证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Title] 稳步备战节后"红包"行情，配置三条主线 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周全球主要股指分化，印度 SENSEX30、美股道指、法国 CAC40 领涨；港股指数、韩国综指、深证 成指跌幅居前。A 股大盘缩量调整，市场日成交额回落至 2.2 万亿元附近，主要宽基指数普遍下跌，前期涨幅较 大、交易结构较为拥挤的科技与有色金属板块经历明显回调，部分资金流向低位价值股与红利板块。大宗商品方 面，贵金属价格剧烈波动，国际油价下跌，黑色系价格低位运行。外汇方面，本周美元指数反弹，人民币兑美元 汇率继续升值。 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 08 日 ·市场展望：稳步备战节后"红包"行情，配置三条主线。近期受海外 AI 相关预期扰动，中美科技板块短期承 压，不过随着周五美股科技股止跌反弹，国内相关板块亦有望迎来修复。历史经验显示，受长假期间海外不确定 性及春节取现需求上升等因素影响，春节前市场成交往往收缩，融资余额趋于回落；而节后资金通常回流，市场 风险偏好亦明显修复。当前建议稳步备战春节"红包 ...

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 8 日 [Table_Title] PB-ROE 模型周度仓位观点 [Table_Summary] ► PB-ROE 模型方法 截至 2026/2/6，市场整体 PB-ROE 估值偏离度为 0.159， 超过历史均值+1 倍标准差，当前处于估值扩张并且市场情绪 高涨阶段，模型建议本周(2026/2/9-2026/2/13)高仓位(80%- 100%)。 根据时间序列 PB-ROE 模型计算残差，模型残差是市场 实际估值超出基本面合理估值的部分，即实际估值相对于合 理估值的偏离，将其定义为 PB-ROE 估值偏离度。 当偏离度>0 时，实际 PB 高于基本面合理值，市场情绪 高涨，风险偏好提升。 当偏离度<0 时，实际 PB 低于基本面合理值，市场情绪 低迷，风险偏好下降。 ► PB-ROE 估值偏离度与可投资区域 PB-ROE 估值偏离度与下周指数涨幅总体正相关，并且 有统计显著性。当偏离度明显超越历史均值时，市场情绪极 度高涨，可配置高仓位；而当偏离度明显低于历史均值时， 市场存在较强安全边际，下跌空间有限，可配置中高仓位。 我 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Claude Work has launched 13 plugins covering core business areas such as law, sales, and finance, significantly enhancing the efficiency of non-software developers by automating workflows like research, drafting, and review [2][22] - The competition in AI has shifted from providing foundational model capabilities to controlling specific industry workflows, indicating that AI applications can now offer "out-of-the-box" vertical solutions across multiple sectors [2][22] - During the Spring Festival, major AI applications invested over 1.5 billion yuan in marketing, with notable activities like Alibaba's "milk tea free order" campaign achieving over 10 million orders in just 9 hours, highlighting the potential for AI applications to connect online intelligence with offline consumption [3][23] - Current investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, 2) gaming industry benefiting from policy incentives and technological empowerment, and 3) film and cultural tourism sectors recovering from consumption policies [23][6] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week are: "Zootopia 2" with 30.02 million yuan (19.90% market share), "Water Pipe" with 19.28 million yuan (12.80%), and "Killing" with 17.48 million yuan (11.60%) [24][25] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are: "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Gold Shovel Battle," while the top three Android games are: "Heartfelt Town," "Tomorrow's Ark: End of the World," and "Goose Duck Kill" [26][27] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are: "Tang Palace Mystery" (77.3), "Young and Promising" (70.9), and "Peaceful Year" (69.4) [28][29] Variety and Animation - The top three variety shows are: "Weibo Night 2025" (75.5), "Voice of the Flow Season" (63.4), and "Wonderful Night Season 2" (63.1) [30][31] - The top three animated shows are: "Happy Hammer" (230.9), "Immortal Reverse" (213.4), and "Time Beyond" (179.9) [32]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Claude Work has launched 13 plugins covering core business areas such as law, sales, and finance, significantly enhancing the efficiency of non-software developers by automating workflows like research, drafting, and review [2][22] - The competition in AI has shifted from providing foundational model capabilities to controlling specific industry workflows, indicating that AI applications can now offer "out-of-the-box" vertical solutions across multiple sectors [2][22] - During the Spring Festival, major AI applications invested over 1.5 billion yuan in marketing, with notable activities like Alibaba's "milk tea free order" campaign achieving over 10 million orders in just 9 hours, highlighting the potential for AI applications to connect online intelligence with offline consumption [3][23] - Current investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders, 2) gaming industry benefiting from policy incentives and technological empowerment, and 3) film and cultural tourism sectors recovering due to consumer policies [3][6][23] Industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week are: "Zootopia 2" with 30.02 million yuan (19.90% market share), "Water Pipe" with 19.28 million yuan (12.80%), and "Killing" with 17.48 million yuan (11.60%) [24][25] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games are: "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Gold Shovel Battle," while the top three Android games are: "Heartfelt Town," "Arknights: End of the World," and "Duck Duck Goose" [26][27] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are: "Tang Palace Mystery" (77.3), "Young and Promising" (70.9), and "The Peaceful Year" (69.4) [28][29] Variety and Animation - The top three variety shows are: "Weibo Night 2025" (75.5), "Voice of the Flow Season" (63.4), and "Wonderful Night Season 2" (63.1) [30][31] - The top three animated shows are: "Happy Hammer" (230.9), "Immortal Reverse" (213.4), and "Time Beyond" (179.9) [32]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced increased volatility this week, with notable fluctuations in the US stock market and significant adjustments in the South Korean market[1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.1% and 1.84%, respectively[2][11] US Market Insights - The TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio is currently at 