Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The tightening of carbon emission quotas is beneficial for high-efficiency coal power plants, while the gas sector is expected to maintain low gas source costs in 2024, with market reforms aiding natural gas demand growth [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Carbon Emission Quotas Tightening Benefits High-Efficiency Coal Power Units - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released a draft for the carbon emission trading quota for the power generation industry for 2023 and 2024, shifting the quota calculation from electricity supply to electricity generation [3][4] - The new quota scheme focuses on emission intensity rather than absolute emission reductions, which is expected to favor high-efficiency coal power units [5][6] - The benchmark values for various coal power units are set to decrease by approximately 0.5% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5][6] 2. Natural Gas: 2024 Gas Source Costs Remain Low - Natural gas prices have remained low in 2024, with pipeline gas import prices decreasing by 11.2% and LNG import prices by 17.2% in the first five months [12][14] - National gas consumption is projected to grow steadily, with a 10.8% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption in early 2024 [12][14] - Market reforms are expected to enhance gas trading volumes and consumption, with significant developments in pipeline gas pre-sale trading [16][17] 3. Recommended Portfolio Performance - The recommended portfolio, including companies like Changjiang Electric Power and Huaneng Hydropower, has outperformed the market, with a 37.20% increase in 2024 compared to the broader indices [1][19] 4. Key Company Valuations - Companies such as China Nuclear Power and Huaneng Power are rated as "Buy," with projected earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratios [21][23]

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 7 月 14 日 能源金属底部震荡,关注软磁和铜合金材料的主题机会 看好(维持) ——有色金属 能源金属&新材料周报(24/7/08-24/7/14) 投资要点: ➢ 能源金属方面,价格整体呈弱势运行趋势。锂:本周,碳酸锂价格下跌 0.88%至 89750 元/吨,氢氧化锂 价格下跌 0.30%至 82200 元/吨,近期市场偏弱震荡运行。供给端,碳酸锂产量稳步攀升,6 月碳酸锂产 量 64868 吨,环比上升 4%,增速放缓;需求端,补库行情结束,部分下游库存足够满足生产需求,长协 客供稳定下现货成交相对清淡。预计后续价格偏弱震荡运行。建议关注:天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中矿资源、 永兴材料。 ➢ 钴:本周海外 MB 钴价下跌 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering its core pipeline is nearing approval and the progress of its R&D pipeline is positive [3] Core Views - The company has entered into a licensing agreement with Belenos Biosciences, granting exclusive rights for the research, development, registration, production, and commercialization of two bispecific antibodies (CM512 and CM536) outside Greater China [2] - The company will receive an upfront payment of $15 million and a 30.01% equity stake in Belenos, with potential additional payments of up to $170 million based on development, regulatory, and commercial milestones [2] - The company's R&D pipeline is differentiated and progressing well, with CM310 (IL4Rα) expected to be approved in China for adult moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis this year, and other indications such as chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps and seasonal allergic rhinitis also progressing [2] - CMG901 (CLDN 18.2 ADC) has global rights granted to AstraZeneca, with a global Phase III trial for second-line gastric cancer completed in April 2024 [2] - Other pipeline candidates, including CM326 (TSLP), CM338 (MASP-2), CM313 (CD38), and several CD3 bispecific antibodies, are also advancing through clinical trials [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to be RMB 224 million, RMB 532 million, and RMB 1.216 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Using a DCF valuation method with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 9.46%, the company's fair equity value is estimated at RMB 16.3 billion, equivalent to HKD 17.6 billion (exchange rate: RMB 1 = HKD 1.08) [3] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, ranging from 89.44% to 91.00% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be negative, with losses of RMB 704 million, RMB 772 million, and RMB 512 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - ROE is expected to remain negative, ranging from -30.7% to -50.4% over the same period [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][7]. Core Insights - The company showcased significant progress in its innovative drug pipeline during the R&D Day held on July 9, 2024, highlighting the clinical data and market potential of its candidate drugs [3]. - The company has a strong competitive edge with its innovative pipeline, which includes promising candidates such as Syk inhibitor, Sovanertinib, and HMPL-306, each targeting specific diseases with substantial market potential [4]. - Future catalysts for the company include the anticipated growth in overseas sales of Fuquintinib, ongoing clinical trials for various indications, and expected regulatory approvals that could drive revenue growth [5]. Summary by Sections Company Events - On July 9, 2024, the company held an R&D Day where management shared insights on clinical data and market value of its innovative pipeline, including Syk inhibitor for autoimmune diseases, Sovanertinib for pancreatic cancer, and HMPL-306 for acute myeloid leukemia [3]. Candidate Pipeline Progress - Syk Inhibitor: Demonstrates superior selectivity and safety profile, with ongoing clinical trials showing promising results for ITP and wAIHA [4]. - Sovanertinib: Shows improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in combination with PD1 and chemotherapy for pancreatic cancer [4]. - HMPL-306: Targets IDH1/2 mutations in acute myeloid leukemia, with a registration-phase III trial initiated [4]. Future Catalysts - Fuquintinib's overseas sales are expected to grow, with a potential approval in Japan in the second half of 2024 [5]. - The company anticipates new sales growth from domestic approvals for various indications, including gastric cancer and other cancer therapies [5]. - The company has a robust cash position of $886 million as of the end of 2023, supporting its growth strategy [5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company projects total revenue of $300 million to $400 million in 2024, driven by existing product sales and royalties [5]. - Revenue estimates for 2024-2026 are $705 million, $912 million, and $1.185 billion, respectively, with a calculated equity value of HKD 40.9 billion based on DCF analysis [5][6].

