人民币升值将助推资产重估 大类资产首席分析师：孙付 SAC NO：S1120520050004 2025年9月2日 证券研究报告 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 核心观点 经济基本面与政策展望： ● 海外：美国经济动能在放缓，尽管关税对通胀的冲击仍在发酵，但美联储独立性在减弱，更加重视就业，非农数据 的转弱将促使9月重启降息。 ● 国内：经济呈现弱稳定，宏观政策温和发力，货币流动性保持宽裕状态。关税谈判持续推进，关税不确定对经济的 扰动减弱。 "反内卷"更多依靠技术创新促进落后产能淘汰、优化供给结构，对物价的影响是结构性与温和的。 物价展望：宏观政策对服务消费支持力度加大，我们预计核心CPI在温和回升后保持相对稳定；广谱CPI逐步有所回升， 中枢上移至0.5%；PPI逐渐向-1%靠拢。GDP平减指数有望在2026年年中转正。 人民币升值预期增强： 美元：降息重启叠加美国削减贸易逆差诉求，美元呈现弱势。 人民币汇率：双顺差带来外汇池子资金增加，汇率走强；外汇掉期显示有升值预期。 资产展望：人民币升值将助推中国资产重估 股票：在经济边际企稳，流动性较为宽松，人民币升值背景下，股票市场有望维持牛市氛围。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The company, Dingjia Precision, is recognized as a national-level "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" enterprise, primarily engaged in the production of functional consumer electronics products. The company has shown a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the years, with a projected revenue growth from 3.28 billion CNY in 2022 to 4.07 billion CNY in 2024, and a net profit increase from 0.53 billion CNY to 0.59 billion CNY during the same period [1][19]. - The global consumer electronics market is expected to exceed 1 trillion USD by 2028, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to its strong technological capabilities and established customer relationships [2][7]. - The company holds 208 patents, including 20 invention patents, and has developed core technologies that support its production processes, enhancing product stability and reducing costs [2][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The consumer electronics functional and protective products industry is closely tied to the overall consumer electronics market, which has seen significant growth, increasing from 919.5 billion USD in 2018 to 1,027.6 billion USD in 2023, with expectations to reach 1,176.7 billion USD by 2028 [2][7]. Company Profile - Dingjia Precision specializes in the design, research, production, and sales of functional and protective consumer electronics products. The company has established itself as a key player in the industry, serving major clients such as Compal Electronics and Delta Electronics, with products used in well-known brands like Dell and HP [14][24]. - The company’s revenue from functional products accounted for 70.91% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its core business focus [19]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 3.28 billion CNY in 2022, 3.66 billion CNY in 2023, and a projected 4.07 billion CNY in 2024, with corresponding net profits of 0.53 billion CNY, 0.51 billion CNY, and 0.59 billion CNY [1][19]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1 billion CNY and 1.15 billion CNY for Q1 and Q2 respectively, marking growth rates of 20.36% and 17.52% year-on-year [1][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong focus on technological innovation, with a commitment to meeting customized client needs through continuous product development and improvement [23][24]. - The industry is characterized by high market concentration, with the company having established long-term relationships with high-quality clients, ensuring a stable demand for its products [24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 920 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 295 million yuan, also up by 26% [2]. - The user base for the AI product "AI 麦可" is rapidly growing, with over 13,000 paid members as of June 30, 2025, excluding trial users [3]. - The company is set to launch a new Sourcing AI tool for buyers in the second half of 2025, enhancing its offerings on the platform [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 480 million yuan, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, both reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company’s B2B business gross margin stood at 80.75%, consistent with the previous year, while the gross margin for Q2 saw a slight decline of 1.6 percentage points [3]. Business Segments - Revenue growth for various segments in the first half of 2025 includes: - China Manufacturing Network: +17% - New Insurance Station: -12% - Cross-border Business: +6% - Agency Business: +12% - AI Business: +92% [3]. - The China Manufacturing Network accounted for 83% of total revenue, with a membership increase of 2,966 compared to the previous year [3]. Traffic and User Engagement - The overall traffic for the China Manufacturing Network increased by 35% year-on-year, with significant growth in emerging markets such as the Middle East (+45%) and South America (+43%) [4]. - The company has implemented various traffic optimization strategies, enhancing user engagement and transaction potential across different industries [4]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025 to 1,954 million yuan, with net profits expected to be 487 million yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [6]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.54 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 34 times [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 41.0% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by robust AI demand and a recovery in traditional testing services [3] - The net profit for H1 2025 reached 200 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 74% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 36.6% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for advanced SOC testing, with the new product 8600 currently undergoing client validation [5] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company released its half-year report for 2025 [2] Revenue Growth - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 530 million yuan, with Q2 contributing 340 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 39.0% [3] - Revenue from testing systems was 460 million yuan, up 36.7% year-on-year, while accessory revenue surged by 72.9% to 74 million yuan [3] - Overseas revenue reached 58 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 142% year-on-year, indicating a strong global demand in the testing industry [3] Profitability - The company's net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items for H1 2025 were 200 million yuan and 180 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 74% and 37.7% [4] - The net profit margin improved to 36.6%, up 7.0 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 74.7%, slightly down from the previous year, attributed to impacts from new product validations [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in revenue, projecting 1.192 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.7% [6] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 468 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.2% [6] - The