证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本周伴随美联储降息与 H200 解禁，短期宏观及政策对 AI 影响 减弱，伴随博通、甲骨文业绩披露，美股对 AI 算力估值存在 分歧。当前时点，面临全球地缘政治冲突、中美科技博弈、海 外对 AI 投资的疑问，预计市场仍将保持震荡，板块建议相对 谨慎，中性配置。中长期仍坚定看好 AI 国产算力及光模块等 相关设备商、6G 产业趋势、国产替代、自主可控以及军工等 产业趋势及行业成长，从而催化包括国产算力、光网升级、算 力租赁、卫星通信、通信军工以及 6G 等市场机会。 [Table_Title] 星网批量化组网加速，看好 AI+卫星长线成长 [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、星网批量化组网加速 北京时间 12 月 9 日和 12 月 12 日，卫星互联网低轨 15 组和 16 组卫星分别成功发射，自 2024 年 12 月 01 组卫星发射以来，截 止到目前在轨卫星数达到 127 颗。卫星发射频次显著加快。 我们认为，星网星座连续发射标志批量化组网进入高效阶段，伴 随国内星座加速发射， ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 城投债，化债政策尾声的守与变 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之五 [Table_Summary] ►2025，低波与长短分化的存量时代 2025 年新增化债政策明显减少，主要是将此前的化债政策进一步落实落 细，围绕退重点省份及退平台、"化存遏增"继续发力。城投发债政策 进一步收紧，城投债净融资创历史新低，2025 年 1-11 月仅为 4 亿元。从 内部结构看，低层级和中低等级主体净偿还体量较大。分区域看，江 苏、湖南、重庆净偿还规模在 300 亿元以上。在此背景下，城投债发行 利率震荡下行，7 月创历史新低。除贵州外，其余省份城投债平均发行利 率 2%-2.8%，大部分省份较年初下降。 从二级市场看，2025年城投债收益率震荡，走势基本跟随债市。与2024 年城投债收益率趋势下行行情明显不同，2025 年城投债收益率走势呈现 "M"型，信用利差震荡收窄。因而 2025 年也成为城投债静态收益率最低 和波动最窄的一年，横向比较来看，中短端波动收窄明显，城投债期限 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] AI 驱动基础设施需求，看好北美电力产业链 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1. 人形机器人 优必选斩获 AI 大模型公司超 0.5 亿元订单 随着海内外企业布局加速&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落 地时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替代 需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深度受 益。灵巧手、大脑和轻量化是人形机器人商业化落地的关键环节， 重点看好技术迭代和产业演进领先的国内生产厂商。 2. 新能源汽车 多家车企公布 11 月新能源汽车交付/销量 我们认为，在行业旺季趋势下，11月国内多数车企实现新能源汽车 交付/销量环比增长，全年新能源汽车表现亮眼。明年展望来看， 国内新能源汽车预计保持稳定增长，商用车电动化率提升叠加单车 带电量的增加预计带动动力电池需求较快增长。叠加国内外储能高 景气度，预计全年锂电池出货同比增长明显。在前期供给过剩导致 价格大幅下跌的背景下，动力及储能电池产业链 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI indicates intense competition in the AI large model industry, with a new "three-version segmentation" strategy aimed at enhancing workplace efficiency and targeting specific business scenarios [2][19] - Nvidia's H200 AI chip has been approved for sale in China, which could significantly enhance computing power in the market, despite the trend towards local alternatives [3][20] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following areas: Hong Kong internet leaders, gaming industry, and film and cultural tourism sectors, with specific companies highlighted for potential benefits [20] Industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Zootopia 2" with a box office of 272.384 million yuan (63.90% market share), "Get Out" with 98.387 million yuan (23.10%), and "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with 13.981 million yuan (3.30%) [21][22] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are "Teamfight Tactics," "Honor of Kings," and "Endless Winter," while the top three Android games are "Heart Town," "My Leisure Time," and "Staff Sword Legend" [23][24] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcasting index are "Big Businessman" (81.2), "Sniper Butterfly" (80.9), and "The Rise of the Hawk" (80.9) [25][26] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with an index of 80.6, while the top animation is "Refining the God of War Season 3" with an index of 255.6 [27][30]

