证券研究报告 经济渐入稳态，风偏继续提升 ——2026年经济与资产展望 大类资产首席分析师：孙付 SAC NO：S1120520050004 2025年11月4日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 核心观点 经济基本面展望： 政策展望： 2 ● 2026是"十五五"开局之年，技术革命浪潮风起云涌、科技自强自立迈向新征程，中国经济的全要素劳动生产率和 产业竞争力将继续提升，供给端优势将进一步显现。 外需：产业和产品的较强竞争力是支撑，中美经贸关系步入阶段性缓和，出口多元化格局进一步塑造，汇率保持相对弹 性，出口有望总体稳定。 内需：扩大内需是战略基点，短期政策刺激和长期机制完善将共同促内需。财政和货币政策将继续积极加码发力支持消 费和有效投资。统一大市场建设和要素市场化改革将清理内需扩张障碍，增进内需潜能。 ● 物价：在食品价格企稳、文娱消费延续回升、反内卷破除恶性价格竞争下，2026年物价将回升，预计CPI中枢0.6%， PPI中枢-0.8%，下半年GDP平减指数将转正。 ● GDP增速：综合经济增长趋势特征与宏观政策效能，预计2026年实际GDP增速在4.5%附近，名义GDP增速约4.7%，名义 增 ...

Market Overview - In October, the equity market experienced three phases: "TACO - Defense - Offense" with a cumulative drop of 2.34% from October 14-20, driven by heightened defense strategies following tariff threats from Trump[1][9]. - By the end of October, positive news led to a market rebound, with AI and semiconductor sectors leading the gains[1][9]. Structural Risks - Despite a stable long-term trend, structural risks became prominent, characterized by concentrated trading directions and a high proportion of overvalued stocks, leading to decreased market value for money[1][22]. - As of late October, the concentration of trading volume among the top 5% of stocks reached 46%, indicating potential risks[22]. Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is expected to face valuation fluctuations as year-end approaches, with many absolute return institutions needing to realize profits by November and December[2][36]. - As of October 31, the valuation center for bonds priced at 80, 100, and 130 yuan was 52.17%, 33.15%, and 15.60%, respectively, showing slight increases from September[15]. Investment Strategy - The prevailing strategy suggests that while the bull market logic remains intact, structural risks may lead to volatility, making it essential to adjust allocations accordingly[3][62]. - Investors are advised to increase exposure to dividend stocks during market upswings and actively position in thematic investments during corrections[3][62]. Economic Indicators - The October PMI indicated a weak economic foundation, with a composite PMI of 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, marking the lowest since early 2023[3][65].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The computer industry showed significant improvement in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 328.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.28% [1][15] - Net profit for the industry increased by 25.19% year-on-year, totaling 10.54 billion, with over 19 companies experiencing more than double profit growth [1][16] - The gross profit margin for the industry declined by 2.46 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2025 [1][31] - Management expenses saw a significant decrease, while sales and R&D expenses remained stable [1][31] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - As of November 3, 2025, the computer industry reported a total revenue of 3280.13 billion for Q3 2025, marking a 5.28% increase compared to the same period last year [1][15] - Approximately 44% of companies in the sector reported negative revenue growth, with 145 companies (43.81%) experiencing a decline [15] Profitability Analysis - The industry achieved a net profit of 105.39 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 25.19% increase year-on-year [1][16] - A total of 154 companies reported losses, amounting to 62.15 billion, with the top 20 loss-making companies accounting for 53.86% of the total losses [16][26] Segment Performance - The industry is divided into 17 segments, with 10 segments reporting positive revenue growth, including: - Quantum Computing (+49.57%) - AI Computing (+12.88%) - Data Elements (+10.23%) - Financial IT (+10.74%) [2][33] Fund Holdings - As of November 3, 2025, the top five companies by fund holdings in the computer industry are: - Kingsoft Office - Zhongke Shuguang - iFlytek - Hikvision - Inspur Information [3] Investment Recommendations - Beneficial targets include: - AI Applications: RunDa Medical, Wanjing Technology, Kingsoft Office, etc. - Computing Integrated Machine Industry Chain: KaiPu Cloud, Yuncong Technology, etc. - Data Element Industry Chain: Taiji Co., Shensanda, etc. [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more in the upcoming period [42]. Core Insights - The company, Yunhan Xincheng, is a leading B2B enterprise in the electronic components sector, focusing on the R&D, production, and procurement needs of small-batch electronic components [1][2]. - The electronic components distribution industry in China has a low market share concentration among leading companies, indicating significant growth potential [2][21]. - The company has demonstrated strong technological innovation capabilities, holding 17 invention patents and 255 software copyrights, and has developed a SaaS tool, HiBOM, for efficient BOM parsing [2][37]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic components industry is a foundational sector for the electronic information industry, characterized by a large market scale and diverse product categories, including semiconductors, passive components, and connectors [8]. - The Chinese electronic components distribution market has grown from 12 trillion yuan in 2015 to 18.5 trillion yuan in 2022, reflecting a rapid expansion [21][24]. Company Overview - Yunhan Xincheng's main business includes B2B sales of electronic components and PCBA services, primarily through its self-operated online platform [25][26]. - The company achieved revenues of 4.333 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected decline in 2023 and 2024, followed by a recovery in 2025, where it reported a revenue of 1.