目录 信息科技产业2026年年度策略 拥抱"AI+"与商业航天两大投资主线 信息技术产业研究团队 证券分析师：王秀钢 SAC NO:S1120519020001 徐 康 SAC NO:S1120525070004 2025年12月31日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 1 市场复盘：板块估值迎来重估，关注盈利端兑现 02 AI+ 2 ：AI革命持续演绎，应用&场景锚定价值落脚点 03 3 商业航天：运力迎来拐点时刻，产业进入加速发展期 04 4 选股逻辑及受益标的 05 5 风险提示 1 1 市场复盘：板块估值迎来重估，关注盈利端兑现 2 1.1 市场回顾：中小科创领跑全年行情，10月冲高后震荡分化 图：2025年初至今几大指数涨跌幅情况 3 资料来源：Wind、华西证券研究所 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 沪深300 上证指数 科创50 科创100 中证1000 科创板营收同比增速连续两季度改善：受宏观经济下行及行业周期波动影响，科创板2024年整体营收为14391.40亿元，同比微增 0.64%，高成长属性承压显著。2025 年 ...

生猪产能去化开启，迎 来左侧布局时机 农林牧渔团队 证券分析师：周莎 SAC NO:S1120519110005 目录 01 生猪养殖：左侧布局，静待反转 1 02 种植：粮价渐回升，景气有望修复 03 风险提示 2025年12月31日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 生猪养殖：左侧布局，静待反转 2 1.1 旺季不旺，2025Q4猪价为近10年最低，产能调减为主旋律 图2 能繁母猪存栏量变化 图1 2022-2025年月度猪价走势对比（元/公斤） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2022 2023 2024 2025 3,900 3,950 4,000 4,050 4,100 中国能繁母猪存栏量 万头 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 3 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 1.3 政策引导，被动去产能，未来看高质量发展 据猪易通数据，2025Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4（截止12.21）全国生猪价格分别为15.06/14.53/13.88/11.72元/公斤，猪价逐季下降， 同比分别+4.27%/-1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the premium income for life insurance and health insurance has shown a marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in original premium income for the first 11 months of 2025, totaling 414.72 billion yuan [1] - In November, the decline in premium income for personal insurance narrowed compared to October, with a monthly income of 154.8 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.6% [1] - The report highlights a positive trend in property insurance, with total premium income for the first 11 months of 2025 reaching 161.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a monthly income of 124.8 billion yuan in November, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 4.06463 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 13.2% compared to the end of 2024, driven by premium income growth and appreciation of investment assets [3] - The report suggests that the demand for savings insurance remains strong due to higher preset interest rates compared to bank deposits, which may attract some deposits into the insurance sector [4] - The supply side is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the insurance marketing system and the removal of certain restrictions, leading to a concentration of market share among leading insurance companies [4] Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - Original premium income for personal insurance companies from January to November 2025 was 414.72 billion yuan, with life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance contributing 338.74 billion, 72.52 billion, and 3.46 billion yuan respectively [1] - The monthly premium income for November was 154.8 billion yuan, with life insurance at 112.6 billion yuan, health insurance at 40.2 billion yuan, and accident insurance at 2 billion yuan [1] Property Insurance - Original premium income for property insurance companies from January to November 2025 was 161.57 billion yuan, with motor insurance and non-motor insurance at 84.32 billion and 77.25 billion yuan respectively [2] - The monthly premium income for November was 124.8 billion yuan, with motor insurance at 82 billion yuan and non-motor insurance at 42.8 billion yuan [2] Asset Growth - Total assets of the insurance industry reached 4.06463 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with life insurance companies holding 3.57526 trillion yuan and property insurance companies holding 314.81 billion yuan [3] - Net assets totaled 367.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [3]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 二是采购量增加、出厂价反弹、预期改善。制造业采购量反弹 1.6 个百分点至 51.1%，原材料库存增 0.5 个 百分点至 47.8%，而原材料购进价回调 0.5 个百分点至 53.1%，反映企业趁着价格涨幅收窄而增加采购、库存降 幅也相应收窄。出厂价反弹 0.7 个百分点至 48.9%，为最近四个月高点。值得注意的是，生产经营预期大幅反弹 2.4 个百分点至 55.5%的高位，是最近 20 个月高点，指向企业对十五五开年预期乐观。 第二，建筑业大幅反弹。12 月建筑业商务活动指数反弹 3.2 个百分点至 52.8%，是下半年最高。统计局解 释主要是受部分南方省份近期气温偏高、以及两节临近企业抢抓施工进度等因素带动。新订单也反弹 1.3 个百分 点至 47.4%，是今年初以来最高，但仍低于荣枯线。而建筑业从业人员分项下跌 0.8 个百分点至 41.0%。从订单 和从业人员来看，建筑业还有修复空间。 第三，服务业也在反弹，但幅度小于制造业和建筑业。12 月服务业 PMI 反弹 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%，连续 第二个月低于 50%。新订单反弹 1.8 个百分点至 47.3%，表现 ...