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 跨年行情如何逢低布局？三条配置主线值得重视 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周全球股指分化，美股科技股大跌，甲骨文、博通股价大幅回撤加剧投资者对 AI 泡沫的担忧，本 周五美国科技七姐妹指数、费城半导体指数分别下跌 1.1%和 5.1%。A 股市场风格分化，成长风格整体走强。主要 宽基指数中，北证 50、创业板指和科创 50 指领涨；微盘股指、红利指数和上证 50 指数领跌。一级行业方面，通 信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨；煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产领跌。大宗商品方面，本周白银价格继续加速 上涨，国内黑色系商品进一步走弱。外汇方面，美元指数下行，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率升破 7.06。 ·市场展望：跨年行情逢低布局，国内两大重要会议指引市场主线。近期海外美联储议息会议和国内政治局会 议、中央经济工作会议相继落地，且整体基调符合市场预期，权益市场风险偏好获得支撑。时隔一个月，A 股日成 交额再度回到 2 万亿元上方，换手率边际抬升，显示市 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 大运载时代：百箭争流，共绘天疆新图景 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、力箭一号和长征十二号发射验证国内火箭大运 力能力 2025 年 12 月，我国商业航天两大运力平台接连完成 重要发射，验证了本土火箭的大运力能力。力箭一号 以"一箭九星"方式成功发射，标志着该民营固体火 箭进入规模化运营阶段。其 500 公里太阳同步轨道运 力达 1.5 吨，运载系数达 1.12%，达到同级别印度火 箭的四倍以上。凭借高性价比优势，已累计将 84 颗 卫星（总重超 11 吨）送入太空。长征十二号作为我 国最强单芯级火箭，近地轨道运力不低于 12 吨，首 次验证了大规模星座组网发射能力。该火箭采用泵后 摆发动机技术，在 3.8 米直径箭体内实现了四发并 联，支撑了大运力光杆构型。其 5.2 米大直径整流罩 为各类载荷提供了充足空间，成为未来星座建设的主 力运载平台。 谷神星二号（遥一箭）将于 2025 年 12 月 15 日在酒 泉发射中心首飞，采用"三级固体+液体上面级"的 ...

再次，2026 年摊余债基集中开放，预计规模超 6000 亿元，如果部 分产品转为信用风格，或提振对应期限信用债需求，更利好中高评 级 5 年、3 年左右品种。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 产业债，低利差下的结构博弈 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之七 [Table_Summary] ►2026 年，信用债需求或放缓 需求端，增量资金或放缓。首先，存款利率下降或继续推动居民资 产向理财产品迁移，2026 年理财规模有望延续稳步增长。但平滑净 值手段整改完毕，叠加低利差环境，理财配置信用债的占比或难上 升 。2025Q2 理财配置信用债占比为 38.8%，较 2024Q4 下降 2.3pct。 其次，基金销售费用新规对信用债影响较大的是短债、中短债基金 的赎回压力。以 25Q3 纯债基金持仓债券规模为基础，假设短债、 中短债基金赎回比例在 20%-40%，中长债基金、指数型基金赎回比 例在 10%-20%，涉及债券规模约 1.04-2.07 万亿元，其中信用债规 模约 3309-6618 亿元。 证券研究报告|固收研究 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 ►策略：震荡中枢上升，轮动框架不变 结构风险酝酿&资金参与意愿不低的情况下，板块行情可能继 续轮动。哪些板块可能成为后续的轮动项？新能源仍然是博 弈轮动的首选，红利&消费则是博弈高低切的方向。 新能源逻辑相对扎实（储能市场化&海外需求&AI 电力需求）， 但在 11 月 21 日大跌后，行情始终未迎来修复。AI 算力的大 涨缓解了市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧，这也意味着 AI 电力需求的逻 辑并未受到冲击，可以考虑布局，等待反弹行情。 红利行情从 11 月 14 日开始走弱，截至 12 月 12 日，中证红利 已下跌 6.47%。从 924 以来的历史经验来看，潜在跌幅或有 限。同时，12 月红利板块通常占优，背后是机构资金年底资 产再平衡&险资增配，意味着红利品种存在反弹空间。 消费同样是滞后修复的板块，其阶段性行情可能出现在科技 轮动缺位的情况下。关注带有科技色彩的消费品种，如在 12 月初短暂上涨的消费电子、端侧 AI，有望加入板块轮动中。 转债方面，近日，蓝天转债受控股股东股权冻结影响，价格 剧烈波动，受到市场广泛关注 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market shows mixed trends. New home sales ended a four - week increase and declined, while second - hand home sales stabilized. The year - on - year decline in sales volume is gradually narrowing, indicating a market in the process of bottom - grinding [1][2]. - Policy focus is shifting from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Situation - **New Homes**: 38 - city new home sales volume was 2.64 million square meters this week (Dec 5 - 11), a 9% week - on - week decline after four consecutive weeks of growth. The absolute scale is still within the recent range, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase after a pulse - like recovery [1]. - **Second - hand Homes**: 15 - city second - hand home sales volume stabilized at 2.14 million square meters this week, with a basically flat week - on - week change. The four - week sales volume is stable, showing stronger resilience than new homes [1]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 33% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3 percentage points. 