M N 30 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JOYY Inc (YY US) Looking beyond 2Q24E’s soft seasonality Target Price US$47.00 JOYY delivered an upbeat 1Q24, but revenue guidance for 2Q24E slightly (Previous TP US$50.50) missed consensus by 2%. Given soft seasonality of livestreaming, we Up/Downside 50.0% expect total revenue +1.2% YoY in 2Q24E, with adj. net profit at US$50mn. Current Price US$31.33 We estimate Bigo’s ramp-up of ads would partly offset livestreaming soft ...

M N 29 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Baozun (BZUN US) A solid start with steady transition year Target Price US$4.93 Baozun’s 1Q24 results were better-than-feared, in which revenue +5% YoY Up/Downside 85.3% (4% above consensus) and bottom line came in at -RMB15mn (vs. Current Price US$2.66 consensus of -RMB45mn). Ecommerce segment achieved positive OCF for the first time since 2019. Despite macro uncertainty, we expect BEC to China Entertainment bottom out in 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Naura Technology (002371 CH) with an unchanged target price (TP) of RMB405, indicating a potential upside of 32.8% from the current price of RMB304.98 [4][5]. Core Insights - Naura Technology is positioned as a key beneficiary of the semiconductor localization trend in China, driven by significant capital expenditure (capex) expansion from downstream clients and the launch of the "Big Fund III" with a total of US$47.5 billion [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve robust revenue growth, with new orders signed in 2023 amounting to RMB30 billion, of which over 70% are for semiconductor equipment [2][3]. - Revenue growth projections include a 40% increase in 2024, supported by order wins in critical product areas such as CCP, CVD, and cleansers [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB22,079 million in FY23A to RMB30,856 million in FY24E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.7% [3][12]. - Gross margin is expected to decline slightly to 39.8% in FY24E but is projected to recover to 42.3% by FY26E [3][10]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB3,899.1 million in FY23A to RMB5,527.3 million in FY24E, representing a growth of 41.8% [3][10]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises gross profit margin forecasts upward by 1.9 percentage points for FY24E and 3.9 percentage points for FY25E, due to a larger revenue contribution from advanced equipment [2][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from RMB10.41 in FY24E to RMB19.74 in FY26E, indicating strong profitability growth [10][12]. Market Context - The geopolitical landscape has prompted major economies to invest heavily in domestic chip fabrication capabilities, which is expected to benefit companies like Naura Technology [2][3]. - The "Big Fund III" aims to enhance self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on advanced materials and AI-related areas, further supporting Naura's growth trajectory [2][8].

2024 年 5 月 29 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 诺拉科技 （ 002371 CH ） 半导体国产化的主要受益者 此外, 我们认为公司可能是最近在中国推出的 “Big Fund III ” (475 亿美元) 的受益者之一。 Naura 目前是我们在半本地化主题下的最爱。重申对 Naura （ 002371 CH ） 的买入评级 目标价 RMB405.00 ， TP 不变为 405 元。 涨 / 跌 32.8%  地缘政治紧张局势促使全球主要经济体追求弹性而不是效率，导致大量投资以加强国 CurrentPrice RMB304.98 内芯片制造能力。最近在中国成立的 “Big Fd III ” （ 475 亿美元 ） 是该系列迄今为止 最大的阶段，注册资本为 3440 亿元人民币 （ 而第一 / 第二阶段 ： 1390 亿元 / 2000 中国半 亿元 ） 。第三阶段强调了中国政府在地缘政治紧张局势升级的情况下实现半自给自足 杨莉莉博士 的努力。以前的阶段集中在芯片制造，设备，材料等。， 我们预计第三阶段将有类似 (852) 3916 3716 的投资兴趣，以及对人工智能相关 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical with a revised target price of HK$8.51, up from HK$7.76, indicating a potential upside of 21.0% from the current price of HK$7.03 [2][4]. Core Insights - CSPC reported strong double-digit growth in 1Q24, with revenue of RMB8.98 billion, representing an 11.5% year-over-year increase and an 18.4% quarter-over-quarter increase. The attributable net profit was RMB1.61 billion, up 12.9% YoY and 17.0% QoQ [2]. - The gross profit margin in 1Q24 increased to 72.3%, up from 68.5% in 1Q23, primarily due to a higher proportion of revenue from finished drugs [2]. - Sales of finished drugs grew 17.7% YoY to RMB7.56 billion, driven by strong performance in CNS products (+27.4% YoY), oncology products (+11.6% YoY), anti-infection drugs (+9.8% YoY), and cardiovascular drugs (+22.3% YoY) [2]. - CSPC expects new products to significantly contribute to revenue, with management forecasting RMB3.5-3.6 billion from new products in 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, CSPC's revenue is projected to reach RMB35.065 billion, reflecting an 11.5% YoY growth, while attributable net profit is expected to be RMB6.867 billion, a 13.1% increase YoY [3][8]. - The earnings summary indicates a consistent growth trajectory, with revenue and net profit forecasts for FY25E at RMB38.970 billion and RMB7.516 billion, respectively [3][8]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a net gearing ratio projected to improve from (37.3%) in FY23A to (51.2%) in FY26E [3]. Product Development and Pipeline - CSPC has seven new NDAs under review, including significant products like PD-1 and omalizumab, which are expected to enhance the company's product portfolio [2]. - The company is actively pursuing new indications and has completed enrollment for Phase 3 studies for several products, including TG103 for obesity and semaglutide for diabetes [2]. Market Performance - CSPC's market capitalization stands at HK$83.78 billion, with an average turnover of HK$273.1 million over the past three months [3]. - The stock has shown a 1-month performance of +6.5% and a 3-month performance of +15.2% [3].

