Group 1: Overnight Rates and Liquidity - The overnight rate DR001 has reached a new low of 1.27%, breaking the previous year's lower limit of 1.30%[1] - The average overnight rate R001 decreased from 1.37% to 1.35% during the week of December 8-12[1] - The liquidity in the market remains stable, with a net withdrawal of 0.8 trillion yuan in the open market for December[20] Group 2: Tax Period and Market Outlook - The upcoming tax period (December 15-17) is expected to cause some liquidity fluctuations, but the average tax payment over the past three years is around 1.32 trillion yuan, indicating manageable pressure[2] - The central bank plans to conduct a net injection of 200 billion yuan through a 6-month reverse repurchase agreement on December 15, which may alleviate some liquidity pressure[2] Group 3: Open Market Operations - From December 15-19, a total of 7.485 trillion yuan will mature in the open market, with 6.685 trillion yuan from reverse repos, which is relatively low compared to the median of 10.21 trillion yuan for 2025[3] - The government bond net payment is projected to be -839 billion yuan for the same period, primarily due to the deferral of 1.96 trillion yuan in bonds to the following week[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.65%, an increase of 1.3 basis points from the previous week[6] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 940.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of -120.5 billion yuan during December 8-12[6]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 美股科技股回调，全球多数市场波动加大 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股科技股出现明显回调，全球多 数市场波动趋于加大。由于市场对于 AI 泡沫的担忧加大，美联 储降息表态偏鹰派，特朗普签署统一人工智能监管规则，叠加 日本央行行长植田和男表示到 2027 年会出现多次加息，本周美 股科技股回调幅度较大；博通、甲骨文、闪迪等美股科技股在 本周内的交易日中出现单日大幅回撤。目前 TAMAMA 科技指 数市盈率仍然有 36.98；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 45.72； 纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 42.01，美股科技股相关指数估值 进一步升高。由于美股科技股估值水平较高，美股科技指数中 期仍容易出现进一步的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍 有 40.22，依然处于高于 40 的高位区间，仍然距离 1999 年 12 月的历史高点较为接近。由于特朗普的经济政策存在较大的不 确定性，美联储宽松政策计划节奏不及市场预期， ...

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.14, with a historical average of 25.72[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.04, while the CSI 300 Index stands at 13.16[9] - The growth of the A-share market is influenced by both earnings changes and valuation changes, with contributions to index fluctuations analyzed[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.93, with a historical maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.72, indicating a significant valuation compared to other sectors[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.04, with historical values ranging from a minimum of 11.21 to a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index currently stands at a PE (TTM) of 42.03, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical averages[89] Sector-Specific Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels[23] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, is experiencing high PE levels, indicating potential overvaluation[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, corporate earnings not meeting forecasts, and significant market volatility[103]

证券研究报告|策略点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 供需优化，提质增效 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议点评 事件：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议贯彻了 12 月 8 日中央政治局会议对 经济工作的定调，部署 2026 年经济工作的八个大重点任务。 · "五个必须"，是目标也是手段。本次会议处于"十四五"收官与"十五五"开局的交汇点，在 肯定过去成绩的同时，新形势下会议提出"五个必须"为新一年的经济工作定下基调，"必须充分 挖掘经济潜能"指向充分利用大国优势培育更多增长点、释放发展潜能；"必须坚持政策支持和改 革创新并举"对应政策要"短长结合"，确保实现稳中求进；"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得 好'"指向要统筹好活力与秩序的关系，充分激发市场活力；"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合"是对投资理念和方向的优化，突出改善民生的社会效益；"必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑 战"强调以内生的确定性应对外部的不确定。本次会议表现出更强的战略定力，强调当前经济发展 中的问题和挑战"大多是发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 积极政策继续 [Table_Title2] ──中央经济工作会议点评 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，总书记在重要讲话中总结 2025 年经济工作，分析当 前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。总理作总结讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神、做好明年经济工 作提出要求。相关点评如下： 核心观点 本次会议清晰、客观地指出了当前经济面临的老问题和新挑战，指出了应当通过努力解决问题，通过发展迎接挑 战。继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策，促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场，通过创新驱动、建设统一大市场和 推进制度型开放，推动高质量发展。2026 年，随着会议精神的深入贯彻与各项政策落地见效，我们预计经济预期 将持续改善，市场主体经营状况逐步好转，物价温和回升，经济回升向好的基础将进一步夯实。 