34.02, close to the 35 threshold, indicating potential for further adjustments in tech stocks[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio decreased to 43.78, remaining in a high valuation range[1] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 40.38, consistently above 40, suggesting overvaluation concerns in the market[1] European and Asian Markets - European markets showed a rebound, but indices like France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX are still under pressure due to high P/B ratios[1] - The Nikkei 225 index has a P/B ratio of 2.46, indicating high valuation levels amidst tightening liquidity in Japan[1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and related indices experienced declines of 3.02% and 3.07%, respectively, with significant volatility in the materials sector[2][23] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a notable drop of 6.51%, influenced by the pullback of major tech stocks like Tencent[23] Economic Data and Risks - Eurozone PPI showed a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, lower than the previous -1.4%[35] - Risks include potential surprises in US Federal Reserve monetary policy, slower-than-expected economic growth, and escalating geopolitical tensions[43]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 7 日 [Table_Title] 春节前，政府债净缴款升至 7000 亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：月初，资金面宽松 2 月首周，在大额公开市场到期、政府债集中供给的扰动下，资金面宽松格局 未改。月初周公开市场回笼压力通常较大，逆回购到期量达 1.76 万亿元，央行净回 笼 7560亿元。而对于 7000亿元 3M买断式逆回购到期，央行超额续作 1000亿元。 叠加 1 月买断式、MLF、买债操作，1-2 月央行已累计投放 1.2 万亿元中长期资金。 且自 2 月 5 日起，央行已连续两日开展 14 日逆回购投放，累计投放达 6000 亿元。 在月初财政支出的作用以及央行的呵护下，资金面维持宽松，即便周内面临逾 4600 亿元的政府债缴款压力，资金利率仍保持稳步下行的态势。R001 由周初的 1.43%逐日回落至周五的 1.36%，R007%周一至周四持稳于 1.55%附近，周五下行 至 1.53%，支持跨节的 R014 在周三触及 1.63%的周内高点后连续回落，收于 1. ...

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 17.99, with a historical average of 27.52, indicating a significant undervaluation[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a current PE of 16.89, while the Shenzhen Component Index stands at 32.20, reflecting a divergence in valuation across indices[14] - The risk premium for the A-share market is currently at 2.96%, which is above the historical average, suggesting potential for future gains[16] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE of 12.11, with a historical maximum of 22.67, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 22.13, which is significantly lower than its historical maximum of 65.18, suggesting potential for recovery[60] - The median PE for key Hong Kong sectors, such as Financials and Consumer Staples, is 10.06 and 22.07 respectively, indicating sector-specific valuation opportunities[67] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE of 28.69, which is above its historical average, indicating a potentially overvalued market[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE of 40.55, significantly higher than its historical minimum of 16.46, suggesting high investor expectations[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 28.81, reflecting a similar trend of elevated valuations compared to historical norms[94] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while technology sectors like computers and electronics are at high PE levels[24] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector has a median PE of 45.27, indicating strong growth expectations compared to other sectors[67] - Key U.S. bank stocks have a median PB of 1.34, which is lower than the historical average, suggesting potential value in the banking sector[102]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tourism and chemical sectors have low crowding and receive capital inflows, deserving priority attention; while the non - ferrous metals sector is in a state of high heat and continuous capital outflows, and its risks need to be vigilant [2] - The tourism and photovoltaic sectors have not overheated, and the crowding of non - ferrous metals is at a high level. The tourism, chemical, and semiconductor sectors are favored by funds, while the software and non - ferrous metals sectors face profit - taking [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Style: Small - cap and Ultra - large - cap Stocks Outperform - From February 2 to 6, the market was under pressure. As of February 6, 2026, the closing price of the Wind All - A Index was 6682.47, a decrease of 1.49% compared to January 30 [1] - Small - cap and ultra - large - cap stocks outperformed. The CSI 2000 and SSE 50 were at the forefront, falling 0.34% and 0.93% respectively; the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index fell significantly, dropping 5.76% and 3.28% respectively [9] - The net outflow of equity ETFs narrowed significantly. From February 2 to 5, the net outflow of equity ETFs was 22.79 billion yuan, compared with a net outflow of 321.676 billion yuan from January 26 to 29 [11] Theme Performance: Tourism and Photovoltaic Stocks Outperform - Tourism, photovoltaic, and liquor stocks outperformed, with their crowding increasing. From February 2 to 6, the tourism, photovoltaic, and liquor indexes rose by 3.37%, 3.13%, and 2.65% respectively, and their crowding quantiles increased by 27.5, 10.2, and 6.9 percentage points respectively [15] - The non - ferrous metals, AI, and semiconductor indexes fell significantly. The industrial non - ferrous metals and semiconductor indexes fell by 8.76% and 7.89% respectively, and their crowding quantiles decreased by 5.1 and 11.2 percentage