拆分来看，第一，核心 CPI 维持韧性，工业消费品是主要支撑。核心 CPI 连续四个月维持 1.2%。据统计 局，扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨 0.6%，带动 CPI 环比上涨约 0.16 个百分点（占比约 40%）。其中家用器 具、其他用品和服务、通信工具三个细分项表现亮眼：一是家用器具重拾涨势，在经历 10-11 月的休整后，12 月环比大幅上涨 1.4%，按 1.8%权重测算，拉动 CPI 约 0.03 个百分点，反映"国补"政策对耐用品消费价格仍 具支撑；二是贵金属效应延续，受金银珠宝价格上涨带动，其他用品和服务分项环比上涨 2.8%，按 3.1%权重 测算，拉动 CPI约 0.09pct，继续形成重要贡献；三是通信工具回升，12 月环比上涨 3.0 个百分点，扭转了 1-11 月的下跌趋势，符合近三年 12 月因新品发布平均涨价 3.0%左右的季节性规律。 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 年末通胀加速回升，什么信号？ 2025 年 12 月 CPI 同比 0.8%，与预期持平，前月 0.7%。CPI 环比 0.2%，前月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the power equipment sector, driven by the rapid development of AIDC and ongoing investments in grid construction [3]. Core Insights - The power system is expected to undergo a value and ecological transformation due to the surge in computing power demand driven by AI technology and applications [3]. - The report identifies two main demand drivers (increased electricity demand and enhanced power quality requirements) and three key sectors (generation, grid, and user) that will reshape the power system's value and ecology [3]. - The demand for gas turbines and energy storage solutions is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of data centers and the need for reliable power supply [3]. - The global grid construction demand is increasing, particularly in regions with aging infrastructure, leading to heightened investment from utility companies [3]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong channel resources and technological advantages in capitalizing on these trends [3]. Summary by Sections AI Applications and Power System Transformation - The rapid development of AI applications is reshaping the value of the power system, with significant implications for electricity demand and supply efficiency [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for technological upgrades in power supply systems to meet the increasing demands of AI-driven applications [3]. Generation Side: Increased Electricity Demand - The global electricity demand from data centers is projected to reach 415 TWh in 2024 and 945 TWh by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 15% [16]. - The report notes that the demand for gas turbines is rising as data centers explore on-site generation solutions to enhance energy efficiency and supply resilience [22][23]. - Companies like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are experiencing a surge in gas turbine orders, indicating a robust market outlook [27][71]. Grid Side: Growing Construction Demand - Aging power grids in developed economies are under pressure, necessitating increased investment in infrastructure upgrades [54][56]. - The U.S. is launching initiatives to accelerate grid infrastructure projects to meet rising electricity demands driven by AI [58]. - European utility companies are also ramping up investments in grid infrastructure to address similar challenges [65]. User Side: Power Supply Technology Evolution - The report highlights a shift towards high-voltage and direct current (DC) power supply systems in data centers to accommodate rising power demands [81][90]. - Major tech companies are transitioning to DC power distribution systems to improve efficiency and support higher power densities [100][104].

短线资金尝试兑现，市场承接力量不弱。万得全 A 突破新高后持续上涨，今日是首个震荡日，做多意愿边际 减弱。同时，大金融在昨日大幅上涨后，今日边际回落，指向市场对牛市的共识仍待夯实。值得注意的是，成交 额继续放量至 2.88 万亿元，显示出资金仍有较强的承接意愿。这也意味着，在指数强势突破前高后，资金的加仓 价位预期也随之上升至前高以上。即使后续行情调整，幅度或相对有限，指数上涨趋势不改。 波动在所难免，但不必频繁调整仓位。在指数进入趋势行情后，可以考虑两种操作思路。一是通过短线择时 增厚收益，但对节奏把握的要求较高，若卖出后继续上涨则会陷入被动。二是降低对波动的敏感度，保持仓位获 取趋势收益，即使行情大幅震荡（例如 2025 年 7 月 30 日至 8 月 1 日、9 月 2-4 日），市场的做多意愿也有望推 动行情反弹。 科技领涨，资金向比较"经典"的强势板块聚集。半导体材料设备涨幅领先，例如光刻胶、光刻机、刻蚀、 薄膜沉积等相关品种，资金积极博弈自主可控预期。同时，存储概念大幅上涨，受美股存储大涨带动高开，其背 后是市场继续博弈存储芯片涨价预期。DDR5（16Gb）、NAND Flash（64Gb）价格较 ...