company plans to utilize 1 billion yuan raised from convertible bonds to enhance R&D capabilities and expand high-end SOC testing machine production [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has experienced significant profit growth driven by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jianghai Securities, which reported a total revenue of 726 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.17%, and a net profit of 288 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1312% [2][21] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.12% and 233.08% respectively [1][14] - The dual business model of thermal power and securities is expected to continue driving growth, with projections for revenue and net profit growth in the coming years [8][33] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.475 billion yuan and a net profit of 380 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 1.12% and 233.08% [1][14] - Jianghai Securities contributed significantly to the overall profit, with 65% of net profit coming from securities and 28% from the thermal power segment [3][20] 2. Business Segments - The thermal power segment generated revenue of 982 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.06%, while contributing a net profit of 123 million yuan [17][29] - Jianghai Securities reported total revenue of 726 million yuan, with a net profit of 288 million yuan, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous year [21][34] 3. Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on diversifying its investments through its subsidiary, Hato Jiaxin, which is involved in industry funds, carbon asset management, and optimizing financial equity [3][31] - The company aims to enhance its investment value creation capabilities to support sustainable development [31][34] 4. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.814 billion yuan, 2.882 billion yuan, and 2.916 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 466 million yuan, 494 million yuan, and 497 million yuan [8][33] - The report anticipates continued growth in the securities business, while the thermal power segment is expected to stabilize around historical averages [33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has launched an AI-based large class training course to address intense price competition in the industry, which is expected to gradually replace traditional large classes and create new growth opportunities [4][6] - The company’s revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 showed a decline, with revenue at 1.492 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.50% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit at 230 million yuan, down 18.39% year-on-year [2] - The average monthly active users on the platform increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 9.3 million, indicating a slight growth in user engagement despite revenue challenges [3] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In H1 2025, the company's revenue, net profit, adjusted net profit, and operating cash flow were 1.492 billion, 230 million, 270 million, and 210 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 8.50%, 18.39%, 22.24%, and 9.12% [2] Analysis and Judgment - Revenue from training services and book sales in H1 2025 was 1.29 billion and 200 million yuan, showing declines of 6.08% and 21.71% respectively, primarily due to increased competition in the examination training sector [3] - The company’s AI-based large class course, launched in April 2025, has sold approximately 50,000 seats, generating around 20 million yuan in revenue [4] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 7.35% year-on-year to 228 million yuan, providing a buffer for future revenue growth [4] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from an expanding market for civil service examination training, with 3.416 million candidates passing the qualification review, a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards to 2.512 billion, 2.659 billion, and 2.972 billion yuan, with corresponding adjusted net profit estimates revised to 269 million, 371 million, and 495 million yuan [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 0.12, 0.17, and 0.22 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24, 17, and 13 times respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see profit improvement in the second half of the year due to tuition fee increases and the completion of campus construction [7] - The company has optimized tuition fees for the 2025/26 academic year, with undergraduate tuition rising from RMB 32,000-39,800 to RMB 42,000-48,000 per year, and new student fees for diploma courses increasing from RMB 20,000 to RMB 23,000 per year [3][7] - The company has completed its fourth phase of campus construction, which is expected to enhance its educational offerings and potentially create new business models [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were RMB 534 million and RMB 162 million, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and 9.9% [2] - The average tuition fee for H1 2025 was RMB 18,884 per semester, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 59.4%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased staff costs and depreciation [4] Enrollment and Tuition Trends - The total number of enrolled students for the 2024/25 academic year was 23,928, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, attributed to the graduation of students from the expanded programs in the previous academic year [3] - The company has seen a decline in the number of adult continuing education students, with a 36.38% year-on-year drop [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve positive profit growth in the second half of the year, despite challenges in the first half due to increased costs and depreciation [7] - The company is actively developing AI courses and has received approval for 9 "AI+ courses," which is 32.1% of the total approved courses [5] - The company is focusing on creating a smart campus ecosystem by integrating technologies such as AI, 5G, and VR into its educational processes [5] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 999.68 million, RMB 1,067.80 million, and RMB 1,144.45 million, respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for the same period has also been revised down to RMB 208.48 million, RMB 234.39 million, and RMB 262.18 million, respectively [8]

