证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 逢高配置 [Table_Summary] ► 高波开局，利空情绪释放 新年第一周，债市经历了大幅的止盈或止损行情，这一现象在年初时 点，并不常见。异动背后，或多是情绪作祟，机构卖债的实际诉求可能并 非负债端出现了超预期波动，亦或是其他的短期用款需求。而是在 2025 年多轮调整行情的疤痕效应下，债市投资者对于眼前的各种不确定性或更 加敏感，普遍倾向于提前卸掉久期风险，年初轻装上阵。波动始于情绪， 也容易终于情绪，因而 8-9 日的债市初步修复，其实也并没有强利多逻辑 作为支撑。 观察机构久期变化，以代表性较强的利率债基久期中枢为参考，1 月 以来稳定版本（40 日滚动窗口）的久期中枢测算结果，从 3.58 年渐进回 落至 3.37 年，位于 2025 年以来 4.8%的较低分位数，且与低点 3.31 年相 差无几。灵敏版本（15 日滚动窗口）的久期中枢测算结果为 3.46 年，同 处于 2025年以来的地分位数 14.1%。两组数据均可反映，债市2026年开 局，便已经处于低风险状态，机构的担忧情 ...

星链引领星间激光通信 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 星链引领星间激光通信 Starlink（星链）作为 SpaceX 旗下全球领先的低轨卫星互联 网项目，2025 年进入规模化运营与全球化扩张的关键阶段。截至 2025 年底，其在轨卫星数量接近 1 万颗，覆盖 140 余个国家和地 区，用户规模突破 800 万，年度营收预计达 100-110 亿美元，首次 超越火箭发射业务成为 SpaceX 核心收入来源。当前全球低轨卫星 产业进入加速阶段，SpaceX、欧洲 IRIS² 、俄罗斯"球体"等星 座计划催生了对高速激光通信终端的迫切需求。 目前，激光通信取得许多重大突破。国内成都电子科技大学、 北京大学、武汉大学、哈尔滨工业大学等研究机构进行了激光通信 技术研究，目前处于单项技术研究和关键技术模拟验证阶段。激光 通讯的优势在于其高传输速率、抗电磁干扰能力以及能够绕过大 气湍流造成的干扰，保持通信的稳定性。激光通信技术的普及，将 为战场通信提供新的可能性。这种通信方式不易受干扰，且隐蔽性 高，即使在无线电通讯无法使用的情况下，仍能保持通信畅通。 星间激光 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Tencent launched an AI mini-program growth plan to accelerate the implementation of AI applications within its ecosystem, providing developers with a year-long cloud development resource, free AI computing power, data analysis, traffic incentives, and better commercialization support [2][22] - The initiative aims to lower development barriers and encourage developers to quickly create and operate AI mini-programs within the WeChat ecosystem, enhancing user experience and driving growth in advertising, cloud services, and payment sectors [2][22] - Regulatory authorities have initiated an antitrust investigation into the food delivery industry, addressing issues of intense competition characterized by subsidies and traffic control, which have negatively impacted profits and merchant operations [3][23] - The intervention is expected to alleviate short-term profit pressures on platforms and shift competition focus towards delivery efficiency, merchant empowerment, and user experience, fostering a healthier industry development [3][23] - Current investment opportunities include leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry benefiting from policy incentives, and the film and cultural tourism sectors supported by consumer policies [6][23] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week are "The Hidden Kill" with 54.525 million yuan (23.90% market share), "Avatar 3" with 47.237 million yuan (20.70%), and "The Legend of the Qin" with 45.543 million yuan (20.00%) [25][26] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force," while the top three Android games by popularity are "Heart Town," "Duck Duck Goose," and "Ghost Valley" [28][29] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "The Sun is Like Me" (82.9), "Carefree" (82.3), and "Tea Bone" (80.6) [31][32] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcast index of 75.7, followed by "Cosmic Sparkle Please Note" and "Voice of the Flowing Season" [33][34] - The top animation series is "Immortal Reversal" with a viewership index of 225.6, followed by "The Mortal Cultivation" and "Perfect World Animation" [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector has shown significant improvement, with the Insurance II index rising by 19.5% and the Hong Kong Insurance index by 13.5% from December 4, 2025, to January 9, 2026 [1] - Major insurance companies have reported strong new business growth, with some top firms seeing over 70% year-on-year growth in new policies during the first three days of 2026 [2] - The overall premium income for life insurance from January to November 2025 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the liability side of the business [2] - The decline in deposit rates and the scarcity of large-denomination time deposits are expected to drive more funds into insurance products, which offer relatively higher returns [2] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - China Pacific Insurance led A-share gains with a 32.1% increase, followed by New China Life at 25.4%, China Life at 12.5%, and others [1][8] - In H-shares, New China Life also led with a 30.9% increase, while China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance followed with 23.6% and 21.7% respectively [1][8] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The average Price to Embedded Value (PEV) for major A-share insurers ranges from 0.76 to 0.93, while H-share PEVs range from 0.54 to 0.76, indicating that valuations are still below historical averages [4] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) growth for key companies, with China Ping An expected to reach an EPS of 8.08 in 2026, while China Pacific Insurance is projected at 4.80 [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for leading insurers due to improved fundamentals and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life [4]

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 中美加速，"十万星级"时刻来临！ [Table_Title2] 计算机 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 中国在 2025 年 12 月向国际电信联盟（ITU）集中申请超 20 万颗低轨卫星的频率与轨道资源，申请规模显著高于 此前国内单一星座以"万星级"为上限的规划体量，我国在低轨资源布局上正由阶段性示范迈向长期、系统性容 量占位的新阶段。与之相对，SpaceX 在既有 Starlink 星座基础上，进一步新增约 7,500 颗卫星部署计划，延续 其通过持续扩容强化网络密度、系统冗余与服务能力的战略路径。两者在数量级与节奏上的同步变化，反映出全 球主要参与者已形成共识：低轨卫星竞争不再局限于单一星座或阶段性建设，而是围绕轨道与频谱资源、工程化 交付能力及长期运营能力展开的综合博弈。 核心观点: ► 低轨卫星正式迈入"超大规模星座"竞争阶段，全球话语权争夺加速 中国新增 20 万颗卫星频轨资源的申请，标志着卫星资源申请已上升到国家战略层面。轨道和频率均是不可再生且 高度稀 ...

