Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company and raises the target price to HK$20.00 from HK$15.50, implying a 21.8% upside from the current price of HK$16.42 [1]. Core Insights - The company's 3Q net profit after tax (NPAT) increased significantly by 17.7% year-on-year to RMB66.2 billion, driven by net fair value gains, which surged 80 times year-on-year [1]. - The report revises FY24-26E EPS forecasts upward by 148%, 38%, and 31% to RMB4.45, RMB2.58, and RMB2.61 respectively, reflecting improved fundamentals and investment performance [1][3]. - The company is expected to achieve a 17% growth in new business value (NBV) for FY24, supported by margin expansions and a favorable product mix [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total investment income (TII) of RMB261.4 billion in 9M24, a 152% increase year-on-year, with 3Q TII soaring 5.28 times year-on-year to RMB139.1 billion [1]. - In 9M24, NBV grew by 25.1% year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum, particularly in 3Q24, where new business sales surged [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at FY24E 0.41x P/EV and 0.91x P/BV, which are above the respective 3-year historical averages [1][4]. - The report indicates a fair value per share of HK$20.00 based on P/EV and P/B methodologies, reflecting a robust valuation outlook [4][13]. Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable equity market environment, with a significant allocation to high-dividend yield stocks anticipated to smooth out profit volatility [1][10]. - The report highlights a stable agency force with improved productivity, contributing to the positive outlook for new business sales [1][3]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates a shift in product mix towards higher sum-assured whole life and participating products for FY25, which is expected to drive sales growth [1]. - The report projects continued margin expansion and a resilient NBV growth trajectory, supported by regulatory changes and improved underwriting product mix [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Innovent Biologics with a target price of HK$55.21, representing a 39.6% upside from the current price of HK$39.55 [3][19]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics has demonstrated strong fundamentals supported by significant R&D catalysts and a commitment to corporate governance, as evidenced by the cancellation of a related-party transaction to protect investor interests [1][5]. - The company has shown robust product sales growth, with total product sales increasing over 40% year-on-year to more than RMB2.3 billion in Q3 2024, and a total of over RMB6.0 billion in the first nine months of 2024 [6][11]. - Innovent's product portfolio is expanding, with 11 marketed products and the anticipated approval of additional products, aiming for RMB20 billion in sales by 2027 [11][12]. Financial Performance - For FY24E, Innovent is projected to achieve revenue of RMB8.219 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [2][18]. - The company expects to narrow its non-IFRS EBITDA loss significantly, projecting a loss of RMB731 million for FY24E, with a target to achieve EBITDA breakeven by 2025 [11][19]. - R&D expenses are forecasted to be RMB2.795 billion in FY24E, indicating a continued investment in innovation [2][19]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - Innovent's leading product, sintilimab, achieved sales of US$150 million in Q3 2024, with expectations to reach RMB3.69 billion in 2024, a 34% increase year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is advancing several innovative drug candidates, including IBI363 and IBI343, which have shown promising results in clinical trials and are expected to create significant out-licensing opportunities [13][14]. - The anticipated approval of mazdutide for obesity and diabetes in 2025 is expected to enhance Innovent's position in the cardiovascular and metabolic sector [12][15]. Market Outlook - Innovent aims to leverage its strong commercial capabilities and broad product portfolio to drive growth in both domestic and international markets [1][11]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share in the rapidly growing sectors of oncology and metabolic diseases, with a focus on innovative therapies that address unmet medical needs [12][15].

Employment Data - In October 2024, non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000, significantly below the expected 100,000[1] - The previous two months' data was revised down by 112,000, with August and September figures adjusted to 78,000 and 223,000 respectively[1] - Private sector employment experienced its first month-on-month decline since December 2020, decreasing by 28,000 jobs[1] Labor Market Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.05% to 4.14%, despite a small drop in the labor force participation rate from 62.7% to 62.6%[1] - The average duration of unemployment increased to 22.9 weeks, the highest in nearly 31 months[1] - The labor force participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) fell from 84% in July to 83.5% in October[1] Sector-Specific Insights - Job losses in goods-producing sectors totaled 37,000, with durable goods manufacturing alone losing 47,000 jobs due to strikes[1] - Service sector job growth plummeted from 169,000 to just 9,000, marking the lowest level since December 2020[1] - Healthcare job growth slowed significantly, with new jobs dropping from 80,000 in September to 51,000 in October[1] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, with a further reduction of 100 basis points anticipated next year[1] - The overall employment data suggests a continued slowdown in the labor market, supporting a gradual easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve[1]

1 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update United Imaging (688271 CH) Anticipating a rapid rebound in domestic business United Imaging's 9M24 revenue declined by 6.4% YoY to RMB6,954mn, with 3Q24 revenue down by 25.0% YoY to RMB1.6bn. This downturn was primarily due to a challenging domestic market environment, marked by stringent industry regulations and delays in equipment renewal projects. Attributable net profit in 9M24 decreased by 36.9% YoY to RMB671mn, with net pro ...

