Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The company has announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Champion Motorsports Group Holdings, LLC for $15 million to strengthen and expand its sales channels [2] - The target company has strong channel and brand resource advantages, with a robust customer base and mature sales network, including partnerships with major retailers [3] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness in building its own brand and channel, optimizing operational efficiency, and improving profitability [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 43.34 billion, 57.79 billion, and 69.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 45.6%, 33.3%, and 19.7% [5][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.11 billion, 10.93 billion, and 13.23 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 87.9%, 34.9%, and 21.0% [5][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.43, 10.02, and 12.13 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 31x, 23x, and 19x [5][8]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：年末，求稳 | | | 12 月 18 日，放量上涨行情后，难免出现资金止盈，股债双双迎来调整。 权益市场缩量震荡。万得全 A下跌 0.38%，全天成交额 1.68 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 17 日）缩量 1576 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.12%，恒生科技下跌 0.73%。南向资金净流入 12.57 亿港元，其中小米集团和美 团分别净流入 9.04 亿港元和 4.34 亿港元，中国移动净流出 12.94 亿港元。 震荡行情可能延续。万得全 A 低开，后虽有所反弹但幅度不大，全天整体呈现震荡格局。或是经历了昨日的 大幅上涨后，指数来到了筹码峰附近，此前堆积在此处的筹码更倾向于兑现。稳市预期对托底市场起到了积极作 用，但行情的高度仍然取决于增量资金及其共识。 板块线索纷杂。行情主要出现在昨日跌幅较大的板块，商业航天继续领涨，Wind 指数上涨 2.59%。此外红利 和消费也相对亮眼，SW 银行指数和煤炭指数分别上涨 1.97%和 1.89%，轻工制造和纺织服饰涨幅均在 0 ...

Market Performance - On December 17, both stock and bond markets experienced significant gains, with the CSI A500 and CSI 300 indices seeing substantial inflows[1] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.3 billion yuan compared to December 16[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.92%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.03%[1] ETF Activity - Stock ETFs saw a notable increase in trading volume, with a total of 94.2 billion yuan traded, up by 12.3 billion yuan from the previous day[2] - ETFs tracking the CSI A500 led the volume increase with 7.8 billion yuan, followed by CSI 300 and ChiNext ETFs with 2 billion yuan and 1.1 billion yuan respectively[2] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment improved significantly, supported by policy signals aimed at stabilizing market expectations[2] - The strong market rebound confirmed the effectiveness of the belief in market resilience, suggesting that stability measures will continue to positively impact the market[2] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong recovery, with long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates declining, driven by clearer supply expectations for 2026[4] - By the end of the day, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds fell by 1.7 basis points and 4.6 basis points, respectively, to 1.84% and 2.23%[4] Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks reached a new high for December, totaling 7.9 billion HKD, indicating increased interest in Hong Kong equities[3] - The inflow was particularly strong in Xiaomi and Meituan, with net inflows of 1.063 billion HKD and 751 million HKD, respectively[1] Commodity Market Trends - Precious metals and new energy sectors led the commodity market recovery, with gold and silver prices rising by 0.42% and 5.05% respectively[6] - Lithium carbonate surged by 7.61%, driven by policy news and supply-side expectations, while polysilicon also saw an increase of 4.36%[7] Risk Considerations - The report highlights potential risks, including unexpected adjustments in monetary policy and liquidity changes that could impact market stability[9] - Investors are advised to remain cautious of regulatory risks and profit-taking in the context of heightened market volatility[8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within six months [56]. Core Insights - The global commercial space launch sector is undergoing a profound cost restructuring, shifting from a one-time manufacturing model to a reusable cost model. Traditional rockets have a hardware manufacturing cost share of about 67%, while emerging commercial rockets reduce this to around 24% through reusable designs [3][27]. - The launch market from 2024 to 2025 is expected to exhibit an absolute oligopoly, with launch service providers monopolizing orders and exerting control over the supply chain [5][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Cost Structure of Commercial Rockets - The cost breakdown of rockets shows that the first stage accounts for 60-70% of total costs, with engines being the most significant component, comprising over 50% of the first stage cost [13][27]. - The Falcon 9 rocket's cost structure indicates that the marginal cost of reuse is significantly lower than that of traditional rockets, with costs dropping to approximately $2,720 per kilogram in reusable mode [27][28]. 2. Industry Chain Benefits from Launch Volume - Launch service providers benefit directly from increased launch frequency and larger contracts, with revenue correlating to the number of launch tasks [4][35]. - The demand for reusable components and high-frequency replacement parts is expected to grow, driven by the need for higher reliability and maintenance of reusable systems [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks include companies involved in rocket manufacturing and space computing, such as Aerospace Power, Superjet, and West Materials, among others [6][52][53].

