盛益科技(600183 CH) 上半年收益稳健 ； 高铜价在短期内影响不大 圣益科技发布了其2024年上半财年的业绩。收入同比增长22.2%/环比增长10.6 %，达到人民币96亿，主要得益于AI服务器的强劲需求、汽车订单的增长和库 存回补。同时，毛利率提升至21.6%（对比2023年上半年的19.3%和下半年的1 9.2%），得益于利用率的改善及高利润产品占比增加。因此，净利润增长了68. 0%/环比增长53.1%，达到9.32亿。2024年上半财年的收入/净利润占我们全年 预测的47%/43%。从季度角度看，第二季度的收入/净利润分别同比增长26%/7 6%、环比增长18%/38%，而毛利率提升至21.8%（对比2024年第一季度的21.3 %和2023年第二季度的18.9%）。鉴于铜价预计保持高位，我们认为圣益的CC L业务将逐步恢复。目前股价较过去五年历史平均值低一个标准差。考虑到铜价 可能维持高位，我们预计圣益的CCL业务将逐渐复苏。 维持买入价在 26.41 元不变。 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------- ...

农夫山泉(9633 HK) 1H24 错过 ， 茶叶成为最大的利润贡献者 农夫的 1H24 收入 由于包装水部门市场份额下滑，公司未能达到其指引。我 们预计该部门的收入增长率将保持在低个位数，因为市场份额的恢复需要时间 。茶饮料部门的收入同比增长59%，其收入份额接近水类的38%，营业利润率 （OPM）比水类高10个百分点。茶饮料取代了包装水成为公司的主要利润驱 动因素。鉴于下半年不利的环境和管理层态度的软化，我们认为公司在2024财 年实现两位数收入增长的目标具有挑战性。基于2024财年市盈率40倍，我们 将目标价下调13%至50.38港元，以反映较低的盈利预测。维持买入评级。 水部门受到市场份额损失的伤害 2024年上半财年（1H24）收入同比增长8.4 %，低于预期，主要是由于包装水业务收入同比下降18%，原因是在2月因网 上谣言导致品牌受损后市场占有率下降。公司观察到7月和8月市场占有率有所 恢复，但要回到2月前的水平还需要时间。我们预计全年包装水业务收入将实 现个位数低增长，这反映了中大型水业务增长对小型水业务下滑的部分抵消作 用。包装水业务的营业利润率（OPM）较上年同期下降了4.2个百分点，这是 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for BYDE with a target price of HK$45.28, indicating a potential upside of 53% from the current price of HK$29.50 [4][14][20]. Core Insights - BYDE reported a strong revenue growth of 40% year-on-year for 1H24, driven by increased market share in the Apple segment, recovery in the Android market, integration with Jabil, and robust performance in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sector [2][3]. - Despite the strong revenue growth, net profit only increased by 0.1% year-on-year, falling short of expectations due to a 1 percentage point decline in gross profit margin and a significant increase in sales expenses by 211% [2][3]. - The outlook for 2H24 remains positive, with expectations of strong revenue growth driven by the iPhone/iPad upgrade cycle, solid Android demand, and contributions from AI server products [3][14]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, revenue is projected to reach RMB 171.96 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 32.3%. Net profit is expected to be RMB 5.06 billion, reflecting a growth of 25.3% [6][16]. - The report highlights a decrease in gross profit margin to 6.8% in 1H24, down from the previous year, while sales expenses surged to RMB 902 million [3][6]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in gross profit margin in 2H24, with interest expenses projected to decrease significantly as BYDE transitions from USD loans to RMB loans [3][14]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from assembly, components, and new smart products showed significant year-on-year growth, with assembly and components growing by 36% and 206% respectively, while new smart products experienced a decline of 16% [6][16]. - The NEV segment is anticipated to continue driving growth, supported by new product launches and increasing market demand [3][14]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a P/E ratio of 18.3x for the target price calculation, with assembly and components businesses valued at 15x, reflecting their recovery potential and market positioning [14][20]. - The report also notes a projected P/B ratio of 2.5x for FY24E, indicating a favorable valuation relative to peers [14][20].