Report Information - Report Title: "Research on Major Asset Classes Isn't Complicated: The Second Lesson from a Decade of Research" [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liu Yu [5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Different major asset classes have unique risk - return characteristics, and these characteristics change over time. Therefore, investors should regularly re - evaluate these features, select high - quality assets, and aim for beta returns by avoiding frequent timing and trading [2][13] - The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified within a framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior. Understanding these factors helps in analyzing asset price trends and making investment decisions [3] Summary by Directory 1. What is a Good Asset? - Asset characteristics can be evaluated using the risk - return ratio, which combines return and volatility. Assets with high returns and low volatility are considered good assets [11][12] - Historically, gold has shown an upward trend, and the domestic bond market has been in a long - term bull market since 2018, both providing good holding experiences. The domestic stock market is range - bound, making timing crucial for investors [12] - In 2025 from January to July, due to factors such as US tariff policies and the entry of market - stabilizing funds, the risk - return ratios of various assets changed significantly. Gold's ratio increased, domestic equities improved, and pure - bond indices deteriorated [2][12] 2. The Unified Framework for Major Asset Classes - Asset price movements have three phases: rising, falling, and sideways. The key to research and investment is to find the inflection points between these phases. The pricing of stocks, bonds, and gold can be unified under the framework of liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior [3][16] - Liquidity refers to the ease of obtaining funds in the market. Loose monetary policies usually lead to more funds flowing into the capital market, driving up asset prices [3][17] - Risk preference reflects investors' expectations and confidence in the future. It is influenced by economic fundamentals and policy expectations, and has a significant impact on asset pricing [18][19] - Institutional behavior affects the market in two ways: strengthening short - term trends and having a structural impact on specific sectors [4][20] 3. Equities: Risk Preference is Key - Stock market pricing can be simply measured by the price - earnings ratio, and risk preference is a crucial factor. High risk preference leads to more optimistic pricing, while low risk preference can cause prices to fall [21] - The balance of margin trading can be used to measure market risk preference. An increase in the balance indicates rising risk preference, and vice versa [21] - The driving factors for risk preference in the stock market include corporate earnings and policy expectations. Different driving factors require different investment strategies [26][31] 4. Bonds: Monetary Policy is the Lifeline - The main ways to obtain returns in the bond market are through coupon payments, leverage, and duration. Monetary policy and the money market are vital for the bond market [33][35] - The net lending scale of the banking system can be used to judge the stability of the money market. Policy changes and institutional behavior can also have a significant impact on the bond market [35][40] 5. Gold: De - dollarization is the Main Line - Gold is globally priced. Its price is affected by global liquidity, risk preference, and institutional behavior, especially the gold - buying behavior of central banks [46] - Historically, gold was negatively correlated with the real US dollar interest rate. However, since 2020, the relationship has become positive, indicating a change in the pricing logic due to the de - dollarization process [46][50] - As the de - dollarization trend continues, central banks' increased gold purchases support the price of gold, and gold is expected to benefit from this trend [50][52]

[Table_Summary] 事件概述 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 中报业绩点评：25H1 业绩保持快速增长，非 CMP 业务迎来高增 [Table_Title2] 华海清科(688120) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 688120 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 220.0/104.4 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 459.39 | | 最新收盘价： | 129.99 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 459.39 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 353.41 | 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 ► 先进制程 CMP 放量+新业务高增，25H1 公司收入端保持快速增长 2025H1 公司营收 19.50 亿元，同比+30.28%，其中 Q2 为 10.37 亿元，同比+27.05%，持续快速增长，基本符合 市场预期。分业务来看，1）我们判断 CMP 设备仍为主要收入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in its combined operating ratio (COR) and continued high growth in new business value (NBV) [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 324.01 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.53 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute an interim cash dividend of 0.075 yuan per share, an increase of 19.0% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Premium Growth and Underwriting Improvement - In H1 2025, the company achieved original premium income of 323.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with insurance service income of 249.04 billion yuan, up 5.6% [3] - The underwriting profit reached 11.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%, with a COR of 95.3%, improving by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The combined loss ratio increased by 1.6 percentage points to 72.3%, while the combined expense ratio improved by 3.1 percentage points to 23.0% [3] Life and Health Insurance NBV Growth - The NBV for life insurance increased by 71.1% year-on-year to 4.978 billion yuan, with the bank insurance channel contributing significantly with a 108% increase [4] - The NBV for health insurance grew by 51% year-on-year to 3.837 billion yuan, driven by improved payment structures and reduced channel commissions [4] - The life insurance service income was 14.018 billion yuan, up 32.5% year-on-year, while original premium income increased by 14.5% [4] Investment Income and Asset Allocation - As of mid-2025, the company's investment assets reached 1,760.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.24% [5] - Total investment income for H1 2025 was 41.478 billion yuan, up 42.7% year-on-year, with net investment income of 30.324 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2% [5] - The annualized total investment return rate was 5.1%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 659.5 billion yuan, 712.6 billion yuan, and 736.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 45.5 billion yuan, 49.1 billion yuan, and 52.9 billion yuan respectively [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.03 yuan, 1.11 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [6]