Market Performance - On January 7, the stock market showed strong resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up, marking a record of fourteen consecutive gains[1] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 2.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 493 billion yuan compared to January 6[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.56%[1] Capital Flow - Net inflow of southbound funds amounted to 9.178 billion HKD, with Tencent and Xiaomi seeing net inflows of 1.955 billion HKD and 1.633 billion HKD respectively[1] - Conversely, China Mobile and SMIC experienced net outflows of 1.126 billion HKD and 1.070 billion HKD respectively[1] Debt Market - Long-term interest rates showed a "V-shaped" reversal, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.90% and 2.34% respectively, up by 1.6bp and 2.5bp[5] - The 10-year government bond yield is facing a critical level at 1.90%, while some 30-year bonds have exceeded 2.40%[5] Commodity Market - The commodity market saw a net inflow of nearly 12 billion yuan, with the black series (steel and coal) receiving over 4.5 billion yuan in capital[9] - Precious metals faced selling pressure, with silver down 2.07% and gold slightly down 0.17%[9] Sector Performance - Semiconductor materials and equipment led the gains, with significant increases in prices for DDR5 and NAND Flash, up 573% and 63% year-on-year respectively[3] - The rare earth index rose by 4.23%, driven by the upward trend in industrial non-ferrous metals[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The state of the fundamental and capital markets determines the underlying tone of the bond market. The focus of the game remains the intensification of "loose monetary policy" and its specific implementation forms. In January 2026, the situation is neutral to optimistic. The primary issuance pressure of government bonds is controllable. The regulatory scale for non-banks is marginally relaxed, which is beneficial for the stability of the liabilities of public bond funds. The capital market may face potential seasonal pressure, but there is a high probability of additional central bank injections. The allocation demand at the beginning of the year can lock in the upper limit of interest rates. The coupons and spreads of the medium and long - term ends of interest - rate bonds are highly cost - effective, and the bond market may start a bullish trend [2][29][61]. Summary by Directory 1. December Bond Market: A Glimmer of Warmth Amidst the Cold - In December, the long - end interest rate showed an "up - down - up" N - shaped trend. The 10 - year Treasury yield reached a high of 1.87% at the beginning of the month and a second - high of 1.86% at the end of the month, and dropped to 1.83% in the middle of the month. The bond market mainly traded on four themes: the central government's policy orientation for the following year, the possibility of short - term intensification of the central bank's "loose monetary policy", the supply ratio of ultra - long government bonds, and the year - end ranking competition among institutions [1][13]. - Compared with October - November, in December, the capital interest rate was more stable and lower, and the bond market sentiment became more positive, shifting from completely ignoring the possibility of "loose monetary policy" to attempting to play the game [17]. - Regarding various bond market varieties, the issuance price of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased at the beginning of the month and decreased in the second half of the month. The interest - rate bond curve steepened significantly, with the yield of 30 - year Treasury bonds rising by 8bp. The credit bond market's development slowed down marginally, and only some over - adjusted varieties in November had a rebound [23][24]. 2. Learning from History: Fundamental and Capital Markets as Key References for the Bond Market in Early January - In the past five years, the movement of long - end interest rates in January has been inconsistent. When the economic fundamentals were good at the beginning of the year and the capital market gradually tightened, bond yields increased, as seen in 2021, 2023, and 2025. When the fundamental data was below expectations and the monetary policy was proactive, it was beneficial for the bond market, as in 2022 and 2024 [27]. - Looking forward to January 2026, in addition to the fundamental and capital market conditions, non - seasonal pricing factors also need to be considered, including the supply rhythm of government bonds, regulatory changes in bond fund redemption fees, policy directions, and institutional behaviors [29]. 3. Four Key Concerns for the Bond Market in January Supply Rhythm - The net supply pressure of government bonds in January is about 1.3 trillion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 4.00 - 4.12 trillion yuan, with a "V" - shaped monthly distribution [3][36]. - The sentiment towards ultra - long - term bonds may be cautious in the first half of January and may recover in the second half as bond issuance progresses. The specific term structure of government bond supply in the first quarter still needs observation [37]. Regulatory Changes - The constraints on bond fund redemption fees have been relaxed. The new regulations may have three regulatory intentions: stabilizing market pricing, weakening the liquidity management attribute of bond funds, and emphasizing fairness to investors. The issue of customized bond funds may continue to be the focus of rectification [4][41]. - After the new regulations were officially announced, the concerns of investors eased. In early January 2026, the bond market may achieve a good start, with interest - rate pricing potentially self - repairing and the possibility of an inflow of institutional incremental funds [41]. Policy Direction - In January, the capital market faces more disturbances than in December, including large - scale tax payments, Spring Festival cash - withdrawal demand, a credit