BYDE (285 HK) 1H24 first take: strong revenue growth dragged by GPM and selling expenses BYDE reported 1H24 revenue growth of 40% YoY, largely in-line with estimates, driven by Apple share gains, Android recovery, Jabil consolidation and strong NEV segment. Net profit growth of 0.1% YoY is below our/consensus estimate by 21%/15% YoY, mainly dragged by weaker GPM (-1ppt YoY) and higher selling expenses (+211% YoY). Mgmt. will host an analyst briefing at 9:30am HKT today (29 Aug), and we will look for details ...

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) 1H24 missed, tea became top profit contributor Nongfu's 1H24 revenue missed company's guidance given its market share loss in the packaged water segment. We expect low single digit revenue growth for the segment since market share recovery takes time. Tea beverage revenue grew 59% YoY and delivered revenue share close to water of 38%, with a 10ppt higher in OPM than water segment. The tea beverage replaced the packaged water and became the company's top profit driver. We think that i ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Intron Tech [15][16]. Core Insights - Intron Tech reported 1H24 revenue of RMB 2.84 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, but net profit fell to RMB 97.7 million, a 37% decline year-over-year, primarily due to a gross profit margin (GPM) decline to 15.9% [1][19]. - The company expects a recovery in net profit margin in 2H24E driven by new order wins in new energy and ADAS, as well as expansion into overseas markets [1][15]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$ 2.35, based on a lowered 10x FY24E P/E, reflecting near-term industry headwinds [1][15]. Financial Performance - 1H24 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in the new energy segment, which grew 16% year-over-year, while other segments like body control and powertrain saw declines [1][12]. - The GPM for 1H24 was 15.9%, down from 20.6% in 1H23, indicating pricing pressures along the auto supply chain [1][19]. - The report projects FY24E revenue to be RMB 6.32 billion, with a net profit of RMB 225 million, reflecting a 29% decline year-over-year [10][19]. Segment Analysis - The new energy segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue projected to reach RMB 3.26 billion in FY24E, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 17.1% [12][19]. - The body control segment is projected to grow modestly, with revenue expected to reach RMB 951 million in FY25E, reflecting a 5% year-over-year increase [12][19]. - The powertrain segment is anticipated to face challenges, with a projected revenue decline of 23.1% in FY24E [12][19]. Valuation Metrics - Intron Tech is currently trading at 5.4x FY24E P/E and 3.2x FY25E P/E, which is considered attractive compared to peers in the automobile components sector [15][16]. - The report highlights that Intron's high return on equity (ROE) levels further support its undervaluation [15][16]. Upcoming Catalysts - Key catalysts for future growth include increased penetration of ADAS technologies and gaining market share among new energy vehicle clients [1][15].

