1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From December 15 - 19, the scale of credit - bond ETFs increased by 19 billion yuan to 528.2 billion yuan, mainly contributed by science - innovation bond ETFs which grew by 18.6 billion yuan [1]. - Most science - innovation bond ETFs have been reducing their weighted duration of PCF holding bonds since December. Benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs are also slightly reducing their duration [2]. - The median of the "non - component bond - component bond" spread of science - innovation bond ETFs slightly increased by 0.7bp to 6.9bp this week, and the trading activity of component bonds increased slightly but is still at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Scale of ETFs - On December 19, the total scale of 35 credit - bond ETFs was 528.2 billion yuan, 19 billion yuan more than on December 12. Among science - innovation bond ETFs, 5 products had a scale increase of over 15%. The scale of Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF increased the most, by 5.4 billion yuan to 32 billion yuan, and it has grown by 11.1 billion yuan since December, becoming the largest in scale. The scale of YinHua Science - Innovation Bond ETF increased by 34%, growing 3.7 billion yuan to 14.5 billion yuan [1][5]. Duration of ETFs - Since December, most science - innovation bond ETFs have been reducing their duration. This week, 15 out of them (63%) continued to slightly reduce their duration, with a median decline of 0.02 years. The duration of Harvest Science - Innovation Bond ETF decreased the most, by 0.14 years to 3.4 years. 8 products increased their duration, with a maximum increase of 0.35 years. Benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs also slightly reduced their duration, with only 3 products having a slight increase and the median decline of the other 5 being 0.28 years [2]. Bond Trading of ETFs - While reducing the duration, science - innovation bond ETFs mainly increased and decreased their holdings of relatively short - term bonds. They mainly increased their holdings of 2 - 3 - year bonds for three consecutive weeks in December, with the main industries being finance, urban investment, and coal. The reduction was also mainly in 2 - 3 - year bonds, with relatively scattered industries. Benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs mainly increased their holdings of 4 - 5 - year and 2 - 3 - year bonds, with the main industries being industrial investment platforms, finance, and building materials, and mainly reduced their holdings in financial holding and water service industries [2]. Valuation of ETFs - The median of the "non - component bond - component bond" spread of science - innovation bond ETFs did not continue to decline this week, slightly increasing by 0.7bp to 6.9bp, possibly due to the significant increase in the scale of science - innovation bond ETFs from December 15 - 19 and a slight increase in the trading activity of component bonds. The ratio of the trading volume of science - innovation bond ETF component bonds to that of credit bonds was 6.7%, 0.7 percentage points higher than last week, but the trading activity was still at a low level [3].

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the "at-home dining" sector, with over 10,000 stores and is entering a new phase of expansion after a period of consolidation [4][14] - The company has strengthened its supply chain through self-production and cold chain acquisitions, enhancing its operational efficiency and cost control [2][3] - The company is exploring various store formats, including standard stores, town stores, and new business models like "锅圈小炒," which are expected to drive future growth [3][4] Company Overview - The company has developed a diverse business structure focused on the "at-home dining" market, with a total of over 10,000 stores as of June 2025 [14] - The company has undergone strategic upgrades to meet the growing demand for home dining, expanding its product offerings beyond hot pot ingredients to include a variety of meal solutions [14][39] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 76.46 billion, 90.83 billion, and 108.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.18%, 18.79%, and 19.13% [7] - The projected net profit for the same years is 4.37 billion, 5.33 billion, and 6.64 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth rates of 89.65%, 21.84%, and 24.68% [7] - The company maintains a strong gross margin, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability due to enhanced supply chain management and product offerings [21][54] Competitive Landscape - The "at-home dining" market has seen significant growth, with the company leading in retail sales, achieving a market share of 3.0% in 2022 [39][46] - The market for at-home dining products is expected to continue expanding, driven by changing consumer habits and preferences for home-cooked meals [39][40]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The space new infrastructure competition is accelerating the industry, with the U.S. government taking measures to ensure its "space advantage" through increased R&D and private sector investment [1][10] - The