Market Overview - Global markets experienced increased volatility this week, with notable fluctuations in the US stock market and significant adjustments in the South Korean market[1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.1% and 1.84%, respectively[2][11] US Market Insights - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio is currently at 34.02, close to the 35 threshold, indicating potential for further adjustments in tech stocks[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio decreased to 43.78, remaining in a high valuation range[1] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 40.38, consistently above 40, suggesting overvaluation concerns in the market[1] European and Asian Markets - European markets showed a rebound, but indices like France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX are still under pressure due to high P/B ratios[1] - The Nikkei 225 index has a P/B ratio of 2.46, indicating high valuation levels amidst tightening liquidity in Japan[1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and related indices experienced declines of 3.02% and 3.07%, respectively, with significant volatility in the materials sector[2][23] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a notable drop of 6.51%, influenced by the pullback of major tech stocks like Tencent[23] Economic Data and Risks - Eurozone PPI showed a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, lower than the previous -1.4%[35] - Risks include potential surprises in US Federal Reserve monetary policy, slower-than-expected economic growth, and escalating geopolitical tensions[43]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 春节前，政府债净缴款升至 7000 亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：月初，资金面宽松 2 月首周，在大额公开市场到期、政府债集中供给的扰动下，资金面宽松格局 未改。月初周公开市场回笼压力通常较大，逆回购到期量达 1.76 万亿元，央行净回 笼 7560亿元。而对于 7000亿元 3M买断式逆回购到期，央行超额续作 1000亿元。 叠加 1 月买断式、MLF、买债操作，1-2 月央行已累计投放 1.2 万亿元中长期资金。 且自 2 月 5 日起，央行已连续两日开展 14 日逆回购投放，累计投放达 6000 亿元。 在月初财政支出的作用以及央行的呵护下，资金面维持宽松，即便周内面临逾 4600 亿元的政府债缴款压力，资金利率仍保持稳步下行的态势。R001 由周初的 1.43%逐日回落至周五的 1.36%，R007%周一至周四持稳于 1.55%附近，周五下行 至 1.53%，支持跨节的 R014 在周三触及 1.63%的周内高点后连续回落，收于 1. ...

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 17.99, with a historical average of 27.52, indicating a significant undervaluation[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a current PE of 16.89, while the Shenzhen Component Index stands at 32.20, reflecting a divergence in valuation across indices[14] - The risk premium for the A-share market is currently at 2.96%, which is above the historical average, suggesting potential for future gains[16] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE of 12.11, with a historical maximum of 22.67, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 22.13, which is significantly lower than its historical maximum of 65.18, suggesting potential for recovery[60] - The median PE for key Hong Kong sectors, such as Financials and Consumer Staples, is 10.06 and 22.07 respectively, indicating sector-specific valuation opportunities[67] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE of 28.69, which is above its historical average, indicating a potentially overvalued market[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE of 40.55, significantly higher than its historical minimum of 16.46, suggesting high investor expectations[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 28.81, reflecting a similar trend of elevated valuations compared to historical norms[94] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while technology sectors like computers and electronics are at high PE levels[24] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector has a median PE of 45.27, indicating strong growth expectations compared to other sectors[67] - Key U.S. bank stocks have a median PB of 1.34, which is lower than the historical average, suggesting potential value in the banking sector[102]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tourism and chemical sectors have low crowding and receive capital inflows, deserving priority attention; while the non - ferrous metals sector is in a state of high heat and continuous capital outflows, and its risks need to be vigilant [2] - The tourism and photovoltaic sectors have not overheated, and the crowding of non - ferrous metals is at a high level. The tourism, chemical, and semiconductor sectors are favored by funds, while the software and non - ferrous metals sectors face profit - taking [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Style: Small - cap and Ultra - large - cap Stocks Outperform - From February 2 to 6, the market was under pressure. As of February 6, 2026, the closing price of the Wind All - A Index was 6682.47, a decrease of 1.49% compared to January 30 [1] - Small - cap and ultra - large - cap stocks outperformed. The CSI 2000 and SSE 50 were at the forefront, falling 0.34% and 0.93% respectively; the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index fell significantly, dropping 5.76% and 3.28% respectively [9] - The net outflow of equity ETFs narrowed significantly. From February 2 to 5, the net outflow of equity ETFs was 22.79 billion yuan, compared with a net outflow of 321.676 billion yuan from January 26 to 29 [11] Theme Performance: Tourism and Photovoltaic Stocks Outperform - Tourism, photovoltaic, and liquor stocks outperformed, with their crowding increasing. From February 2 to 6, the tourism, photovoltaic, and liquor indexes rose by 3.37%, 3.13%, and 2.65% respectively, and their crowding quantiles increased by 27.5, 10.2, and 6.9 percentage points respectively [15] - The non - ferrous metals, AI, and semiconductor indexes fell significantly. The industrial non - ferrous metals and semiconductor indexes fell by 8.76% and 7.89% respectively, and their crowding quantiles decreased by 5.1 and 11.2 percentage points respectively; the artificial intelligence index fell by 8.57%, while its crowding quantile increased by 8.9 percentage points [15] - The crowding of the gaming sector increased significantly, and the popularity of the intelligent driving sector decreased significantly. The gaming index fell by 3.15%, and its crowding quantile increased by 20.9 percentage points; the intelligent driving index fell by 3.38%, and its crowding quantile decreased by 20.7 percentage points [15] Capital Trends: Tourism, Chemical, and Semiconductor Sectors are Favored - From an ETF capital flow perspective, the tourism, chemical, and semiconductor sectors are favored. From