证券研究报告 2025年6月大类资产配置展望 微澜蓄势，整装待发 证券分析师 ：孙婷 执业证书编号：S0600524120001 联系邮箱：sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2025年6月4日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ✓ 2025年6月大类资产配置展望 ✓ A股和港股——等待时空条件的变化： ✓ 美股和黄金——持续产生对冲效应： ✓ 国债和美债——震荡偏强格局： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 ➢ 市场整体趋势：预计6月A股市场将呈现震荡调整格局，短期内调整空间有限但震荡时间可能较长；港股市场整体节奏与A股保持一致， 但筹码结构相对健康，表现可能优于A股，呈现宽幅震荡走势。 ➢ 风格与板块表现：6月上旬大盘红利风格相对占优，成长板块可能相对较弱；6月中旬开始，红利风格可能进入相对逆风期，成长风格 有望获得相对收益的优势，但需关注海内外事件驱动因素对风格变化的提前影响。 ➢ 内外部因素影响：国内短期内进一步出台利好政策的可能 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250604 负 Carry 困境：海外机构如何破局—低利率 时代系列（五） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 负 carry 冲击进行时：负 carry 的成因通常源于资产负债久期错配与利 率波动：当负债端成本因短期利率抬升或刚性兑付压力上升，而资产端 因长期债券收益率被锁定或下行时，机构面临收益倒挂风险。海外资管 机构的历史经验显示，负 carry 风险集中爆发于特定利率周期，典型触 发场景通常在长期低利率环境后，经历利率快速上行周期。例如，2022 年美联储加息后，美国银行业因前期拉长债券久期，导致资产端收益率 被锁定于历史低位，而负债端存款利率随市场利率快速攀升，形成由于 负债端成本上行而造成的"利率上行+负 carry"压力。日本方面，自 1990 年代经济泡沫破灭后进入低增长、低通胀周期，政策利率持续下行。2016 年日本央行实施负利率政策后，10 年期日本国债收益率与存款利率出 现倒挂，形成由于资产端收益下行而造成的"利率下行+负 carry"环境。 以国内视角来看，当前我国面临与发达经济体历史情形相似的挑战 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250604 结构化融资再观察：城投 ABS 市场回顾与前 瞻（市场篇） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 2025 年 06 月 04 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《结构化融资再观察：城投 ABS 市场 回顾与前瞻（政策篇）》 2025-06-03 《周观：交易主线缺位，债市难逃脱 震荡行情（2025 年第 21 期）》 ◼ 存量城投 ABS 券种结构及票面利率分布：1）从债券种类来看，当前城 投 ABS 市场呈现以企业 ABS 产品为主导，少量 ABN 产品补充的格局， 表明证监会主管的 ABS 因其备案制的高效性、基础资产类型的灵活性， 成为城投平台资产证券化融资的主流方式，而交易商协会主管的 ABN 因依托银行间市场发行并采用注册制管理，且其流动性受限于银行间市 场投资者结构，非标属性较强，因此在当下城投平台融资端严监管 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - On June 4, Ping An announced the issuance of HKD 11.765 billion convertible bonds to support capital needs and strategic development in healthcare and elderly care [2] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance the company's capital strength at a lower cost, optimizing the capital structure and supporting business development [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be CNY 135.2 billion, CNY 154.4 billion, and CNY 177.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue (CNY million) is projected to be 913,789 in 2023, 1,028,925 in 2024, and expected to grow to 1,215,854 by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.9% from 2024 to 2027 [7][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (CNY million) is forecasted to decline by 22.8% in 2023, followed by a significant recovery of 47.8% in 2024, and steady growth of 6.8%, 14.2%, and 14.6% in the subsequent years [7][9] - The estimated PEV for 2025 is 0.65x, indicating that the current market valuation remains low [7][9] Market Data - The closing price of Ping An is CNY 53.85, with a market capitalization of CNY 980.62 billion [5] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 1.04, and the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 7.75 for 2024 [5][9] Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is 163.7%, and the comprehensive solvency ratio is 227.9%, reflecting a significant increase from the beginning of the year [7]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250604 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20250530 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 06 月 04 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20250430》 2025-05-06 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 5 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 18.37%，年化波 动率为 8.79%，信息比率为 2.09，月度胜率为 77.94%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07%。 ◼ 5 月份"日与 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - On June 4, Ping An announced plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in H-share convertible bonds to support capital needs and strategic development in healthcare and elderly care [2] - The issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance the group's capital strength at a lower cost, optimizing the capital structure and supporting business development [7] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be CNY 135.2 billion, CNY 154.4 billion, and CNY 177.