[Table_Title] 全球多数市场将进入进一步调整阶段 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于特朗普贸易政策的反复和美国债务 问题，以及全球地缘问题和经济政策的不确定性，预计未来一 段时间全球多数市场将进入调整阶段。本周美股市场出现回 调，周内多个交易日波动偏多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率仍有 32，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈 率为 45.3，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比 较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.7，仍然临近 40 的偏高 位区间，由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加美股科技股新一轮技 术看点尚未出现，叠加特朗普政策的影响，美股科技股仍然容 易出现回调；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 容易出现进一步回 调；英伟达、微软、脸书、亚马逊等美股巨头由于最近估值上 升较快，预计存在回调消化的空间。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率 为 35.64，仍然明显高于历史平均数和中位数。由于美国经济政 策的不 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 全球多数市场将进入进一步调整阶段 1 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 美股市场一周表现：本周标普 500、纳斯达克指数、道琼斯工业 指数均下跌，跌幅分别为 2.61%、2.47%、2.47%。 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于特朗普贸易政策的反复和美国债务 问题，以及全球地缘问题和经济政策的不确定性，预计未来一 段时间全球多数市场将进入调整阶段。本周美股市场出现回 调，周内多个交易日波动偏多。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈 率仍有 32，仍然处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈 率为 45.3，仍然处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比 较大的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 39.7，仍然临近 40 的偏高 位区间，由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加美股科技股新一轮技 术看点尚未出现，叠加特朗普政策的影响，美股科技股仍然容 易出现回调；费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 容易出现进一步回 调；英伟达、微软、脸书、亚马逊等 ...

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 14.48, with a median of 13.37 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 12.56, while the CSI 300 is at 11.87[8] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 49.41, with a maximum of 137.86[12] Industry Valuation Levels - Non-bank, non-oil sectors show lower PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation, while sectors like computing and steel have higher PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation[21] - The banking sector's PB (LF) is at 0.56, while brokerage firms are at 1.24, indicating a relatively low valuation for banks[24] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.51, with a median of 10.23 and a maximum of 22.67[56] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher PE of 21.15, indicating a premium valuation compared to the broader market[62] U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 26.06, with a maximum of 41.99, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical averages[78] - The NASDAQ Index shows an even higher PE of 39.31, reflecting strong growth expectations[86] Comparative Valuation - Key Chinese concept stocks have a median PS of 7.50, with Alibaba at 2.08, indicating a significant disparity in valuations among major players[95] - Chinese banks have a median PB of 0.92, compared to U.S. banks like JPMorgan at 1.32, suggesting a valuation gap between the two markets[97]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 882 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 亚玛芬 Q1 业绩超预期，上调全年指引 纺织服装行业周报 [Table_Title2] 20250519-20250523 [Table_Summary] ► 主要观点： 本周滔搏发布FY2025年报，FY2025公司收入/归母净利 /经营性现金流分别为 270.13/12.86/37.55 亿元，同比增长 -6.6%/-41.9%/20.0%，归母净利下滑幅度高于收入主要由于 公司面对销售下滑带来的存货压力，加大整体促销力度、调 整线上线下销售结构影响导致毛利率下滑。经营现金流高于 净利主要由于存货减少、应收账款减少、有效的运营资金管 理。FY25 每股拟派发现金红利 0.02 元、特别股息 0.12 元，叠加中期股息 0.14 元，分红率为 135%，股息率为 8.75%。 本周 Deckers 公布 FY2025 全年业绩，公司 FY25 收入增 长 16.3% 至 49.86 亿美元，营运利润同比增加 27.1%至 11.79 亿美元。毛利率同增 2.3pct 至 57.9%，净 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a defensive stance in asset allocation, with both equity and bond markets showing signs of caution as investors await new information [2][3][4] Domestic Market Performance - On May 22, the domestic market saw a decline across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22% to 3380.19, and the CSI 300 Index down 0.06% to 3913.87 [1] - The bond market exhibited a mixed performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds rising by 1.2 basis points to 1.67%, while the yield on 30-year bonds fell by 0.1 basis points to 1.92% [2] Asset Class Review - The equity market experienced a slight pullback, particularly in small-cap stocks, while the banking sector showed strength with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.00% [2][6] - The report highlights a rotation in focus towards mid to long-term credit bonds, with yields on various 3-5 year credit products declining by 1-2 basis points [4][6] International Market Dynamics - The report notes volatility in overseas bond markets, particularly in long-term bonds, with yields on 30-year bonds in the UK, US, and Germany reaching highs before retreating [3] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of debt in developed economies are emphasized, particularly in light of fiscal expansion measures in the US and Japan's potential reduction in bond purchases [3] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report suggests that while small-cap stocks are under pressure, there remains a significant trading interest, indicating a potential for rebound strategies [7][9] - Defensive positioning is evident as the implied volatility in the market has increased, with the CSI 300 ETF IV Index rising by 5.01% [7][9] Sector Performance - The report identifies resilience in dividend-paying stocks, with the CSI Dividend Index only down 0.18%, suggesting a defensive allocation strategy among investors [7][9] - The banking sector is highlighted as a strong performer, with a notable increase in interest from funds, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [7][9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both experienced declines, with net inflows into Hong Kong stocks from southbound funds indicating mixed expectations for future performance [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported significant improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with a net profit increase of over 20 times year-on-year, primarily due to reduced credit impairment losses and lower operating expenses [2][3]. - The company has a strong order reserve, with a total of approximately 383 million yuan in hand orders and bid amounts as of March 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its services into Douyin's local life virtual live streaming and has undertaken multiple global virtual studio projects, enhancing its market position [4]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, marking 14 consecutive years of cash dividends [5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, but reported a net loss of 38.53 million yuan [2][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 185 million yuan, a 2.