出海逐浪，金融乘势而行 非银金融2026年投资策略 华西证券非银金融团队 2026年1月6日 证券分析师：罗惠洲 SAC NO:S1120520070004 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 1、非银行情复盘：2025年初至12月28日，非银金融上涨12.12%，在31个申万一级行业中排第19；跑输上证指数6.13个百分点。非银 市盈率11.62倍，在一级行业中排第23；加权市净率1.79倍，为过去十年最低37%分位。 2、业绩展望：46家可比上市券商在2025年前三季度实现调整后营收4326亿元，归母净利润1790亿元；同比分别增加45%和62%。经纪 净收入和自营净收益的高增支撑2025年行业业绩。 2025年前三季度，五家A股上市险企归母净利润合计达4,260亿元，在去年同期高基数基础上同比+33.5%。考虑到2025年第四季度 权益市场相比去年同期表现更好，我们预计上市险企2025年全年净利润将继续保持两位数增速。 3、政策梳理：2025年4月25日，中共中央政治局会议提出，"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，释放了明确的积极信号。2026年，各监管 部门的"十五五"规划和各省市金融业"十五 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong resilience of leading white goods companies, highlighting their high dividend yields, with Gree Electric at 7.3%, Midea Group at 5.1%, Hisense Home Appliances at 4.9%, and Haier Smart Home at 4.6% [6][22] - The "Home Appliance +" strategy indicates opportunities in extending the appliance industry into robotics, with companies like Midea Group and Fuhua Co. making significant advancements [6][58] - The export market shows potential, particularly in the U.S. real estate sector, with expectations of demand recovery due to anticipated interest rate cuts and housing stimulus policies [6][70] Section Summaries 2025 Home Appliance Review - The home appliance index has shown a modest increase of 7.7% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 9.7 percentage points [11][14] - The market style in 2025 has favored growth stocks, while the home appliance sector has leaned towards value, leading to a mismatch in market expectations [13][14] - The public fund allocation in the home appliance sector is at a historical low of 2.94%, indicating potential for future growth as external demand remains optimistic [18][19] Dividends - Leading white goods companies maintain high dividend yields, with Gree Electric at 7.3%, Supor at 6.1%, and Midea Group at 5.1%, reflecting strong earnings resilience [24][29] - The report suggests that the dividend rates for companies like Midea and Haier may continue to increase, supported by robust profit growth [24][30] Domestic Sales - The national subsidy policy has positively impacted consumer confidence, with a clear trend towards structural upgrades in appliance consumption [34] - The sales growth of home appliances has been driven by the "trade-in" policy, although growth rates have shown a declining trend in the latter part of the year [34][39] - The air conditioning market has maintained stable pricing, with a continued trend towards mid-to-high-end products [39] "Home Appliance +" - Midea Group has made significant investments in robotics, with humanoid robots already in practical application within factories [58] - Fuhua Co. is expected to launch its grain storage robots in 2026, indicating a diversification into new growth areas [59] - Key component manufacturers like Huaxiang Co. and Hanyu Group are positioned to benefit from the robotics trend, focusing on core components such as reducers and harmonic drives [64][65] Exports - The U.S. real estate market is expected to recover, with potential interest rate cuts and housing stimulus policies likely to boost demand for home appliances [71][84] - Retail inventory levels in the U.S. are high, which may affect sales performance in the short term, but long-term housing demand remains strong [76][83] - The report anticipates that if mortgage rates fall below 6%, there could be a significant recovery in demand within the real estate chain [84]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong investment rating to the aerospace industry, particularly highlighting SpaceX's potential for significant valuation growth due to its innovative technologies and market positioning [2][5]. Core Insights - SpaceX is projected to achieve 170 launches in 2025 at a cost of $27 million per launch, establishing a robust commercial moat through reusable technology and significant contracts with NASA and other clients [2]. - The Starlink project has evolved into a three-pronged business model of manufacturing, operation, and technology premium, with expected revenues of $15.6 billion by 2026, contributing significantly to SpaceX's valuation [3]. - The development of space data centers is seen as a second growth curve for SpaceX, potentially generating $9.5 billion in profits and adding $332.5 billion to its valuation [4]. Summary by Sections 01 Launch Services: Reusable Technology Constructs Absolute Moat - SpaceX's valuation has increased nearly 30,000 times since its inception, driven by its leading launch capabilities and cost advantages [9]. - In 2025, SpaceX is expected to conduct 170 launches, dominating the global market and significantly outperforming competitors [15]. - The Falcon 9 rocket's launch cost has decreased by 70% compared to traditional rockets, enhancing SpaceX's competitive edge [15][20]. 02 Starlink: From Global Connectivity to Direct Mobile Access - Starlink has become the largest low Earth orbit satellite constellation, with over 10,000 satellites launched, and is expected to generate substantial revenue growth [50]. - The V2.0 Mini satellites have optimized the economic model, increasing bandwidth capacity while reducing costs significantly [50]. - Starlink's business model has transitioned from supplementary coverage to a core operational base, with a focus on high-margin government contracts [56]. 03 Space Data Centers: The Ultimate Solution in the AI Era - SpaceX's space data centers are positioned to overcome physical limitations in AI computing, leveraging the unique advantages of the space environment [81]. - The potential for high energy output and efficient cooling in space could lead to significant operational cost reductions [81]. - The report highlights the challenges of traditional aerospace costs, emphasizing the need for reduced launch costs to make space data centers viable [85].