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 17.82% increase year-on-year [1][30]. Company Highlights - The company has established a robust supplier network with over 4,200 suppliers and more than 2,500 engaged in data collaboration, offering a wide range of products across various applications [3][38]. - The registered user base exceeds 696,500, with over 158,900 cumulative enterprise customers, indicating a strong market presence [3][38]. - The company has been recognized for its excellence in the electronic industry, winning awards such as the "Annual Excellence in Electronic Industry Internet" [3][38].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the forecast period [4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the lithium concentrate production from two operational projects decreased by 5% to 137,000 tons, while the sales volume increased by 5% to 142,000 tons. The average selling price for lithium concentrate was $849 per ton, reflecting a 31% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The recovery rates and capacity optimization projects at Mt Marion and Wodgina have been successfully completed, with Wodgina achieving an average recovery rate of 67% [1]. - The report highlights significant improvements in production and sales volumes for lithium concentrate, with Mt Marion's production increasing by 18% quarter-on-quarter and 7% year-on-year, while Wodgina's production also showed positive growth [2][5]. Summary by Sections Lithium Mining - **Overall Performance**: In Q3 2025, the total lithium concentrate production was 137,000 tons, with a weighted average selling price of $849 per ton, up 31% from the previous quarter [1]. - **Mt Marion**: The total material moved decreased by 46%, while ore mined increased by 58%. The average recovery rate was 59%, and the average selling price was $797 per ton, up 31% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - **Wodgina**: The total material moved decreased by 12%, with ore mined increasing by 15%. The average selling price for lithium concentrate was $881 per ton, reflecting a 31% increase [3][5]. Iron Ore - **Onslow Iron**: The quarterly production was 8.445 million tons, a 37% increase quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of $92 per ton [7]. - **Pilbara Hub**: The quarterly production was 2.419 million tons, a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of $87 per ton [8]. Financial Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the company's liquidity and net debt remained stable at 1.1 billion AUD and 5.4 billion AUD, respectively. The capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately 400 million AUD, consistent with previous expectations [12].

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 ►公司 2025Q3 生产经营情况 1）Mt Weld（稀土氧化物 REO） 2025Q3，公司稀土氧化物(REO)产量为 3,993 吨，环比增 长 24%，同比增长 47%。 2025Q3，公司稀土氧化物(REO)销量为 3,691 吨，环比增 长 31%，同比增长 30%。这得益于强劲的产量和主要战略客户 （包括日本磁铁制造商客户）需求的增长，这些客户不断赢得 新的终端客户合同。 2025Q3，稀土氧化物(REO)平均实现价格为 54.3 澳元/公 斤，环比下跌 10%，同比上涨 28%。 Mt Weld 团队已完成培训，并准备于 2025 年四季度开始 运营 Mt Weld 扩建项目二期工厂。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 4 日 [Table_Title] Lynas 2025Q3 REO 产量同比增长 47%至 3,993 吨，NdPr 产量同比增长 19%至 2,003 吨，实现镝 铽产量 9 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 混合动力电站的建设和调试工作已接近尾声。2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The lithium business at Greenbushes experienced a production decrease of 6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 21% year-on-year (YoY), with Q3 2025 production at 320,000 tons and sales at 301,000 tons, reflecting a 27% QoQ and 23% YoY decline in sales [1][2] - The average realized price for lithium concentrate was $730 per ton, showing a 1% increase QoQ [1] - The Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant saw a production increase of 31% QoQ and 85% YoY, with Q3 2025 production at 2,775 tons and sales at 2,921 tons, marking a 68% QoQ increase [2][3] - The unit cash production cost for lithium concentrate rose by 6% QoQ to A$388 per ton, reflecting a 40% increase YoY [2][3] - The Nova nickel project reported a production decrease of 33% QoQ and 7% YoY, with Q3 2025 nickel production at 3,429 tons and sales at 3,320 tons [6] - The average realized price for nickel was A$22,830 per ton, down 2% QoQ, while the unit cash cost increased by 72% to A$6.84 per pound [6] Summary by Sections Lithium Business - Greenbushes lithium