Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations with a net profit of 16.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, surpassing the forecast of 15-15.5 billion yuan [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 28.025 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.20% [1] - Revenue growth was driven by improved water inflow and a favorable power generation structure leading to higher average electricity prices [1] - Financial expenses and investment income contributed positively to the growth momentum, with interest expenses decreasing significantly [1] - The company's stock price performance is closely linked to credit spreads, indicating a need to monitor changes in credit conditions [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1, the company generated 120.618 billion kWh of electricity, a 16.86% increase year-on-year, while Q3 saw a generation of 115.196 billion kWh, up 15.05% year-on-year [1] - Revenue for H1 grew by 12.38%, while Q3 revenue increased by 17.27% year-on-year, primarily due to higher electricity prices [1] - The company’s financial expenses for H1 were 5.704 billion yuan, down 0.676 billion yuan from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 33.59 billion, 35.235 billion, and 36.982 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 19, and 18 [3] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.13% in 2024, increasing slightly in subsequent years [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Fruquintinib has significant overseas market potential, with sales peak expectations raised to over $1.5 billion [4][19] - Fruquintinib has been approved in major pharmaceutical markets including China, the US, Europe, and Japan for the treatment of colorectal cancer [2][6] - The competitive landscape is favorable, with Fruquintinib showing superior efficacy and safety compared to competitors [4][17] Summary by Sections Market Approval and Partnerships - Fruquintinib has received approvals in major markets for colorectal cancer treatment, with Takeda Pharmaceuticals holding overseas rights since January 2023, including an upfront payment of $400 million and high double-digit sales royalties [2][6] Patient Population and Clinical Data - There is a large patient population for colorectal cancer, with over 1.9 million new cases globally in 2022. Fruquintinib was included in the NCCN guidelines just one week after its US launch [3][13][14] Sales Performance and Projections - Fruquintinib's sales in the first three quarters of 2024 reached $203 million, with expectations for significant growth as it gains market share in the US and Europe [19][22] - The drug's pricing strategy in the US reflects confidence in its market potential, with a price of $25,200 per box, significantly higher than in China [19] Clinical Efficacy and Safety - Fruquintinib demonstrates superior clinical outcomes compared to Regorafenib and TAS-102, with better overall survival (mOS) and progression-free survival (mPFS) rates [17][18] - Common adverse effects are manageable, making Fruquintinib a safer option compared to its competitors [17] Future Development and Strategy - Ongoing clinical trials are exploring Fruquintinib's use in frontline settings, which could further solidify its position in the market [29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to stabilize and rebound in Q4 2024, with a focus on structural high-growth segments and stocks [3][29] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, indicating a significant divergence in growth rates, with innovative drugs showing strong trends while traditional chemical drugs face challenges [2][9] - The overall PE valuation for the pharmaceutical sector is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [29][30] Summary by Sections Market Performance Analysis - From October 28 to November 1, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.68%, while the pharmaceutical index dropped by 2.90% [1] - The number of rising stocks in the pharmaceutical sector was 127, while 364 stocks declined during the same period [1] - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical index has decreased by 11.74%, ranking second to last among all sectors [3][15] Sub-sector Performance - The report notes that the pharmaceutical commercial sector