证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 跨年行情如何逢低布局？三条配置主线值得重视 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周全球股指分化，美股科技股大跌，甲骨文、博通股价大幅回撤加剧投资者对 AI 泡沫的担忧，本 周五美国科技七姐妹指数、费城半导体指数分别下跌 1.1%和 5.1%。A 股市场风格分化，成长风格整体走强。主要 宽基指数中，北证 50、创业板指和科创 50 指领涨；微盘股指、红利指数和上证 50 指数领跌。一级行业方面，通 信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨；煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产领跌。大宗商品方面，本周白银价格继续加速 上涨，国内黑色系商品进一步走弱。外汇方面，美元指数下行，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率升破 7.06。 ·市场展望：跨年行情逢低布局，国内两大重要会议指引市场主线。近期海外美联储议息会议和国内政治局会 议、中央经济工作会议相继落地，且整体基调符合市场预期，权益市场风险偏好获得支撑。时隔一个月，A 股日成 交额再度回到 2 万亿元上方，换手率边际抬升，显示市 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 大运载时代：百箭争流，共绘天疆新图景 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、力箭一号和长征十二号发射验证国内火箭大运 力能力 2025 年 12 月，我国商业航天两大运力平台接连完成 重要发射，验证了本土火箭的大运力能力。力箭一号 以"一箭九星"方式成功发射，标志着该民营固体火 箭进入规模化运营阶段。其 500 公里太阳同步轨道运 力达 1.5 吨，运载系数达 1.12%，达到同级别印度火 箭的四倍以上。凭借高性价比优势，已累计将 84 颗 卫星（总重超 11 吨）送入太空。长征十二号作为我 国最强单芯级火箭，近地轨道运力不低于 12 吨，首 次验证了大规模星座组网发射能力。该火箭采用泵后 摆发动机技术，在 3.8 米直径箭体内实现了四发并 联，支撑了大运力光杆构型。其 5.2 米大直径整流罩 为各类载荷提供了充足空间，成为未来星座建设的主 力运载平台。 谷神星二号（遥一箭）将于 2025 年 12 月 15 日在酒 泉发射中心首飞，采用"三级固体+液体上面级"的 ...

再次，2026 年摊余债基集中开放，预计规模超 6000 亿元，如果部 分产品转为信用风格，或提振对应期限信用债需求，更利好中高评 级 5 年、3 年左右品种。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 产业债，低利差下的结构博弈 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之七 [Table_Summary] ►2026 年，信用债需求或放缓 需求端，增量资金或放缓。首先，存款利率下降或继续推动居民资 产向理财产品迁移，2026 年理财规模有望延续稳步增长。但平滑净 值手段整改完毕，叠加低利差环境，理财配置信用债的占比或难上 升 。2025Q2 理财配置信用债占比为 38.8%，较 2024Q4 下降 2.3pct。 其次，基金销售费用新规对信用债影响较大的是短债、中短债基金 的赎回压力。以 25Q3 纯债基金持仓债券规模为基础，假设短债、 中短债基金赎回比例在 20%-40%，中长债基金、指数型基金赎回比 例在 10%-20%，涉及债券规模约 1.04-2.07 万亿元，其中信用债规 模约 3309-6618 亿元。 证券研究报告|固收研究 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 ►策略：震荡中枢上升，轮动框架不变 结构风险酝酿&资金参与意愿不低的情况下，板块行情可能继 续轮动。哪些板块可能成为后续的轮动项？新能源仍然是博 弈轮动的首选，红利&消费则是博弈高低切的方向。 新能源逻辑相对扎实（储能市场化&海外需求&AI 电力需求）， 但在 11 月 21 日大跌后，行情始终未迎来修复。AI 算力的大 涨缓解了市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧，这也意味着 AI 电力需求的逻 辑并未受到冲击，可以考虑布局，等待反弹行情。 红利行情从 11 月 14 日开始走弱，截至 12 月 12 日，中证红利 已下跌 6.47%。从 924 以来的历史经验来看，潜在跌幅或有 限。同时，12 月红利板块通常占优，背后是机构资金年底资 产再平衡&险资增配，意味着红利品种存在反弹空间。 消费同样是滞后修复的板块，其阶段性行情可能出现在科技 轮动缺位的情况下。关注带有科技色彩的消费品种，如在 12 月初短暂上涨的消费电子、端侧 AI，有望加入板块轮动中。 转债方面，近日，蓝天转债受控股股东股权冻结影响，价格 剧烈波动，受到市场广泛关注 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows mixed trends. New home sales ended a four - week increase and declined, while second - hand home sales stabilized. The year - on - year decline in sales volume is gradually narrowing, indicating a market in the process of bottom - grinding [1][2]. - Policy focus is shifting from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Situation - **New Homes**: 38 - city new home sales volume was 2.64 million square meters this week (Dec 5 - 11), a 9% week - on - week decline after four consecutive weeks of growth. The absolute scale is still within the recent range, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase after a pulse - like recovery [1]. - **Second - hand Homes**: 15 - city second - hand home sales volume stabilized at 2.14 million square meters this week, with a basically flat week - on - week change. The four - week sales volume is stable, showing stronger resilience than new homes [1]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 33% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3 percentage points. 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline also narrowing by 3 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Monthly Situation - **New Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 29% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 6 percentage points compared to November, showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Second - hand Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 14 percentage points compared to October and November, facing significant short - term correction pressure [2]. 3.3 Performance in First - tier Cities - **New Homes**: After two consecutive weeks of growth, first - tier city new home sales volume decreased by 6% week - on - week. There is significant inter - city differentiation. Beijing showed strong recovery momentum, while Shanghai decreased, Shenzhen rebounded from the bottom, and Guangzhou continued to weaken [3]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The combined second - hand home sales volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 4% week - on - week, mainly driven by a 20% rebound in Shenzhen. Currently, sales volumes in these three cities are stable at 73 - 79% of the annual high, significantly stronger than the new home market [3]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: Affected by the high base last year, new home sales volume decreased by 37% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 3 percentage points. Only Shanghai had a 13% year - on - year increase. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 31% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [4]. 3.4 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 9% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline narrowed by 11 percentage points to - 26%, showing signs of bottom - up recovery. Second - hand home sales were relatively stable, with a basically flat week - on - week change [5]. - **Third - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 13% week - on - week after three consecutive weeks of recovery, and the year - on - year decline widened to 42%. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 10% week - on - week but remained at 83% of the annual high [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **Overall**: From Dec 1 - 7, the decline in second - hand housing listing prices in all tiers of cities widened, with a week - on - week decline of 0.55% - 0.58%. Second - tier cities had a larger year - on - year price adjustment, with a decline of 8.61% [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shenzhen's listing prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks, showing signs of bottom - stabilization. The other three cities saw an expanded decline. Guangzhou had the deepest year - on - year decline at 16.62% [7]. - **Second - tier Cities**: Chengdu and Fuzhou had a slight week - on - week increase, while Xi'an had high price volatility and was still in the process of finding a bottom [7]. 3.6 Policy Observation - The central economic work conference's tone on real estate has shifted from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8].

