with projections of -270.86 in 2024 and -297.77 in 2025, before stabilizing at 94.12 in 2026 and 49.80 in 2027 [1][9] - The company has a net asset value per share of 4.70 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.59% [6]
奇瑞汽车:深耕出海,多品牌协同拓展增长边界-20260206
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-05 10:24
证券研究报告·海外公司深度·汽车(HS) 奇瑞汽车(09973.HK) 深耕出海,多品牌协同拓展增长边界 2026 年 02 月 05 日 买入(首次) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 163,205 | 269,897 | 303,208 | 329,400 | 372,250 | | 同比(%) | 76.21 | 65.37 | 12.34 | 8.64 | 13.01 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 11,953 | 14,135 | 18,410 | 21,076 | 25,375 | | 同比(%) | 90.76 | 18.25 | 30.25 | 14.48 | 20.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄(元/股) | 2.06 | 2.43 | 3.17 | 3.63 | 4.37 | | P/E(现价&最新摊薄) | 12.26 | 10.37 | 7.96 | 6.95 | 5.77 | [T ...
奇瑞汽车(09973):深耕出海,多品牌协同拓展增长边界
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-05 09:38
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Chery Automobile (09973.HK) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Chery Automobile is transitioning towards globalization and intelligence, with a focus on multiple brands to meet diverse market demands. The company has established a clear equity structure involving state-owned assets, strategic investors, and management, which enhances operational efficiency and strategic alignment [8][13]. - The financial outlook is positive, with significant revenue growth driven by the expansion of new energy vehicles and increasing overseas sales. The report forecasts a substantial increase in net profit from 11.95 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.38 billion yuan by 2027 [1][17]. - Chery's brand strategy includes five distinct brands: Chery, Jetour, Exeed, iCAR, and Zhijie, each targeting different market segments and customer needs [38][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Information - Chery Automobile was founded in 1997 and has evolved from a local manufacturer to a global technology-driven automotive enterprise. The company has a clear equity structure that balances state ownership, strategic investments, and management control [13][14]. - The company has seen rapid revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, primarily due to the increasing contribution of new energy vehicles and sustained overseas revenue growth [17][18]. 2. Existing Brand System - Chery's main brand targets the mainstream market with a focus on high cost-performance and diverse powertrain options. Jetour emphasizes family travel and off-road capabilities, while Exeed targets high-end users. iCAR is aimed at younger consumers with a focus on personalization, and Zhijie leverages collaboration with Huawei for smart experiences [38][39]. 3. Export Strategy - Chery has a well-established export strategy that began in developing markets and is now expanding into key markets like Russia and Europe. The company has adapted its product offerings and distribution channels to suit local market conditions [55][60]. - The Tiggo series is central to Chery's product strategy, with a focus on multiple brands and energy types to cater to different regional markets [65]. 4. Technological Foundation - Chery is enhancing its platform-based manufacturing capabilities and pursuing a dual-track strategy of self-research and collaboration with leading technology partners. The company aims to consolidate its R&D efforts to improve efficiency and innovation [8][34]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The report projects Chery's net profit to reach 18.41 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers. The strong momentum in new energy development and solid export positioning justify a higher valuation for the company [1][17].
高测股份(688556):2025年业绩预告点评:Q4盈利同环比逐步改善,有望受益于太空光伏、机器人产业化
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-05 09:11
证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 高测股份(688556) 2025 年业绩预告点评: Q4 盈利同环比逐步 改善,有望受益于太空光伏&机器人产业化 执业证书:S0600515110002 021-60199784 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李文意 执业证书:S0600524080005 liwenyi@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -17% 0% 17% 34% 51% 68% 85% 102% 119% 136% 153% 2025/2/5 2025/6/6 2025/10/5 2026/2/3 高测股份 沪深300 市场数据 买入(维持) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6,184 | 4,474 | 3,817 | 3,957 | 4,402 | | 同比(%) | 73.19 | (27.65) | (14.68) | 3.65 | 11.24 | | 归母净利润( ...
