Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TK Group with a target price (TP) of HKD 2.79, based on a FY24E price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.2 times, consistent with its 5-year historical forward P/E ratio [2][17][28]. Core Views - TK Group reported a positive profit for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year profit growth exceeding 40%. The optimistic outlook is supported by strong order momentum, new customer acquisitions, and recovery in revenue/profit margins across most segments [2][17]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and a profit growth of 38% in FY24E, driven by increased orders in the consumer electronics sector and improved operational efficiency [17][35]. - The report highlights that TK Group has a solid cash position after repaying a significant portion of its bank loans in FY23, allowing for potential acquisitions and maintaining a high dividend payout level [17][35]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for TK Group are as follows: - FY22: HKD 2,279 million - FY23: HKD 1,946 million - FY24E: HKD 2,339 million (20.2% YoY growth) - FY25E: HKD 2,705 million (15.6% YoY growth) - FY26E: HKD 3,135 million (15.9% YoY growth) [3][30][32]. - Net profit estimates are: - FY22: HKD 226.9 million - FY23: HKD 204.2 million - FY24E: HKD 281.4 million (37.8% YoY growth) - FY25E: HKD 334.8 million (19.0% YoY growth) - FY26E: HKD 399.1 million (19.2% YoY growth) [3][30][32]. - The report indicates an expected gross profit margin (GPM) increase to 24.3% in 1H24E from 23.3% in 1H23, reflecting improved operational leverage [17][35]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - P/E ratio for FY24E: 5.6 - P/B ratio for FY24E: 0.9 - Dividend yield for FY24E: 8.1% [3][32]. - The report emphasizes that the stock offers an attractive risk/reward profile, considering the expected EPS growth of 38% in FY24E and a dividend yield of 8% [17][35].

| --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | 宏观：高质量发展是推进中国式现代化的首要任务，政策利好科技行业与高 | | | | 端制造业，但提振消费政策依然较少。构建统一大市场和新型城镇化利好核 心城市、大众消费、科技行业、大数据公司、智能电网产业链和能源资源行 | 叶丙南 , Ph.D 刘泽晖 | | | 业龙头国企。在土地财政萎缩背景下，财税体制改革重点是为地方财政开 | 伍力恒 | | | 源，相关行业税负可能上升。未来金融业发展重点是科技金融、绿色金融、 普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融。 | 李汉卿 | | | 科技：会议强调发展新质生产力，促进实体经济和数字经济深度融合，健全 | 刘梦楠 | | | 现代化基础设施建设，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平 ...

2024 ¥ 7 月 22 日 招煤国际环球市场 | **** | 行业研究 中 国 医 药 政策利好持续兑现 年初至今,MSCI 中国區方指数下跌 24.3%,跑輪 MSCI 中国指数 27.9%;近期行 业初现反弹趋势。目前行业指数的动态市盈单为 23.8 倍,低于 12 年历史均值。宠 的三中全会及国常会再次弥落推进大规模设备更新。7月5日,国务院常务会议审 议通过《全链条支持创新跨发展实范方案》。医疗反腐已进行一年,我们预期随着 行业监管常态化,医药行业的盈利有望从 2H24 开始逐步修复。此外,海外降息预 期或将推动高辞性的创新药/器械板块体值反弹。我们继续看好龙头医疗设备、龙 头创新药(包含创药/Biotech)、业绩礼实且估值吸引的消费医疗企业。 ■ 三中全会弄火铁词"这条是新",国体会研究落地。7月19日国务院常务会议 研究加大力度支持大规模设备更新和消费品议旧换新政策措施。会议决定,统 筹安排起长期特别国债资金,进一步推动大规模设备更新标消费品以旧换新。 此外,三中全会相关新闻发布会也提到,"实施好大规模谈备更新和消费品以 旧换新政策,投入更多病金白银,办大政策支持力度,让企业和消费者获得实 ...