Investment Rating - The stock is downgraded to HOLD with an adjusted target price of RMB86, based on 45x 2025E P/E [1] Core Views - Maxscend's 3Q24 revenue declined by 23% YoY and 1% QoQ to RMB1.1bn, driven by weak smartphone demand [1] - Net profit dropped by 84% YoY and 55% QoQ to RMB71mn, mainly due to GPM erosion, higher R&D costs, and asset impairment loss [1] - The company is undergoing a business model transformation from fabless to fab-lite, which is expected to weigh on short-term profitability [1] - Long-term growth prospects remain intact, but the stock is downgraded due to short-term challenges [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Quarterly sales were flat sequentially (-1%) in 3Q24, showing weak market demand compared to pre-pandemic growth of 40% QoQ in 3Q18/19 and 48% QoQ in 3Q23 [1] - 2024/25E revenue forecasts are revised down by 8%/7%, with FY24/25E revenue growth adjusted to 4.7%/23% YoY [1] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to recover to 40%+ in 2H25, but challenges are expected in the next 2-3 quarters due to capacity ramp-up and slow demand recovery [1] Module Business - Module revenue contribution increased to 43% of sales in 9M24, up from 36% in 2023, and is expected to further increase to 49%/55% in 2024/25E [1] - The modulization trend in the RFFE industry is seen as a key driver of future growth, providing more integrated solutions [1] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB4,582mn, with a YoY growth of 4.7%, while 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 23% to RMB5,639mn [2] - Net profit for 2024E is estimated at RMB558mn, with a significant recovery expected in 2025E to RMB1,019mn [2] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 40.0% in 2024E to 44.4% in 2026E [2] Valuation and Peers Comparison - The target price of RMB86 corresponds to 45x 2025E P/E, close to the peers' average of ~41x 2025E P/E [1] - Maxscend's 2024E P/E is 87.2x, higher than domestic peers like Vanchip (45.6x) and GigaDevice (51.9x) [10] Industry Trends - The RFFE industry is moving towards modulization, which is expected to benefit companies like Maxscend that are increasing their module business share [1]

4 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Amazon (AMZN US) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [16]. Core Views - The company has shown strong operational growth, with a 25% year-on-year increase in patient visits in Q3 2024, and a 13.5% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The management has raised the target for new store openings in 2024 to between 18 and 25, reflecting an aggressive expansion strategy [1]. - The company is benefiting from favorable government policies that support private healthcare institutions, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [1]. - The company plans to increase shareholder returns, targeting a dividend and buyback ratio of 30-50% of net profit over the next 3-5 years [1]. Financial Performance - For FY24E, the company expects revenue of RMB 3,031 million, a 30.5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected at RMB 388 million, reflecting a 27.4% growth [2][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is forecasted to be RMB 1.59, with a projected adjusted P/E ratio of 21.1 [2][14]. - The company has achieved a significant increase in store openings, with 19 new stores added in 2024, compared to 9 in the previous year [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the private traditional Chinese medicine sector, with a robust internal control system that supports sustainable growth amid regulatory scrutiny [1]. - The management has indicated that the acquisition cost for new stores is decreasing, with current P/S valuations around 0.8x, which is expected to remain below 1.0x for future acquisitions [1]. - The company has expanded its presence to 74 offline traditional Chinese medicine institutions across 20 cities, significantly increasing its market density in economically strong regions [1].