boom, and proactive fiscal policies. The capital interest rate has an inherent upward momentum, and the inter - bank market's dependence on central bank injections will increase [6][42]. - There are two options for the central bank's monetary policy: "strong action" (possibly a reserve requirement ratio cut if the Q4 economic performance is significantly below expectations) and "weak action" (increasing the net injection of basic tools if the December data rebounds and the recovery continues into January) [48][49]. Institutional Behavior - Allocation - driven investors may be the key force in determining interest - rate pricing at the beginning of 2026. Banks and insurance companies' self - operated investments are evaluated annually, and the beginning of the year is an important allocation period. At present, the trading - driven investors' influence on the interest - rate center has weakened and they tend to follow the allocation - driven investors [7][51]. - For insurance companies, a 30 - year Treasury yield of 2.30% may be an important allocation point. For large banks, a 1.85% coupon rate on 7 - 10 - year Treasury bonds is acceptable when the spread is cost - effective [52][57]. 4. January Strategy: Seize the Opportunity - In general, the situation in January is neutral to optimistic. However, at the beginning of 2026, the bond market adjusted sharply. The direct reason may be the learning effect from the 2025 bond market adjustment, and the fundamental reason is the lack of significant profit - making effects in the bond market [61][62]. - The bond market is gradually entering a state where inter - bank market funds are relatively abundant and the duration of trading - type institutional portfolios is low. The coupons and spreads of the medium and long - term ends of interest - rate bonds are highly cost - effective. It is advisable to wait for allocation - driven investors to enter the market first, followed by trading - driven investors. In January, it may be a good time to seize opportunities. Short - term significantly adjusted varieties such as 5 - 10 - year Treasury bonds and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds have trading value. When the 10 - year Treasury yield is above 1.85%, it may be a relatively safe replenishment window. For ultra - long - term bonds, it is advisable to wait until the end of the month when the supply term structure is clear [69][70].

Macro Environment Summary - The nominal GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, higher than 2024 but lower than 2023, with a decline from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.7% in Q3 [8][9] - The GDP deflator index has decreased to -1.08%, indicating deflationary pressures [8] - Non-manufacturing business expectations are stronger than manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI remaining below 50% for most months in 2025 [12][14] - Employment stability in manufacturing is better than in non-manufacturing, with manufacturing PMI for employment remaining stable [17][19] - Consumer confidence regarding employment has shown fluctuations, with a general upward trend in 2025 [21][23] - Retail sales growth has declined significantly, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% [27][29] - Real estate investment has seen a cumulative decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, with expectations of negative growth for four consecutive years [33][34] - Net exports have contributed positively to GDP growth, with total exports of 2.44 trillion yuan and imports of 1.67 trillion yuan from January to November 2025 [39][40] Express Delivery Industry - The growth rate of express delivery volume has significantly decreased from 22.4% in January-February 2025 to 5% in November, attributed to declining consumer demand and competition from instant retail [47][53] - Price changes in express delivery have led to a clear differentiation in demand, with rising costs affecting low-margin products and order-filling activities [57][61] - Different express companies have shown varying trends in volume growth and revenue per package, with Yunda experiencing negative volume growth but higher revenue per package compared to YTO [61][65] Aviation and Airport Industry - The number of civil transport airports in China is expected to reach 270 by the end of 2025, with significant progress in airport construction projects [75][77] - The fleet of major airlines has seen growth, with wide-body and narrow-body aircraft increasing by 8.9% and 13.3% respectively since the end of 2019 [81][82] - Domestic flight capacity has been adjusted, with a 1.8% decrease in weekly domestic flights for the winter-spring season of 2025 compared to the previous year [86][90] - Airlines are focusing on international routes, with a 17.3% increase in international flights compared to the previous year [90] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class has decreased by 6% year-on-year, reflecting a strategy to maintain passenger load factors [102][110] - The low oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB are expected to enhance profits for major airlines, with estimated profit increases ranging from 20.4 billion to 50 billion yuan depending on the airline [128]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the credit - bond market may gradually recover with the implementation of the new fund sales fee regulations, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand may restrict its performance. It is recommended to focus on varieties within 3 years, with a leveraged strategy to increase returns, and also pay attention to the potential demand for 5 - year varieties driven by amortized bond funds [1][2][3]. - After the implementation of the new regulations, the second - tier and perpetual bonds of large banks may experience a recovery. Since the second half of 2025, these bonds have significantly over - declined compared to general credit bonds, but the new regulations' formal release may ease market concerns and promote their