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline also narrowing by 3 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Monthly Situation - **New Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 38 - city new home sales volume decreased by 29% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 6 percentage points compared to November, showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Second - hand Homes**: From Dec 1 - 11, 15 - city second - hand home sales volume decreased by 34% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 14 percentage points compared to October and November, facing significant short - term correction pressure [2]. 3.3 Performance in First - tier Cities - **New Homes**: After two consecutive weeks of growth, first - tier city new home sales volume decreased by 6% week - on - week. There is significant inter - city differentiation. Beijing showed strong recovery momentum, while Shanghai decreased, Shenzhen rebounded from the bottom, and Guangzhou continued to weaken [3]. - **Second - hand Homes**: The combined second - hand home sales volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increased by 4% week - on - week, mainly driven by a 20% rebound in Shenzhen. Currently, sales volumes in these three cities are stable at 73 - 79% of the annual high, significantly stronger than the new home market [3]. - **Year - on - Year Comparison**: Affected by the high base last year, new home sales volume decreased by 37% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 3 percentage points. Only Shanghai had a 13% year - on - year increase. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 31% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [4]. 3.4 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 9% week - on - week, but the year - on - year decline narrowed by 11 percentage points to - 26%, showing signs of bottom - up recovery. Second - hand home sales were relatively stable, with a basically flat week - on - week change [5]. - **Third - tier Cities**: New home sales volume decreased by 13% week - on - week after three consecutive weeks of recovery, and the year - on - year decline widened to 42%. Second - hand home sales volume decreased by 10% week - on - week but remained at 83% of the annual high [6]. 3.5 Housing Price Observation - **Overall**: From Dec 1 - 7, the decline in second - hand housing listing prices in all tiers of cities widened, with a week - on - week decline of 0.55% - 0.58%. Second - tier cities had a larger year - on - year price adjustment, with a decline of 8.61% [7]. - **First - tier Cities**: Shenzhen's listing prices rebounded for two consecutive weeks, showing signs of bottom - stabilization. The other three cities saw an expanded decline. Guangzhou had the deepest year - on - year decline at 16.62% [7]. - **Second - tier Cities**: Chengdu and Fuzhou had a slight week - on - week increase, while Xi'an had high price volatility and was still in the process of finding a bottom [7]. 3.6 Policy Observation - The central economic work conference's tone on real estate has shifted from "stopping the decline and stabilizing" to "focusing on stability", emphasizing normal risk management. In 2026, policies will likely focus on "city - specific measures", including "acquiring inventory for housing" and "building high - quality housing" [8].