东吴证券晨会纪要2026-02-05-20260205
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-05 01:46
证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-05 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260204:商品流动性冲击之后,哪些品种被"错杀"? 大宗商品市场每一轮流动性冲击和恐慌情绪急跌,在完成"清洗"高杠 杆、高风偏的超涨品种之外,部分依托于供需产业链改善逻辑的品种却也 被流动性风险"误伤",在风险中心已渐进平息之后,被错杀和被误伤的 商品品种和板块,或再度回归各自基本面定价逻辑,迎来相比轮动式上涨 阶段更好的介入时机。 金融产品深度报告 20260203:黄金 ETF,2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月展望 事件驱动盘点: 资产配置价值:宏观数据与政策预期在月内反复切换, 降息预期对黄金资产配置价值形成阶段性支撑,但政策不确定性上升亦 带来短期扰动。 货币价值:美元信用变化主导黄金货币属性定价,美元 指数与储备结构调整对金价形成阶段性影响,货币价值在支撑与压制之 间反复博弈。 避险价值:多区域地缘与政治风险交织抬升市场不确定 性,避险需求呈现事件驱动、脉冲式释放特征,为金价提供阶段性支撑。 商品价值:央行购金与投资端需求预期保持稳 ...
AI智能汽车2月投资策略:北美L4或松绑,第三方智驾供应商多点开花,看好智能化
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-04 13:13
Core Conclusions - The report highlights a potential loosening of regulations for L4 commercialization in North America, with discussions to increase the annual deployment limit of vehicles without traditional controls from 2,500 to 90,000 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the outcomes of the U.S. hearings and the potential unification of federal and state regulations, as well as the initial operational safety and reliability of Tesla's no-safety-driver Robotaxi service launched in Austin [2][11] - Investment recommendations favor B-end software companies over C-end hardware companies, with specific stock picks in both H-shares and A-shares [2] AI Smart Car Investment Framework - The report outlines a spiral upward iteration of hardware and software, indicating that each significant capability upgrade represents a paradigm shift in thinking [7] - The timeline for L1 to L4 development is projected, with significant advancements expected by 2030, particularly in the areas of E/E architecture upgrades and high-computing chips [8][10] L4 RoboX Monthly Tracking - Tesla's Robotaxi business is rapidly advancing, particularly in Austin, with plans for expansion into other regions like California and New York [22] - The report details the growth of Tesla's Robotaxi fleet, with a notable increase in operational area from 20 square miles to 243 square miles in Austin [24] - Comparatively, Waymo's operational area expansion is characterized by a more gradual approach, with a broader geographic footprint but less rapid growth in individual regions [25] L2-L3 Smartization C-end Monthly Tracking - The report forecasts a total retail sales volume of 22 million vehicles in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [39] - It provides detailed projections for passenger car sales, including a breakdown of domestic and new energy vehicle sales, with expected penetration rates for new energy vehicles reaching 60% by 2026 [39][41] Smartization Supply Chain Tracking - The report identifies key players in the smart vehicle supply chain, including B-end unmanned vehicle manufacturers and core upstream suppliers such as chip manufacturers and sensor providers [2] - It emphasizes the importance of collaboration between technology providers and vehicle manufacturers to enhance the overall smart vehicle ecosystem [20]
华泰证券:拟发行可转债,资金用于支持境外业务发展-20260204
Soochow Securities· 2026-02-04 12:24
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to issue zero-coupon convertible bonds amounting to 10 billion yuan, primarily to support the development of its overseas business and supplement other operating funds [8] - The issuance is expected to have a significant dilution effect on H shares but minimal impact on A shares, with an initial conversion price set at 19.7 HKD per H share, representing a 7% premium over the previous trading day [8] - The company’s leverage ratio is projected to increase slightly before the conversion of the bonds but is expected to decrease post-conversion, indicating a manageable impact on overall leverage [8] - The financing is anticipated to bolster the company's international business, which has shown a revenue contribution of 14% in the first half of 2025, with plans to expand into mature and emerging markets [8] - The regulatory environment is supportive of domestic brokers expanding overseas, which aligns with the company's strategic goals [8] - The long-term outlook for the securities industry remains positive, driven by capital market reforms and a recovering macroeconomic environment, which is expected to enhance market investment enthusiasm [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 36.58 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 42.34 billion yuan by 2027, with a notable decline in 2025 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 12.75 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.99 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant increase in 2025 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.41 yuan in 2023 to 2.32 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15.41 in 2023 to 9.48 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [1]