Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Nickel supply from Indonesia is expected to contract, providing support for nickel ore prices. As of January 16, the LME nickel spot price was $17,625 per ton, down 0.28% from January 9, while the total LME nickel inventory increased by 0.33% to 285,732 tons. The Shanghai nickel price rose by 5.01% to 144,000 yuan per ton during the same period [1] - The cobalt raw material supply in China is expected to remain structurally tight for a long time, with cobalt prices likely to continue rising. As of January 16, the price of electrolytic cobalt was 455,000 yuan per ton, down 1.30% from January 9 [2][5] - Antimony prices have stopped falling and are expected to be supported by improved demand and tight supply. As of January 15, the average price of domestic antimony concentrate was 142,500 yuan per ton, up 1.42% from January 8 [6] - Lithium carbonate prices have continued to rise significantly, with the average market price reaching 157,900 yuan per ton as of January 16, up 12.72% from January 9. The demand for lithium is expected to remain strong [8][19] - The price of tungsten is expected to rise further due to tight supply conditions. As of January 16, the price of white tungsten concentrate (65%) was 505,500 yuan per ton, up 5.20% from January 9 [13][21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are expected to be supported by supply constraints from Indonesia, with a projected mining quota of 250-260 million tons for 2026, lower than market expectations. The market is also concerned about additional taxes on by-products like cobalt and iron [1][16] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to export quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a projected production of 29,000 tons globally in 2024, a 21.8% increase year-on-year [5][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by tight supply and improved demand, with expectations of further price increases due to ongoing supply constraints, especially in northern China [6][18] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by strong demand and supply uncertainties. The average price reached 157,900 yuan per ton, with expectations for continued strong performance in the near term [8][19] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is facing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to rise further. The domestic mining quota for tungsten is projected to be lower than previous years, contributing to supply constraints [13][21] Uranium Industry - The uranium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices remaining high due to geopolitical factors and structural shortages in supply. The global uranium price was $63.51 per pound as of December [14][15]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - From January 12 to 16, the liquidity showed unexpected fluctuations, with R001 rising from 1.35% to 1.49% and R007 exceeding 1.60% due to a lack of buyout reverse repos[1] - As of January 16, the bank's lending scale returned to over 5 trillion yuan, providing some support to the liquidity[3] - The expected liquidity gap for the upcoming tax period is approximately 2 trillion yuan, compounded by 1.1 trillion yuan of public market expirations and 0.25 trillion yuan of government debt payments, totaling over 3.3 trillion yuan[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The liquidity rates are expected to remain loose, similar to January 2024, due to structural interest rate cuts and a relatively late Spring Festival this year[2] - Historical trends show three liquidity patterns in January: tight (2021, 2025), slight convergence (2023), and relatively loose (2022, 2024)[2] - The central bank is likely to increase liquidity injections during the tax period to maintain market stability, with a reference to a net liquidity injection of about 1.5 trillion yuan in January 2024[3] Group 3: Public Market and Government Debt - From January 19 to 23, a total of 11.015 trillion yuan will expire in the public market, including 9.515 trillion yuan in reverse repos[4] - The estimated net payment for government bonds from January 19 to 23 is 2.465 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week's -0.485 trillion yuan[8] - The government bond issuance is accelerating, with a planned issuance of 7.066 trillion yuan for the week, compared to 2.818 trillion yuan the previous week[41] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit is decreasing, with 6,799 billion yuan maturing from January 19 to 23, down from 8,339 billion yuan the previous week[50] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit increased to 1.65%, with significant contributions from state-owned and joint-stock banks[48]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 本周美股市场震荡，港股市场反弹 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股市场出现回调。虽然微软、脸 书已经经历了将近长达半年的回调，美股科技七姐妹处于分化 震荡阶段，但是目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 36.67；费 城半导体指数市盈率仍有 45.3，仍然处于 45 以上的区间；纳斯 达克指数的市盈率上升至 42.02，美股科技类资产相关估值水平 仍然偏高。由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加二线以及中小科技 股过热且一线科技股回调疲软，美股科技股存在一定的市场结 构问题，美股科技指数中期仍存在一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍然有 40.8，现阶段是除了互联网泡沫的峰值阶 段之外，席勒市盈率在 40 以上区间保持时间最久的一轮区间。 由于特朗普的经济政策依然存在反复无常的可能性，且美股估 值仍然偏高，美股中金融、通讯服务、消费、工业等行业里面 一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化的可能性。本周欧洲 不同市场涨跌不 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 二手房挂牌价仍处跌势 1）政策跟踪：央行联合金融监管总局下调商用房首付比例至 30% 2026 年 1 月 15 日，中国人民银行会同国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，决定将商业用房（含"商住两用 房"）购房贷款最低首付款比例统一调整为不低于 30%。相较于此前普遍执行的 50%首付要求，本次政策大幅 降低了商业地产的置业门槛，杠杆空间显著提升。通知同时明确坚持"因城施策"原则，授权人民银行各省级 分行及金融监管总局各省级派出机构，在全国统一底线基础上，根据辖区内各城市政府调控要求，自主确定当 地商业用房贷款最低首付款比例下限。此举旨在进一步降低非住宅类物业的购房成本，有望激活商办市场流动 性，助力商业地产库存去化。 2）周度：新房、二手房成交均边际修复 新房市场呈现低位企稳态势，同比降幅有所收敛。经历了上周季节性回调后，本周新房市场出现止跌迹 象。本周 38 城新房成交面积录得 200 万平，环比小幅回升 6%，不过当前成交量尚未 ...