Group 1: Overnight Rates and Liquidity - The overnight rate DR001 has reached a new low of 1.27%, breaking the previous year's lower limit of 1.30%[1] - The average overnight rate R001 decreased from 1.37% to 1.35% during the week of December 8-12[1] - The liquidity in the market remains stable, with a net withdrawal of 0.8 trillion yuan in the open market for December[20] Group 2: Tax Period and Market Outlook - The upcoming tax period (December 15-17) is expected to cause some liquidity fluctuations, but the average tax payment over the past three years is around 1.32 trillion yuan, indicating manageable pressure[2] - The central bank plans to conduct a net injection of 200 billion yuan through a 6-month reverse repurchase agreement on December 15, which may alleviate some liquidity pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - From December 15-19, a total of 7.485 trillion yuan will mature in the open market, with 6.685 trillion yuan from reverse repos, which is relatively low compared to the median of 10.21 trillion yuan for 2025[3] - The government bond net payment is projected to be -839 billion yuan for the same period, primarily due to the deferral of 1.96 trillion yuan in bonds to the following week[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.65%, an increase of 1.3 basis points from the previous week[6] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 940.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -120.5 billion yuan during December 8-12[6]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 美股科技股回调，全球多数市场波动加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股科技股出现明显回调，全球多 数市场波动趋于加大。由于市场对于 AI 泡沫的担忧加大，美联 储降息表态偏鹰派，特朗普签署统一人工智能监管规则，叠加 日本央行行长植田和男表示到 2027 年会出现多次加息，本周美 股科技股回调幅度较大；博通、甲骨文、闪迪等美股科技股在 本周内的交易日中出现单日大幅回撤。目前 TAMAMA 科技指 数市盈率仍然有 36.98；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 45.72； 纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 42.01，美股科技股相关指数估值 进一步升高。由于美股科技股估值水平较高，美股科技指数中 期仍容易出现进一步的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍 有 40.22，依然处于高于 40 的高位区间，仍然距离 1999 年 12 月的历史高点较为接近。由于特朗普的经济政策存在较大的不 确定性，美联储宽松政策计划节奏不及市场预期， ...

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.14, with a historical average of 25.72[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.04, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 13.16[9] - The growth of the A-share market is influenced by both earnings changes and valuation changes, with contributions to index fluctuations analyzed[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.93, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.72, indicating a significant valuation compared to other sectors[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.04, with historical values ranging from a minimum of 11.21 to a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE (TTM) of 42.03, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages[89] Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels[23] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, is experiencing high PE levels, indicating potential overvaluation[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[103]

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 供需优化，提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对 经济工作的定调，部署 2026 年经济工作的八个大重点任务。 · "五个必须"，是目标也是手段。本次会议处于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的交汇点，在 肯定过去成绩的同时，新形势下会议提出"五个必须"为新一年的经济工作定下基调，"必须充分 挖掘经济潜能"指向充分利用大国优势培育更多增长点、释放发展潜能；"必须坚持政策支持和改 革创新并举"对应政策要"短长结合"，确保实现稳中求进；"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得 好'"指向要统筹好活力与秩序的关系，充分激发市场活力；"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合"是对投资理念和方向的优化，突出改善民生的社会效益；"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"强调以内生的确定性应对外部的不确定。本次会议表现出更强的战略定力，强调当前经济发展 中的问题和挑战"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决 ...