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 收购嘉乐剩余少数股权，贡献业绩增厚 [Table_Title2] 开润股份(300577) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 300577 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 26.57/15.2 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 50.51 | | 最新收盘价： | 21.06 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 29.42 | | | | 自由流通股数(亿) | 139.72 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告其全资子公司滁州米润科技有限公司拟以自有资金或自筹资金人民币 3.36 亿元收购泰安玖安投 资服务合伙企业持有的上海嘉乐股份有限公司 24%股份；拟以自有资金或自筹资金人民币 0.58 亿元收购嘉兴弘 之帆股权投资合伙企业持有的上海嘉乐 4.1520%股份，本次交易完成后，上海嘉乐将成为公司全资子公司。 分析判断: 2025 年 9 月 22 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：前高的考验 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 12 月 29 日，时间距离跨年仅剩三个交易日，但市场并不平静。股市表现先强后弱，多数股指全天走出倒 V 型行情，债市全天大幅调整，部分中长久期品种收益率上行幅度高达 3-5bp。 权益市场缩量下跌。万得全 A下跌 0.29%，全天成交额 2.16 万亿元，较上周五（12 月 26 日）缩量 234 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数下跌 0.71%，恒生科技下跌 0.30%。南向资金净流出 34.14 亿港元，其中招商银行净流 入 9.71 亿港元，而中国移动、阿里巴巴分别净流出 14.50 亿港元和 10.24 亿港元。 盘中再现冲高回落，资金在指数前高附近激烈博弈。近两个交易日行情均出现盘中大幅回落的情况，原因来 看，万得全 A 已涨至 10 月和 11 月前高附近，此处的亏损筹码已基本扭亏，或许更倾向于兑现。事实上，前高附 近资金态度难免出现分歧，而指数距离确认趋势，仅有咫尺之遥。若指数强势上涨突破前高，意味 ...

Group 1 - The core investment theme for the pharmaceutical sector in 2026 is the innovation drug industry chain, with a clear trend towards international business development and accelerated commercialization of domestic products [2][3]. - The CXO sector is experiencing continuous improvement in performance and orders, supported by favorable financing conditions that benefit the industry's upward trajectory [3]. - The medical device sector is focusing on two main lines: international expansion and innovation [3]. Group 2 - The latest trends in medical insurance show a decline in total expenditure for the first ten months of 2025, amounting to 1,903.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% [5][7]. - The total income of the medical insurance fund for the same period reached 2,352 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, indicating a slowdown in income growth [7][11]. - The number of medical insurance beneficiaries and hospitalization cases continues to grow, with 6.07 billion total beneficiaries in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18% [11]. Group 3 - The average medical insurance cost per visit decreased in 2024, with the average cost for employees at 629 yuan (down 10%) and for residents at 351 yuan (down 12%) [15]. - The average hospitalization cost also saw a decline, with employees averaging 11,707 yuan (down 3.8%) and residents at 7,408 yuan (down 3.5%) [15]. Group 4 - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is witnessing a significant increase in license-out transactions, with over 100 deals completed in 2025, totaling more than 110 billion USD [21][32]. - The number of license-out transactions involving upfront payments exceeding 100 million USD has also risen, indicating a growing interest from global pharmaceutical companies in Chinese innovations [21][32]. - The ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) market is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size exceeding 16 billion USD in 2025, driven by several successful product launches [38]. Group 5 - The Chinese government is actively supporting the innovation drug sector through various policies aimed at enhancing accessibility and encouraging high-quality innovation [16][18]. - The proportion of medical insurance spending on innovative drugs is steadily increasing, with 149 innovative drugs included in the insurance coverage over the past seven years [90][94]. - The average price reduction for innovative drugs during negotiations with the national medical insurance has been around 60%, with some drugs seeing reductions as high as 94% [88][94].