我们预计明年财政将继续保持一定 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75% on December 11, 2025, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates only one rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in 2026, with a high degree of dispersion remaining[2] - The Fed will begin purchasing Treasury bills at a rate of $40 billion per month starting December 12, 2025, to ensure ample reserves in the financial system[2] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed raised its growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.0%, respectively, an increase of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.1 percentage points from the September meeting[3] - Inflation forecasts were lowered, with PCE expected at 2.9% and 2.4% for 2025 and 2026, down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively[3] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, with a slight decrease to 4.2% in 2027[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 3 basis points to 3.56%, while the S&P and Nasdaq indices rose by about 0.4%[5] - Gold prices increased by 0.5% to over $4200 per ounce, reflecting market optimism regarding liquidity and reduced hawkish concerns[5] - The dollar index weakened by about 0.3% to around 98.7, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards liquidity easing[5] Group 4: Future Considerations - Powell indicated that the Fed's actions are primarily preventive against potential labor market weaknesses, with no immediate decisions made for the January meeting[4] - The Fed's independence may be challenged in 2026, potentially leading to lower policy rates and higher inflation risks, which could favor equities and precious metals while negatively impacting long-term Treasury rates[6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.50% to 3.75%[1] - Starting December 12, the Fed will initiate a monthly purchase plan of approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds to maintain liquidity in the banking system[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.4% as of September, higher than market expectations, despite non-farm payrolls adding 119,000 jobs, exceeding the forecast of 50,000[2] - GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been revised upward to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8%[4] - PCE inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 2.9% and 2.4%, down from 3.0% and 2.6% respectively, while core PCE inflation expectations remain stable[4] Group 3: Future Projections - The median interest rate forecast remains unchanged for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 3.6%, 3.4%, 3.1%, and 3.1% respectively[5] - The dot plot indicates a consensus for a potential additional 25 basis point cut next year, with some members predicting a more aggressive reduction[8] Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, S&P 500 up 0.67%, and Nasdaq up 0.33% following the Fed's announcement[10] - Gold prices increased by 0.52% to $4,258.30 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.60% to 98.64[10]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 通胀修复，从 PPI 切换至 CPI 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 11 月 CPI 同比 0.7%，与预期持平，前月 0.2%。CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 剔除食品和能源的核心 CPI 同比 1.2%，前值 1.2%。核心 CPI 环比-0.1%，前月 0.2%。 PPI 同比-2.2%，低于预期的-2.0%，前月-2.1%。PPI 环比 0.1%，前月 0.1%。如何看待 11 月通胀数据？ CPI 环比符合季节性特征，翘尾支撑同比反弹。11 月 CPI环比-0.1%，略好于 2021-2024 年同期均值-0.2% （下文季节性对比均基于此口径），仍不及 2015-2019 年同期均值（0%）。同比方面，翘尾因素回升 0.6 个百分 点，推动 CPI同比回升 0.5pct 至 0.7%，创下年内新高。拆分来看： 一是食品环比上涨 0.5%，显著强于季节性（-0.5%），为主要拉动项。究其原因，受北方降温及南方暴雨的 双重供给冲击，鲜菜价格环比大涨 7.2%，显著高于往年季节性（-4.7%），单项拉动 CP ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：股债新阶段 复盘与思考: 12 月 10 日 ，债涨股跌的跷跷板效应依旧延续。股市延续剧烈分化状态，昨日领涨的科技概念今日低开高 走，政策预期引领下，地产板块与概念异军突起。债市暂未出现显著的实质利好，不过市场情绪较为积极，中长 端走出普涨行情。 权益市场低开高走。万得全 A 上涨 0.12%，全天成交额 1.79 万亿元，较昨日（12 月 9 日）缩量 1261 亿元。 港股方面，恒生指数和恒生科技分别上涨 0.42%和 0.48%。南向资金净流出 10.18 亿港元，其中小米集团净流入 6.20 亿港元，腾讯控股和中芯国际分别净流出 6.06 亿港元、4.51 亿港元。 指数触及支撑位后反弹。我们曾在《等待破局》中提及，若指数强势突破 11 月 21 日大跌前的点位（6230）， 这一点位就会从压力位转化为支撑位。今日万得全 A 早盘低开，一度下探至 6230 附近，之后市场开始回升，说明 这一支撑位比较牢靠。当前指数已经进入修复行情的第二阶段，震荡状态可能延续，10 月高点可 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 2026 债市，或比预期好一点 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之四 [Table_Summary] ► 2025，跌宕起伏 不同于 2023-2024 年的一帆风顺，2025 年的债市可谓是极具挑战。 长端利率的下行趋势早在年初便被打断，之后种种事件接力成为债市定价 主线，多空双方频繁上演"你方唱罢我登台"的戏码，激烈博弈之间，利 率走势大起大落。 2025 年同样是债市投资的变革之年，利率行情从"牛长熊短"切换 至"牛短熊长"，获取收益的难度呈指数级上升。一方面，上一年末的抢 跑行情，透支了来年的收益空间；另一方面，传统的定价框架遭遇挑战， 货币政策对"弱现实"不再敏感，风险资产沉寂多年之后觉醒，成为影响 利率定价的关键变量。 这些变化的背后，宽财政、稳货币、强风偏、严监管、弱现实，成为 关键词。宽财政和稳货币，奠定了债市震荡的格局；强风偏和严监管，营 造了牛短熊长的氛围；弱现实，成为被市场忽视的变量。这些变量在 2026 是否会延续，未来的行情又会如何演绎？ 请仔细阅 ...