recovery [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Short - term Bonds as a Shield, 4 - 5 - year Large Bank Second - tier and Perpetual Bonds as a Spear - **January Credit - Bond Supply - Demand Situation and Investment Focus**: In December 2025, due to factors such as changes in the expectation of broad money, concerns about ultra - long bond supply, and new fund sales regulations, the long - end interest rate was weak, and the credit - bond market showed a "short - strong, long - weak, high - rating dominant" structural market. In January 2026, the credit - bond market may recover, but the supply - demand pattern will be strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on varieties within 3 years, with short - duration sinking for urban investment bonds, and also pay attention to 4.5 - 5.5 - year public non - perpetual bonds [1][2][3]. - **Recovery of Second - tier and Perpetual Bonds**: Since the second half of 2025, the medium - and long - term second - tier and perpetual bonds of large banks have significantly over - declined compared to general credit bonds. After the formal release of the new regulations on December 31, 2025, market concerns may ease, and these bonds may experience a recovery. Currently, the 4 - 5 - year large - bank second - tier and perpetual bonds have higher holding - period yields than general credit bonds, with the 4 - year variety being more cost - effective [4][5]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, and Long - Duration Transaction Activity Declined - **December Issuance and Net Financing**: In December 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was positive and increased year - on - year. The issuance of short - duration bonds increased, and the weighted average issuance interest rate increased across the board, with a larger increase for medium - and long - duration bonds. The performance was divided, with the yields of medium - and high - grade bonds within 5Y and low - grade bonds within 3Y generally declining, and the spreads of 1Y short - duration and 5Y low - grade bonds widening significantly [41]. - **Provincial - Level Performance**: The net financing performance of each province in December was divided, with half of the provinces having negative net financing. The yields of public urban investment bonds in each province generally increased, with Liaoning and Yunnan performing worse [45][50]. - **Transaction Activity**: In December, the buying sentiment of urban investment bonds was still weak, with the overall TKN ratio and low - valuation ratio slightly decreasing. The long - duration transaction activity declined, and the AA(2) transaction ratio decreased, while the AA + ratio increased [53]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds: Supply Increased Significantly, and the Short - Duration Issuance Ratio Increased Significantly - **December Issuance and Net Financing**: In December 2025, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. The issuance of short - duration bonds increased significantly, and the issuance interest rate increased across the board, with a larger increase for 3 - 5 - year bonds. The spreads generally widened, with long - duration varieties performing worse [56][57][59]. - **Industry - Level Yield Performance**: The yields of public bonds in various industries generally decreased slightly. Among industries with over 50 billion yuan in outstanding public bonds, the public utilities and transportation industries performed well with a 2bp yield decline, while the real estate industry's yield increased significantly by 10bp [62]. 3.4 Bank Second - tier and Perpetual Bonds: Supply Increased, and Medium - and Long - Duration Yields Mostly Increased - **December Supply and Net Financing**: In December 2025, the supply of bank second - tier and perpetual bonds increased significantly, with the increase mainly coming from second - tier capital bonds. The issuance and net financing both increased significantly year - on - year [65]. - **Yield and Spread Performance**: The yields of bank second - tier and perpetual bonds were divided, with medium - and long - term second - tier capital bonds performing worse. The spreads generally widened, except for the 5Y AAA - and 2Y AA - perpetual bonds. Compared with medium - and short - term notes, AA and above second - tier and perpetual bonds performed weakly [69]. - **Transaction Activity**: The number of transactions of bank second - tier and perpetual bonds increased month - on - month, but the trading sentiment was still weak. The TKN ratios of second - tier capital bonds and perpetual bonds were 62% and 56% respectively, and the low - valuation ratios increased by 8pct and 3pct respectively. The transactions of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks were mainly concentrated in 3 - 5 - year medium - and long - duration varieties, while the trading sentiment of city commercial banks was weak, and the transactions showed a trend of extending duration [74].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The light industry and beauty sector is expected to stabilize and improve due to the dual drivers of domestic demand policies and steady export growth [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a year of enhanced domestic demand policies, coupled with consumers' increasing pursuit of high-quality living, creating significant growth opportunities for the industry [3] - The penetration rate of cross-border e-commerce has ample room for improvement, and the recovery of international relations and demand from emerging markets will further drive market expansion [3] Group 2: Beauty Sector - The cosmetics market is projected to grow steadily, with the skincare segment being the largest, reaching a market size of 4,619 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2029 [19] - The high-end cosmetics market is rapidly expanding, with the market size for high-end skincare products increasing from 749 billion yuan in 2019 to 1,144 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.84% [19] - Key companies in the beauty sector include: - **Mao Geping**: Revenue reached 25.