Hansoh Pharma (3692 HK) Strong sales growth of innovative drugs Strong sales growth of innovative drugs in 1H24. Hansoh reported RMB6.51bn revenue in 1H24, including US$185mn upfront payment from GSK regarding the out-licensing of HS-20093 (B7-H3 ADC). In 1H24, Hansoh recorded RMB5.10bn (+13.8% YoY) revenue from product sales, representing 48% of our previous FY24 estimate, in line with our expectations. In 1H24, 77% of the total revenue came from innovative drugs. Excluding collaboration revenue, the sales ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Shengyi Tech with a target price of RMB26.41, implying a potential upside of approximately 49.2% from the current price of RMB17.70 [5][3]. Core Insights - Shengyi Tech reported solid earnings for 1H24, with revenue increasing by 22.2% year-on-year (YoY) to RMB9.6 billion, driven by strong demand in AI servers and automotive orders [3][4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 21.6%, benefiting from better utilization and a favorable product mix [3]. - Net profit surged by 68.0% YoY to RMB932 million, accounting for 47% of the full-year forecast [3][4]. - The report highlights that both the CCL and PCB segments experienced double-digit growth and margin expansion [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected at RMB20.85 billion, reflecting a 25.7% YoY growth, with net profit expected to reach RMB2.17 billion, an 86.7% increase YoY [4][12]. - Gross margin is anticipated to improve to 21.8% in FY24E and further to 23.9% by FY26E [4][15]. - The report indicates that the PCB revenue from the server market accounted for 38% of segment sales in 1H24, marking a 20% increase from 1H23 [3]. Segment Performance - CCL and Prepreg sales rose by 20.7% YoY, with GPM improving by 2.0 percentage points [3]. - PCB revenue increased by 23.5% YoY, with GPM improving by 1.6 percentage points [3]. - The report notes ongoing challenges in the telecom segment due to soft investments [3]. Market Conditions - The report discusses the impact of copper prices on Shengyi's CCL business, noting that prices peaked above US$10,000 per ton before retreating to US$9,300 per ton [3]. - It is expected that if copper prices stabilize, Shengyi's CCL average selling price (ASP) will likely increase, contributing to overall GPM improvements [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a target price of RMB 64.00 for Jiangsu Hengli, representing a 33% upside from the previous price of RMB 48.12 [1]. Core Views - Jiangsu Hengli's EBIT grew by 58% year-on-year to RMB 644 million in Q2 2024, driven by a 22% increase in revenue and a 6.3 percentage point expansion in gross profit margin [1]. - The net profit increased by only 5% to RMB 686 million, primarily due to a high base effect from Q2 2023, which included significant foreign exchange gains [1]. - The report highlights three positive trends: (1) Continuous revenue contribution from non-excavator components; (2) Deliveries of electric cylinders and ball screws (key components for robots) starting in July, leading to rapid production increases; (3) The hydraulic component production base in Mexico is expected to commence operations in December, with a designed annual output value of USD 4.5 billion [1]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, non-excavator cylinder sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 139,000 units, driven by demand from tunnel boring machines, cranes, and aerial work platforms [1]. - Revenue from non-excavator cylinders grew approximately 20% to RMB 1.3 billion, while revenue from excavator cylinders decreased by 13.5% to RMB 1.1 billion [1]. - The report projects revenue growth for Jiangsu Hengli, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 10,033 million in 2024, representing an 11.7% year-on-year increase [8]. Key Ratios - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 improved to 43.1%, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year and 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 31 times for 2024, aligning with historical averages [1]. - The net profit margin is expected to stabilize, with adjusted net profit forecasted to reach RMB 2,757 million in 2024, reflecting a 10.3% year-on-year growth [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Hengli is maintained at a target price of RMB 64.00, representing a 33.0% upside from the current price of RMB 48.12 [2]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Hengli reported a revenue growth of 22% year-on-year in 2Q24, with EBIT surging 58% year-on-year to RMB 644 million, driven by a surprising gross margin expansion of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is experiencing positive developments, with increasing contributions from non-excavator components and a fast production ramp-up in key products such as ball screws and electric cylinders [2][3]. - The hydraulic components production base in Mexico is expected to commence operations in December, with a designed annual output value of US$450 million [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY24E is projected to reach RMB 10,033 million, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year growth, while adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2,757 million, a 10.3% increase [11][14]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 42.2% in FY24E, up from 41.9% in FY23A [14]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 27.5% in FY24E, slightly down from 27.8% in FY23A [13][14]. Revenue Breakdown - Non-excavator cylinders sales volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 139,000 units in 1H24, driven by demand for tunnel boring machines, cranes, and aerial work platforms [2]. - Revenue from non-excavator cylinders grew approximately 20% to RMB 1.3 billion, while revenue from excavator cylinders decreased by 13.5% year-on-year to RMB 1.1 billion [2]. Key Ratios and Valuation - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.8 in FY23A to 23.4 in FY24E, indicating a more attractive valuation [11][14]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.5 in FY23A to 4.0 in FY24E, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [11][14]. - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 1.5% in FY23A to 1.6% in FY24E, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [11][14].