证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 05 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 美股年终流动性挤压缓解 加密与核电板块反弹 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（24/12/30-25/1/3） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 海外 AI：本周 KAP 旗下 Inkai 临时停产，西方铀矿供给收缩，同时叠加美国财政部明确了具有退役风险的核电 站生产氢气可以获得税收抵免，核电及铀矿板块反弹。本周 KAP 宣布暂停合资公司 Inkai LLP 的生产活动，原 因在于所需文件延迟提交，未在 2024 年年底获得相关国家当局的批准。西方国家铀供给可能再次缩紧。KAP 预 计 JV Inkai LLP 停产不会对于公司 2025 年生产计划产生任何重大影响，公司预计将在未来几周内向哈萨 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 05 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（24/12/30-25/1/3） 投资要点： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧风险，政策变化风险，行业需求不及预期风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：12 月 30 日至 1 月 3 日，沪深 300 指数下跌 5.17%；医药生物(申 万)指数下跌 5.56%。从本周市场表现来看，医药整体随市场呈普跌趋势，个股表现亦有 加大分化，热景生物等早期创新药资产表现突出，九典制药因担心竞争格局恶化，跌幅 超过 20%。展望后市，我们认为医药已呈现多重底信号，2025 年医药有望边际好转， 结构性机会或值得期待。建议关注：1）2025 年有望板块反转的医疗设备板块，包括开 立医疗、联影医疗、华大智造、海泰新光、美好医疗等；2）集采落地、业务复苏的中药 板块，包括昆药集团、太极集团、同仁堂、马应龙、盘龙药业等；3）医药最为明确的方 向创新药，前期调整较为充分，建议关注和黄医药、翰森制药、益方生物、恒瑞医药、 迪哲药业、泽璟制药、信立 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media and internet industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming CES (Consumer Electronics Show) from January 7 to 10, 2025, in Las Vegas is highlighted as an important event to observe AI technology developments [4][5] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of content and channel changes, with a focus on the progress of WeChat mini-stores, the expansion of card and trendy toy formats, and the promotion of quality films during the Spring Festival [4] - The report suggests that AI technology is rapidly evolving, creating new application scenarios, and recommends focusing on companies that embrace new technologies and have advantages in data, users, and application scenarios [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share market saw declines from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 5.55% and the media sector down by 9.43%, ranking 26th among all industries [10][16] AI and Application Development - The report indicates that AI technology is becoming a transformative force in production, optimizing industrial processes and enhancing product efficiency [5] - Companies such as Kunlun Wanwei, Focus Technology, and others are recommended for their potential in the AI sector [5] Card and Trendy Toy Sector - The upcoming IPO of Bluku is expected to reignite market interest in the "Guzi Economy," with recommendations for companies involved in card and trendy toy industries [6] - Companies like Yaoji Technology and Pop Mart are highlighted for their potential in this sector [6] Internet Sector - Major internet companies like Tencent and Alibaba are noted for their resilience in performance and strategic adjustments to enhance shareholder returns [6] - The WeChat mini-store is identified as a significant product proposition in the e-commerce landscape [7] Gaming Sector - The report stresses the importance of new game product cycles and suggests monitoring the performance of key new game launches [8] - Companies such as Tencent and NetEase are recommended for their strong positions in the gaming market [8] Film Sector - The report anticipates a recovery in viewing demand and box office performance in 2025, driven by quality film supply [8] - Companies involved in the production and distribution of key films are recommended for investment [8] Publishing and State-Owned Media - The report highlights the potential for state-owned publishing companies to explore new business models and the ongoing consolidation in the media industry [9] - Companies like Anhui Publishing and Southern Media are suggested for their growth prospects [9] AI Investment Events - A total of 14 AI investment events were reported, indicating strong investor interest in AI and high-tech sectors [30] - Notable investments include a strategic investment of 1 billion RMB in Lingying Intelligent, focusing on high-end medical imaging equipment [30] Game Performance - The report provides insights into the top-performing mobile games in China, with "Honor of Kings" maintaining a strong position [32] - The performance of casual and hyper-casual games on platforms like WeChat and QQ is also highlighted [35][37] Film and TV Performance - The total box office for the week was 1.031 billion RMB, with "The Murder 3" and "Little Me" leading the box office [42] - The report notes a total of 620 million views for TV dramas, with "The Great Decree" leading in viewership [45]