Market Review - The A-share market started strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record 16 consecutive days of gains, reflecting a rising market risk appetite, with growth and small-cap styles outperforming [2][3] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, with margin trading activity also high, as the margin balance surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2][4] - Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, brain-computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion have shown significant performance, alongside rising prices in related commodities like non-ferrous metals [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bull market may continue, with the A-share market entering a spring buying window, supported by better-than-expected PMI and inflation data from December [3][5] - The influx of external funds and increased willingness of market participants to invest are expected to sustain market momentum, with notable inflows from financing and foreign capital [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming events in the tech sector, particularly around the Spring Festival, which could further enhance market risk appetite [3][5] Sector Allocation - Focus on the expansion of themes in the technology sector, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, robotics, domestic substitution, and nuclear fusion [5] - Beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" trend and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, are also highlighted as areas of interest [5]

[Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 10 日 证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Title] 税期未至，资金面依然平稳 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：年初，资金面如期转松 1 月 5-9 日，跨年后，尽管月初央行大额回笼跨年资金投放，但在财政支出的 作用下，资金利率自发回归低位。周一周二 R001 稳定在 1.33%附近，然而随着连 续回笼造成的流动性缺口压力不断集聚，资金利率自周中开始缓步上行。即便周四 周五回笼压力缓释，央行操作转向净投放（分别净投放 99、340 亿元），但上行趋 势依旧未改，于周五升至 1.35%，不过整体仍运行于 OMO利率下方。7天资金利率 走势与之分化，周一至周三 R007 由 1.45%连续升至 1.53%后，随着买断式逆回购 等额续作落地，利率重回下行通道，周五收于 1.52%。 ►展望：税期扰动之前，资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松 展望下周（1月 12-16日），资金常规占用水平降至低位，税期的影响预计在16 日（周五）之后逐步显现。在此之前，资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松，隔夜利率 围绕 1.35%附近波 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Title] 节后新房成交季节性回落，二手房平稳 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 10 日 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 注：考虑到元旦假期成交低于周末假期，本周（1 月 2-8 日）统计中，假期（2-3 日）数据采用工作日（4- 8 日）日均成交值的 50%进行估算调整。 1）周度：新房成交显著回落 新房市场年末冲量后显著回落。受 2025 年末房企集中冲量导致的高基数效应消退影响，本周一线城市新 房成交环比大幅回落 62%，当前成交规模仅为 2025 年周度高点的 36%。分城市来看，四大一线城市成交环比 均现深度调整：北京、上海环比分别回落 57%和 56%，广州、深圳降幅更为显著，分别下滑 70%和 78%。同 比维度，新房市场延续负增长，北京同比下滑59%降幅最大，深圳（-56%）、广州（-39%）、上海（-30%）紧 随其后。 二手房市场整体环比降温，而深圳二手房逆势回升。京沪深三城本周二手房合计成交环比下滑 26%，约 为 2025 年成交高点的 68%。城市间表现呈现分化，其中深圳二手房表现亮眼， ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 非农平淡，Fed 6 月才降息的"小心思" 1 月 9 日，美国劳工部公布 25 年 12 月非农数据，非农就业人数增加 5 万人，预估增 7 万人，10-11 月合计 下修 7.6 万人。失业率 4.4%，市场预期 4.5%，前值也下修至 4.5%。时薪环比 0.33%，略快于前月的 0.24%。 本次非农数据并未改变既有"低裁员-低招聘"的模式，对市场影响不大。非农数据发布后的 15 分钟内，美 元小幅走弱约 0.1%，黄金上涨不到 0.3%，2 年期美债收益率上行 1bp 至 3.51%（其后上行至 3.53%或因密歇 根消费者信心超预期），10 年和 30 年收益率变化不大。 重点关注以下三点，第一，如何理解失业率下行？家庭调查与企业调查数据存在差别。失业率数据对应的 家庭调查统计 12 月就业人数增加了 23.2 万，对比企业调查数据就业仅增 5 万。12 月家庭调查统计的失业人数 下降了 27.8 万，4.6 万人退出劳动力市场。对应失业率下降 0.16%，劳动参与率下降 0.06% ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 17.14, with a median of 13.55 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.76, while the CSI 300 is at 13.70[9] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 48.59, with a maximum of 137.86[12] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.99, with a median of 10.32 and a maximum of 22.67[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.43, with a maximum of 65.18[61] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.55, with a maximum of 29.92[63] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.55, with a median of 21.17 and a maximum of 41.99[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 41.86, with a maximum of 75.53[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE (TTM) of 30.67, with a maximum of 34.70[93] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors have low PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation[23] - The computer and electronics sectors are at historically high PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation[23] - The pharmaceutical and construction sectors show low PB ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities[23]