Investment Rating - The industry rating for pig farming is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The final ruling on anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports is expected to alleviate domestic supply pressure to some extent, with anti-dumping tax rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [2][5] - The EU is a significant source of pork imports for China, accounting for over 50% of imports in the first three quarters of 2025, with Spain being the largest supplier [3] - Domestic pig prices have been persistently low, leading to increased losses for farmers, with self-breeding farmers experiencing losses for 13 consecutive weeks as of mid-December 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The Ministry of Commerce announced the final ruling on anti-dumping investigations against EU pork imports, confirming the existence of dumping practices [2] Analysis and Judgment - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 1.93 million tons of pork, with 990,000 tons from the EU, representing 51% of total imports [3] - The domestic pig farming sector is undergoing both active and passive capacity reduction due to ongoing losses and policy guidance, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to below 40 million [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on pig farming stocks, particularly those with low costs and strong growth potential, such as: 1. Lihua Co., which has seen a continuous decline in costs since 2024, with a target cost of 12 yuan/kg by year-end [5] 2. Muyuan Foods, which maintains profitability despite low pig prices and has a strong integrated business model [5] 3. Shuanghui Development, benefiting from stable meat product sales and expected cost advantages in 2025 [5]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：考验定力 12 月 16 日 ，市场重演债涨股跌剧情。近期全球市场风偏一致走弱，最近一个交易日，美日韩等国主流股指 均呈现明显下跌状态，国内权益市场同样受到预期冲击，各大股指普遍回调，其中科技类板块跌幅更为显著。债 市则中断了连续两日的急跌行情，不过整体的修复幅度较为有限。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 1.45%，全天成交额 1.75 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 15 日）缩量 463 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数下跌 1.54%，恒生科技下跌 1.74%。南向资金净流入 0.82 亿港元，其中小米集团和小鹏 汽车分别净流入 6.32 亿港元和 3.45 亿港元，阿里巴巴和中国移动分别净流出 6.32 亿港元和 4.60 亿港元。 下跌压力主要来源于全球层面。其一，日本央行将于 12 月 19日公布利率决议，预计加息 25bp，市场担忧套 系交易逆转对权益行情造成冲击（参考 2024 年 8 月 5 日大跌）。其二，美股再显疲态，纳斯达克指数从 12 月 11 日开始回调，截至 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to stabilize [2][3] - The consumer goods sector, particularly home furnishings and cosmetics, is anticipated to benefit from increased consumption policies and a recovering real estate market [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Data - In November 2025, the total retail sales growth was +1.3%, lower than the expected +2.9%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, retail sales increased by +4.0% year-on-year [1][13] - Specific categories showed varied performance: furniture sales decreased by -3.8%, while cultural office supplies and cosmetics grew by +11.7% and +6.1%, respectively [1][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with new housing starts, completions, and sales all showing significant year-on-year declines in November 2025, at -26.8%, -28.0%, and -19.1%, respectively [2][32] - However, there are signs of improvement in the month-on-month data, indicating potential stabilization in the market [2] Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is expected to gain momentum due to ongoing policy support and a recovering real estate market, which will stimulate demand for home upgrades [3][9] Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is experiencing a recovery, with retail sales for January to November 2025 reaching 428.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +4.8%. November sales alone were 46.8 billion yuan, up +6.1% year-on-year [4][24] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw retail sales of 341.4 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a +13.5% year-on-year increase. November sales were 29.2 billion yuan, up +8.5% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices [8][28] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the home furnishings sector include Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, which are expected to outperform due to their strong brand and market position [9] - In the cosmetics sector, domestic brands like Runben and others are highlighted for their growth potential through diversified product strategies [9]

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total supply of long-term government bonds in 2026 is projected to be between 6.5 trillion and 7.2 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the 6.4 trillion yuan in 2025[2][4]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has increased significantly since 2019, with the proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 10 years rising from less than 5% before 2019 to around 25% in recent years[2]. Market Behavior and Trends - From November 20 to December 15, 2025, net sales of bonds with maturities over 10 years totaled 659 billion yuan by brokerages, with funds also selling 458 billion yuan during the same period due to relative ranking pressures[1]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.81% to 1.87%, while the yield on 30-year bonds increased from 2.14% to 2.28%, leading to a widening yield spread of 43 basis points[1]. Issuance Patterns - In 2025, the issuance of special government bonds accounted for 1.3 trillion yuan, while ordinary long-term bonds totaled 211 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards longer maturities[3]. - The issuance of long-term local government bonds peaked in the first quarter of 2025, with significant amounts issued in subsequent months, reflecting a balanced issuance rhythm throughout the year[5][6]. Institutional Demand and Capacity - Major banks have been net sellers of long-term government bonds, with cumulative net sales of 3.58 trillion yuan for large banks and 2.79 trillion yuan for joint-stock banks in 2025[8]. - Insurance companies have emerged as significant buyers of long-term bonds, with net purchases of 2.36 trillion yuan in long-term government bonds and 1.88 trillion yuan in local bonds in 2025[9]. Future Outlook - The demand for long-term government bonds in 2026 may be constrained by potential declines in insurance premium growth and regulatory pressures on asset management products, which could limit their capacity to absorb new issuances[10][11]. - The market's ability to improve the supply-demand structure will be crucial for the performance of long-term bonds, with potential adjustments in bank capacity and central bank interventions being key factors to watch[12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Recommended" [1][10] Core Insights - The National Medical Insurance Administration aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within the policy scope by 2026, which includes incorporating suitable childbirth pain relief projects into the insurance coverage [2][3] - The number of people covered by maternity insurance reached 255 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with nearly 95% of coordinated areas directly distributing maternity allowances to insured individuals [2] - The supportive policies for childbirth are expected to continue, creating a more favorable environment for childbirth, with various subsidies and tax deductions being implemented [3][4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On December 13, 2025, the National Medical Insurance Work Conference was held, where multiple data and measures were announced, including the goal of achieving "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth by 2026 [1] Analysis and Judgment - The National Medical Insurance Administration's goal for 2026 includes expanding coverage to flexible employment workers, migrant workers, and new employment forms, while also enhancing prenatal care expense coverage [2] Supportive Policies - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system, which provides 3,600 yuan per year for each eligible child under three years old, is part of a broader effort to improve the childbirth support system [3] Market Opportunities - The report indicates that nearly 70% of newborns are in third-tier cities and below, suggesting that childcare subsidies will significantly lower family costs and boost birth rates, particularly benefiting the lower-tier markets [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the favorable childbirth policies will likely continue, benefiting maternal and infant consumer goods, and recommends specific companies such as Kidswant, Saint Bella, and others for investment [5]