points respectively; the artificial intelligence index fell by 8.57%, while its crowding quantile increased by 8.9 percentage points [15] - The crowding of the gaming sector increased significantly, and the popularity of the intelligent driving sector decreased significantly. The gaming index fell by 3.15%, and its crowding quantile increased by 20.9 percentage points; the intelligent driving index fell by 3.38%, and its crowding quantile decreased by 20.7 percentage points [15] Capital Trends: Tourism, Chemical, and Semiconductor Sectors are Favored - From an ETF capital flow perspective, the tourism, chemical, and semiconductor sectors are favored. From February 2 to 6, the tourism ETF rose by 3.13% with a net inflow of 917 million yuan; the chemical ETF fell by 2.61% with a net inflow of 908 million yuan; the semiconductor ETF and semiconductor equipment ETF fell by 7.83% and 2.99% respectively, with net capital inflows of 1.099 billion yuan and 543 million yuan respectively [24] - The software and non - ferrous metals sectors face profit - taking. The software ETF fell by 5.50% with a net outflow of 988 million yuan; the industrial non - ferrous metals ETF fell by 7.52% with a net outflow of 1.097 billion yuan [24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.823 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year, with operating profit of $187 million, up 25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $140 million, up 24% [2] - For the full year 2025, the company reported total revenue of $11.797 billion, a 4% increase, operating profit of $1.290 billion, an 11% increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of $929 million, a 2% increase [2] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, maintaining the same level as in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales and Store Expansion - The company has seen same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a net addition of 587 stores in Q4 2025 [3] - For the full year, system sales and same-store sales increased by 4% and 1% respectively, with a total of 1,706 net new stores added [3] - KFC's same-store sales grew by 3% in Q4 2025, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales increased by 1% [3] New Store Formats and Innovations - The company is expanding its product offerings and store formats, with K Coffee and KPRO showing rapid growth [4] - KPRO is expected to double its store count to over 400 by 2026, while Pizza Hut has successfully entered around 100 new towns with its WOW store model [4] - The introduction of the "Twin Stars" model, placing KFC and Pizza Hut stores adjacent to each other, aims to penetrate lower-tier markets at a lower cost [4] Cost Management and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the company's operating profit margin improved to 6.6%, and restaurant profit margin to 13.0%, benefiting from streamlined operations and favorable raw material prices [5] - The cost of food and packaging decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, while labor costs increased by 1.2 percentage points [5] - Delivery sales accounted for 53% of total sales, an increase of 11 percentage points [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are adjusted to $12.522 billion, $13.264 billion, and $13.983 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $1.015 billion, $1.127 billion, and $1.228 billion [6] - The latest stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - Sanfu Outdoor has released a performance forecast for 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be between 45 million to 67.5 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 309% to 414%, exceeding market expectations [2][14] - The growth in revenue for brand X is expected to accelerate, with a projected increase of around 40% in 2026, driven by a reduction in losses from Squirrel Paradise [2][14] - The report anticipates a recovery in high-end consumption in 2026, which may benefit the consumer sector, with recommended brands including Jin Hong Group, Ge Li Si, and Luo Lai Life [3][15] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - Sanfu Outdoor's net profit forecast for 2025 is between 45 million to 67.5 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase [2][14] - The expected reduction in losses from Squirrel Paradise is a key factor in the positive outlook [2][14] Revenue Growth - Brand X is expected to accelerate store openings and increase online sales, contributing to a projected revenue growth of approximately 40% in 2026 [2][14] - The outdoor aesthetic brands HOUDINI and CRISPI are also expected to see growth, with HOUDINI planning to adjust its domestic supply chain [2][14] Material Prices - Wool prices have increased by 39.92% since the beginning of 2025, with a recent decline of 1.42% [4][38] - The report highlights strong price expectations for upstream materials, including wool and cotton, which may benefit companies like Bailong Dongfang and Xin Ao [3][15] Consumer Trends - The report notes a recovery in high-end consumption, with potential inflation in 2026, which could positively impact the consumer sector [3][15] - Online sales data shows an increase in women's clothing sales on platforms like Taobao and Tmall, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4][3] Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79%, with a weekly increase of 1.52% [16] - Key stocks in the sector include Sanfu Outdoor, which saw a significant inflow of funds [16][20]