February 2 to 6, the tourism ETF rose by 3.13% with a net inflow of 917 million yuan; the chemical ETF fell by 2.61% with a net inflow of 908 million yuan; the semiconductor ETF and semiconductor equipment ETF fell by 7.83% and 2.99% respectively, with net capital inflows of 1.099 billion yuan and 543 million yuan respectively [24] - The software and non - ferrous metals sectors face profit - taking. The software ETF fell by 5.50% with a net outflow of 988 million yuan; the industrial non - ferrous metals ETF fell by 7.52% with a net outflow of 1.097 billion yuan [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with operating profit of $187 million, up 25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $140 million, up 24% [2] - For the full year 2025, the company reported total revenue of $11.797 billion, a 4% increase, operating profit of $1.290 billion, an 11% increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, a 2% increase [2] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, maintaining the same level as in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales and Store Expansion - The company has seen same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a net addition of 587 stores in Q4 2025 [3] - For the full year, system sales and same-store sales increased by 4% and 1% respectively, with a total of 1,706 net new stores added [3] - KFC's same-store sales grew by 3% in Q4 2025, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales increased by 1% [3] New Store Formats and Innovations - The company is expanding its product offerings and store formats, with K Coffee and KPRO showing rapid growth [4] - KPRO is expected to double its store count to over 400 by 2026, while Pizza Hut has successfully entered around 100 new towns with its WOW store model [4] - The introduction of the "Twin Stars" model, placing KFC and Pizza Hut stores adjacent to each other, aims to penetrate lower-tier markets at a lower cost [4] Cost Management and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the company's operating profit margin improved to 6.6%, and restaurant profit margin to 13.0%, benefiting from streamlined operations and favorable raw material prices [5] - The cost of food and packaging decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points [5] - Delivery sales accounted for 53% of total sales, an increase of 11 percentage points [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are adjusted to $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - Sanfu Outdoor has released a performance forecast for 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 45 million to 67.5 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 309% to 414%, exceeding market expectations [2][14] - The growth in revenue for brand X is expected to accelerate, with a projected increase of around 40% in 2026, driven by a reduction in losses from Squirrel Paradise [2][14] - The report anticipates a recovery in high-end consumption in 2026, which may benefit the consumer sector, with recommended brands including Jin Hong Group, Ge Li Si, and Luo Lai Life [3][15] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - Sanfu Outdoor's net profit forecast for 2025 is between 45 million to 67.5 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase [2][14] - The expected reduction in losses from Squirrel Paradise is a key factor in the positive outlook [2][14] Revenue Growth - Brand X is expected to accelerate store openings and increase online sales, contributing to a projected revenue growth of approximately 40% in 2026 [2][14] - The outdoor aesthetic brands HOUDINI and CRISPI are also expected to see growth, with HOUDINI planning to adjust its domestic supply chain [2][14] Material Prices - Wool prices have increased by 39.92% since the beginning of 2025, with a recent decline of 1.42% [4][38] - The report highlights strong price expectations for upstream materials, including wool and cotton, which may benefit companies like Bailong Dongfang and Xin Ao [3][15] Consumer Trends - The report notes a recovery in high-end consumption, with potential inflation in 2026, which could positively impact the consumer sector [3][15] - Online sales data shows an increase in women's clothing sales on platforms like Taobao and Tmall, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4][3] Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79%, with a weekly increase of 1.52% [16] - Key stocks in the sector include Sanfu Outdoor, which saw a significant inflow of funds [16][20]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - Sanfu Outdoor has released a performance forecast for 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 45 million to 67.5 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 309% to 414%, exceeding market expectations [2][14] - The growth in revenue for brand X is expected to accelerate, with a projected increase of around 40% in 2026, driven by a reduction in losses from Squirrel Paradise [2][14] - The report anticipates a significant reduction in losses for Squirrel Paradise, with adjustments made to revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the impact of a warm winter [2][14] - The report highlights the potential for high-end consumer recovery in 2026, which could benefit the consumer sector [3][15] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - Sanfu Outdoor's net profit forecast for 2025 is between 45 million to 67.5 million yuan, with a central estimate exceeding market expectations [2][14] - The expected revenue growth for brand X is attributed to the reduction in losses from Squirrel Paradise, with a projected revenue increase of approximately 40% in 2026 [2][14] Investment Recommendations - For manufacturing, there is a strong expectation of price increases in upstream materials, with recommendations for companies such as Baolong Oriental and New Australia [3][15] - In the brand category, high-end consumption shows signs of recovery, with recommendations for Jin Hong Group and Ge Li Si [3][15] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with the SW textile and apparel sector rising by 1.52%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79% [16] - The report notes that the sales growth for women's clothing on the Taobao Tmall platform has improved, with a notable increase in sales for certain brands [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with operating profit rising by 25% to $187 million, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 