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农林牧渔行业周报第44期:行业亏损持续,继续关注生猪养殖-20251229
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-29 03:27
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The pork industry continues to face losses, with a focus on pig farming opportunities. The average price of live pigs is 11.59 CNY/kg, down 0.46% week-on-week. The total breeding sow inventory is 39.9 million heads, down 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing ongoing losses, with self-bred and purchased pig farming losses at 130.11 CNY/head and 162.80 CNY/head respectively. The recent anti-dumping ruling may alleviate domestic pork supply pressure, leading to accelerated capacity reduction [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated winter crop seed supervision checks to ensure seed safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting. The checks focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates of key varieties. Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.46% from the previous week. The average price for pig futures is 11,469 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.07% increase. The average weight of pigs post-slaughter is 89.57 kg, with a month-on-month increase of 3.21% in slaughter volume [12][62][65]. Recommended Stocks - For pig farming, recommended stocks include: 1. Livestock sector: Lihua Stock, Muyuan Food, Shuanghui Development, Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Wens Foodstuff 2. Feed sector: Haida Group 3. Animal health sector: Jinhai Biological, Biological Shares, Placo, and Zhongmu Shares [2][12].
公募REITs周速览:市场渐暖
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-28 14:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 1014.8 points this week (December 22 - 26, 2025), up 1.56% weekly, returning above 1000 points after consecutive days of decline. The total market capitalization of 78 listed REITs in China reached 219.9 billion yuan as of December 19, a 2.71% increase from the previous period, with a circulating market capitalization of 121 billion yuan [1][12]. - In the secondary market, most asset types rose, and trading activity increased marginally. Except for municipal environmental protection (-1.48%) and energy facilities (+0.03%)经营权 REITs, 67 REITs closed higher, and only 11 closed lower. The top - performing sectors were rental housing (+3.59%), warehousing and logistics (+2.57%), and industrial parks (+2.16%) [1][22]. - In the primary market, on December 26, 2025, the China Asset Management Xiamen Torch High - tech Industrial Park REIT was officially submitted to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market - **General Performance** - Most REITs rose, with only municipal environmental protection and energy facilities showing weak performance. Trading activity increased, with daily average trading volume, turnover, and turnover rate rising by 35.69%, 38.96%, and 0.12 percentage points respectively compared to the previous week [1][22][54]. - **Sector - by - Sector Performance** - **Rental Housing**: Rose 3.59%, with all 8 individual bonds rising. The sector has good liquidity and normal project fundamentals, and is sensitive to discount rate adjustments. The current distribution rate of 3.17% is still attractive compared to 2.79% on July 1. Projects like China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing, Huatai - PineBridge Suzhou Hengtai can be focused on. China Resources Youchao's first rights offering by allotment to original holders increased the distribution rate by 21bp, and its current distribution rate of about 3.16% is still relatively high [2][24][27]. - **Warehousing and Logistics**: Rose 2.57%, with only Hua'an Waigaoqiao falling (-2.48%). Different sub - markets in this field vary greatly. Hua'an Waigaoqiao has excellent fundamentals and location, and the recent decline may be due to a large number of restricted shares being released. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) ProLogis has a diversified asset portfolio, strong management ability, and a high distribution rate, suitable for allocation - oriented accounts [3][30][31]. - **Municipal Environmental Protection**: Fell 1.48%, mainly dragged down by Jinan Energy Heating and Shaoxing Raw Water. Jinan Energy Heating has a strong asset monopoly, stable heating - season revenues, and controllable external heat source costs, and its distribution rate has significantly increased [4][34][35]. - **Transportation Facilities**: Rose 1.66%, recovering after the recent disturbance of principal - interest separation. Focus on road assets with stable operations and good traffic - attracting effects from surrounding road networks. Guojin China Railway Construction REIT plans to raise funds for project expansion and renovation, and the expected internal rate of return after the project expansion may be higher than before [6][37][38]. - **Industrial Parks**: Rose 2.16%, with all individual bonds rising. CICC Chongqing Liangjiang and Bosera Tianjin Binhai New Area Industrial Park, which have a distribution - adjustment mechanism and good fundamentals, can be considered for their rebound opportunities after previous restricted - share releases and market adjustments [47]. Primary Market - On December 26, 2025, the CICC Xiamen Torch Industrial Park REIT was officially submitted to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The original equity holders are Xiamen High - tech Entrepreneurship Center Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Torch High - tech Zone Investment Promotion Service Center Co., Ltd., both subsidiaries of Xiamen Torch Group. As of December 26, 2025, there is 1 project issued but not yet listed, 8 projects with exchange feedback, 5 projects accepted by the exchange, and 1 project submitted to the exchange [7][60][63].