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 17.02, with a median of 13.55 and a maximum of 30.60[9] - The PE (TTM) excluding financial and oil sectors is 27.80, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 14.66, while the ChiNext Index stands at 39.66[9] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.20, with a median of 10.32 and a maximum of 22.67[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a PE (TTM) of 24.11, reflecting a significant valuation compared to other sectors[62] - The Hang Seng Index's PE has fluctuated between a minimum of 7.36 and a maximum of 22.67 since 2010[58] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.62, with a median of 21.18 and a maximum of 41.99[82] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 42.02, indicating a high valuation compared to other indices[90] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a PE (TTM) of 30.38, with a historical maximum of 34.70[94] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and banking sectors have lower PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation[24] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, shows higher PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation[24] - The consumer sector, particularly in liquor and pharmaceuticals, has a PE of 18.29 and 38.70 respectively, indicating strong market interest[34]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The report provides a deep analysis of the operational status, financial performance, industry landscape, company development, and potential risks of Baima Tea Industry, based on its Hong Kong IPO prospectus [1]. Company Overview - Baima Tea Industry is positioned as a leading high-end tea enterprise in China, benefiting from the structural upgrade of the tea industry characterized by "overall dispersion and high-end concentration" [2]. - The company has a well-established marketing system and strong overall profitability, with a gross margin stable around 55% supported by its high-end product structure [3]. Future Outlook - The company’s development path aligns well with industry trends, focusing on brand, channel, and process barriers to continuously increase market share [4]. - The successful IPO will provide strong momentum for capacity upgrades, brand promotion, channel expansion, and digital transformation [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.20 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.86 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.66%, +11.41%, and +16.53% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are forecasted to be 2.71, 3.07, and 3.85 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.54, 11.08, and 8.82 [5]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese tea market is expected to grow from approximately 288.9 billion RMB in 2020 to about 325.8 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 3.0% [46]. - The high-end tea market is projected to grow at a faster rate of 5.6% from 2024 to 2029, driven by consumer upgrades and brand recognition [47][48]. Competitive Position - Baima Tea holds a leading market share of 1.7% in the high-end tea segment, with a revenue of 1.758 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting an 18.2% increase from 2022 [61]. - The company has a robust channel presence with over 3,500 offline stores, the highest in the industry, and a significant number of franchise stores [61].