24% to $140 million. For the entire year, revenue reached $11.797 billion, up 4%, with operating profit at $1.290 billion (+11%) and net profit at $929 million (+2%) [2] - The company returned $539 million to shareholders in Q4 2025, totaling $1.5 billion for the year, with plans to maintain this level of shareholder return in 2026 [2] Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales and Store Expansion - The company reported same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with system sales and same-store sales increasing by 7% and 3% year-over-year in Q4 2025, respectively. A total of 587 new stores were added in the quarter, bringing the annual total to 1,706 new stores, with 31% being franchise stores [3] - By brand, KFC saw system sales and same-store sales growth of 8% and 3% in Q4 2025, respectively, with 357 new stores opened. For the year, KFC's system sales and same-store sales grew by 5% and 1%, respectively, with 1,349 new stores [3] - Pizza Hut experienced system sales and same-store sales growth of 6% and 1% in Q4 2025, with 146 new stores opened. For the year, system sales and same-store sales grew by 4% and 1%, respectively, with 444 new stores [3] New Store Formats and Innovations - The company is expanding its product offerings and store formats to reach a broader customer base. K Coffee and KPRO have shown rapid growth, with K Coffee in 2,200 stores and KPRO expected to double to over 400 stores in 2026. Pizza Hut has successfully entered around 100 new towns with the WOW store model [4] - The company has introduced the "Twin Stars" model, placing KFC and Pizza Hut stores adjacent to each other to penetrate lower-tier markets at a lower cost, with approximately 40 pairs of "Twin Stars" stores opened and plans for accelerated expansion in 2026 [4] Cost Management and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the company's operating profit margin and restaurant profit margin improved to 6.6% and 13.0%, respectively, benefiting from operational efficiencies and favorable raw material prices. KFC's operating profit margin was 10.5%, while Pizza Hut's was 3.7% [5] - The company reported a decrease in the proportion of food and packaging costs by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points. Rental and other expenses decreased by 1.6 percentage points, with delivery sales accounting for 53% of total sales, an increase of 11 percentage points [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts previous profit forecasts and introduces projections for 2028, estimating revenues of $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively. Net profits are projected at $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion for the same years [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 times for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [6]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is gradually stabilizing at the bottom, with a recovery in profitability driven by the transition from power batteries to energy storage batteries, which are becoming the new growth engine for the industry[1] - Global cumulative energy storage installation capacity surged from 15.1 GW in 2020 to 165.4 GW in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 91.4%, with China's market growing from 3.3 GW to 78.3 GW, a CAGR of 130.4%[21] Market Trends and Opportunities - The energy storage sector is entering a high-quality development phase, with domestic demand driven by clearer business models and external demand fueled by diverse application scenarios[2] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise, indicating a potential for upstream lithium mining stocks to rebound, while the midstream sectors like lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes remain crucial[4] Technological Advancements - The solid-state battery technology is anticipated to bring significant changes by 2025, prompting a new round of capital expenditure focused on equipment capable of integrating solid-state battery production[4] - The share of lithium-ion batteries in energy storage installations is projected to reach 55.15% by the end of 2024, with a notable increase in shipments, which are expected to total 369.8 GWh, a year-on-year growth of 64.9%[28] Regional Insights - In Europe, the market is witnessing a shift from household storage to large-scale storage, with large storage installations expected to grow by 60% in power capacity and 280% in capacity in 2024[61] - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing a resurgence, with new installations reaching 11.8 GW and 31.2 GWh in 2024, marking year-on-year increases of 35.1% and 20% respectively[62] Risk Factors - The lithium battery industry faces risks related to supply-demand mismatches and geopolitical issues affecting overseas trade[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The net profit of listed insurance companies is expected to continue rapid growth in 2025, with a total net profit of 426 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.5% [1] - The new business value (NBV) of life insurance is projected to maintain high growth in 2025, with total premium income expected to reach 4,362.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [2] - The property insurance sector is anticipated to see steady premium growth, with total premium income expected to reach 1,757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [6] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The life insurance sector is expected to see a robust performance in 2025, driven by strong demand and the transformation of the bancassurance channel, with new premium income from bancassurance channels increasing by 42.0% year-on-year [2] - The adjustment of the upper limit of the life insurance interest rate is expected to improve the NBV margin, with the rates for traditional savings insurance set at 2.0% and for participating insurance at 1.75% [2] Property Insurance - The property insurance sector is projected to achieve steady premium growth, with car insurance and non-car insurance premiums expected to reach 940.9 billion yuan and 816.1 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 3.0% and 5.0% [6] - The combined ratio (COR) is expected to improve due to a decrease in natural disaster-related economic losses, which fell by 39.8% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as China Ping An, New China Life, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and ZhongAn Online [8]