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with a target price of US$218.0 based on 24x FY25E PE [1][6] Core Viewpoints - Alphabet's 3Q24 results beat expectations with total revenue up 15% YoY to US$88.3bn and net income growing 34% YoY to US$26.3bn [1] - Google Cloud revenue surged 35% YoY to US$11.4bn, driven by GenAI adoption and improved efficiency [1] - AI integration in search and shopping ads is unlocking new monetization opportunities, with AI Overviews serving over 1bn users monthly [1] - Alphabet's operating margin expanded by 4.5ppts YoY to 32.3% in 3Q24, supported by effective cost management [1] Financial Performance - FY24E revenue is projected at US$349.7bn, with YoY growth of 13.8%, and FY26E revenue is expected to reach US$437.6bn [2][4] - Net profit for FY24E is forecasted at US$99.2bn, with a YoY increase of 34.4%, and FY26E net profit is estimated at US$126.1bn [4][10] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 58.0% in FY24E to 59.1% in FY26E, while operating margin is projected to rise from 31.4% to 33.1% over the same period [4][13] Google Cloud Performance - Google Cloud's operating profit margin (OPM) reached a record high of 17% in 3Q24, up 14ppts YoY and 6ppts QoQ [1] - Vertex AI, the enterprise AI platform, saw a 14x growth in Gemini API calls over a six-month period [1] AI and Search Integration - Google Search & other revenue grew 12% YoY to US$49.4bn in 3Q24, driven by AI-enhanced search experiences [1] - Circle to Search is now available on over 150mn Android devices, further enhancing user engagement [1] Capital Expenditure - Total capex in 3Q24 increased 62% YoY to US$13.1bn, primarily focused on servers and data centers [1] - Management expects capex to remain stable QoQ in 4Q24E and increase YoY in 2025E, albeit at a slower rate [1] Valuation - Alphabet is valued at US$218.0 per share based on 24x 2025E P/E, reflecting its leadership in the global advertising market and AI potential [6][7] - The target P/E multiple represents a premium to the sector average of 23x [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Li Auto Inc. with a target price raised from US$25.00 to US$30.00, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of US$25.01 [2][4]. Core Insights - Li Auto's 3Q24 earnings are considered strong, driven by an increase in average selling price, gross margin, and effective operating cost control. The main drag on earnings was attributed to share-based payments and fair value losses from investments [2]. - Despite limited information on new BEVs for 2025, the company is believed to be establishing a solid foundation with comprehensive charging infrastructure, larger showrooms, and advancements in autonomous driving technologies [2]. - The report suggests that the recent drop in share price following the 3Q24 results may present an opportunity for investors to accumulate shares [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 3Q24, Li Auto achieved a non-GAAP net profit of RMB3.8 billion, marking the highest in its history, and an operating margin of 8%, the highest recorded [2][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin (GPM) in 3Q24 was 22.2%, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than previous forecasts, aided by effective cost-cutting measures [2][9]. - For FY24E, the sales volume forecast remains at 0.51 million units, with an expected GPM increase of 0.7 percentage points QoQ for 4Q24 [2][7]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report revises up the earnings estimates for 4Q24 and FY25E following a strong performance in 3Q24. The FY25E net profit estimate is raised by 7% to RMB13.2 billion [2][8]. - The FY25E sales volume forecast is adjusted from 0.65 million units to 0.66 million units, reflecting stronger-than-expected sales of the L6 model [2][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected operating margin of 9.1% for 4Q24, which would drive a net profit of RMB4.3 billion for that quarter [2][9]. - Key valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 15.0 for FY24E and a projected P/E of 10.0 for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a revised 12-month target price of HK$35.5, implying a 0.5x FY24E P/Group EV and 1.1x FY24E P/BV [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in NPAT, up 65.5% YoY to RMB38.3 billion, with 3Q NPAT growing 173.6% YoY to RMB13.2 billion, driven by increased investment income and net fair value gains [1]. - Headline NBV rose 37.9% YoY to RMB14.2 billion in 9M24, with 3Q NBV on a like-for-like basis surging 75.3% YoY to RMB5.2 billion, attributed to margin expansions and a recovery in regular-paid new business sales [1][4]. - The company expects strong par sales momentum to continue into FY25, with participating policy sales gaining traction prior to a settlement rate cut [1][4]. Financial Performance - For FY24, the company anticipates a 37% YoY increase in headline NBV and NPAT/OPAT growth of 57%/3% YoY [1]. - EPS forecasts for FY24-26 have been revised up by 29%/6%/3% to RMB4.45/3.93/4.25, reflecting a more certain outlook for profitability and NBV growth [1][4]. - The NBV margin is expected to rise to 23.0% in 3Q24, up 5.9 percentage points YoY, driven by elevated sales of floating interest rate products and strengthened regular-paid new sales [1][4]. Investment Income - The company reported net fair value gains of RMB21.2 billion in 3Q24, a significant recovery from a net loss of RMB7.25 billion in 3Q23, benefiting from a rally in the equity market [1][4]. - The net investment yield landed at 3.9% in 9M24, with total investment yield at 6.3%, showing a positive trend driven by the equity market performance [1][4]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.4x FY24E P/EV and 0.9x FY24E P/BV, which is above the 3-year historical average [1][4]. - The report indicates a target valuation of RMB260.6 billion, with an implied P/EV of 0.55x and an implied P/BV of 1.12x [5].