►大行融出反弹，银行间杠杆抬升 银行间杠杆率回升。银行融出有所修复，本周（5 月 26-30 日）日均 银行体系融出规模回升至 3.56 万亿元，前一周为 3.02 万亿元。在此背景 下，银行间平均杠杆水平抬升，由前一周的 106.95%升至 107.18%。周内 来看，杠杆水平先升后降，周一至周四由 107.07%升至 107.35%，周五或 受跨月（跨假期）影响，杠杆水平快速降至 106.99%。 伴随平稳跨月、美国关税态度反复，非银机构杠杆率抬升，平均杠杆 水平由前一周的 111.66%升至 112.32%。周内来看，非银杠杆率整体呈连 续攀升的态势，由前一周五的 111.75%逐日抬升至周四的 112.66%，周五 小幅回落至 112.11%。 交易所杠杆率在持续抬升，平均杠杆水平由前一周的 123.28%小幅升 至 123.29%。周内来看，杠杆率"一波三折"，周三杠杆水平降至 122.90%的周内低点，周四短暂抬升后，周五再度降至 123.50%。 ►基金重新博弈久期 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 月末理财环比降 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略月报 风险提示：海外政策变化超预期，海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 1） 海外方面，美国特朗普关税政策一波三折，需持续关注中美贸易谈判进展。本周美国关税政策多次反复，引发 市场预期扰动。5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法院认定特朗普关税越权，"对等关税"和芬太尼关税将被取消，但 5 月 29 日，美国上诉法院就恢复实施了关税政策；5 月 30 日，美国总统特朗普表示，6 月 4 日起将把钢铁和铝 的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。中美谈判方面，美国财长贝森特称中国贸易谈判"有点停滞"，并暗示破局需两 国领导人的参与；白宫国家经济委员会主任表示，中美可能于本周就关税问题进行会谈。现阶段中美贸易谈判 节奏偏慢或部分出于谈判战术考虑，后续中美二阶段磋商仍是市场风险偏好的关键影响因 ...

证券研究报告|中小盘周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 广东核能产业联盟会员大会在深举行，重点关注核聚变产业链 [Table_Title2] ——中小盘周报 [Table_Summary] ►本周市场表现：A 股主要指数呈现下跌调整，环保、医 药生物等板块涨幅居前 本周（指 5 月 26 日至 5 月 30 日，下同）上证指数（申万，下 同）收于 3,347.49 点，下跌 0.03%；深证成指收于 10,040.63 点，下跌 0.91%；创业板指收于 1,993.19 点，下跌 1.40%。本周 大盘指数收于 3,412.78 点，下跌 1.25%；小盘指数收于 4,385.99 点，上涨 0.81%，小盘/大盘收盘指数比值为 1.29。 本周 31 个申万一级行业中，环保、医药生物等板块涨幅相对居 前，汽车、电力设备等板块跌幅相对较大。 本周全 A 市场中,古麒绒材、路桥信息等 10 只股票涨幅居前，利 君股份、郑中设计等 10 只股票跌幅居前。 ►海外视角：本周美股三大指数呈现齐涨态势，港股三大 指数呈现下跌调整 本周（指 5 月 26 日至 5 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 海外分布式储能边际变化，欧洲海风持续推进 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 国产机器人布局持续加速 我们认为，随着机器人进入具身智能阶段，应用场景落地加 快，商业化有望推动人形机器人量产落地；在降本需求的驱动 下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替代需求强烈，市场空间广 阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深度受益。此外，具备明确 应用场景、能够率先落地应用的公司，将为业绩兑现和产业化 加速发展创造机遇，具备上下游产业链卡位优势的相关标的预 计受益显著。 2.新能源汽车 多家品牌 5 月新能源汽车交付量/销量公布 我们认为，5 月部分新能源车企交付量/销量表现优异，同环比 实现增长。具体来看，小鹏、零跑交付量/销量同比增长显著， 同比增速均在 100%以上，理想、极氪交付量/销量环比增长较 好，环比增速高于 20%。随着电池等核心性能体现环节技术不断 优化，带来新增优质供给增加，叠加汽车以旧换新政策、电动 车智能化转型等因素的推动 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [Table_Title] "九天"首飞在即，低空智能网联加速布局 [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、抢先布局卫星领域，推动卫星通信网络建设 近日央视新闻报道，"九天"无人机 04 架机已完成机体结构装 配，正在进行系统安装与测试等工作。预计今年 6 月底完成无 人机首飞任务。 2025 年 3 月，国家发改委发布《关于 2024 年国民经济和社会 发展计划执行情况与 2025 年国民经济和社会发展计划草案的 报告》提出，2025 年"出台促进低空经济高质量发展的政策" "适度超前研究布局低空智能网联等基础设施""推动低空装 备研制应用"等具体部署。 其他相关受益标的包括通感一体的天线毫米波产业链中兴通讯、 通宇通信、灿勤科技等；短波超短波、无线中继相关产业链海格 通信、七一二、烽火电子等；卫星通信产业链海格通信、上海瀚 讯、铖昌科技等；北斗产业链华测导航、海格通信等。 3、风险提示 技术发展及标准应用不及预期；应用推广不及预期；系统性风 险。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_In ...