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.60 million yuan, reflecting a 2139.84% growth [2][3]. - The company expects revenues of 800 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 59 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 98 million yuan for the same years [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with a net profit increase of 2139.84% year-on-year, driven by reduced credit impairment losses and lower operating expenses [2][3]. - The company has a strong order reserve, with a total of approximately 383 million yuan in hand orders and bid amounts as of March 2025 [3]. - The company is expanding its services into Douyin's local life virtual live streaming, leveraging AIGC+XR technology to provide integrated virtual live streaming services [4]. - The company has a consistent dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, marking 14 consecutive years of cash dividends [5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, but reported a net loss of 38.53 million yuan [2][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated revenue of 185 million yuan, a 2.72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.60 million yuan [2]. - The company expects revenues of 800 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 59 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 98 million yuan [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in inventory management and continues to maintain high dividend payouts, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.02 CNY per share and a special dividend of 0.12 CNY, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 135% and a dividend yield of 8.75% [2][5] - The company faced a decline in revenue and net profit due to sales pressure and inventory challenges, leading to a significant promotional effort and adjustments in sales structure [2][4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales through a combination of platform e-commerce, content e-commerce, and private domain operations, which is expected to offset the decline in offline foot traffic [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and operating cash flow were 270.13 billion CNY, 12.86 billion CNY, and 37.55 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -41.9%, and +20.0% [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% due to increased promotional activities and adjustments in sales structure [4] Store and Sales Analysis - The number of stores decreased by 18.3% to 5020, while the average sales area per store increased by 7.2% [3] - Revenue from the main brand, other brands, joint venture fees, and e-sports was 233.11 billion CNY, 35.05 billion CNY, 1.46 billion CNY, and 0.52 billion CNY, respectively, with declines of 6.1%, 9.9%, 14.1%, and 32.4% year-on-year [3] Digital Transformation and Customer Engagement - The company has over 500 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 2300 mini-program stores, achieving significant online sales growth [3] - The company has developed an AI tool, "Dolphin AI," which has contributed nearly 100 million CNY in sales and improved content generation efficiency [3] Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in inventory and online sales strategies are expected to enhance revenue [5] - The company is optimistic about future growth with new partnerships and a focus on digital transformation [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in inventory management and continues to maintain high dividend payouts, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.02 CNY per share and a special dividend of 0.12 CNY, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 135% and a dividend yield of 8.75% [2][5] - The company is facing challenges with a decline in revenue and net profit due to sales pressure and inventory issues, but effective cash flow management has led to a positive operating cash flow [2][4] - The company is strategically optimizing its retail store structure and enhancing online sales through a combination of platform e-commerce, content e-commerce, and private domain operations [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Overview - For FY2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and operating cash flow were 270.13 billion CNY, 12.86 billion CNY, and 37.55 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -41.9%, and +20.0% [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% [4] Store and Sales Performance - The number of stores decreased by 18.3% to 5020, while the average sales area per store increased by 7.2% [3] - Revenue from the main brand and other brands saw declines of 6.1% and 9.9%, respectively, primarily due to weak consumer demand and reduced foot traffic [3] Online and Offline Strategy - The company has over 500 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 2,300 mini-program stores, indicating a strong online presence [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing retail experiences and has partnered with high-end brands to expand its product matrix [5] Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in inventory and online sales are expected to offset declines