Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in domestic demand driven by policy support, particularly in the real estate sector, which is expected to stabilize [2][3] - The consumer goods sector, particularly home furnishings and cosmetics, is anticipated to benefit from increased consumption policies and a recovering real estate market [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Data - In November 2025, the total retail sales growth was +1.3%, lower than the expected +2.9%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, retail sales increased by +4.0% year-on-year [1][13] - Specific categories showed varied performance: furniture sales decreased by -3.8%, while cultural office supplies and cosmetics grew by +11.7% and +6.1%, respectively [1][11] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with new housing starts, completions, and sales all showing significant year-on-year declines in November 2025, at -26.8%, -28.0%, and -19.1%, respectively [2][32] - However, there are signs of improvement in the month-on-month data, indicating potential stabilization in the market [2] Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sector is expected to gain momentum due to ongoing policy support and a recovering real estate market, which will stimulate demand for home upgrades [3][9] Cosmetics - The cosmetics sector is experiencing a recovery, with retail sales for January to November 2025 reaching 428.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +4.8%. November sales alone were 46.8 billion yuan, up +6.1% year-on-year [4][24] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw retail sales of 341.4 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a +13.5% year-on-year increase. November sales were 29.2 billion yuan, up +8.5% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices [8][28] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the home furnishings sector include Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, which are expected to outperform due to their strong brand and market position [9] - In the cosmetics sector, domestic brands like Runben and others are highlighted for their growth potential through diversified product strategies [9]

Trade Environment - The trade environment is stabilizing as US-China relations improve, with significant agreements reached during recent talks[5] - Major economies in Europe and the US are still in a phase of fiscal expansion and monetary easing, with the IMF predicting stable economic growth in developed economies[8][9] Export Growth Analysis - Global trade growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects from "export grabbing" and increased tariff rates, with a projected growth rate of 0-1% for exports in 2026[2] - Exports to the US and ASEAN may exhibit a "seesaw" effect, with significant contributions from transshipment trade to ASEAN exports this year[2] - Africa is identified as the fastest-growing export region, driven by demand for vehicles, ships, and consumer electronics[2] Economic Forecasts - The IMF forecasts that global trade volume growth will decline from approximately 3.7% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with China's export volume growth expected to drop from 9.8% to 1.9%[20][21] - The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see slight declines in growth rates[9][8] Currency and Pricing - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a "stable yet slightly strong" trend, with export prices expected to decline marginally by around 2%[2] - The IMF predicts a decrease in global trade prices from 0.6% in 2025 to 0.1% in 2026, influenced by falling oil prices and domestic inflationary pressures[2] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include geopolitical conflicts and unexpected macroeconomic fluctuations that could impact trade dynamics[2]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total supply of long-term government bonds in 2026 is projected to be between 6.5 trillion and 7.2 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the 6.4 trillion yuan in 2025[2][4]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has increased significantly since 2019, with the proportion of bonds with a maturity of over 10 years rising from less than 5% before 2019 to around 25% in recent years[2]. Market Behavior and Trends - From November 20 to December 15, 2025, net sales of bonds with maturities over 10 years totaled 659 billion yuan by brokerages, with funds also selling 458 billion yuan during the same period due to relative ranking pressures[1]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.81% to 1.87%, while the yield on 30-year bonds increased from 2.14% to 2.28%, leading to a widening yield spread of 43 basis points[1]. Issuance Patterns - In 2025, the issuance of special government bonds accounted for 1.3 trillion yuan, while