hollow fiber industry is at a critical window for iteration and evolution, with potential demand driven by AI applications [3][11] - The current geopolitical climate and technology competition between the U.S. and China are expected to keep the market volatile, suggesting a cautious and neutral allocation strategy [6][13] Summary by Sections Space New Infrastructure - The U.S. aims to attract at least $50 billion in private investment in the space sector by 2028, with plans for lunar exploration and nuclear energy applications in space [1][10] - The rapid launch of domestic satellite constellations and the commercialization of satellite IoT applications are expected to expand market size significantly [1][10] - Beneficiaries in the satellite communication and IoT sectors include companies like Chengchang Technology, Guobo Electronics, and Zhenlei Technology [1][10] Hollow Fiber Demand - Hollow fiber technology offers advantages such as low latency, wide spectrum, low loss, and low nonlinearity, making it a disruptive solution for traditional fiber optics [3][11] - The technology is still in the early stages of commercialization, but its characteristics are expected to meet the growing demand for AI model connectivity [3][11] - Key beneficiaries in the hollow fiber sector include Changfei Fiber, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Fenghuo Communication [3][12] Current Market Perspective - The market is anticipated to remain volatile due to global geopolitical conflicts and skepticism regarding AI investments, with a recommendation for a cautious and neutral approach [6][13] - Long-term prospects remain positive for domestic AI computing power, optical modules, and the 6G industry trend, which are expected to catalyze market opportunities [6][13] - Recommended sectors include computing and communication infrastructure, optical network upgrades, and edge computing [13][14]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate production due to breakthroughs in AI technology and increasing demand for cost reduction, with domestic companies likely to benefit significantly [1][14][15] - The global energy storage battery demand is entering a high-growth phase, driven by the maturation of the domestic energy storage market and frequent power shortages in overseas markets [2][18][20] - The photovoltaic industry is set for profitability recovery as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes capacity regulation and price monitoring to optimize supply-demand dynamics [3][27] - Wind turbine manufacturers are expanding into hydrogen production, enhancing their growth potential through the synergy of wind power and green hydrogen [4][29] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The partnership between Mercado Libre and Agility Robotics aims to address labor shortages and automate repetitive tasks, indicating a significant market opportunity for humanoid robots [1][14] - Key components such as dexterous hands and lightweight designs are critical for commercialization, with domestic manufacturers expected to lead in technological advancements [1][15][17] Electric Vehicles - Ford plans to invest $2 billion to modify its battery plants for energy storage production, targeting over 20GWh annual capacity by 2027 [2][18] - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to recover as demand increases, particularly for lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate, which are crucial for profitability [2][20][22] Renewable Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's focus on capacity control and price regulation is anticipated to enhance profitability for leading companies in the photovoltaic sector [3][27] - Wind turbine companies are actively exploring hydrogen production, with significant investments in projects that integrate wind energy and hydrogen production [4][29] Power Equipment & AIDC - The demand for power equipment is experiencing a boom due to rapid development in AIDC and ongoing investments in grid construction [8][9] - Companies with strong channel resources and technological capabilities in developed markets are expected to benefit from this high-demand environment [8]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the market is in a phase of stabilization, with expectations for market stability strengthening, but this does not determine the height of the market, indicating a continuation of the oscillating pattern [2][38] - The report notes that the A-share index remains near the levels before the significant drop on November 21, suggesting that there is a buildup of profit-taking pressure at this point [2][38] - The report highlights that the recent market fluctuations have led to a significant net inflow into broad-based ETFs, particularly those tracking the CSI A500, which indicates a positive response to stabilization policies [17][19] Group 2 - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, consumer goods, and dividend stocks, with new energy being a strong sector this year, although it has not fully recovered since the drop on November 21 [3][40] - The technology sector is noted to have a foundation for rebound, as structural risks have eased significantly, with indicators showing