证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 2026 海外，从贬值交易到加息魅影 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之九 ►海外经济：软着陆 2026 年受益于美联储降息，高利率对可贸易品的压制效应消 失，叠加补库需求释放，全球制造业有望延续温和修复过程。 美国经济受益于货币+财政双宽松，过热风险较低，处于软着 陆模式。 ►货币：美联储可能降息 100bp 市场预期美联储 2026 年降息约 50-60bp。但美联储面临双重 压力，降息幅度可能达到 100bp。一是美国联邦政府试图降低 政府债务融资成本，在 2026 可能有效削弱美联储独立性。二 是美国劳动力市场面临下行风险，同时通胀统计数字被劳工部 低估，支持美联储下调利率。 ►财政：赤字增量在欧洲 美国或在 2026 年维持 6%左右的赤字率，而德国将赤字率提 升约 0.9 个百分点至 4%。这可能推动美元相对欧元贬值。 ►风险：降息周期尾声的"加息"魅影 1995-1996、1997-1998 两次软着陆+降息情景，一旦美联储 接近降息周期尾声，加息预期往往快速 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 发布员工持股计划，彰显长期发展信心 [Table_Title2] 隆鑫通用(603766) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 603766 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 16.5/7.98 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 316.66 | | 最新收盘价： | 15.42 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 316.66 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,053.54 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布第三期员工持股计划及 2025 中期利润分配方案。 分析判断: ► 员工持股计划绑定未来三年业绩，彰显长期发展信心 公司发布第三期员工持股计划，持股计划规模总额不超过 4 亿元，授予股票数量约为 2594 万股，拟授予对象包 括董事长、非独立董事、总经理、多位副总经理、董事会秘书、财务总监、核心关键人员（平台总监、事业部 副总等）及其 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant recovery in equity market sentiment, with major stock indices generally rising and small-cap stocks experiencing a rebound [1][2] - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded six consecutive days of gains, with a cumulative increase of 3.04% since December 17, reflecting a strong market bottom and positive investor sentiment [1][2] - The report suggests that the current market rally may be an early onset of spring dynamics, with historical patterns indicating that most year-end rallies tend to touch previous highs before retreating [2] Group 2 - The report notes that the CSI A500-related ETFs have seen substantial net inflows, with a net inflow of 13.374 billion yuan on December 23 and a total of 69.179 billion yuan from December 11 to 23, accounting for 25.16% of the total scale of these ETFs [3] - It is observed that other broad-based ETFs did not experience significant net inflows during the same period, indicating that incremental capital may be waiting for more certainty before entering the market [3] Group 3 - In the bond market, despite frequent news impacts, market stability is gradually strengthening, with long-term interest rates maintaining a low volatility state [4][6] - The report discusses the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent monetary policy actions, including a net injection of 30 billion yuan in mid-to-long-term funds in December, which is slightly lower than previous months [6][7] - The report highlights that the PBOC's recent statements suggest a shift in focus from the quantity of credit to the quality and actual demand for loans, indicating a potential decrease in urgency for further interest rate cuts [7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the domestic commodity market has maintained high bullish sentiment for three consecutive days, with precious metals, particularly silver, showing strong performance [8][9] - It notes that silver has significantly outperformed gold, with a daily increase of 8.12%, driven by a combination of market dynamics and fundamental supply-demand factors [9] - The report also mentions that the lithium carbonate supply logic is facing a temporary correction due to the anticipated resumption of production at a lithium mining project, which may challenge current trading logic [10]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the EU's anti-dumping duties on imported pork, which are expected to alleviate domestic supply pressures and stabilize prices in the pork market. The anti-dumping tax rates range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will take effect from December 17, 2025 [2][12] - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig breeding capacity, with a noted decrease in the number of breeding sows, which is expected to support price recovery in the pork market [2][12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified seeds will accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key crop varieties and benefiting companies in the seed industry [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated inspections to ensure the safety of seeds for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons, focusing on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables [11] - The report identifies companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development as beneficiaries in the planting sector, while companies with significant advantages in the seed industry include Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [11] Pig Breeding - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.45%. The total number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, reflecting a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including Li Hua Co., Muyuan Foods, and WH Group in the breeding sector, and Haida Group in the feed sector [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2351.76 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.26% [25] - Wheat: The average price is 2517.30 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.04% [28] - Soybeans: The average price is 4014.74 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 14950.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.67% [44] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.62 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week. The average price of chicken feed is 3.5 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.29% [51][53]

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 关注本息拆分扰动后的高速公路 [Table_Title2] 公募 REITs 周速览（2025 年 12 月 15-19 日） [Table_Summary] 本周（2025 年 12 月 15-19 日）中证 REITs 全收益指数收 于 999 点，周度下跌 2.85%，已跌回至 2025 年初水平，叠加 华夏安博仓储首日上市即破发（收盘跌 10.16%），市场情绪 很弱。周内来看，本周五个交易日一路下跌，周五当天跌幅高 达 0.81%，盘中录得 2025 年 1 月以来的最低点位 991。 公募 REITs 的全部分红通常被直接计入投资收益。但实际 上，分红既包含源自经营净现金流的收益部分，也包含与折旧 摊销等资产消耗相对应的本金返还部分。根据会计相关处理原 则，本金返还应冲减投资成本，而非确认为当期收益，否则将 抬高账面利润、延后反映资产价值下降。因此，"本息拆分"确 实有助于更加真实反映 REITs 分红现金流的本质。 但"本息拆分"很大程度上是个会计处理问题，和资产端的 经营基本面表 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 在中央经济工作会议"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量" 的要求下，市场预期 2026 年政府债净供给规模将在 2025年高基数的背景 下，延续同比提升的趋势，尤其是超长政府债的净供给规模，可能将由今 年的 6.4 万亿元，进一步提升至 6.5-7.2 万亿元。银行、保险等配置盘，或 分别受制于利率风险指标、增量保险收入的等约束，理论上无法顺利承接 庞大的超长端供给。因此，市场在 11-15 日自发对此逻辑进行防御性定 价，超长端利率明显上行。然而实操之中，银行的利率风险考核指标并非 是一成不变的刚性变量，监管可以视当下的特殊情况，合理放松考核尺 度，提升银行消化超长政府债供给的能力。另外，央行也可通过一些特殊 方式，帮助银行完成久期指标的短期出表。 ►主线二：对结构性降息的猜想 由于今年以来居民需求、地产量价数据表现普遍不算乐观，因此，年 末市场开始对降息，尤其是LPR结构性降息存在期待。不过，当前贷款利 率降息需要考量的不仅仅是需求变化的问题，还需兼顾银行低息差压力背 后的金融系统风险。截至 2025 年三季度末 ...