ordinary long-term bonds totaled 211 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards longer maturities[3]. - The issuance of long-term local government bonds peaked in the first quarter of 2025, with significant amounts issued in subsequent months, reflecting a balanced issuance rhythm throughout the year[5][6]. Institutional Demand and Capacity - Major banks have been net sellers of long-term government bonds, with cumulative net sales of 3.58 trillion yuan for large banks and 2.79 trillion yuan for joint-stock banks in 2025[8]. - Insurance companies have emerged as significant buyers of long-term bonds, with net purchases of 2.36 trillion yuan in long-term government bonds and 1.88 trillion yuan in local bonds in 2025[9]. Future Outlook - The demand for long-term government bonds in 2026 may be constrained by potential declines in insurance premium growth and regulatory pressures on asset management products, which could limit their capacity to absorb new issuances[10][11]. - The market's ability to improve the supply-demand structure will be crucial for the performance of long-term bonds, with potential adjustments in bank capacity and central bank interventions being key factors to watch[12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Recommended" [1][10] Core Insights - The National Medical Insurance Administration aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within the policy scope by 2026, which includes incorporating suitable childbirth pain relief projects into the insurance coverage [2][3] - The number of people covered by maternity insurance reached 255 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with nearly 95% of coordinated areas directly distributing maternity allowances to insured individuals [2] - The supportive policies for childbirth are expected to continue, creating a more favorable environment for childbirth, with various subsidies and tax deductions being implemented [3][4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On December 13, 2025, the National Medical Insurance Work Conference was held, where multiple data and measures were announced, including the goal of achieving "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth by 2026 [1] Analysis and Judgment - The National Medical Insurance Administration's goal for 2026 includes expanding coverage to flexible employment workers, migrant workers, and new employment forms, while also enhancing prenatal care expense coverage [2] Supportive Policies - The implementation of the childcare subsidy system, which provides 3,600 yuan per year for each eligible child under three years old, is part of a broader effort to improve the childbirth support system [3] Market Opportunities - The report indicates that nearly 70% of newborns are in third-tier cities and below, suggesting that childcare subsidies will significantly lower family costs and boost birth rates, particularly benefiting the lower-tier markets [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the favorable childbirth policies will likely continue, benefiting maternal and infant consumer goods, and recommends specific companies such as Kidswant, Saint Bella, and others for investment [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The recent bidding results for duty-free projects at Shanghai airports indicate a new competitive landscape, with international retailers regaining operational rights in China after 1999. The expected annual passenger throughput for the two terminals at Pudong Airport is 80 million, with the bidding results showing a decrease in commission rates [2][19] - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference emphasized the retail sector as a foundational industry for the national economy, encouraging companies to accelerate transformation and focus on high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The bidding results for duty-free operations at Shanghai airports have led to a significant shift in the competitive landscape, with China Duty Free Group (CDFG) and Dufry winning key contracts. The commission rates for the new contracts are lower than previous agreements, which may enhance profitability for operators [1][2][19] - Walmart has transitioned from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, marking a strategic shift towards being perceived as a technology-driven company rather than a traditional retail stock. This move is seen as a response to the evolving retail landscape and the increasing importance of technology and AI [21] Macro & Industry Data - In October, the total retail sales reached 4.