in offline traffic [5] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY26-27 down to 263.85 billion CNY and 279.18 billion CNY, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 12.90 billion CNY and 14.52 billion CNY, respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logistics industry is showing positive trends, but the warehousing rental market is adopting a "price - for - volume" strategy due to supply shocks. The current high - rent period of Southern SF Logistics REIT is a window of opportunity for investment, and investors who meet the income conditions can consider allocating it at an appropriate time [1][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Logistics activities are improving, but warehousing facilities are rented at the expense of price for volume - **Logistics industry boom has significantly increased, and the proportion of logistics storage costs has been stable with a slight increase**: In April 2025, China's Logistics Prosperity Index was 51.1%, remaining in the expansion range. The warehousing logistics industry is cyclical, affected by e - commerce promotions and manufacturing business peaks. In 2024, the total social logistics cost was 19.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the storage cost was 6.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 34% of the total social logistics cost [11][15]. - **The domestic high - standard warehouse industry has a "one - super - many - strong" pattern, and the supply shock will continue**: The domestic high - standard warehouse industry is highly concentrated, with GLP having a leading market share. Different development entities have increased the supply of high - standard warehouses. Due to the slowdown of macro - economic recovery and continuous supply release, the market generally adopts a "price - for - volume" strategy, but still faces short - term challenges of falling rents and rising vacancy rates [20][24]. - **Domestic warehousing logistics REITs are also facing a "price - for - volume" situation, and rents have declined**: As of May 16, 2025, 9 warehousing logistics REITs have been listed in China, involving 31 underlying assets. In 2025, the operating occupancy rates and rent levels of these REITs are still under pressure, and many projects will adopt a more aggressive "price - for - volume" strategy [31][35]. 3.2 SF Hong Kong REIT performs well and is an effective reference for domestic REITs - **SF Holdings adopts a self - operated logistics model, providing stable demand for Hong Kong and Shenzhen REITs**: SF Holdings is the largest comprehensive logistics service provider in China and Asia and the fourth - largest in the world. It has many key site resources such as logistics industrial parks, which can provide potential rental demand and expansion assets for its REITs [41][44]. - **SF Hong Kong REIT has been in operation for many years, with a high proportion of related tenants but stable performance**: Since its listing in 2021, SF REIT has been operating stably. Its first - largest tenant is the SF Holdings Group, and the rental area of SF Group tenants in 2024 accounted for 80.3% of the rentable area. The overall occupancy rate of its 4 properties has remained above 98% in the past three years [51][66]. - **The valuation of SF Hong Kong REIT has been adjusted downward, and the downward pressure on warehousing logistics assets still exists**: Affected by the decrease in occupancy rate and rent, the valuation of SF REIT decreased by 8.9% in 2024. It will face the renewal test of related tenants in 2026, and the subsequent lease term, rent, and increase rate need to be evaluated [68][70]. - **SF Hong Kong REIT has experienced multiple market cycles, and the low stock price has led to a dividend yield of over 7%**: Since its listing, SF REIT has experienced multiple market cycles and has been in a discounted state for a long time. From 2021 - 2024, its annualized distribution yields were 7.9%, 9.5%, 10.7%, and 8.8% respectively [73][74]. 3.3 Southern SF Logistics REIT, cherish the window period of the current high - rent period - **The underlying assets of SF's domestic REIT are sorting centers, which are important sites for express delivery services**: The underlying assets of Southern SF Logistics REIT include three projects in Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Hefei, with a total asset valuation of about 3.041 billion yuan. The sorting center area accounts for about 55% of the total rentable area, and the income accounts for a relatively high proportion [79][82]. - **The asset competition between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen REITs has eased, and each has its own regional focus**: SF REIT has the pre - emptive right to purchase SF Group's assets. In the future, SF Holdings will fully negotiate when selling assets to the two REITs. SF REIT will focus on South China and Southwest China, while Southern SF Logistics REIT will focus on the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [88][89]. - **It highly depends on SF Group tenants, and the occupancy rate is expected to be generally stable**: As of September 30, 2024, the related - party rental area of Southern SF Logistics REIT accounted for 84.29% of the rented area, and the related - party contributed 88.45% of the monthly rent and management fee income. Although the high concentration of tenants has both advantages and disadvantages, the occupancy rate is expected to be generally stable [91]. - **The valuation has considered the risk of rent decline, and the current distribution rate is a good allocation period**: As of May 16, 2025, the market value of Southern SF Logistics REIT was 3.766 billion yuan, and the expected cash distribution rate in 2025 was 3.98%, ranking in the upper - middle level among the 9 listed warehousing logistics REITs. The current high - rent period before 2027 is a window of opportunity for investment [4].