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] Alamos Gold 2025Q4 黄金产量环比减少 0.1%至 4.40 吨，季度收入达 5.68 亿美元创历史新高 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 16 日 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►2025Q4 生产及业绩情况 2025Q4 产量为 14.15 万盎司（4.40 吨），环比减少 0.1%，同 比增加 0.9%。 2025Q4 售出 14.21 万盎司黄金（4.42 吨），平均实现价格为 3,997 美元/盎司，创季度收入新高达 5.68 亿美元（含白银销售 额）。平均黄金实现价格低于伦敦午后定盘价，反映出最后 12,346 盎司黄金交付至 2024 年 7 月签订的黄金预付款协议， 该协议基于 2,524 美元/盎司的预付价格执行。2024 年预付款协 议现已完成。 ►2025 年生产及业绩情况 2025 年总产量为 54.54 万盎司（16.96 吨）。第四季度及全年 产量均低于预期，主要受 Island 金矿区和 Young-Davidson 矿 区产量 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, copper production at the Kamoa-Kakula mine decreased by 48.1% year-on-year to 69,419 tonnes, while zinc production increased by 16.6% quarter-on-quarter to 61,444 tonnes [2][4] - The Kamoa-Kakula mine achieved a total copper production of 389,000 tonnes in 2025, aligning with the revised annual production guidance of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes [2][9] - The Kipushi project saw a significant increase in zinc production, with a year-on-year growth of 89.1% in Q4 2025, attributed to capacity enhancements and improved power supply [4][6] Production and Operational Highlights - Copper production in 2025 included a record output of 144,000 tonnes from the Phase III concentrator, which processed 6.4 million tonnes of ore, exceeding the design capacity by approximately 30% [3][9] - The average copper recovery rate for the Kamoa-Kakula mine was 85.6% for the year, with the Phase III concentrator achieving a record recovery rate of 88.2% in Q4 [11] - The Kipushi concentrator's zinc production reached 61,444 tonnes in Q4 2025, with a notable increase in ore processing capacity following a successful technical upgrade [4][11] Future Production Guidance - The Kamoa-Kakula mine's 2026 production guidance is based on various assumptions and estimates, with a median copper production target of 400,000 tonnes, representing about 80% of the smelter's total capacity [9][12] - The smelter is expected to ramp up to an annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes by the end of 2026, prioritizing the processing of concentrates from the Phase I, II, and III operations [9][12]

Financial Data Overview - In December 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 22,075 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6,462 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 18,153 billion yuan[1] - The new RMB loan scale was 9,100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan, also higher than the market expectation of 6,794 billion yuan[1] Key Observations on December Financial Data - New government bond financing in December 2025 was only 6,833 billion yuan, down 10,733 billion yuan from 17,566 billion yuan in December 2024, which was a major drag on social financing[2] - New loans to the real economy reached 9,804 billion yuan, an increase of 1,402 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first positive growth since June 2025[2] Loan Trends - New corporate loans in December 2025 were 10,700 billion yuan, the second-highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, following 12,637 billion yuan in 2022[3] - New household loans were -916 billion yuan, with short-term loans at -1,023 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 100 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline but a slower rate compared to previous months[3] Consumer and Business Loan Dynamics - The decline in short-term consumer loans was -1,041 billion yuan, while medium to long-term consumer loans were -1,318 billion yuan, suggesting cautious consumer behavior in housing purchases[4] - The overall corporate financing demand showed a steady recovery, with total financing needs from September to December 2025 reaching 1.64 trillion, 0.56 trillion, 1.27 trillion, and 1.23 trillion yuan respectively, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20,955 billion yuan[5] Monetary Policy Signals - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates, bringing the one-year re-lending rate down to 1.25%[8] - Structural monetary tools are being emphasized to enhance credit availability, with an increase in the re-lending quota for small and micro enterprises by 5,000 billion yuan[8] Economic Outlook - The M1 money supply growth rate fell to 3.8% year-on-year, attributed to base effects, despite a strong performance in December 2025[6] - Overall, December's financial data indicates a temporary recovery in demand, with corporate financing willingness remaining strong, while household loan demand shows structural issues but marginal improvement in total[6]

往后看，"量顶"之后通常是涨势放缓，但牛市并不会就此终结，而更可能形成健康的慢牛。同时，题材参 与难度增大，当前更适合回归业绩，关注具备业绩保障的高景气主线。今日 Wind 预增指数上涨 1.35%，而业绩预 亏指数则下跌 2.88%，反映出业绩增长带来的安全边际受到青睐。 港股做多共识弱于 A股，博弈反弹需要耐心。尽管港股在开年后基本处于反弹趋势之中，但其行情时常波 动，市场情绪仍相对谨慎。南向资金在 1 月 8 日之后再度净流出，同样显示出资金的保守态度。原因来看，隔夜 美股表现不佳、A股情绪降温和携程反垄断立案调查或是影响因素。往后看，若要在做多共识夯实之前博弈反 弹，需要提高对波动的耐受程度，降低短线操作频率，等待人气的回归；同时关注指数是否继续得到均线支撑， 或反映了反弹趋势是否仍然较强。 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报： 牛市，仍是共识 1 月 15 日，权益市场以震荡为主，先调整后回升。万得全 A下跌 0.16%，全天成交额 2.94 万亿元，较昨日 （1 月 14 日）缩量 1.05 万亿元。港股 ...