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 证券分析师 刘闯 S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 14 日 血制品外延还有多大空间? 看好(维持) ——医药行业周报(24/7/8-24/7/12) 投资要点: 本周医药市场表现分析:本周以恒瑞医药为代表的创新药表现相对强势;此外,受证监会宣布暂停 转融券业务影响,部分处于底部的医疗服务和 CXO 个股反弹明显;部分中报业绩超预期的个股如 国药现代、甘李药业、奥锐特等表现相对亮眼。短期建议关注:1)创新药:海外方面,美国 6 月 通胀数据再次超预期放缓,市场预期 9 月降息可能性加大,叠加前期国务院官方表态支持创新药全 产业链条发展,我们继续看好创新药趋势持续,优质创新药个股有望迎来反弹;2)中报:逐步进 入中报业绩窗口期,建议关注半年报较好及下半年业绩预期加速个股。3)超跌:医药指数呈现底 部企稳迹象,超跌个股有望迎来反弹。 医药指数和各细分领域表现、涨跌幅分析:本周表现较为分散,整体 ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 14 日 美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,金价有望持续上涨 看好(维持) ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(24/7/8-24/7/14) 投资要点: ➢ 美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,美联储 9 月降息或成大概率事件,金价有望持续上涨。铜金中长期逻辑仍未改变, 仍建议继续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率的电解铝板块,小金属建议关注:钨、锰、锑 和铟,同时可关注滞涨品种如镍和镁等。 ➢ 贵金属板块:美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,美联储 9 月降息或成大概率事件,金价后续有望持续上涨。伦敦现 货黄金上涨 1.17%、上期所黄金上涨 1.92%,伦敦现货白银上涨 0.46%、上期所白银上涨 1.96%,钯金 下跌 ...

证券研究报告 投资要点: 市场表现: 天坛生物 沪深300 -19.00% 盈利预测与估值 股价数据: 2024 年 7 月 12 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|-------------|--------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 收盘价(元) | 23.40 | | | | | | | | 年内最高/最低(元) | 27.14/19.08 | 营业总收入(百万元) | | | | | | | 总市值(亿元) | 463 | 同比增长率(%) | 3.6% | 21.6% | 17.7% | 18.8% | 15.9% | | | | 毛利率(%) | 49.1% | 50.8% | 53.7% | 53.8% | 54.0% | | | | 归母净利润(百万元) | | | | | | | | | 同比增长率(%) | 15.9% | 26.0% | 27.0% | 22.5% | 17.8% | | | | ...

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现: 相关研究 2024 年 07 月 14 日 美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,金价有望持续上涨 看好(维持) ——有色金属 大宗金属周报(24/7/8-24/7/14) 投资要点: ➢ 美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,美联储 9 月降息或成大概率事件,金价有望持续上涨。铜金中长期逻辑仍未改变, 仍建议继续关注贵金属、低冶炼自给率的铜和高氧化铝自给率的电解铝板块,小金属建议关注:钨、锰、锑 和铟,同时可关注滞涨品种如镍和镁等。 ➢ 贵金属板块:美国 6 月 CPI 低于预期,美联储 9 月降息或成大概率事件,金价后续有望持续上涨。伦敦现 货黄金上涨 1.17%、上期所黄金上涨 1.92%,伦敦现货白银上涨 0.46%、上期所白银上涨 1.96%,钯金 下跌 ...

证券研究报告 股价教据: 2024 年 7 月 11 日 星利预测与估值 收盘价(元) 27.90 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 年内最高/最低 (元) 营业总收入(百万元) 2405 2,329 2,920 3,366 3,872 31.02/17.36 总市值(亿元) 同比增长率 (%) 21.98% -3.18% 25.41% 15.25% 15.04% 205 毛利率 (%) 52.13% 51.5% 52.7% 52.8% 52.8% 归母净利润（百万元） 587 612 769 916 1,074 同比增长率 (%) 50.1% 17.3% 4.3% 25.6% 19.1% 每股收益 (元/股) 0.80 0.84 1.05 1.25 1.46 ROE (%) 8.5% 8.2% 9.4% 10.1% 10.5% 市盈车 28.39 32.49 22.34 19.04 26.61 医药生物 公司点评 2024 年 07 月 12 日 派林生物 (000403.SZ) -- 业绩超预期,后续股东赋能想象空间大 投资买点: A 公司事件: 公司发布 2024 上半年业绩预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and potential growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with expectations of a year-on-year growth of 120%-140% [3]. - The blood products market remains robust, with strong demand driving the company's revenue growth, supported by an increase in plasma collection [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the commissioning of new plasma collection stations, which will enhance its collection capacity and overall performance [3]. - A strategic partnership with Xinjiang Deyuan is anticipated to provide additional growth opportunities, with incentives tied to plasma supply volumes [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 769 million, 916 million, and 1,074 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 25.6%, 19.1%, and 17.3% [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the upcoming years are estimated at 26.61, 22.34, and 19.04, suggesting a favorable valuation trend [4].