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a growth rate of 31.28% [23] - **Lin Qingxuan**: Revenue grew to 10.52 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 98.28% increase [27] - **Marubi**: Revenue is expected to reach 29.70 billion yuan in 2024, recovering from previous declines [32] Group 3: Medical Aesthetics - The medical aesthetics sector is facing short-term pressure due to cautious consumer spending, but the long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected CAGR of 10%-15% from 2024 to 2027 [36] - The market penetration rate for medical aesthetics in China is currently at 4-5%, indicating a growth potential of 2-5 times compared to countries like the US and South Korea [36] - Key companies in the medical aesthetics sector include: - **Jinbo Biological**: Achieved revenue of 12.96 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.10% [45] Group 4: Daily Chemicals - The daily chemical industry is benefiting from domestic demand policies, with local brands poised to capture market share [49] - Companies such as **Dengkang Oral Care** and **Runben** are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [51][55] - **Shanghai Jahwa** has shown significant growth, with revenue reaching 49.61 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 10.83% increase [59] Group 5: Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is under pressure due to weak real estate sales, with a 15% decline in residential investment in 2025 [65] - National subsidies for home appliances and furnishings have provided some support, but the long-term effects are limited [65] - Leading companies such as **Oppein Home** and **Kuka Home** are noted for their strong channel capabilities and multi-category layouts [65]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 1.5% increase, reaching 4084 points, marking a nearly ten-year high with a consecutive thirteen-day rise[1] - The Wande All A Index rose by 1.59%, with a total trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan compared to the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.38%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.46%[1] Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflow was 2.879 billion HKD, lower than the previous day's inflow of 18.72 billion HKD[1] - Major inflows were seen in China Ping An and Alibaba, with net inflows of 1.84 billion HKD and 1.62 billion HKD respectively, while China Mobile and Tencent saw outflows of 875 million HKD and 804 million HKD[1] Bond Market Trends - The bond market continued to show weakness, with the 30-year government bond futures falling by 0.31% to 110.93 yuan, a new low since 2025[1] - The yields on 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds rose by 2.4 basis points, 2.2 basis points, and 2.6 basis points to 1.76%, 1.88%, and 2.31% respectively[4] Investment Sentiment - The implied volatility increased, indicating a rising FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment in the market, although the CSI 300 ETF IV index remains at a relatively low level[2] - The market is characterized by a bullish atmosphere, with traditional sectors like finance, consumption, and real estate performing well, alongside strong performances in technology and battery storage sectors[2] Commodity Market Insights - Precious metals led the commodity market, with silver rising by 7.06% and gold increasing by 1.27%[6] - The copper market showed strong performance due to supply constraints and inventory optimization, with significant price increases expected[8]

Group 1 - The communication industry is transitioning from a traditional pipeline support role to becoming a core engine that empowers new productive forces [3][13] - Global ICT investment has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3% from 2010 to 2020, and despite the pandemic, it maintained a CAGR of 6.7% in 2020 [5] - By 2023, the global ICT market investment is expected to reach approximately $4.9 trillion, with projections to grow to $6.6 trillion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 6.3% [5] Group 2 - The transition from 5G to 5G-A/6G is characterized by a shift from bandwidth growth to capability integration, emphasizing the importance of integrated sensing and computing [11][13] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on the large-scale deployment of 5G and the integration of computing networks, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" anticipates the emergence of AI-driven intelligent computing capabilities [14] - The deployment of low-orbit satellite internet constellations is breaking geographical limitations, enhancing communication capacity and reducing latency [18] Group 3 - The demand for computing power is becoming the main driver of growth in the ICT market, with the Chinese enterprise-level ICT market expected to reach approximately $751.76 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 6.5% [26] - The investment in enterprise-level servers and storage in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.3% from 2023 to 2028 [26] - AI model training is driving a significant increase in computing power demand, with the computational equivalent for training AI models increasing dramatically [30] Group 4 - The capital expenditure of major Chinese telecom operators is expected to continue increasing, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom projected to spend approximately ¥1,640 billion, ¥935.1 billion, and ¥613.7 billion respectively in 2024 [35] - The capital expenditure of these operators is shifting towards intelligent computing, with significant increases in their self-owned computing power [36] - The overseas cloud service providers are also increasing their capital expenditure, with a total of approximately $111.9 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 78.8% [36] Group 5 - The AI applications are expected to penetrate various sectors, with the emergence of AI-native applications and embodied intelligence reshaping interaction paradigms [65][67] - The market for humanoid robots is anticipated to grow significantly, with commercial applications expected to accelerate in both industrial and service sectors [73][76] - The integration of AI in industrial applications is addressing labor shortages and enhancing operational efficiency, with robots capable of replacing multiple skilled workers [81]

