证券研究报告 贵金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 09 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——贵金属双周报（2025/1/25/-2025/2/8） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 贵金属板块：金银价格稳步走强，黄金价格接近新高。近两周，伦敦现货黄金上涨 3.52%至 2874.65 美元/盎司，上期所黄金上涨 3.24%至 669.90 元/克，沪金持仓量 下跌 1.83%至 35.61 万手；伦敦现货白银上涨 4.65%至 32.28 美元/盎司，上期所白 银上涨 3.56%至 8055 元/千克，沪银持仓量上涨 7.85%至 65 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 02 月 08 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 3页/ 共 15页 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 深入推进北交所普惠金融试点，关注业绩超预期公司+热点主题交易机会 ——北交所周观察第十二期（20250209） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 深入推进北交所、新三板普惠金融试点，多措并举活跃并购重组市场。证监会发布 《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意见》，其中提到要着力做好科技 金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"。在科技金融领 域，提出优化科技型上市公司并购重组制度。实施好《关于深化上市公司并购重组 市场改革的意见》，多措并举活跃并购重组市场。北交所作为服务创新型中小企业 主阵 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating significant potential for growth due to its successful transformation into an innovative pharmaceutical leader [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has made substantial progress in its transformation from a traditional generic drug manufacturer to a leader in innovative pharmaceuticals, focusing on four key therapeutic areas: oncology, liver disease, respiratory, and surgical/pain management [7][10]. - The impact of centralized procurement has largely dissipated, allowing for a rapid increase in the proportion of revenue from innovative drugs, with expectations of over 20 new drug approvals by 2025 [10][41]. - The company has a robust pipeline with 17 approved innovative products and over 70 in clinical development, which is expected to drive revenue growth significantly [10][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Accelerated Transformation of Traditional Pharma Leader - The company has been transitioning towards innovation-driven growth, with a focus on high clinical value products and a strong commercialization system [7][19]. - The financial performance has shown a notable improvement, with revenue for the first half of 2024 reaching RMB 15.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [10][30]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and strategic collaborations to enhance its innovative capabilities [41][42]. 2. Innovative Drug Pipeline Continues to Deliver - The oncology sector is a core focus, with multiple innovative drugs launched, including Anlotinib, which has shown promising sales potential [47][49]. - The company’s innovative product revenue reached RMB 99 billion in 2023, accounting for 38% of total revenue, with expectations to exceed 45% by 2025 [38][39]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its research and development efficiency, with a significant increase in the proportion of innovative drug R&D expenses [10][28]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at RMB 289.04 billion, RMB 321.90 billion, and RMB 360.85 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 10.32%, 11.37%, and 12.10% [6][8]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is RMB 49.00 billion, RMB 52.09 billion, and RMB 55.59 billion, with growth rates of 110.14%, 6.31%, and 6.70% respectively [6][8]. - The company is expected to trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 10, and 9 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [8][10].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The essence of the "Apple Tax" reduction is to benefit upstream IP/research/distribution companies, with companies that have a high revenue share from Apple's iOS expected to be the main beneficiaries [23][24] - If the restrictions on downloading from third-party platforms on iOS are lifted, companies like Xindong (TapTap) could see an increase in user numbers and engagement, leading to growth in traffic business [25][28] Summary by Sections 1. Event Overview - The Chinese antitrust regulatory authority is investigating Apple's policies and app store fees, focusing on the 30% commission on in-app purchases and restrictions on external payment services [6][9] 2. "Apple Tax" Definition - "Apple Tax" refers to the 30% commission Apple takes from users when they purchase apps or in-app services through the App Store [10] 3. Regional Market Policies - The "Apple Tax" rate in China is the highest globally, with standard enterprises paying 30% and small enterprises 15% [11] 4. Channel Commission Rates - The report outlines various commission rates across platforms, noting that iOS and traditional Android channels generally have a 30% commission rate [13][14] 5. "Apple Tax" Elasticity Analysis - The report estimates that the mobile gaming market revenue in China for 2024 will be approximately 238.2 billion yuan, with potential reductions in the "Apple Tax" benefiting developers significantly [17][19] 6. Investment Analysis Recommendations - Continuous attention is recommended for gaming companies and platforms in light of the Apple antitrust investigation, with specific companies like Tencent, Xindong, and NetEase highlighted as potential beneficiaries [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the logistics industry, highlighting resilience in demand and potential for growth in various segments [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is expected to continue its resilient growth in 2025, driven by trends such as consumption downgrade, increased return rates, and the small parcel trend [6][9]. - The freight forwarding market is projected to maintain steady demand, with an optimistic outlook for profitability recovery [4][59]. - Cross-border logistics are benefiting from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, although attention is needed regarding changes in U.S. tariff policies [5][6]. - Chemical logistics are currently facing weak demand, with expectations for a recovery in the future [6]. Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is anticipated to grow due to resilient demand, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements among direct delivery companies [3][6]. - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and SF Express, each showing unique strengths and growth potential [6][18]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding market is expected to see steady growth, with the market share of full-network freight forwarding projected to reach 10% by 2027, corresponding to a scale of 1,797 billion [6][58]. - Companies like Debang Logistics and Aneng Logistics are highlighted for their growth potential and profitability improvements [6][62]. Cross-Border Logistics - The growth of cross-border e-commerce is driving demand for cross-border logistics, with a focus on monitoring U.S. tariff policy changes [5][6]. Chemical Logistics - The chemical logistics sector is currently experiencing weak demand, with expectations for a recovery in the future as the market stabilizes [6][70]. Overall Industry Trends - The logistics industry is characterized by a high level of competition, with a focus on finding