mine produced 320,000 tons in Q3 2025, down 6% QoQ and 21% YoY, with sales of 301,000 tons, down 27% QoQ and 23% YoY [1][2] - Average realized price for lithium concentrate was $730 per ton, up 1% QoQ [1] - Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant produced 2,775 tons, up 31% QoQ and 85% YoY, with sales of 2,921 tons, up 68% QoQ [2][3] - Unit cash production cost for lithium concentrate increased to A$388 per ton, up 6% QoQ and 40% YoY [2][3] Nickel Business - Nova project produced 3,429 tons of nickel, down 33% QoQ and 7% YoY, with sales of 3,320 tons, down 5% QoQ and 1% YoY [6] - Average realized price for nickel was A$22,830 per ton, down 2% QoQ, while unit cash cost rose to A$6.84 per pound, up 72% [6] Financial Performance - Company revenue for Q3 2025 was A$105.3 million, down 17% QoQ and 26% YoY, primarily due to reduced copper shipments and lower nickel prices [7] - The underlying EBITDA for Nova project was A$24.9 million, down 50% QoQ [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a turnaround in Q3, achieving profitability after losses in previous quarters, with a net profit of 138 million yuan in Q3, a significant improvement from previous losses [2][3] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.493 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 75.27% to 287 million yuan [2] - The company has seen a recovery in chicken prices since August, leading to profitability in its chicken business, while the pig farming segment continues to benefit from improved production efficiency and declining costs [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 138 million yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [3] - The company sold 415 million yellow feathered chickens, generating sales revenue of 10.059 billion yuan [4] - The average selling price of chickens in Q1, Q2, and Q3 was 10.95, 10.55, and 11.49 yuan per kilogram, respectively [4] Business Segments - The chicken business reported a net loss of 84 million yuan in the first three quarters, but Q3 showed a profit of approximately 50 million yuan [3] - The pig farming segment sold 1.5058 million pigs, generating sales revenue of 2.705 billion yuan, with a net profit of approximately 354 million yuan [5] Cost Management - The complete cost of chicken in Q3 was approximately 11.4 yuan per kilogram, up from 11 yuan in the first half of the year, but still manageable due to rising prices [4][6] - The complete cost of pigs has been decreasing, reaching 12.6 yuan per kilogram in Q3, with a target of 12 yuan by the end of the year [5][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in the chicken industry, with an anticipated increase in market share due to the exit of less competitive players [6] - Projections for revenue and net profit for 2025-2027 are 17.924 billion yuan, 8.37 billion yuan; 21.016 billion yuan, 18.29 billion yuan; and 23.589 billion yuan, 23.38 billion yuan, respectively [7]

1. Market Performance - The CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1045.73 points this week (October 27 - 31, 2025), up 0.06% weekly, continuing last week's stabilization trend. The market fluctuated during the week, with a 0.44% drop on Monday, a cumulative 1.1% increase on Tuesday and Wednesday driven by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading information, and a cumulative 0.59% retracement on Thursday and Friday after the concentrated disclosure of the third - quarter reports. From a monthly perspective, the total return index has declined for four consecutive months, and the market remains weak [1][9]. - This week, 49 REITs closed higher and 27 closed lower, and the trading activity of REITs increased. As of Friday, the total market value of 76 listed REITs in China reached 220.6 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 110.4 billion yuan [2][9]. - In terms of major asset classes, although the overall performance of REITs was average this week, four types of REITs, including consumer facilities, rental housing, municipal environmental protection, and new - type facilities, showed obvious recovery and outperformed the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Hang Seng Tech and SHFE Gold declined by more than 2.5% [12]. 2. Sector - by - Sector Analysis 2.1 Municipal Environmental Protection - The sector exceeded expectations, with better recovery in charging prices or processing volumes. As the heating season approaches, heating - related projects are worth attention. For example, the available distribution amount of the Fuguo Shouchuang Water Service REIT in the third quarter increased by 30.12% year - on - year, mainly due to better accounts receivable collection in the Shenzhen project than in the same period last year, an increase in sewage treatment volume by 1.23% year - on - year, and an increase in the average sewage treatment unit price by 7.05% year - on - year [16][20]. - The available distribution amount of the China Aviation Capital Shougang Green Energy REIT in the third quarter increased by 97.4% year - on - year, mainly due to the collection of garbage treatment fees by the Beijing Urban Management Commission, an increase in national subsidy payments compared with the same period last year, and an increase in the amount of domestic garbage treatment [21]. 