[Table_Title] 1 月债市，抢占先机 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 从市场定价内容来看，12 月债市主要交易四大主题，一是中 央对次年的政策定调、二是短期内央行"宽货币"加码的可能性、 三是超长政府债供给占比、四是年末机构间的排名博弈。 ►基本面与资金面是年初债市行情的重要参考 复盘过去五年 1 月债市行情，长端利率的运行方向并不一 致，涨跌互现的背后，主要是基本面与资金面呈现出不同组合。 组合一是年初经济基本面向好，资金面逐步收敛，两种因素叠加 下，债市收益率逐步上行，典型的案例年份是 2021 年、2023 年、2025 年。组合二是年初基本面数据不及预期，货币政策靠前 发力，推动资金面进一步宽松，这一状态则对债市更为利好，典 型的案例年份是 2022 年、2024 年。 展望 2026，以史为鉴，基本面与资金面状态决定着债市行情 的底色，"宽货币"加力与具体落地形式依然是博弈重点。除此之 外，债市同样存在非季节性的定价考量，主要有以下四个关注。 ►关注点一：供给节奏 1 月政府债净供给压力在 1.3 万亿元左右。加总国债和地方 债，一季度政府债净融资规模约 4.00-4.12 万亿 ...

Macro Environment Summary - The nominal GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, higher than 2024 but lower than 2023, with a decline from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.7% in Q3 [8][9] - The GDP deflator index has decreased to -1.08%, indicating deflationary pressures [8] - Non-manufacturing business expectations are stronger than manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI remaining below 50% for most months in 2025 [12][14] - Employment stability in manufacturing is better than in non-manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI for employment remaining stable [17][19] - Consumer confidence regarding employment has shown fluctuations, with a general upward trend in 2025 [21][23] - Retail sales growth has declined significantly, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [27][29] - Real estate investment has seen a cumulative decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, with expectations of negative growth for four consecutive years [33][34] - Net exports have contributed positively to GDP growth, with total exports of 2.44 trillion yuan and imports of 1.67 trillion yuan from January to November 2025 [39][40] Express Delivery Industry - The growth rate of express delivery volume has significantly decreased from 22.4% in January-February 2025 to 5% in November, attributed to declining consumer demand and competition from instant retail [47][53] - Price changes in express delivery have led to a clear differentiation in demand, with rising costs affecting low-margin products and order-filling activities [57][61] - Different express companies have shown varying trends in volume growth and revenue per package, with Yunda experiencing negative volume growth but higher revenue per package compared to YTO [61][65] Aviation and Airport Industry - The number of civil transport airports in China is expected to reach 270 by the end of 2025, with significant progress in airport construction projects [75][77] - The fleet of major airlines has seen growth, with wide-body and narrow-body aircraft increasing by 8.9% and 13.3% respectively since the end of 2019 [81][82] - Domestic flight capacity has been adjusted, with a 1.8% decrease in weekly domestic flights for the winter-spring season of 2025 compared to the previous year [86][90] - Airlines are focusing on international routes, with a 17.3% increase in international flights compared to the previous year [90] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has decreased by 6% year-on-year, reflecting a strategy to maintain passenger load factors [102][110] - The low oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB are expected to enhance profits for major airlines, with estimated profit increases ranging from 20.4 billion to 50 billion yuan depending on the airline [128]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之十二 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 基金费率新规落地，信用债怎么配 [Table_Summary] ► 1 月信用债供强需弱，聚焦 3 年以内品种 12 月，资金面宽松，受宽货币预期变化、超长债供给担忧及基金销 售新规监管等扰动，长端利率表现较弱，曲线走陡。信用债走势分 化，中高等级 5Y 以内收益率下行，而长久期、低评级品种收益率 大多上行，1Y 和低等级 5Y 信用利差走扩幅度较大。 基金年末规模冲量或是信用债行情的主导因素。12月，基金净买入 信用债 1610 亿元，环比增长 500 亿元，同比增长 714 亿元。与此 同时，科创债 ETF 规模大增 1005 亿元，主因可能是基金年末冲 量，科创债 ETF 成为重要工具。与之对应的，信用债呈现"短强长 弱、高评级占优"的结构性行情。 邮箱：huangjm1@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120524040001 联系电话： 展望 2026 年 1 月，伴随基金销售费用新规落地，投资者的担忧缓 解，债市行情 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The light industry and beauty sector is expected to stabilize and improve due to the dual drivers of domestic demand policies and steady export growth [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a year of enhanced domestic demand policies, coupled with consumers' increasing pursuit of high-quality living, creating significant growth opportunities for the industry [3] - The penetration rate of cross-border e-commerce has ample room for improvement, and the recovery of international relations and demand from emerging markets will further drive market expansion [3] Group 2: Beauty Sector - The cosmetics market is projected to grow steadily, with the skincare segment being the largest, reaching a market size of 4,619 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [19] - The high-end cosmetics market is rapidly expanding, with the market size for high-end skincare products increasing from 749 billion yuan in 2019 to 1,144 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.84% [19] - Key companies in the beauty sector include: - **Mao Geping**: Revenue reached 25.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a growth rate of 31.28% [23] - **Lin Qingxuan**: Revenue grew to 10.52 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 98.28% increase [27] - **Marubi**: Revenue is expected to reach 29.70 billion yuan in 2024, recovering from previous declines [32] Group 3: Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics sector is facing short-term pressure due to cautious consumer spending, but the long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected CAGR of 10%-15% from 2024 to 2027 [36] - The market penetration rate for medical aesthetics in China is currently at 4-5%, indicating a growth potential of 2-5 times compared to countries like the US and South Korea [36] - Key companies in the medical aesthetics sector include: - **Jinbo Biological**: Achieved revenue of 12.96 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.10% [45] Group 4: Daily Chemicals - The daily chemical industry is benefiting from domestic demand policies, with local brands poised to capture market share [49] - Companies such as **Dengkang Oral Care** and **Runben** are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [51][55] - **Shanghai Jahwa** has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 49.61 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 10.83% increase [59] Group 5: Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is under pressure due to weak real estate sales, with a 15% decline in residential investment in 2025 [65] - National subsidies for home appliances and furnishings have provided some support, but the long-term effects are limited [65] - Leading companies such as **Oppein Home** and **Kuka Home** are noted for their strong channel capabilities and multi-category layouts [65]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 1.5% increase, reaching 4084 points, marking a nearly ten-year high with a consecutive thirteen-day rise[1] - The Wande All A Index rose by 1.59%, with a total trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan compared to the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.38%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.46%[1] Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflow was 2.879 billion HKD, lower than the previous day's inflow of 18.72 billion HKD[1] - Major inflows were seen in China Ping An and Alibaba, with net inflows of 1.84 billion HKD and 1.62 billion HKD respectively, while China Mobile and Tencent saw outflows of 875 million HKD and 804 million HKD[1] Bond Market Trends - The bond market continued to show weakness, with the 30-year government bond futures falling by 0.31% to 110.93 yuan, a new low since 2025[1] - The yields on 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds rose by 2.4 basis points, 2.2 basis points, and 2.6 basis points to 1.76%, 1.88%, and 2.31% respectively[4] Investment Sentiment - The implied volatility increased, indicating a rising FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment in the market, although the CSI 300 ETF IV index remains at a relatively low level[2] - The market is characterized by a bullish atmosphere, with traditional sectors like finance, consumption, and real estate performing well, alongside strong performances in technology and battery storage sectors[2] Commodity Market Insights - Precious metals led the commodity market, with silver rising by 7.06% and gold increasing by 1.27%[6] - The copper market showed strong performance due to supply constraints and inventory optimization, with significant price increases expected[8]