► 市场行情回顾 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第 21 周（实际交易日为 2025.5.26-2025.5.30）上证 指数下跌 0.03%，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.08%，创业板指数下跌 1.4%。恒生指数下跌 1.32%，恒生互联网指数下跌 0.91%，行 业领先恒生指数 0.41pct。SW 传媒指数上涨 1.74%，领先创业 板指数 3.14pct，在申万一级 31 个行业涨跌幅排名中位列第 6 位。子行业中互联网服务、影视和广告营销位列前三位，分 别为上涨 2.88%、上涨 2.76%和上涨 2.06%。 ► 核心观点&投资建议 四月游戏收入同比增长超二成，长线产品驱动增长。伽马数 据显示，2025 年 4 月中国游戏市场规模达 273.51 亿元，同比 增长 21.93%，其中移动游戏同比增长 28.41%，出海收入同比 增长 9.62%，主要增长动力来自《王者荣耀》《原神》等长线 产品和《Last War》等出海产品。我们认为，长线驱动收入增 长，凸显当下产业长期健康发展趋势，看好头部厂商通过 IP 运营和内容迭代构建的持续盈利能力，以及双端互通和出海 布局带来的增量空间。 ...

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 前五个月全部组合跑赢基准——盈利预期期限结构选股月报 202506 [Table_Summary] ► 盈利预期期限结构因子 分析师在某一时点会对上市公司未来多年的盈利做出预 测，我们将预期盈利随未来年度变化的趋势称为盈利预期期 限结构。 盈利预期期限结构因子历史表现良好，走势稳定性高。 将盈利预期期限结构"动量 ff"因子与传统分析师预期 调升因子合成后，得到的"合成动量 ff"因子走势进一步改 善，兼具高收益与稳定性。 ► 选股组合表现 在沪深 300、中证 500、中证 800、中证 1000 内分别选择 "合成动量 ff"因子值排名前 50、50、100、100 名的股票， 构成选股组合，组合历史表现良好。 2025 年 5 月，沪深 300 选股组合、中证 800 选股组合、 中证 1000 选股组合跑输基准，超额收益分别为-0.15%、- 0.32%、-0.32%；中证 500 选股组合跑赢基准，超额收益为 0.57%。 2025 年前 5 个月，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 8 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The tungsten price has increased week-on-week due to a tight supply of upstream raw materials, which is expected to persist in the short term [12][21] - Nickel prices have decreased, with smelters continuing to face losses; however, the approval of increased nickel mining quotas in Indonesia may enhance supply expectations for 2025 [13][24] - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but a significant reduction in global supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo could support prices in the near future [28][25] - Antimony prices have declined, but the domestic supply remains tight, with potential for price convergence with high overseas prices if exports resume [29][33] - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply, despite some recovery in purchasing sentiment from downstream manufacturers [7][8] - Rare earth prices are showing strength, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, driven by export controls and supply constraints [9][14] Summary by Sections Nickel Industry - As of May 30, LME nickel settled at $15,150.00 per ton, down 0.36% from May 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.37% to 199,380 tons [21] - Domestic nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand from stainless steel manufacturers and potential export bans from the Philippines [21][24] Cobalt Industry - As of May 30, electrolytic cobalt was priced at 234,900 yuan per ton, down 0.82% from May 23, with overall weak demand from downstream manufacturers [25][28] - The supply situation is expected to tighten significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [28] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to 217,500 yuan per ton as of May 29, down 2.25% from May 23, with ongoing supply tightness [29][31] - Export controls from China may lead to a significant price increase in overseas markets [29][33] Lithium Industry - Battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 60,700 yuan per ton as of May 30, down 3.70% from May 23, with inventory levels indicating a slight decrease [7][8] - The market is expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining lithium ore prices [8] Rare Earth Industry - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have increased, with praseodymium oxide averaging 450,300 yuan per ton, up 0.88% from May 23 [9][14] - Export controls from China are likely to tighten supply in overseas markets, supporting price increases [9][14] Tungsten Industry - As of May 30, white tungsten concentrate was priced at 167,500 yuan per ton, up 2.45% from May 23, driven by tight raw material supply [12][21] - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 has been reduced, further tightening supply expectations [12][21]

