Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The rise of Clawbot, an open-source AI gateway, indicates a significant shift in AI integration into workflows, allowing users to control tasks via messaging apps, enhancing user privacy and flexibility [2][19] - The stable issuance of 182 game licenses in January reflects consistent regulatory policies, boosting market confidence and catering to diverse player needs [3][20] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumer stimulation and employment stability 2) The gaming industry, supported by policy incentives and technological advancements 3) The film and cultural tourism sectors, which are expected to recover due to consumer policies [20] Industry Data Film Industry - Top three films by box office for the week include "Return to Silent Hill" with 24.397 million yuan, "Zootopia 2" with 23.501 million yuan, and "Water Pipe" with 22.594 million yuan [21][22] Gaming Industry - Top three iOS games are "Honor of Kings," "Delta Force," and "Peacekeeper Elite," while the top three Android games are "Heart Town," "Arknights: End of the World," and "Goose Goose Duck" [23][24] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by viewing index are "The Peaceful Year," "Small Town Big Events," and "The Sun Shines on Me," with indices of 78.1, 76.8, and 75.9 respectively [25][26] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Sounding Far 2025," followed by "Sound of Life: Chinese Flow Season" and "Please Pay Attention to the Universe," while the top animation is "Immortal Reversal" with a viewing index of 237.8 [27][29]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The rise of Clawbot, an open-source AI gateway, indicates a significant shift in AI integration into workflows, transforming AI from a passive assistant to an active digital employee capable of executing tasks and monitoring states continuously [2][19] - The stable issuance of 182 game licenses in January reflects consistent regulatory policies, boosting market confidence and supporting diverse product approvals to meet varied player demands [3][20] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumer promotion and employment stability 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see demand growth driven by policy incentives and technological advancements 3) The film and cultural tourism sectors, which are likely to recover due to consumer policies stimulating demand [20] Industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week are: 1) "Return to Silent Hill" with a box office of 24.397 million yuan, accounting for 15.20% of the total 2) "Zootopia 2" with 23.501 million yuan, 14.60% 3) "Water Pipe" with 22.594 million yuan, 14.10% [21][22] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are: 1) "Honor of Kings" 2) "Delta Force" 3) "Peacekeeper Elite" - The top three Android games by popularity are: 1) "Heart Town" 2) "Arknights: End of the World" 3) "Duck Duck Goose" [23][24] TV Series Industry - The top three series by viewing index are: 1) "Peaceful Year" with an index of 78.1 2) "Small Town Big Events" with 76.8 3) "The Sun is Like Me" with 75.9 [25][26] Variety and Animation - The top three variety shows by viewing index are: 1) "Sounding Far 2025" 2) "Sound of Life: Chinese Flow Season" 3) "Universe Sparkle Please Note" [27][28] - The top three animated shows by viewing index are: 1) "Immortal Reversal" with an index of 237.8 2) "Happy Hammer" with 230 3) "Beyond Time" with 195.3 [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The life insurance premium growth turned positive in December, with a total premium income of 436.24 billion yuan for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - Property insurance premiums also showed improvement, with total premium income of 175.70 billion yuan for 2025, up 3.9% year-on-year [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 4,131.45 billion yuan by the end of 2025, a 15.1% increase from the end of 2024 [3] - The report anticipates a significant increase in new business value (NBV) in Q1 2026, driven by high demand and the transformation of dividend insurance, which will alleviate pressure on profit margins [4] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - In December, life insurance premium income was 215.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, marking a recovery from a previous decline of -2.4% [1] - The premium income for life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance for 2025 was 355.57 billion, 76.99 billion, and 3.68 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11.4%, -0.4%, and -9.8% [1] Property Insurance - The property insurance sector saw a total premium income of 1,413 billion yuan in December, up 4.4% year-on-year [2] - The December premium income for auto insurance was 977 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.2% increase, while non-auto insurance premiums reached 437 billion yuan, up 9.6% [2] Asset Growth - By the end of 2025, the total assets of life insurance companies were 3,639.37 billion yuan, and property insurance companies had assets of 311.74 billion yuan, representing increases of 15.3% and 7.5% respectively [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry totaled 366.40 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase from the previous year [3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook for the insurance sector, suggesting that the current valuation remains low, with a price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.68-0.85x for January 30, 2026 [4]