a decrease in concentration and high-priced stocks [44][46] - The report discusses the challenges faced by convertible bonds, particularly those nearing maturity, which are experiencing pressure due to time value decay and market aging, suggesting a need for cautious investment strategies [50][54][65]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - SpaceX's target valuation is approximately $800 billion, with a fundraising scale of about $40 billion from the sale of 5% of its shares, reflecting strong market enthusiasm for the space sector [16][24] - ARK's valuation model suggests that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach around $2.5 trillion by 2030, with optimistic scenarios estimating up to $3.1 trillion and pessimistic scenarios around $1.7 trillion, heavily reliant on the rapid reusability of the Starship [16][25] - SpaceX achieved 144 launches in 2025, surpassing all other entities combined, indicating a recovery signal for the industry [16][36] Summary by Sections 1. SpaceX Valuation and Market Position - SpaceX's expected revenue for 2025 is projected to exceed $15.5 billion, supporting its high valuation [23] - The company has seen its valuation double from $400 billion in July to $800 billion in December 2025, showcasing the market's positive outlook on the space industry [24] - The Falcon 9 rocket has a recovery success rate exceeding 98%, with launch costs reduced to $27 million per mission [16][36] 2. Lunar Competition and International Developments - The U.S. government is accelerating its space capabilities, including plans to deploy nuclear reactors on the Moon by 2030 and return humans to the Moon by 2028 through the Artemis program [17][51] - South Korea's INNOSPACE successfully launched its "Hanlight-NANO" rocket, marking a significant milestone for private space ventures in the country [17][52] - China's Long March 10 rocket is expected to make its maiden flight in mid-2026, capable of supporting deep space missions [17][6] 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks in the rocket sector include Aerospace Power, Superjet, Western Materials, and others [20] - Satellite-related companies include West Measurement Testing, Tianyin Electromechanical, and others [20] - Companies involved in space computing include Shunhao Co., Puxian Technology, and others [20]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Nike's FY26Q2 performance showed regional revenue changes: North America +9%, EMEA -1%, Greater China -16%, APLA -4%, with Greater China significantly dragging down overall performance due to weak foot traffic, poor new product sell-through rates, and aging inventory [3][16] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a priority, focusing on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services, and promoting investment recovery [4][17] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for FY26Q3, with expected revenue declines in certain regions and a focus on the "Win Now" strategy in Greater China [3][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Nike's performance in FY26Q2 highlighted a significant decline in Greater China, attributed to weak customer traffic and inventory issues [3][16] - The company is implementing pilot store projects in Greater China to improve sales performance [3][16] 2. Market Review - The SW textile and apparel sector increased by 2.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.32% [19] - Key stocks with the highest gains included Yimin Group and Huamao Co., while stocks like Hason and *ST Bosen faced significant declines [19][24] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - The China cotton price index rose by 2.96% year-to-date, while wool prices increased by 29.52% since the beginning of the year [34][40] - The USDA forecasts a 0.34% increase in total cotton production for 2025, with a slight decline in demand [46] 3.2 Export Data - Textile and apparel exports from January to November 2025 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a notable decline in apparel exports [54] - The export value of tarpaulins and canopies fell by 21.18% in October 2025 [59] 4. Industry News - Notable developments include the opening of Descente's flagship store in Beijing and the re-entry of Spanish fast fashion brands into the Chinese market [10][4]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 年末存单利率或迎下行拐点 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：税期，资金面继续平稳 12月 15-19日，税期资金面依旧维持低位运行。周内来看，15日为税期首日， 2000 亿元 6M 买断式逆回购净投放落地，同时为保持资金利率稳定，央行在短期资 金投放上维持常规续作安排。尽管如此，税期期间隔夜利率 R001 始终维持在 1.34- 1.35%水平，7 天资金 R007 也基本稳定于 1.50%附近。 税期之后，跨年因素接替成为影响资金面的主要逻辑。18 日起拆借 14 天资金 可跨年，除了常规续作 7 天逆回购以外，央行连续两日额外投放 1000 亿元 14 天逆 回购，呵护跨年资金面，进一步推动了资金宽松预期。受此影响，18-19日 R014仅 小幅上行 7bp 至 1.62%，跨年压力整体可控。与此同时，隔夜与 7 天资金利率仍延 续此前稳态，日均波动不足 1bp，R001、R007 分别收于 1.35%、1.51%。 ►展望：年末存单利率或迎 ...

李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（1215-1219） 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年12月20日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年12月19日 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、机构重仓个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业与个股估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 17.15 5 10 15 20 25 ...