increased by 1.4%, while other sectors like medical devices and biological products saw declines of 4.0% and 4.4%, respectively [1][18] - Year-to-date performance shows that chemical raw materials and traditional Chinese medicine have experienced relatively smaller declines compared to biological products and medical services [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors expected to rebound in 2025, such as medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine [3][29] - Specific stocks to watch include: 1. For overseas expansion: Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others [3][30] 2. For innovative drugs and devices: Hengrui Medicine, Hutchison China MediTech, and others [3][30] 3. For domestic substitution: KAILI Medical, Aohua Endoscopy, and others [3][30] 4. For aging and outpatient consumption: Yuyue Medical, Kunming Pharmaceutical, and others [3][30] 5. For high-barrier industries: Humanwell Healthcare, Enhua Pharmaceutical, and others [3][30] 6. For small but high-quality stocks: Baiyang Pharmaceutical, Pumen Technology, and others [3][30] Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2024, public funds' holdings in the pharmaceutical sector decreased, with pharmaceutical theme funds holding a total market value of 304.9 billion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of total public fund holdings [2][12]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 04 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 理性。重点关注三方面：1）AI 对于传统业务的赋能，带来传统业务的营收和利润的提升；2）云业务板 块受益 AI 需求拉动；3）资本开支的节奏。本季度云业务方面，微软/谷歌/亚马逊同比分别增长 20%/35%/19%，环比分别增长 1.3%/10%/4%，均受益于 AI 对其的拉动，但是受益于 OpenAI 而存在先 发优势的微软 Azure 增速指引开始下滑，同时 AI 对 Azure 的拉动本季度与上季度持平。资本开支除了亚 马逊以外，其余三家增速均出现回落，而对于四季度以及明年的指引都没有特别超出市场预期，云厂商继 续在资本开支与 ROI 之间进行权衡。 联系人 郑冰倩 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块行情回顾：本周（2024/10/28 至 2024/11/01）美股科技股回调 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yunlu Co., Ltd. (688190.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 1.388 billion yuan (up 6.5% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 263 million yuan (up 10.3% year-on-year) [1] - The new production line for amorphous materials, which reached full capacity in August, is expected to contribute to growth [2] - The demand for amorphous materials is driven by favorable policies and high growth in industries such as power distribution, photovoltaics, data centers, rail transportation, new energy vehicles, and home appliances [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.388 billion yuan, with a net profit of 263 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 252 million yuan [1] - In Q3 alone, the revenue was 478 million yuan (up 5% year-on-year and up 2.1% quarter-on-quarter), with a net profit of 96 million yuan (up 29.7% year-on-year and up 5% quarter-on-quarter) [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 365 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 503 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.07%, 15.34%, and 19.42% [3][4] Market Outlook - The amorphous alloy sector is expected to benefit from the favorable market conditions for distribution transformers, while the nano-crystalline alloy and soft magnetic powder core segments are anticipated to open new growth avenues [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic amorphous alloy market, benefiting from the increasing demand in various sectors [3] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 27, 24, and 20 respectively [3] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 1.855 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.377 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.70%, 14.14%, and 12.24% [4][8]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 11 月 04 日 经济企稳的可能性上升 ——10 月 PMI 数据点评 投资要点： 制造业 PMI 改善。10 月制造业 PMI 时隔 6 个月重回荣枯线以上至 50.1%，较上月 上升 0.3 个百分点，主要分类指数均有所改善。其中，生产指数、新订单指数创近 6 个月新高，分别提升至 52.0%和 50.0%。原材料库存指数提升至 48.2%，为近一年 来高点；从业人员指数略微增长至 48.40%，为自 2023 年 5 月以来最高值。受近期 部分大宗商品涨价等影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数明显上升。大 型企业 PMI 指数改善，但小型企业 PMI 指数有所恶化。 联系人 非制造业 PMI 表现分化。10 月份非制造业商务活动指数为 50.2%，比上月上升 0.2pct，非制造业景气水平小幅回升。非制造业价格端和需求端上升更为明显，投入 品价格和销售价格指数均上升 2.4pct 分别至 50.6%和 48.50%；分行业看，建筑业 商务活动指数略降，服务业商务活动指数微升。 10 月份综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.8%，较上 ...