Market Overview - In December, the equity-like market transitioned from stability to volatility, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.30% for the month and 27.65% for the year[12] - The market experienced a significant rebound starting December 17, following a brief dip on December 16, indicating strong market resilience[12] Structural Risks and Fund Sentiment - Structural risks have notably eased, with the concentration of trading volume below historical high levels, dropping to 41% on December 16[25] - Positive fund sentiment was reflected in a net inflow of 806 billion CNY into stock ETFs in December, second only to April's 1,825 billion CNY[35] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have shown a significant upward trend, with the valuation center for bonds priced at 100 CNY rising by 2.40 percentage points to 35.77%[18] - The median price for convertible bonds is expected to remain in the 130-135 CNY range if the equity market maintains a strong oscillating pattern[4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a bullish mindset, as the market is currently in a low implied volatility state, similar to conditions seen in July[75] - Historical trends indicate that year-end rallies often face resistance at previous highs, but successful breakouts can lead to substantial gains, as seen in 2014 and 2020[76] Risks and Considerations - The primary risk for convertible bonds lies in the potential weakness of the equity market, which could exert dual pressure on valuations and underlying stocks[63] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring equity market trends and expectations, as a sustained downturn could negatively impact convertible bond inflows[62]

Group 1: Macro View on Consumer Discretionary - China's service consumption has significant growth potential compared to developed countries, with the consumer spending to GDP ratio projected at 39.93% in 2024, significantly lower than the US (67.93%) and Japan (55.50%) [5][6] - Since 2000, China's savings as a percentage of GDP have remained higher than those of developed nations, indicating a conservative consumer spending habit [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The US consumer structure has shifted from goods to services, with entertainment and dining services experiencing substantial growth. By 2024, the market sizes for entertainment services and dining services are expected to reach $777 billion and $14.29 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 149.47% and 186.81% since 2004 [12] - The trend of emotional consumption is rising, with 56.3% of youth willing to spend for emotional value, indicating a shift towards experiences and personal satisfaction in consumer behavior [42] Group 3: Recent Policy Interpretations - The implementation plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, focusing on new technologies and flexible manufacturing to meet diverse consumer needs [60][62] - Policies are being introduced to promote tourism and the silver economy, with the silver economy projected to reach approximately 2 trillion yuan in 2024, highlighting the growth potential in high-quality and premium services for the elderly [47][49] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The emotional consumption trend is expected to continue, with sectors like trendy toys, fashion jewelry, and health foods benefiting from this shift [42] - The AI application in commercial settings is accelerating, with various companies integrating AI into their operations to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [51] - Quality supermarkets are projected to perform well, with significant sales growth expected for major players like Walmart and local brands, indicating a strong demand for quality retail experiences [53][56]

Group 1 - The banking sector is expected to see a stabilization in net interest margins in 2026, driven by a peak in deposit re-pricing and a favorable loan rate environment [6][70][75] - The overall banking index increased by 7% in 2025, with H-shares and state-owned banks leading the gains, although the banking index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 11 percentage points [3][10][12] - Insurance capital has significantly increased its allocation to bank stocks, with a net increase of approximately 570 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong future demand for bank equities [4][23][26] Group 2 - The growth of interest-earning assets is a key stabilizer for bank performance, contributing to an 8%-11% increase in earnings, while the negative impact of interest margins has been narrowing [5][45] - The profitability of banks is improving, with a notable recovery in fee income and investment returns, which have become significant growth drivers [41][45] - The performance of city commercial banks and state-owned banks has been particularly strong, with city commercial banks showing the highest profit growth due to reduced credit impairment provisions [48][49] Group 3 - The report highlights a favorable outlook for bank stock investments, focusing on high dividend yields and growth potential, with specific banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank identified as beneficiaries [7] - Regulatory policies are evolving to enhance risk management and promote digital finance, which is expected to support the banking sector's stability and growth [51][54] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a weak recovery, with credit growth expected to slow down, impacting overall banking performance [6][63]