\ \\\\\\\\\\ 2024 年 5 月 23 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 半导体 英伟达有望保持长期增长 英伟达于 5 月 22 日公布 2025 财年一季度财报。公司本季度收入为 260 亿美 中国 半导体 行业 元，同比增长 262%，环比增长 17.8%（上季度环比增长 22.0%），较彭博一 致预期的 247 亿美元高出5.5%。公司数据中心收入持续增长，本季度达到 226 杨天薇, Ph.D 亿美元，同比增长 426.7%，环比增长 22.6%（上季度环比增长 26.8%）。 (852) 3916 3716 lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk 管理层预计二季度收入约 280 亿美元，同比增长107.3%，环比增长 7.5%。该 指引比彭博一致预期的 268 亿美元高出 4.4%。英伟达股价于盘后交易时段上 张元圣 (852) 3761 8727 涨，涨幅超过5%，突破1,000美元大关。 kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk 公司本季度 GAAP毛利率为 78.4%，与上季度的 76.0% 和去年同期的 64.6% 过往报告： 相比，实现稳步增长。管理层预 ...

2024 年 5 月 27 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Atour 生活方式 (ATAT US) 在强劲的零售销售的支持下 ， 提出了指导意见 酒店板块在 2Q24 QTD （ 节后休闲需求疲软，业务恢复缓慢 ） 一直承压，因此，前景仍偏 目标价 27.72 美元 保守。然而，Ator 的零售业务表现良好，足以抵消这种拖累。因此，随着零售销售增长目标 （ 以前的 TP 为 23.68 美元 ） 的健康升级，我们维持买入并将 TP 提高至 27.72 美元，基于 23 倍的 FY24E 市盈率 （ 从 涨 / 跌 57.6% 20 倍开始 ），考虑到 29% 的销售额 / 31% 的调整，这仍然不高。23 - 26E 财年净利润复合 现价 17.59 美元中国非必需消费品 年增长率。 沃尔特 · 吴  2Q24E 前景仍然保守。管理层对酒店需求仍然高度谨慎，因为宏观不确定性 （ 假期后 (852) 3761 8776 和周末订单与去年相比已经是一周 ），他们仍然预计 2Q24E 的 RevPAR 可能同比下降 。另一方面，Ator 仍然非常努力地通过增加更多的企业客户和在周末捕捉更多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 93.8% from the current price of $8.77 to a target price of $17.00 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 decreased by 4% year-over-year to $395 million, aligning with consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net income also fell by 4% to $107 million, exceeding consensus estimates by 24% [2]. - Advertising revenue showed a mixed performance, with a 5% decline year-over-year to $339 million, primarily due to pressure in the cosmetics and beauty verticals. However, domestic beauty brands saw over 50% growth in advertising revenue [2][3]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY24-26 down by 2% to reflect the shrinking advertising budgets of cosmetics and beauty brands [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - FY22A revenue was $1,836 million, FY23A was $1,760 million, and FY24E is projected at $1,724 million, with a slight recovery expected in FY25E and FY26E [3][10]. - Adjusted net profit for FY22A was $540.1 million, FY23A was $450.6 million, and FY24E is expected to be $447.4 million, indicating a decline in profitability [3][10]. - The report highlights a non-GAAP operating profit margin (OPM) of 31.8% for Q1 2024, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to strict control over operating costs [2][3]. User Engagement Metrics - Monthly Active Users (MAU) decreased by 1% year-over-year to 588 million, while Daily Active Users (DAU) remained stable at 255 million. The company is focusing on acquiring high-quality users [2][3]. - The report indicates that the company is investing in key content verticals such as automotive, online gaming, and healthcare to enhance user interaction and verified account growth [2][3]. Financial Position - As of March 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion, sufficient to cover