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.0%, indicating a slight acceleration in consumer spending [39][40] - The online retail growth rate has slowed, while new retail formats continue to grow rapidly. For the first ten months, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with new retail formats like warehouse membership stores and unmanned stores showing double-digit growth [40] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are suggested: 1. Continuous upgrades in AI technology, benefiting companies like Keri International and Focus Technology [7] 2. Increased consumer willingness to pay for emotional value, with high-growth potential in new retail sectors [7] 3. Recovery of cyclical sectors under the backdrop of domestic demand stimulation, with companies like Haidilao and Yum China expected to benefit [7] 4. Expanding opportunities for domestic brands going overseas, with a focus on service providers and strong product offerings [7] 5. Revitalization of traditional formats as offline traffic returns, benefiting companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [7]

Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]

Group 1: Strategic Partnership and Brand Launch - Junting Hotel Group and Choice Hotels International launched the Comfort and Quality brands in China, marking a significant collaboration in the hotel industry [1][12] - The brands were customized for the Chinese market, showcasing a model of "global resources + local operations" [2][12] - Initial investment agreements for several hotels were signed, including locations in Chongqing and Nanjing, indicating the start of brand expansion [2][12] Group 2: Comfort Hotel Insights - Comfort Hotel, established in 1981, targets the 18-30 age group with a focus on comfort and practicality, promoting a "Nothing but Comfort" philosophy [3][14] - Investment details show a single room investment of 85,000 yuan, with an average first-year room rate of 300 yuan per night and an occupancy rate of 80% [3][15] - The projected payback period for investors is approximately 3.19 years, making it an attractive option for high turnover [15] Group 3: Quality Hotel Insights - Quality Hotel, with roots dating back to 1939, emphasizes local culture and aims to create a unique cultural experience for guests [4][17] - The investment for a single room is 180,000 yuan, with a first-year average room rate of 520 yuan per night and an occupancy rate of 75% [4][17] - The projected GOP rate is 58%, indicating a strong potential for profitability [17] Group 4: Support Mechanisms for Investors - Junting has established four core support mechanisms to enhance the efficiency of the partnership: funding support, operational management, customer sourcing, and revenue management [6][18] - The funding support includes loans with a minimum interest rate of 4%, alleviating financial pressure for investors [6][18] - The operational management strategy includes a three-month group management period to quickly ramp up operations and reduce trial-and-error costs [6][18] Group 5: Market Implications - The collaboration between Junting and Choice Hotels is expected to drive high-quality development in the mid-to-high-end hotel market in China [6][18] - This partnership is seen as a new paradigm for internationalization and scalability in the hotel industry, potentially leading to the globalization of Chinese hotel services [6][18]

[Table_Title] 关注华夏中核清洁能源打新 [Table_Title2] 公募 REITs 周速览（2025 年 12 月 8-12 日） [Table_Summary] 本周（2025 年 12 月 8-12 日）中证 REITs 全收益指数收于 1028.5 点，周度下跌 0.29%，已回到 2025 年 2 月底左右位 置。周内先跌后略有修复，但市场仍然处于弱区间震荡。截至 12 月 12 日，已上市的 77 只 REITs 总市值收于 2176 亿元。 华夏安博仓储 REIT 基金合同已于 11 月 18 日生效，截至 本周尚未确定上市日期。华夏中核清洁能源 REIT 将于 12月17 日（星期三）启动询价。 ►证监会债券司：推动不动产投资信托基金高质量发展 12 月 9 日，中国证监会债券司发表署名文章，结合境内 REITs 试点成果经验及调研情况，对我国 REITs 市场现状和功 能定位、影响高质量发展的问题及对策分析作了研究和探讨。 文章指出，我国 REITs 市场旨在服务于不动产行业的转型 发展，可以考虑将能源、铁塔、仓储物流等强运营型不动产项 目培育成"大而优"的全国性龙头 REI ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 配置在左，交易在右 [Table_Summary] 12 月 8-12 日，债市看似启动修复行情，实则做多的根基尚不稳 定，长端利率周内演绎大幅的 V型反转行情。 ► 重要会议相继落地，政策重心逐渐明朗 政策定调上，政治局会议强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"， 在逆周期调节稳增长的同时，也更加关注中长期，注重稳增长与防风 险等中长期问题的平衡。此外，中央经济工作会议通稿，也对政治局 会议提出的各项表述予以更详细的说明，市场前期的各类预期也一一 得到证实或证伪。 ►长端利率大开大合，或源于两点疑惑 政策端靴子落地后，债市的平静被打破，利率波动又一次放大。 长端利率大开大合的背后，是对两个问题的纠结，一是 2026 年货币是 否会加力？二是财政的力度究竟如何？ 货币端，债市的担忧主要来源于政策前缀表述。中央经济工作会 议指出，2026 年要"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，从市 场理解来看，这一表述相比 2025 年常见的"择机降准降息"、"适时降 准降息"，或是更中性的表述，意味着降准降息 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 与华图战略合作，行业竞争格局有望改善 [Table_Title2] 粉笔(2469.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2469 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 3.93/2.03 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 58.38 | | 最新收盘价： | 2.61 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 58.38 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,236.89 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告与华图山鼎订立战略合作协议，双方建立战略合作关系，发挥各自资源互补优势，提升双方整体 竞争力，共同探索招录类考试培训业务合作。包括：1）投资合作：双方将探索并寻求在股权投资的合作，包 括但不限于战略投资及成立合资企业。2）公司治理：双方可相互推荐董事进入对方实体机构，建立常态化沟 通机制，借鉴彼此先进管理经验，发挥各自优势。 ...