22 Jul 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Positive profit alert alleviates GPM concerns; Upgrade to BUY We upgrade Sunny Optical to BUY and raise our TP to HK$67.88 following 1H24 positive profit alert of 140-150% YoY growth, as we think Sunny's GPM recovery, iPhone share gain and hybrid/periscope cam adoption are tracking ahead of expectations. We revised up our FY24-25E EPS by 46-82% to reflect stronger GPM, iPhone share gain (18%/25% in 2024/2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for TK Group with a target price of HK$2.79, indicating a potential upside of 46.8% from the current price of HK$1.90 [8][21][40]. Core Insights - TK Group announced a positive profit alert for 1H24, projecting over 40% year-on-year earnings growth, primarily driven by strong orders in the smartphone and wearables segments [4][7]. - The company is expected to achieve 20% sales growth and 38% earnings growth year-on-year in FY24, supported by new client orders and improved operational efficiency [4][7]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve to 24.3% in 1H24, up from 23.3% in 1H23, due to a better product mix and utilization improvements [4][37]. Summary by Sections Earnings Summary - TK Group's revenue for 1H24E is projected at HK$1,025 million, reflecting a 19.8% increase year-on-year, with net profit expected to reach HK$77 million, a 41.4% increase [37]. - The gross margin is expected to rise to 24.3%, while the operating margin is projected at 6.2% for 1H24E [37]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from HK$1,946 million in FY23 to HK$2,339 million in FY24, representing a 20.2% year-on-year increase [30][42]. - Net profit is expected to increase from HK$204.2 million in FY23 to HK$281.4 million in FY24, marking a 37.8% growth [30][42]. Valuation - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 5.6x for FY24E, which is considered attractive given the expected earnings growth and dividend yield of 8% [4][40]. - The target price of HK$2.79 is based on an 8.2x FY24E P/E, aligning with the company's historical valuation metrics [40]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include strong order pipelines from major clients such as Meta, SONOS, and Polycom, alongside anticipated product launches from major tech companies [4][7]. - The company is well-positioned for potential M&A opportunities due to substantial cash reserves following debt repayments [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Meidong Auto, with a revised target price of HK$3.00, down from HK$4.00, based on a 10x FY25E EPS valuation [2][5]. Core Views - Despite facing strong industry headwinds, Meidong is expected to remain profitable in 1H24, with a projected net profit of RMB43 million, supported by subsidies from Porsche and Lexus [2]. - The outlook for FY25 is anticipated to improve due to the removal of the convertible bond burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW, leading to a projected net profit of RMB360 million [2]. - The report highlights a decline in new car sales volume by 8% YoY to 29,200 units in 1H24, with a significant drop in average selling price by 13% YoY [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY24 is projected at RMB24,141 million, a decrease of 15% YoY, with gross profit expected to drop by 11% YoY to RMB1,877 million [11]. - The new car gross margin is expected to fall to -3.7% in 1H24, marking the lowest in history, while after-sales service revenue is projected to rise by 12% YoY [2][11]. - The report indicates a significant decline in net profit from RMB521 million in FY22 to RMB140 million in FY23, with a forecasted recovery to RMB360 million in FY25 [11][12].

政策受益方向：新一代信息技术、人工智能、航空航天、新能源、新材料、高端装备、生 物医药、量子科技等新质生产力相关行业；制造业高端化、智能化和绿色化等新型工业化 方向；数字产业化和产业数字化等数字经济方向；生产性服务业高质量发展、产业互联 网、生活性服务业等；基础设施数字化改造、综合交通运输体系、通用航空和低空经济 等；集成电路、工业母机、医疗装备、仪器仪表、基础软件、工业软件、先进材料等重点 产业链。 2024 年 7 月 22 日 三中全会政策解读 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 必选消费：强文化自信或引国风更盛。我们认为会议对必选消费板块带来的 | | 潜在影响可总结为"强文化自信或助国风更盛，挖内需潜力或赋能本土品 | | 牌"，我们从会议中提炼出了以下关键词： 1 ）激发文化创新活力，优化文 | 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 市场策略 中国策略 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Yancoal Australia with a target price of HK$45, indicating a potential upside of 23.1% from the current price of HK$36.55 [4][12]. Core Insights - Yancoal's 2Q24 sales volume increased by 1% year-on-year, with a total attributable sales volume of 8.6 million tonnes. The company remains confident in achieving its full-year sales volume target of 37.3 million tonnes [2][12]. - The average selling price (ASP) for thermal coal decreased by 17% year-on-year to A$163 per tonne, while metallurgical coal ASP dropped by 21% to A$318 per tonne. The blended ASP fell by 20% to A$181 per tonne [2][12]. - Yancoal's financial position is solid, with a gross cash balance