2.2 Data Centers - The sector is strong under the AIDC intelligent computing power boom, and the computing power demand is expected to remain strong in the future. There are currently only 2 REITs in this sector. Although the projects have a single tenant and a long - term lease, the tenants are China's three major telecommunications operators, with high reliability. At current prices, the distribution rates of the two REITs are below 4%, and Runze Technology is slightly higher than Wan Guo [3][24]. 2.3 Consumer Facilities - The sector enters the performance sprint period at the end of the year. The performance in the third quarter was generally stable, and the annualized distribution rate in the third quarter ranged from 3.59% (Huaxia Huarun Commercial) to 5.53% (E Fund Huawai Market). It is recommended to focus on projects with high distribution rates, stable rental performance, and good consumption scenarios, such as E Fund Huawai Market, Huaan Bailian Consumption, Jashi Wumei Consumption, and Huaxia Shouchuang Outlets [26]. 2.4 Rental Housing - The sector's performance is stable, with a high occupancy rate. Multiple projects are in the process of expansion. The annualized distribution rate in the third quarter ranged from 2.69% (Red Clay Innovation Shenzhen Affordable Housing) to 4.02% (Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing). After the bond market stabilizes, it can be the first choice for investment [32]. 2.5 Industrial Parks - The sector continued to face pressure in the third quarter, with the distribution rate ranging from 1.90% (Jianxin Zhongguancun) to 5.73% (Huaxia Hefei High - tech). The projects are significantly differentiated, and it is recommended to focus on park bonds with an occupancy rate starting with "9" [36]. 2.6 Warehousing and Logistics - The sector is still affected by the impact of new supply. Projects with a large proportion of related - party leases can resist certain demand competition. It is recommended to focus on Red Clay Innovation Yantian Port, Jashi JD Warehouse Infrastructure, and Southern SF Logistics, which have a relatively high proportion of related - party leases [47]. 2.7 Transportation Facilities - The sector is significantly affected by surrounding competing projects. The passenger and freight traffic of road assets in the eastern region has recovered better overall. It is recommended to focus on road assets in the eastern region [16][50]. 2.8 Energy - The sector's performance is generally under pressure due to factors such as wind, light, and water resources, as well as market - based trading and other pressures. Some projects have carried out factoring to ensure current dividends [16]. 3. Other Important News - This week, the REITs with relatively large increases were Cinda Principal Agricultural ( + 4.22%), Southern Wan Guo Data Center ( + 4.09%), and CICC Yinli Consumption ( + 3.85%); the REITs with relatively large decreases were Huaxia Hefei High - tech ( - 7.78%), China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation ( - 4.74%), and E Fund Guangzhou Development Industrial Park ( - 4.19%) [59]. - The trading activity of REITs increased this week, with the average daily trading volume of 618 million yuan, the average daily trading volume of 149 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate of 0.61%, with a month - on - month change of + 13.68%, + 18.74%, and + 0.09 percentage points respectively [63]. - There are 5 projects to be unlocked in November 2025, including CICC Liandong Science and Technology Innovation (2025/11/5, 39.09%), Yin Hua Shaoxing Raw Water and Water Conservancy (2025/11/8, 18.06%), Huatai Jiangsu Expressway Control (2025/11/15, 55%), China Merchants Expressway (2025/11/21, 55.78%), and CICC Anhui Expressway Control (2025/11/22, 37.29%). Attention should be paid to the potential trading pressure brought by the recent unlocking projects [2][65]. - As of October 31, 2025, there are about 4 - 5 potential REIT issuance projects remaining this year, including 1 project that has been issued but not yet listed, 1 project that is currently being issued, 7 projects that have received feedback from the exchange, 1 project that has been accepted by the exchange, and 1 project that has been declared to the exchange [70].

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 03 日 [Table_Title] 11 月信用，有点鸡肋 [Table_Summary] 10月，信用债表现优于利率债，信用利差全线收窄，前期调整幅度 较大的中长久期、低评级品种明显修复。信用债买盘力量增强，且 1-3 年、3-5 年成交占比上升。10 月连续三周信用债单边净买入规 模在 1000-1200 亿元左右，明显高于 9 月单周 600-700 亿元。同 时，1-3 年成交占比由 20%左右持续上升至 32%，3-5 年成交占比 由 10%左右上升至 20%。 负债端稳定的产品可能是 10 月信用债久期品种的重要买盘。一方 面，摊余成本法债基 10 月打开规模较大，约 534 亿元，封闭期 3 年以上产品占比 61%，部分摊余成本法债基打开后再配置策略或发 生变化，从利率风格变为信用风格，增加了 3-5 年中高评级信用债 投资，债基背后的投资人可能也从银行自营变为理财。另一方面， 3-5 年低评级信用债表现也不错，主要是券商资管封闭期 1-3 年的 产品在买，拉久期的同时也适度下沉。 展望 11 月，央行买债提供较强稳 ...