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PB-ROE 模型周度仓位观点 [Table_Summary] ► PB-ROE 模型方法 根据时间序列 PB-ROE 模型计算残差，模型残差是市场 实际估值超出基本面合理估值的部分，即实际估值相对于合 理估值的偏离。 当残差>0 时，实际 PB 高于基本面合理值，市场情绪高 涨，风险偏好提升。 当残差<0 时，实际 PB 低于基本面合理值，市场情绪低 迷，风险偏好下降。 ► PB-ROE 残差与可投资区域 A 股市场 PB-ROE 残差与下周指数涨幅总体正相关，并 且有统计显著性。当残差明显超越历史均值时，市场情绪极 度高涨，可配置高仓位；而当残差明显低于历史均值时，市 场存在较强安全边际，下跌空间有限，可配置中高仓位。 我们以残差历史均值±1 倍标准差为界，确定仓位信号。 ► 本周仓位观点 截至 2026/1/30，市场整体 PB-ROE 残差值为 0.18，超过 历史均值+1 倍标准差，当前处于估值扩张并且市场情绪高涨 阶 段 ， 模 型 建 议 本 周 (2026/2/2-2026/2 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating sharply due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership. Recent comments from former President Trump advocating for lower interest rates have positively impacted precious metals [3][6][29] - The report highlights a strong demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, with expectations for continued price increases in the long term due to global monetary and debt concerns [7][21] - Silver has shown a dramatic price drop recently, attributed to profit-taking and market reactions to Federal Reserve announcements, but the underlying supply-demand dynamics remain supportive of future price increases [8][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices fell by 1.52% to $4,907.50 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 17.44% to $85.25 per ounce. In contrast, SHFE gold rose by 4.10% to ¥1,161.42 per gram, and SHFE silver increased by 11.92% to ¥27,941.00 per kilogram [1][33] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 19.29% to 57.57, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions involving Iran, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, leading to increased volatility in their prices [3][6][29] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices decreased by 0.44% to $13,070.50 per ton, while aluminum fell by 1.20% to $3,135.50 per ton. Zinc, however, saw a rise of 3.09% to $3,370.00 per ton [9] - The SHFE market showed copper prices increasing by 2.31% to ¥103,680.00 per ton, with aluminum and zinc also experiencing gains [9] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines and structural demand from emerging industries are expected to support copper prices in the long term, despite current demand weakness in China [10][24] Small Metals - Magnesium prices rose by 1.45% to ¥18,240 per ton, driven by increased demand ahead of the Chinese New Year and stable supply from major production areas [19] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices have shown slight increases, supported by tight supply and steady demand from steel manufacturers [20]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 二手房挂牌价回暖 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1）周度：二手房成交同比表现持续强劲 二手房市场成交维持高位震荡，同比表现持续强劲。二手房市场活跃度在经历前两周的连续攀升后回调， 本周（1 月 23-29 日）15 城二手房成交面积录得 235 万平，环比小幅下滑 8%，成交规模仍处于过去四周 214 万-256 万平区间，持平于 12 月周均成交 235 万平，显示二手房市场相对平稳。同比维度上，继上周成交增长 10%并终结连续十四周的下跌态势后，本周因去年同期为春节周的低基数效应，同比大增 150%；剔除春节错 位影响，与 2024 年同期相比亦录得 22%的增长。 新房市场受月末效应提振，创年后新高，但复苏成色仍待观察。本周 38 城新房成交面积录得 225 万平， 环比增长 21%，或主要受月末房企集中冲量效应驱动，绝对量虽创下元旦后新高，但仍明显低于 12 月的 263 万-524 万平。同比维度上，受去年春节低基数影响，本周新房成交录得 51%的 ...

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 当残差<0 时，实际 PB 低于基本面合理值，市场情绪低 迷，风险偏好下降。 ► PB-ROE 残差与可投资区域 A 股市场 PB-ROE 残差与下周指数涨幅总体正相关，并 且有统计显著性。当残差明显超越历史均值时，市场情绪极 度高涨，可配置高仓位；而当残差明显低于历史均值时，市 场存在较强安全边际，下跌空间有限，可配置中高仓位。 我们以残差历史均值±1 倍标准差为界，确定仓位信号。 ► 本周仓位观点 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PB-ROE 模型周度仓位观点 [Table_Summary] ► PB-ROE 模型方法 根据时间序列 PB-ROE 模型计算残差，模型残差是市场 实际估值超出基本面合理估值的部分，即实际估值相对于合 理估值的偏离。 当残差>0 时，实际 PB 高于基本面合理值，市场情绪高 涨，风险偏好提升。 截至 2026/1/30，市场整体 PB-ROE 残差值为 0.18，超过 历史均值+1 倍标准差，当前处于估值扩张并且市场情绪高涨 阶 段 ， 模 型 建 议 本 周 (2026/2/2-2026/2 ...

[Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况： 1 月资金面，两轮波动，中枢平稳 回顾开年以来资金利率走势，月内资金经历两轮波动。第一轮波动于 14 日前 后。随着央行回笼跨年资金，加之 13日买断式逆回购续作时点错位，资金缺口压力 达到阶段性峰值。叠加银行融出下降、北交所密集新股发行等多因素影响，资金利 率于 14 日快速升至 1.49%，R007 亦突破 1.6%。月内第二轮资金波动源于税期与 跨月需求的紧密衔接，二者叠加推升资金价格季节性走升，R001、R007 分别收于 1.51%、1.64%，整体跨月压力不算大。 [Table_Title] 春节前，政府债发行提速 全月来看，资金中枢仍维持平稳，R007 月均值较前月下行 2.2bp 至 1.55%、 DR007 小幅上行 1.8bp 至 1.51%附近。隔夜资金中枢整体较去年 12 月有所上行， R001、DR001 月均值分别环比上行 4.7、5.5bp 至 1.41%、1.34%。 1 月资金面"变中趋稳"的背后，主要得益于供给端的支撑。一方面是央行投放 相对"慷慨"，为资金面宽松奠定基础。1 月国债买卖数据 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PMI 意外回落，什么信号 1 月 31 日， 统计局发布 1 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.3%，前值 50.1%。非制造业 PMI 49.4%，前值 50.2%。重点关注以下四个方面： 第一，制造业 PMI 回落，生产和订单是主要拖累。1 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.3%，与去年 11 月的 49.2%接近，表现显著弱于市场预期（彭博预期 50.1%）。组成制造业 PMI的五个分项中，主要是生产、新 订单明显回落，生产回落 1.1 个百分点至 50.6%，新订单回落 1.6 个百分点至 49.2%，两者分别拖累 PMI 0.3、 0.5 个百分点。 制造业回落幅度超出季节性。PMI 已通过季调方式部分剔除季节性规律，不过春节早晚对 12 月、1 月到 3 月 PMI 仍会有一定程度影响，难以完全剔除。我们参考春节类似日期的年份，2015（2 月 19 日）、2018（2 月 16 日）、2021（2 月 12 日），制造业生产分项 1 月相对前一年 12 月回落 0 ...