of A$1.55 billion as of the end of June 2024, indicating a strong net cash position moving forward [2][12]. Sales Volume and Revenue - In 2Q24, attributable sales volume for thermal coal was 7.5 million tonnes, up 3% year-on-year, while metallurgical coal sales volume was 1 million tonnes, down 17% year-on-year. Total attributable sales volume for 1H24 grew 17% year-on-year to 16.8 million tonnes [2][6]. - The estimated revenue for 2Q24 was approximately A$1.5 billion, reflecting a 20% decrease year-on-year but a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][14]. Financial Performance - The report projects a full-year revenue of A$7.133 billion for 2024, with a net profit forecast of A$1.477 billion, down from A$1.819 billion in 2023 [14][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at A$1.12, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.2x [14][17]. Cost and Production Guidance - Yancoal's operating cash cost is projected to be between A$89 and A$97 per tonne, reflecting a year-on-year change of -7% to +1% [2][12]. - The company maintains its full-year guidance for attributable saleable production at 35-39 million tonnes, which represents a year-on-year increase of 5% to 17% [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies, indicating a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a basket of 26 long positions with an average return of -4.1%, compared to the MSCI China index return of -2.2% [8]. - Among the 26 long positions, 4 stocks recorded returns of 5% or more, and 11 outperformed the benchmark [8]. Summary by Company - **Li Auto (LI US)**: Buy rating, target price of 26.00, potential upside of 24%, FY24E P/E of 21.2 [2]. - **Geely Automobile (175 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 14.00, potential upside of 70%, FY24E P/E of 11.7, dividend yield of 2.5% [2]. - **Zoomlion Heavy Industry (1157 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 7.50, potential upside of 60%, FY24E P/E of 8.4 [2]. - **Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 75.00, potential upside of 48%, FY24E P/E of 12.6, dividend yield of 1.9% [2]. - **Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 2219.00, potential upside of 50%, FY24E P/E of 23.1, dividend yield of 1.5% [2]. - **Tencent (700 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 480.00, potential upside of 29%, FY24E P/E of 17.8 [2]. - **Alibaba (BABA US)**: Buy rating, target price of 124.90, potential upside of 59%, FY24E P/E of 19.4 [2]. - **Xiaomi Group (1810 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 25.39, potential upside of 55%, FY24E P/E of 16.2 [2]. - **BYD Electronics (285 HK)**: Buy rating, target price of 45.15, potential upside of 28%, FY24E P/E of 14.0, dividend yield of 1.6% [2]. - **Northern Huachuang (002371 CH)**: Buy rating, target price of 405.00, potential upside of 15%, FY24E P/E of 32.2 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Ping An with a target price of HK$52.00, implying a potential upside of 52.5% from the current price of HK$34.10 [5][4]. Core Insights - The issuance of US$3.5 billion convertible bonds is expected to have a limited dilutive impact of approximately 3.43% on existing shares, with the initial conversion price set at HK$43.71, representing a premium of 21.2% over the closing price on July 15, 2024 [4][20]. - The potential use of proceeds from the convertible bonds is aimed at boosting the core solvency ratio of Ping An Life, which is projected to rise by 6.4 percentage points to 125.2% in 1Q24, assuming all proceeds are injected into the business [4][29]. - The stock is currently trading at FY24E 0.48x P/EV and 0.70x P/B, with an expected dividend yield of 8.0% and FY24E ROE at 13.2% [4][17]. Financial Summary - For FY24E, the net profit is estimated at RMB 154.021 billion, with an EPS of RMB 7.18, reflecting a growth trajectory from previous years [17][24]. - The core solvency ratio for Ping An Life was reported at 118.8% in 1Q24, which is above the industry average of 113.5% [4][29]. - The comprehensive solvency ratio for Ping An P&C is projected to be 199.1% in 1Q24, indicating strong financial health [9][4]. Share Capital and Structure - Following the full conversion of the bonds, the total number of H-shares will increase to approximately 8.07 billion, accounting for 42.9% of the enlarged share capital [4][20]. - The report also notes the cancellation of 102.6 million A-shares, which will partially offset the dilutive effect of the convertible bonds and increase the H-share proportion to 43.1% [4][20]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a projected dividend yield of 8.0% for FY24E, with a consistent increase in dividend payouts expected over the next few years [17][35]. - The P/B ratio is expected to decrease to 0.63x by FY25E, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [40][17].