Investment Rating - Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$1.65, reflecting a 24.8% upside from the current price of HK$1.32 [18][9][25] Core Insights - Dingdang Health reported a revenue of RMB4,857 million for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2%. The adjusted non-IFRS net loss was narrowed by 17.2% YoY to RMB107 million, indicating continuous economies of scale [2] - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth of 11.1% in 2024E, 12.2% in 2025E, and 13.2% in 2026E, driven by enhanced network scale, service capabilities, and increased online medicine purchasing [2] - Dingdang's operational efficiency improved significantly, with net operating cash outflow decreasing to RMB5 million in 2023 from RMB238 million in 2022, and fulfillment expenses as a percentage of revenue declining to 10.1% in 2023 from 12.7% in 2020 [2] - The promotion of "Internet + medical insurance" by local governments is expected to positively impact Dingdang's O2O medicine sale business, particularly in major revenue sources like Beijing and Shanghai [2] Financial Summary - Revenue growth from 2021A to 2023A was 65.1%, 17.7%, and 12.2% respectively, with projections of 11.1% for 2024E, 12.2% for 2025E, and 13.2% for 2026E [7][27] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of RMB107 million in 2023A to a loss of RMB53 million in 2024E, followed by profits of RMB14 million in 2025E and RMB95 million in 2026E [27][29] - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 31.0% in 2024E, with gradual improvements to 33.0% by 2026E [10][27] Operational Developments - Dingdang is continuously investing in enhancing its network scale and service capabilities, including warehousing and cold-chain logistics [2] - The company has been granted access to online medical insurance in Shanghai, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [2] - Local governments are expanding online medical insurance access to offline pharmacies, which Dingdang can leverage due to its extensive network [2]

Group 1: Chinese Stock Market Insights - Some investors remain optimistic about high dividend strategies amid unclear economic recovery and high USD interest rates[1] - There is a positive outlook for state-owned enterprises in the resource sector due to global commodity price increases and policy-driven price hikes[1] - Defensive sectors such as beer and soft drinks are favored as they align with cost-cutting and consumption downgrade trends in mainland enterprises[1] Group 2: Economic Comparisons and Currency Outlook - Investors believe that the pressure for RMB interest rate cuts may be greater than for USD, limiting significant appreciation of RMB against USD[2] - The divergence between US and non-US economic growth is expected to persist, with US inflation potentially remaining stronger than in China[6] - The nominal GDP growth rate for China is projected to exceed that of Japan, the Eurozone, and the US in Q1, Q2, and Q4 of this year[7] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The housing market is expected to see a decline of 10%-20% after a nearly 25% drop, with high inventory levels and low rental yields contributing to this outlook[4] - Many investors express skepticism about the sustainability of housing market recovery, citing the need for improvements in household employment and income[4] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a phase of declining prices to one of price stabilization and volume increase[15] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - US inflation is expected to moderate in the second half of the year, with CPI rental inflation showing potential for decline[9] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to initiate rate cuts in September, with a total reduction of approximately 150 basis points expected over the next two years[10] - Inflation in China is projected to gradually ease, with CPI growth expected to rise from 0.2% last year to 0.6% this year and 1.3% next year[16]

2024 年 6 月 4 日 每日投资策略 宏观策略 / 公司点评 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http://www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多研究报告 资料来源：彭博、招银国际环球市场（截至 2024 年 6 月 3 日） 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 2 分析员声明 买入 : 股价于未来 12 个月的潜在涨幅超过 15% 持有 : 股价于未来 12 个月的潜在变幅在-10%至+15%之间 卖出 : 股价于未来 12 个月的潜在跌幅超过 10% 未评级 : 招银国际环球市场并未给予投资评级 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 招银国际环球市场有限公司 | | | | 地址 : 香港中环花园道 3 号冠君大厦 45 楼 | 电话 : (852) 3900 0 ...

半导体行业 - Marvell 2025 财年一季度业绩概览 Marvell (MRVL US, NR) 公布了 2025 财年一季度业绩，收入为 11.6 亿美元 （同比下降 12.2%，环比下降 18.6%），符合公司指引预期。非 GAAP 毛利 率为62.4%，较2024财年四季度有所下降。调整后每股收益为0.24美元（同 比下降 22.6%，环比下降 47.8%）。 回顾一季度业绩，按业务部门划分，数据中心仍然是主要收入驱动因素，占 总收入的 70%，得益于 Cloud AI 应用的强劲需求。具体来看，一季度数据中 心收入同比增长 87.3%，环比增长 6.7%，公司预计二季度将实现中个位数的 增长。企业和运营商业务在一季度同比下降 58.0%和 75.2%，这两个业务部 门预计将在今年上半年触底，二季度收入将持平。尽管消费者业务同比下降 70.4%，公司预计二季度收入将翻倍。汽车和工业业务将继续进行库存调整， 预计二季度收入将保持稳定。 我们预计公司 2025 财年的 AI 收入将超越此前公司预估的 15 亿美元（相比 2024 财年的 5.5 亿美元），意味着同比增速超过 170%。AI 收入仍然 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Salesforce with a target price of US$335.00, down from the previous target of US$350.00, reflecting a 53.7% upside from the current price of US$218.01 [2][3][9]. Core Insights - Salesforce's total revenue for 1QFY25 grew by 11% YoY to US$9.13 billion, aligning with consensus estimates, while non-GAAP operating income increased by 29% YoY to US$2.93 billion [2]. - The company's cRPO growth rate has moderated to 10% YoY in 1QFY25, down from 12% in 4QFY24, attributed to a more cautious buying behavior from clients and organizational changes [2]. - Management has adjusted FY25 subscription and support revenue growth guidance to slightly below 10%, while maintaining non-GAAP operating margin guidance at 32.5% [2][7]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue forecasts for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E have been revised down by 1-2% due to persistent headwinds affecting bookings growth [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at US$9.32 billion, reflecting a 15.3% YoY growth [3][12]. - Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 32.1% in 1QFY25, driven by efficiency gains in sales and marketing [2][12]. Segment Performance - Sales/Service Cloud revenue grew by 10% and 11% YoY to US$2.0 billion and US$2.2 billion, respectively, while Integration and Analytics Cloud revenue surged by 24% YoY to US$1.4 billion [2]. - Data cloud solutions are gaining traction, with strong demand supported by generative AI, contributing to 25% of Salesforce's million-dollar-plus deals in 1QFY25 [2][9]. Market Position and Valuation - Salesforce's valuation is based on a target EV/EBITDA of 20x FY25E, which is at a discount to the sector average of 25x, reflecting the company's transition into a more mature earnings growth phase [9][10]. - The company has established the Zero Copy Partner Network with major tech firms, enhancing its data cloud capabilities and positioning it favorably for future growth [2][9].