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 负电价对新能源影响分析，从德国说起 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——公用事业 2025 年第 1 周周报（20250103） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 电力：以德国为例 分析负电价成因及对新能源影响 近期德国负电价问题引发关注，据时代周报报道，德国 2024 年负电价市场达到 468 小时，同比增加 60%，本文将对负电价产生的原因以及可能产生的影响进行分析。 联系人 首先解释负电价出现的机制。在电力市场中发电侧和用户侧交易时通常会先签订中 长期电力交易合同，但由于发电侧新能源等电源出力的不可控以及用户侧实际用电 的不可控等因素，实际的发电量或用电量与中长期合同的约定电量会发生偏差，此 时便要引入电力现货市场，以实时发电量和用电量为基础进行交易，一旦供给超出 预期或需求低于预期，则可能导致供大于求进而导致负电价的出现。负电价并不意 味着发电厂一定在"贴钱发电"，但对中长期市场会产生一定影响。 可再生能源增多或用电量减少通常是负电价产生的主要原因。过去几年德国的新 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 05 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 2024 年北交所成交金额近 3 万亿元，新股首日涨幅均值 218% ——北交所周观察第八期（20250105） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2024 年北交所成交金额近 3 万亿元，社会服务板块领涨。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日， 北交所总市值 5387 亿元，市值中位数 15 亿元，其中 4 家公司市值超过百亿，11 家 公司市值超过 50 亿元。北证 50 指数在 2024 年 11 月 8 日最高触及 1469.57 点，创 下历史新高。在经历了 2024 年 9-11 月三连涨后，2024 年 12 月北证 50 指数创下 了较大的回撤，单月下跌 19%，但整体 Q4 指数上涨 18%。从成交情况来看，我们 认为 2024 年是北交所流动性改善元 ...

证券研究报告 医药生物 | 化学制药 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 03 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | 01 | 02 | 月 | | 2025 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 14.97 | | | | | 一 年 内 最 低 | 最 | 高 | / | | | | | | | 17.00/11.65 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 6,369.70 | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | | | 3,936.73 | | | 总股本（百万股） | | ...

煤炭开采 行业定期报告 证券研究报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 01 月 03 日 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 煤价急跌原因浅析：需求扰动叠加进口煤冲击 投资评级： 看好（首次） ——煤炭行业 2025 年第 1 月月报（20250103） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 煤价回顾：港口单价急跌近百元后暂时企稳。2024 年以来我国动力煤价格整体呈震荡下行态 势，但是进入 11 月中旬后，我国产地及港口煤价快速下跌，连带进口煤价格同步下跌。秦皇 岛 5500 大卡动力末煤单价跌幅近百元，12 月底价格出现小幅反弹，坑口价走势与港口价基 本同步。综合新闻媒体以及贸易网站观察来看，动力煤价格短期急跌超出市场预期。 原因初探：气温偏暖、政策时滞与进口冲击叠加。从港口库存来看，北方主流港 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the emerging satellite perovskite battery sector, which is expected to contribute to new growth opportunities [3][6] - The company has a strong patent portfolio in the satellite perovskite battery technology, indicating a competitive advantage in this field [6][12] Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 1,639 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.33% [5] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is 205 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 17.90% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.84 RMB in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.63 [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 10.67% in 2024, increasing to 14.27% by 2026 [5] Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 23.08 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 5,672.16 million RMB [2] - The stock has experienced a 52-week high of 25.59 RMB and a low of 13.82 RMB [2] Industry Context - The satellite internet sector is a key development area in China, with significant government initiatives aimed at expanding low Earth orbit satellite deployments [6] - The company is leveraging its technological advancements in perovskite solar cells, which are expected to outperform traditional solar technologies in space applications [6][9]

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 海外 2025年1月2日 大变局时代的核心资产：黄金、加密货币、铀 --2025年海外策略报告 证券分析师 姓名：郑嘉伟 资格编号：S1350523120001 邮箱：zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 姓名：于炳麟 资格编号：S1350524060002 邮箱：yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：郑冰倩 资格编号：S1350124050014 邮箱：zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 ◼ 大势判断：主要政见相互矛盾，后续"特朗普交易"将分化 ➢ 特朗普在竞选中胜出后，市场全面开启"特朗普交易"。特朗普的主要执政方针包括减税（利好股市）、贸易壁垒（财政增收）、强储备货币地位&弱货币汇率（强 势美元）、低利率（降低经济成本），以及扩大油气开采（降通胀），市场短期走出了强指数、强美元、降利率、低通胀的走势，仿佛特朗普的执政方针会无死角 实现。但客观的看，减税、降息、加关税以及弱美元都指向通胀，而财政收缩又带来了经济衰退的风险，如果不顺利，接下 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [2][13][15]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transformed into the semiconductor sector, which has opened up new growth potential. It has established two main business segments: chip distribution and self-developed products, enhancing its growth ceiling [1][29]. - The dual-driven strategy of "distribution + products" focuses on the development of the semiconductor field, with self-developed products expected to create a second growth curve [2][12][70]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships with major players like SK Hynix and MTK, which strengthens its distribution business and customer relationships [12][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Successful Transformation into Semiconductors - The company, originally established in 1998 as a manufacturer of washing machine clutches, has shifted its focus to the semiconductor industry since 2019, following a takeover by cornerstone capital [1][23]. - The transformation has led to a significant increase in revenue from the semiconductor business, while traditional business revenues have decreased [29]. 2. Distribution Business and Self-Developed Products - The distribution segment is deeply integrated with leading brands and has established strong customer relationships with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent [12][70]. - The self-developed product line, including enterprise-level SSDs and DRAM, is expected to see rapid growth, with projected revenues of 200 million, 400 million, and 800 million yuan from 2024 to 2026 [7][72]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 481 million, 529 million, and 653 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.38%, 9.87%, and 23.55% respectively [13][15]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated to be approximately 27, 25, and 20 for the years 2024 to 2026, indicating a valuation close to industry averages [13][15].