投资策略周报:岁末年初多头势力聚集,抢跑“春季躁动”行情-20251228
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-28 11:04
Market Review - A-shares led global indices with major broad-based indices generally rising, particularly the CSI 500 and ChiNext, while the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day winning streak approaching 4000 points [1] - The market liquidity is abundant, with A-share trading volume continuing to expand, reaching over 2 trillion yuan on Friday, and the financing balance exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, setting a historical high [1] - In terms of style, small-cap and growth styles outperformed, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense, and electric equipment leading gains, while beauty care, social services, and banking sectors declined [1] Market Outlook - Multiple funds are rushing to capitalize on the "spring rally," with a focus on buying on dips. The uncertainty in overseas monetary policy is dissipating, and the upcoming Chinese New Year and "Two Sessions" are expected to support risk appetite [2] - The "spring rally" conditions are accumulating, with key factors including reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and catalysts to boost risk appetite such as domestic policies and external risk mitigation [2] - The latest risk premium for the CSI 300 is at the median level of the past decade, indicating reasonable A-share valuations, while the central bank emphasizes continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [2] Fund Flows - The net subscription of A500 ETFs has become one of the important sources of incremental funds for A-shares at year-end, with a cumulative net subscription of 90.8 billion yuan in December, the highest since April [3] - The top six A500 ETF products saw a net inflow of 97.2 billion yuan since December, reflecting accelerated inflow of institutional funds [3] Financing and Currency Trends - The financing balance of A-shares reached a historical high of 2.53 trillion yuan as of December 25, with a net buy of 72 billion yuan in financing funds since December, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [4] - The strong performance of the RMB is favorable for foreign capital inflow, with the offshore RMB briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark against the USD, reflecting market confidence in the Chinese economy [4] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Focus on growth themes benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, innovative drugs, and energy storage [5] - Pay attention to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" price increases, such as chemicals, energy metals, and new energy [5] - Look for potential catalytic opportunities in the consumer sector due to the deepening of consumption policies [5]
计算机行业周报:太空算力新基建:太阳翼-20251228
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-28 08:01
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 太空算力新基建—太阳翼 计算机行业周报 [Table_Title2] 本周观点 (一)柔性太阳翼助力大规模星座建设 2025 年 12 月 26 日,长征八号甲于海南商业航天发射场成功发射 卫星互联网低轨 17 组卫星,任务隶属中国星网(GW)星座。该 发射场 2025 年发射成功率 100%,并计划 2026 年执行 20 至 30 次 发射。 国网星座规划约 1.3 万颗卫星,采用高低轨协同双层设计,旨在 提供低时延通信与高分辨率对地观测服务。低轨卫星运行在200- 2000 公里轨道,是构建卫星互联网的核心。在此背景下,柔性太 阳翼因能解决大发电面积与小收纳体积的矛盾,成为关键发展方 向。其重量可减轻 20%-40%,收纳体积缩小 60%以上,展开面积 显著扩大。 中国已发展出刚性、半刚性和柔性太阳翼。中国空间站应用了柔 性太阳翼,并采用世界首创的"二次展开"技术。风云四号 03 星采用独特的 T 型"单翅膀"太阳翼设计。银河航天成功发射了 全球首颗搭载卷式全柔性太阳翼的卫星,其可卷绕、高 ...
有色:能源金属行业周报:短期锂价仍持续看涨,看好价格重估背景下的关键金属全面行情-20251227
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-27 15:40
证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 短期锂价仍持续看涨,看好价格重估背景下的 关键金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►印尼 26 年镍矿配额或下调叠加对镍矿伴生资源额外 征税税负,对镍矿价格或有支撑 截止到 12 月 24 日,LME 镍现货结算价报收 15435 美元/ 吨,较 12 月 17 日上涨 8.13%,LME 镍总库存为 255696 吨, 较 12 月 17 日增加 0.67%;沪镍报收 12.68 万元/吨,较 12 月 19 日上涨 8.38%,沪镍库存为 45,280 吨,较 12 月 19 日增加 0.02%;截止到 12 月 26 日,硫酸镍报收 26,900 元/吨,较 12 月 19 日价格下跌 2.36%。根据 SMM,印尼原料方面,火法矿 方面,从供应角度来看,印尼主要镍矿产区正处于活跃雨季, 导致部分矿山生产受阻。截止这周,印尼林业部执法行动仍在 延续,受此监管压力,矿山普遍维持惜售/观望态度,出货节 奏趋于保守。需求端来看,NPI 冶炼厂的采购 ...