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue forecast for 2023 is CNY 913.789 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at CNY 85.665 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.8% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at CNY 4.70, with a projected increase to CNY 6.95 in 2024 [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is expected to be 7.25, indicating a relatively low valuation [9] Market Data - The closing price of Ping An is CNY 53.85, with a market capitalization of CNY 980.621 billion [5] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 1.04, suggesting the stock is trading at a slight premium to its book value [5] - The one-year price range for the stock is between CNY 40.22 and CNY 62.80 [5] Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core solvency ratio for Ping An Life is 163.7%, and the comprehensive solvency ratio is 227.9%, showing significant improvement [7] - The company plans to increase its capital by CNY 20 billion, which is expected to further enhance its capital adequacy [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company announced on June 4 that it plans to issue HKD 11.765 billion in H-share convertible bonds to support its capital needs and strategic development in healthcare and elderly care [2][7] - The issuance of the convertible bonds is expected to enhance the company's capital strength at a lower cost, following a previous USD 3.5 billion convertible bond issuance completed in July 2024 [7] - The company's solvency ratios have improved significantly, with core and comprehensive solvency ratios at 163.7% and 227.9% respectively as of Q1 2025, reflecting a 47 percentage point and 39 percentage point increase from the beginning of the year [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach CNY 1,028,925 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound to CNY 126,607 million in 2024, representing a 47.8% increase year-on-year [7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is CNY 7.42, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.25 [9] - The company's price-to-embedded value (PEV) is forecasted to be 0.65x in 2025, indicating it is still undervalued [7][9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is CNY 53.85, with a market capitalization of CNY 980,621.13 million [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.04 and a net asset value per share of CNY 51.60 [5][6] Capital Structure - The convertible bonds will be zero-coupon bonds maturing in 2030, with an initial conversion price of HKD 55.02, representing an 18.45% premium over the closing price on June 3 [7] - The issuance will utilize 28.7% of the general authorization limit approved by the shareholders [7]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250604 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 刘静恒 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250530 2025 年 06 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 2025 年 6 月组合最新持仓明细： 序号 股票代码 股票简称 申万一级行业 建仓日期 权重 1 601668.SH 中国建筑 建筑装饰 2025/6/3 3.33% 2 601328.SH 交通银行 银行 2025/6/3 3.33% 3 000708.SZ 中信特钢 钢铁 2025/6/3 3.33% 4 603833.SH 欧派家居 轻工制造 2025/6/3 3.33% 5 000651.SZ 格力电器 家用电器 2025/6/3 3.33% 6 000157.SZ 中联重科 机械设备 2025/6/3 3.33% 7 600039.SH 四川路桥 建筑装饰 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·半导体 英伟达（NVDA） FY2026 一季报点评：产品切换超预期，政策 影响有望在 FY26Q2 后消除 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 60,922 | 130,497 | 205,531 | 252,213 | 289,804 | | 同比(%) | 125.85 | 114.20 | 57.50 | 22.71 | 14.90 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 29,760 | 72,880 | 104,835 | 136,413 | 154,780 | | 同比(%) | 581.32 | 144.89 | 43.85 | 30.12 | 13.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.22 | 2.99 | 4.30 | 5.59 | 6.34 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 112.64 | 45.99 | 31.97 ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250604 "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩效月报 20250530 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 2025 年 06 月 04 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子绩 效月报 20250430》 2025-05-06 《成交量对动量因子的修正：日与夜 之殊途同归》 2022-08-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ "日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子多空对冲绩效（全市场）：2014 年 2 月至 2025 年 5 月，"日与夜的殊途同归"新动量因子在全体 A 股（剔 除北交所股票）中，10 分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 18.37%，年化波 动率为 8.79%，信息比率为 2.09，月度胜率为 77.94%，月度最大回撤率 为 9.07%。 ◼ 5 月份"日与 ...