Group 1: Market Performance - Overseas equity indices mostly rose, with the German DAX reaching a new high during the week[1] - The Nasdaq increased by 2.01% in May, leading other asset classes with a monthly gain of 9.56%[1] - A-shares experienced a narrow consolidation with the CSI 1000 rising by 0.62%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points[2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points[2] - Japan's broad CPI reached 3.6% in March 2025, indicating upward inflation pressure[31] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. steel tariff was raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025[26] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, but the appellate court temporarily reinstated them[23] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive increase[40] Group 4: Bond Market Trends - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fluctuated, with a recent drop of 10 basis points to 4.410%[10] - Japanese long-term bond yields have been rising due to increased inflation expectations and a tightening monetary policy[31] - Domestic bond rates remained stable, with slight declines in long-term yields observed[1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the defense and military industry is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The successful recovery of the rocket marks a significant breakthrough from 0 to 1, indicating a dual inflection point of "technological breakthrough" and "scale explosion" in China's commercial aerospace sector [4] - The global commercial aerospace sector is accelerating the development of reusable rockets and low-orbit satellite constellations, with various applications such as satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars, computing satellites, and space broadband emerging [4][9] - The expansion of satellite communication frequency spectrum by the FCC is expected to trigger a new round of military upgrades and address the spectrum scarcity issue faced by the commercial aerospace and satellite internet industries [7][8] Summary by Sections Events - Event 1: Arrow Technology's "Yuanhang No. 1" rocket successfully completed China's first flight test for "liquid oxygen methane + stainless steel + offshore soft landing recovery," marking a major breakthrough in reusable technology [2] - Event 2: Geely plans to launch multiple satellites, including the "Qianli Haohan" satellite, to achieve global real-time satellite communication services [2] - Event 3: China Telecom's satellite communication division signed a cooperation agreement with Laos for the overseas commercialization of satellite communication technology [3] - Event 4: The FCC announced a significant expansion of available satellite communication frequency spectrum to support the development of low-orbit satellites and next-generation satellite broadband services [3] Reusable Rockets - Reusable liquid rockets are transforming from "consumables" to "durable tools," enabling large-scale launches and significantly reducing costs [5] - The cost of a single launch can be reduced from "hundreds of millions" to "tens of millions," a decrease of 70% compared to traditional expendable rockets [5] - Multiple commercial aerospace companies are set to conduct the first flights of reusable rockets in 2025, including Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 [5][6] Spectrum Resources - The scarcity of satellite frequency resources has led to conflicts among countries, with the FCC's expansion of satellite communication frequency spectrum aimed at alleviating this issue [7][8] - The FCC's consultation on using underutilized frequency bands is expected to support the needs of large-scale satellite constellation systems like SpaceX's Starlink [8] Satellite Applications - The value of satellite direct connection services is immense, with applications such as satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars becoming a reality [9] - Huawei's "Space Broadband" plan aims to establish a satellite network for global high-speed data transmission, with a target of achieving 100Gbps+ interstellar optical internet by 2030 [10] - Geely's satellite network will support intelligent safety driving systems, ensuring high-precision positioning even in remote areas [10] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the progress of reusable rockets and satellite constellation networking, particularly breakthroughs in applications like satellite direct connection for mobile phones and cars [11] - Beneficiary companies include Putian Technology, Shanghai Huanxun, Zhenlei Technology, and China Satellite Communications [11][12][13]