differentiated investment opportunities while maintaining a long-term view on cash flow returns [33][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (First time) [4] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Spring Festival travel data shows a significant increase in cross-regional mobility, with a total of 2.3 billion movements during the holiday, averaging 288 million per day, which is a 0.6% increase compared to 2024 and a 34% increase compared to 2019 [4] - The aviation passenger volume reached a historical high during the Spring Festival, with an average daily passenger flow of 2.28 million, a 1.4% increase year-on-year and a 26.8% increase compared to 2019 [4] - The international travel market is recovering, with outbound flights reaching 89.4% of 2019 levels during the Spring Festival, and a total of 14.36 million outbound trips recorded, marking a 6.3% year-on-year increase [4] Summary by Sections Section: Travel Data - The Ministry of Transport reported that the Spring Festival holiday saw a total of 2.3 billion cross-regional movements, with various travel modes showing different growth rates compared to 2024 and 2019 [4] - The new holiday policy allowed for extended vacation periods, leading to a smoother distribution of travel demand [4] Section: Aviation Performance - The average daily passenger flow for airlines during the Spring Festival was 2.28 million, with a notable increase in capacity utilization and a slight decrease in ticket prices [4] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class during the Spring Festival was 1,033 yuan, down 2.6% from the previous year [4] Section: International Travel - The recovery of international flights is evident, with Japan, Thailand, and South Korea being the top destinations [4] - The inbound tourism market showed a 10% increase in visitor numbers compared to 2024, driven by new visa policies and increased spending by foreign visitors [4] Section: Investment Analysis - The aviation industry is expected to experience a supply-demand reversal in 2025, with strong travel demand and ongoing recovery of international routes likely to improve airline performance [4]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (Maintain) [4] Core Viewpoints - The oil transportation sector benefits from ongoing sanctions against Iran, leading to sustained positive effects on shipping rates [3][4] - The report highlights that China remains a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, which is significant for the shipping market [6] - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan without changes, which could impact global oil supply dynamics [7] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Performance**: The shipping market is experiencing favorable conditions due to geopolitical factors, particularly the sanctions on Iran [3][4] - **Oil Supply Dynamics**: Non-OPEC regions, including the US, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Norway, are expected to increase production, creating potential trade replacement opportunities [9] - **Shipping Rates**: The report includes analysis on VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, indicating seasonal trends and historical performance [10][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The total box office for the 2025 Spring Festival reached 9.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.98% [4][7] - The 2025 Spring Festival film market showed significant improvement in supply-demand efficiency, with a 12.22% decrease in screening sessions but a 10.16% increase in audience numbers, reaching 180 million [4][7] - The average ticket price for the Spring Festival increased to 50.97 yuan, reflecting a 3.46% year-on-year growth, indicating a stronger willingness to pay for quality content [4][7] - The head effect is significant, with the animated film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" achieving a box office of 4.609 billion yuan, accounting for 50.2% of the total box office [4][12] - The film market is experiencing a structural adjustment, with fourth-tier cities becoming the core growth engine, contributing 3.356 billion yuan to the total box office, a 44% increase from 2024 [4][21] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - The total box office for the 2025 Spring Festival reached 9.174 billion yuan, a 13.98% increase from 8.049 billion yuan in 2024 [4][7] - The average daily box office was 1.147 billion yuan, marking a 13.98% increase and achieving continuous growth for three consecutive years [4][7] Audience Engagement - Audience numbers increased by 10.16% to 180 million, with average audience per screening rising to 51.86, a 25.49% increase [4][7] - The film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" demonstrated a strong market appeal, with a high audience rating of 8.5 on Douban [4][12] Market Trends - The 2025 film market is expected to be driven by "head IP, market deepening, and differentiated consumption scenarios" [31] - The average ticket price in fourth-tier cities surpassed 51 yuan, indicating a dual momentum of consumption upgrade and market expansion [21][31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong content production capabilities and quality content reserves, such as Light Media, Maoyan Entertainment, Wanda Film, Alibaba Pictures, and others [36]

Group 1: Fixed Income - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points, indicating a seasonal decline influenced by the early Spring Festival [6][7][8] - The non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 50.2%, although it decreased by 2.0 percentage points, with service and construction sectors showing signs of slowdown [6][8] - The economic outlook for 2025 suggests stabilization, with real estate expected to recover and fiscal policies likely to support gradual economic improvement [8] Group 2: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - In 2024, wind power installations reached a record high of 79.34 GW, an increase of 3.44 GW from 2023, while solar power installations totaled 277.17 GW, a year-on-year growth of 28% [10][11] - The renewable energy sector is projected to continue growing, with expectations for wind power installations in 2025 to reach between 105 to 115 GW [11] - The public utility sector's performance is mixed, with thermal power showing resilience, while green energy faces challenges due to market pressures [12][13] Group 3: Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical sector showed stability, with the medical index rising by 0.07% and a notable increase in the number of stocks performing well, such as Jianyou Co. and Nanjing Weisheng [16][17] - The demand for new heart failure therapies is significant, with the market for heart failure drugs expected to grow, exemplified by the global sales of the drug Noxintor projected to reach $7.82 billion in 2024 [18] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to see a rebound in 2025, driven by innovation and an aging population, with specific focus on medical devices and innovative drugs [19][21]