upcoming debt obligations and shareholder return plans [2][3]. - The report notes a projected decline in non-GAAP OPM to 32.9% for FY24E, reflecting ongoing operational challenges [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Weibo, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][12]. Core Insights - Weibo's total revenue for 1Q24 decreased by 4% YoY to US$395 million, with non-GAAP net income down by 4% YoY to US$107 million, but ahead of consensus estimates due to better control of operating expenses [2][3]. - Advertising revenue is expected to remain flat YoY in 2Q24, primarily due to a decline in the cosmetics and beauty vertical, although management anticipates a recovery in the ad business in 2H24, supported by improved consumer sentiment and the upcoming Olympic event [2][3]. - The target price has been lowered to US$17.00 from US$18.80, reflecting a discount to peers' average valuation [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue forecasts for FY24-26 have been reduced by 2%, mainly due to shrinking ad budgets from cosmetics and beauty brands [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24E is projected at US$447 million, with a slight decline of 0.7% YoY, while FY25E and FY26E are expected to grow by 10.1% and 5.7% respectively [3][6]. - Non-GAAP operating profit margin improved to 31.8% in 1Q24, attributed to a 10% YoY reduction in total operating expenses [2][3]. Advertising Revenue Performance - Advertising revenue declined by 5% YoY to US$339 million in 1Q24, with the cosmetics and beauty vertical being the primary contributor to this decline [2][3]. - Despite the challenges in the cosmetics sector, domestic beauty brands saw over 50% growth in ad revenue in 1Q24, while other verticals like online games and 3C products experienced double-digit growth [2][3]. User Metrics and Strategy - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) decreased by 1% YoY to 588 million, while Daily Active Users (DAUs) remained flat at 255 million [2][3]. - The company is focusing on acquiring high-quality users through optimized channel investments, which is expected to increase the percentage of high-ARPU users [2][3]. Financial Position - As of March 31, Weibo had cash and cash equivalents of US$2.1 billion, sufficient to cover upcoming senior notes due in July 2024 and shareholder return initiatives [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable cash position, with projected cash at the end of FY24E at US$2.6 billion [10].

行业点评 半导体 - 英伟达有望保持长期增长 英伟达于5月22日公布2025财年一季度财报。公司本季度收入为260亿美元，同比增长262%，环比增长 17.8%（上季度环比增长22.0%），较彭博一致预期的247亿美元高出5.5%。公司数据中心收入持续增长， 本季度达到226亿美元，同比增长426.7%，环比增长22.6%（上季度环比增长26.8%）。管理层预计二季度 收入约280亿美元，同比增长107.3%，环比增长7.5%。该指引比彭博一致预期的268亿美元高出4.4%。英伟 达股价于盘后交易时段上涨，涨幅超过5%，突破1,000美元大关。 公司本季度GAAP毛利率为78.4%，与上季度的76.0%和去年同期的64.6%相比，实现稳步增长。管理层预计 2025财年二季度的毛利率为74.8%，与此前预期一致。除强劲的一季度业绩和二季度指引外，英伟达宣布增 加股息，并将以10:1的比例进行拆股。预计此举将对公司股价产生积极影响。 本次业绩会亮点: AI需求持续增长，目前仍处于供不应求的状态。来自云服务供应商、企业及主权国家等的AI需求强劲。计算机 正在从被动接收指令向主动理解、推理和提供解决方案变革，应用场景 ...