2024 年 5 月 31 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 Salesforce (CRM US) cRPO 增长因宏观逆风而放缓 目标价 335.00 美元 Salesforce 公布了 25 季度的财务业绩 ： 总收入同比增长 11%，达到 91.3 亿美元，符合普遍 (先前 TP US $350.00) 预期 ； 非 GAAP 营业收入同比增长 29%，达到 29.3 亿美元，符合普遍预期。市场担心其 上涨 / 下跌 53.7% cRPO 增长率在 1QFY25 （ 4QFY24 ： 同比增长 12 ％ ） 下降至 10 ％，低于公司指导 （ 同比增长 11 ％ ），这主要是由于客户的购买行为和 Salesforce 的变化进入市场组织。鉴于 CurrentPrice US $218.01 宏观逆风，管理层将 FY25 订阅和支持收入增长指导下调至略低于 10% （ 之前 ： 同比增长 中国互联网 10% ），同时保持非 GAAP 营业利润率指导不变。由于预订增长的持续逆风，我们将 FY25 - Saiyi He, CFA 27E 总收入预测下调 1 - 2% 。我们将 25 财年 ...

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for Northern Huachuang (002371CH) with a target price of RMB 405 [1] Core Viewpoints - Northern Huachuang is expected to benefit from the expansion of downstream customers' capital expenditures and the trend of domestic substitution in China's semiconductor industry [1] - The establishment of China's National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III (USD 47 5 billion) is expected to be favorable for Northern Huachuang [1] - The company is the preferred stock under the theme of semiconductor domestic substitution [1] Industry Analysis - Geopolitical risks are driving major economies to prioritize supply chain security and self-reliance over production efficiency [1] - China's National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III has a registered capital of RMB 3 440 billion, the largest to date (Phase I/II were RMB 1 390 billion/RMB 2 000 billion respectively) [1] - The fund is expected to focus on chip manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, and materials, potentially extending to other critical areas such as AI [1] Company Performance and Outlook - Northern Huachuang's 2023 new orders amounted to RMB 30 billion, with over 70% from semiconductor equipment and 15% from new energy/photovoltaics [1] - These orders are expected to convert into revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue growth of approximately 40% for the year [1] - The company's gross margin forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been raised by 1 9% and 3 9% respectively, due to increased contributions from advanced manufacturing equipment [1] - R&D expenditure forecasts have also been raised, offsetting the positive impact of gross margin improvements on net profit [1] - The target price of RMB 405 is based on a 2024 forecasted P/E ratio of 39x [1]

2024 年 5 月 30 日 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 JOYY Inc (YY US) 超越 2Q24E 的温和季节性 目标价 47.00 美元 JOYY 在第 1 季度表现乐观，但在第 2 季度的收入指导略低于市场预期 2% 。鉴于直播的季 （ 以前的 TP 为 50.50 美元 ） 节性疲软，我们预计第二季度总收入同比增长 1.2%，调整。净利润为 5000 万美元。我们估 涨 / 跌 50.0% 计 Bigo 的广告增加将部分抵消直播的柔软度。对于 Bigo 直播业务，美国和东南亚市场的势 头趋势良好，而中东的复苏需要更多时间。对于 FY24E，我们对集团收入保持乐观，以恢复 现价 31.33 美元中国娱乐 正增长，但略有削减 FY24E 调整。净利润为 2.42 亿美元，以反映 Hello 影响和较低的利息 苏菲黄 收入。我们将 FY24 - 26E 净利润预测下调 12% - 14% 。以低于 SOTP 的 TP 维持买入 47 美 (852) 3900 0889 元。  1Q24 乐观 ， 但 2Q24 指导疲软。第 1 季度收入同比下降 3.3% ， 高于市场预期 ...

M N 30 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update JOYY Inc (YY US) Looking beyond 2Q24E’s soft seasonality Target Price US$47.00 JOYY delivered an upbeat 1Q24, but revenue guidance for 2Q24E slightly (Previous TP US$50.50) missed consensus by 2%. Given soft seasonality of livestreaming, we Up/Downside 50.0% expect total revenue +1.2% YoY in 2Q24E, with adj. net profit at US$50mn. Current Price US$31.33 We estimate Bigo’s ramp-up of ads would partly offset livestreaming soft ...

M N 29 May 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Baozun (BZUN US) A solid start with steady transition year Target Price US$4.93 Baozun’s 1Q24 results were better-than-feared, in which revenue +5% YoY Up/Downside 85.3% (4% above consensus) and bottom line came in at -RMB15mn (vs. Current Price US$2.66 consensus of -RMB45mn). Ecommerce segment achieved positive OCF for the first time since 2019. Despite macro uncertainty, we expect BEC to China Entertainment bottom out in 2 ...