证券研究报告 为 189.5 点；油轮/气体船船价指数环比持平；散货船船价指数下降 1.1%。当 月集装箱船价指数环比持平，为 117.4 点。 快递物流： 1）顺丰 Q3 利润率再度提升，通达系 Q3 业绩稳健增长。顺丰控股 2024 年 Q3 归母净利润为 28.1 亿元，同比+34.6%，归母净利率为 3.9%，同比+0.6 个百分 点；2024 年 Q3 公司速运物流收入同比+7.6%，与 H1 基本持平，供应链及国 际收入同比+27.22%，高于 H1 的 8.1%；成本管控或延续 Q2 以来的超预期表 现，坚持精益化资源规划与成本管控，有效带动利润率改善。通达系圆通、韵 达、申通 2024 年 Q3 归母净利润分别为 9.4 亿、3.7 亿、2.1 亿，分别同比增长 18%、24%、7761%；单票净利润分别为 0.14 元、0.06 元、0.04 元，分别环 比-0.02 元、-0.04 元、-0.01 元，2024 年 Q3 各家量增速均超行业，但淡季及 价格竞争导致单票利润下滑，总体实现利润稳健增长。 2）化工物流 Q3 业绩综述：化工需求疲软，静待行业景气修复。1）密尔克卫 Q3 实现营业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of renewable energy substitution as a key approach to achieving carbon peak goals, highlighting various sectors such as metallurgy and public buildings for electric energy replacement [3][4] - The guidance issued by the National Energy Administration aims to significantly increase renewable energy consumption, projecting consumption levels of 1.1 billion tons in 2025 and 1.5 billion tons in 2030, which is an increase of 100 million tons from previous plans [2][3] - The report identifies investment opportunities in green electricity operators and green hydrogen sectors, recommending specific companies for investment [4] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Goals - The report outlines that renewable energy consumption is expected to reach 1.1 billion tons by 2025 and 1.5 billion tons by 2030, with a projected share of about 25% of total energy consumption by 2030 [2][3] Key Investment Opportunities - Focus on green electricity operators, with recommendations for companies such as Longyuan Power, Datang Renewable, and China Power, which are expected to benefit from the green certificate and carbon market mechanisms [4] - Attention is also drawn to the green hydrogen and electric energy substitution sectors, with suggested companies including Dongfang Electric and Huaguang Huaneng [4] Mechanisms for Promoting Renewable Energy - The report discusses the establishment of a green certificate system to facilitate renewable energy consumption and its integration with the national carbon market, which is expected to drive the underlying demand for renewable energy [3][4] - Encouragement of integrated projects that combine renewable energy generation, storage, and consumption to enhance local utilization of renewable resources [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 19.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.052 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [3] - The decline in nuclear power generation was primarily due to unexpected maintenance at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant, while renewable energy generation saw a significant increase of 48.2% year-on-year [3] - The company has completed 80.5% of its renewable energy installation plan, with a total installed capacity of 24.15 million kilowatts as of September 2024 [3] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or planned, ensuring stable long-term growth in installed capacity [3] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, announcing a three-year dividend plan and a special dividend proposal [3] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 10.97 billion, 11.53 billion, and 11.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 5.2%, and 3.8% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17, 17, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [3] - The projected dividend yield for 2024-2026 is 2.0%, 2.1%, and 2.1% respectively, based on a historical dividend payout ratio of 35% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 9.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 895 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.41% [3] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the contraction of low-margin new energy integration business, which saw a revenue of 999 million yuan in H1 2024 [3] - The overall gross margin for Q3 2024 reached 24.52%, the highest quarterly value in recent years, due to the low-margin business contraction [3] - The company is expected to see concentrated deliveries in the DC transmission sector over the next year, with significant projects already underway [5] - The company has secured contracts worth 1.55 billion yuan in 2023 for ultra-high voltage projects, which will support future revenue growth [5] - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.19 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.81 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.2%, 35.8%, and 12.3% [5] Financial Summary - As of November 1, 2024, the closing price of the stock is 31.01 yuan, with a market capitalization of 31.595 billion yuan [2] - The company reported a total asset-liability ratio of 47.18% and a net asset value per share of 11.13 yuan [2] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 16.692 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.16% [6] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 1.188 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.16% [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 20.09% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 8.62% [8]