Group 1 - Pinduoduo announced an organizational restructuring during its annual shareholder meeting on December 19, implementing a co-chairman system with Zhao Jiazhen and Chen Lei serving as co-chairmen and co-CEOs [1][8] - The management expressed optimism about Temu's future, stating that it has the potential to recreate Pinduoduo's success over the next three years, having already achieved significant market scale globally in just three years [1][8] - The company will focus on leveraging the Chinese supply chain as a core element of its business strategy moving forward, aiming for high-quality development and brand enhancement [1][8] Group 2 - Ant Group rebranded its AI health application AQ to "Ant Aifu" on December 15, launching a new version of the app that enhances features such as health companionship, health Q&A, and health services [2][10] - "Ant Aifu" has surpassed 15 million monthly active users, making it the largest AI health management app and ranking among the top five AI applications, with over 5 million health inquiries answered daily [2][10] - The app's monthly active user growth rate reached 83.4%, significantly outpacing industry growth, indicating strong market demand [2][10] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10% this week, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.82% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 1.96% [12][17] - Among the 12 Hang Seng industry indices, the non-essential consumer sector saw the largest decline at -2.98%, while the essential consumer sector was the only one to gain, increasing by 1.59% [13][17] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.48% [20][22]

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 科创债 ETF 规模大增 186 亿元 12 月 15-19 日，信用债 ETF 规模增长 190 亿元至 5282 亿元，主要由科创债 ETF 贡献（增长 186亿元）， 基准做市信用债 ETF 规模变化相对较小。科创债 ETF 中，5 只产品规模增幅超过 15%，分别是银华、嘉实、大 成、汇添富、景顺科创债 ETF，其中嘉实科创债 ETF 规模增长最多，增长 54 亿元至 320 亿元，该产品 12月以 来增长 111 亿元，是目前科创债 ETF 中规模最大的产品。银华科创债 ETF 增幅最高（+34%），规模增长 37亿 元至 145 亿元，超越兴业基金，成为第二批次中规模第二高的科创债 ETF，仅次于汇添富科创债 ETF。 观察 PCF 持仓券加权久期，12 月以来多数科创债 ETF 连降久期，本周 15 只科创债 ETF 继续微降久期，占 比 63%，降幅中位数 0.02 年，其中，嘉实科创债 ETF 久期下降 0.14 年至 3.4 年，降幅最大；8 只产品拉升久 期，拉升幅度最高为 ...

·市场展望："春季躁动"行情积极因素累积，逢低布局为主。复盘历史，A 股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足 以下条件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化或 外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓解，后续人 民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期待。近期股票型 ETF 再度大规模净申购，多只宽基 ETF 成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 一、复盘历史，除 2021 和 2022 年外，近十年 A 股市场往往存在"春季躁动"的日历效应。岁末年初，A 股处于经 济数据和上市公司财报的"真空期"，市场容易基于政策预期和产业趋势做主题投资。2016 年以来的十年间，A 股出现过 8 次"春季躁动"行情。时间上，行情启动时间通常在 12 月至 1 月份，持续时间 20-60 个交易日不等。 二、2021 和 2022 年的经验表明，A 股春季躁动并非必然，估值高位叠加外部事件冲击会导致春季行情缺失。例 如：2021 年初，A 股市场估值处于历史偏高水平，疫情后的通胀阴霾促使海外 ...

► 门店端经营优势：兼具便利性/高性价比/多可选 项优势，匹配在家吃饭消费群体需求 证券研究报告|港股公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 [Table_ 标准店和乡镇店 Title] 战略打法逐步成型，小炒业态蓄势待发 [Table_Title2] 锅圈(2517.HK) 锅圈产品以"在家吃饭"为核心定位，服务于有便利就餐需求 且对餐饮质量有较高要求的群体，针对该群体需求自便利性、 高性价比、多可选项三方向延伸，便利性方面通过火锅套组、 组合套餐、24 小时经营、速烹菜形式保证消费者快速/随时实 现在家就餐；高性价比方面产品火锅食材单品价格相较各大生 鲜超市处相对地位、且店内套餐较单品购买优惠力度达 20%以 上；多可选项方面新推 SKU 数量逐年增强，24 年单年度新增 SKU 数量 412 个达历史新高。 ► 供应链强化：供应链自产+冷链收购，增加业务覆 盖半径、实现成本优化 公司持续强化供应链布局，1）加工厂布局：截至 25 年 4 月通 过收购/投资形式布局加工厂 7 家，通过加工食材自产形式把 控成本，24 年自产产品占比已达 20%；25 年 7 月宣布拟 ...