2026年通信行业年度投资策略 AI基建与应用加速，卫星互联 趋势明显 通信团队 证券分析师：马军 SAC NO:S1120523090003 2026年01月06日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 十五五开年，通信业新身份 通信行业正从传统管道支撑 跃升为赋能新质生产力的核心引擎 1 适度超前的数字基础设施建设，全球积极投入数字化转型 在 2010 年至 2020 年间，全球 ICT 投资复合增长率达 4.3%，领先 GDP 复合增长率 1.5%。2020 年，全球受疫情影响，经济增长速度明显 减缓，但全球各国坚持投资数字基础设施，保持了持续增长，复合增长率达 6.7%。 进入后疫情时代，各国的数字基础设施建设的步伐明显加快，全球经济快速复苏（GDP 复合增长率达 4.3%），并构建了面向未来的经济韧性。 IDC数据显示，2023年全球ICT市场总投资规模接近4.9万亿美元，并有望在2028年增至6.6万亿美元，五年复合增长率（CAGR）为6.3%。 资料来源：华为，华西证券研究所 图表： 全球GDP增速 VS ICT 投资增速（%） 2 4G/5G驱动ICT融合趋势下的资本开支演 ...

Market Overview - In December, the equity-like market transitioned from stability to volatility, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.30% for the month and 27.65% for the year[12] - The market experienced a significant rebound starting December 17, following a brief dip on December 16, indicating strong market resilience[12] Structural Risks and Fund Sentiment - Structural risks have notably eased, with the concentration of trading volume below historical high levels, dropping to 41% on December 16[25] - Positive fund sentiment was reflected in a net inflow of 806 billion CNY into stock ETFs in December, second only to April's 1,825 billion CNY[35] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have shown a significant upward trend, with the valuation center for bonds priced at 100 CNY rising by 2.40 percentage points to 35.77%[18] - The median price for convertible bonds is expected to remain in the 130-135 CNY range if the equity market maintains a strong oscillating pattern[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a bullish mindset, as the market is currently in a low implied volatility state, similar to conditions seen in July[75] - Historical trends indicate that year-end rallies often face resistance at previous highs, but successful breakouts can lead to substantial gains, as seen in 2014 and 2020[76] Risks and Considerations - The primary risk for convertible bonds lies in the potential weakness of the equity market, which could exert dual pressure on valuations and underlying stocks[63] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring equity market trends and expectations, as a sustained downturn could negatively impact convertible bond inflows[62]