海外策略周报:日韩市场波动趋势仍在,港股市场分化-20251227
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-27 15:22
Global Market Overview - The global market experienced fluctuations, with the US stock market showing low volatility due to the Christmas holiday, leading to a temporary reduction in trading volume [1][16] - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio rose to 37.61, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached 44.37, indicating high valuations in the US tech sector [1][16] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio remains above 40 for over a month, suggesting potential pressure on US equities, particularly in financial, communication services, consumer, and industrial sectors [1][16] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices increased by 1.4%, 1.22%, and 1.2% respectively during the week [2][11] - The S&P 500 materials sector saw the largest gain of 2.38%, while the consumer staples sector experienced a slight decline of 0.1% [11][15] - Notable stocks in the S&P 500 included Freeport-McMoRan, Micron Technology, and AvalonBay Communities, with gains of 7.91%, 7.1%, and 6.76% respectively [15][18] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 0.5%, 0.16%, and 0.44% respectively [24][28] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.37%, with the materials sector leading gains at 4.3%, while healthcare saw a decline of 1.76% [26][28] - Top performers in the Hang Seng Index included CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, HSBC Holdings, and Cheung Kong Infrastructure, with increases of 6.95%, 3.77%, and 3.26% respectively [28][29] Economic Data - In Q3 2025, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.9%, up from 2.6% previously, indicating inflationary pressures [2][36] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.3%, an increase from 3.8% [36][37] - Japan's unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%, while industrial production decreased by 2.13% year-on-year [38][42]
北京新房成交大幅反弹
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-27 15:22
证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 北京新房成交大幅反弹 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 1)政策跟踪 12 月 24 日,北京四部门联合发文,调降非京籍及多孩家庭购房门槛,标志着一线城市核心区限购政策进 一步边际松动。内容主要聚焦两方面:一是放宽非京籍准入,将五环内购房社保/个税年限由"3 年"降至"2 年",五环外由"2 年"降至"1 年";二是支持多孩家庭,明确二孩及以上家庭可在五环内多购一套住房(京 籍上限增至 3 套,非京籍增至 2 套)。此次调整旨在通过降低刚需入市门槛及打开改善性需求空间,切实落实 中央经济工作会议关于稳定房地产市场的精神。 政策定向扩容需求,成交放量系年末翘尾与情绪共振。本次政策精准锚定非京籍刚需及多孩改善群体,预 计将有效扩大潜在购房需求基数。从高频数据看,本周北京新房成交环比激增 79%,需理性看待的是,由于 新政于 24 日才正式生效(仅覆盖统计周期 19-25 日的尾部),本周成交放量更多归因于房企年末冲量的季节性 因素,政策短期内主要体现为预期的改善与 ...
银行融出5.6万亿,创历史新高
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-27 15:21
证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 银行融出 5.6 万亿,创历史新高 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况:跨年将至,资金面延续平稳 12 月 22-26 日,资金面维持均衡宽松。周一至周三(22-24 日)央行逆回购连 续净回笼,R001 依然稳步在 1.35%附近,DR001 也持续下破年内低位,由 1.27% 逐日下行至 1.26%。周四(25 日)起,银行类机构 7 天资金可跨年,DR007 快速 走升,单日上行 10bp,周五继续抬升 4bp,收于 1.52%。参考历史同期,14bp 的 价格升幅略高于 2023、2024 年 8、10bp 的水平,不过从绝对点位上看,当前 1.52%水平的跨年资金利率并不算太贵。此外,由于部分非银机构 29 日拆借 7 天资 金才可跨年,R007 上行幅度相对不大,仅较周内低点上行 2bp,收于 1.53%。 资金面连续稳定的背后,是银行端资金供给相对充裕。12 月 22-26 日,银行体 系日均净融出 5.45 万亿元(前一周为 4.90 ...
2026年投资展望系列之十:2026地产,关注好房子、好土地
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-26 06:52
Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the land auction market saw a reversal with a national premium rate of 5.5%, up from an average below 4% from 2022 to 2024[1] - The land transfer fees in major cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu increased by 11% year-on-year, while the overall national transfer fees dropped by 8%[1] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes increased by 6% year-on-year in 15 cities, while new home transaction volume fell by 13% in 38 cities[1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - New home prices remained more resilient compared to second-hand homes, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand home prices have been declining since May 2025[1] - In November 2025, second-hand home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen fell by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 1.0% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.8%, 4.6%, and 4.8%[1] - The average price of luxury homes in cities like Shanghai and Beijing has increased significantly, with Shanghai's highest land price reaching 20.1 million yuan per square meter[1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, land transfer fees are expected to decline further, influenced by low willingness from city investment companies to acquire land and potential confidence issues among market-oriented developers[2] - The new home market is anticipated to focus on luxury and improved residential properties, driven by the cancellation of price limits and the introduction of high-quality land supply[2] - The second-hand home market may experience further differentiation, with quality properties maintaining prices while older neighborhoods face continued price declines[2]
资产配置日报:上涨共识初现-20251225
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-25 15:22
Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]