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传媒行业周报系列 2026 年第 2 周:腾讯推出AI小程序成长计划,监管启动外卖反垄断调查-20260111
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-11 12:52
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Tencent launched an AI mini-program growth plan to accelerate the implementation of AI applications within its ecosystem, providing developers with a year-long cloud development resource, free AI computing power, data analysis, traffic incentives, and better commercialization support [2][22] - The initiative aims to lower development barriers and encourage developers to quickly create and operate AI mini-programs within the WeChat ecosystem, enhancing user experience and driving growth in advertising, cloud services, and payment sectors [2][22] - Regulatory authorities have initiated an antitrust investigation into the food delivery industry, addressing issues of intense competition characterized by subsidies and traffic control, which have negatively impacted profits and merchant operations [3][23] - The intervention is expected to alleviate short-term profit pressures on platforms and shift competition focus towards delivery efficiency, merchant empowerment, and user experience, fostering a healthier industry development [3][23] - Current investment opportunities include leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry benefiting from policy incentives, and the film and cultural tourism sectors supported by consumer policies [6][23] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office for the week are "The Hidden Kill" with 54.525 million yuan (23.90% market share), "Avatar 3" with 47.237 million yuan (20.70%), and "The Legend of the Qin" with 45.543 million yuan (20.00%) [25][26] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Delta Force," while the top three Android games by popularity are "Heart Town," "Duck Duck Goose," and "Ghost Valley" [28][29] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcast index are "The Sun is Like Me" (82.9), "Carefree" (82.3), and "Tea Bone" (80.6) [31][32] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcast index of 75.7, followed by "Cosmic Sparkle Please Note" and "Voice of the Flowing Season" [33][34] - The top animation series is "Immortal Reversal" with a viewership index of 225.6, followed by "The Mortal Cultivation" and "Perfect World Animation" [35][36]
资负两端全面改善,保险迎开年行情
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-11 12:27
Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The insurance sector has shown significant improvement, with the Insurance II index rising by 19.5% and the Hong Kong Insurance index by 13.5% from December 4, 2025, to January 9, 2026 [1] - Major insurance companies have reported strong new business growth, with some top firms seeing over 70% year-on-year growth in new policies during the first three days of 2026 [2] - The overall premium income for life insurance from January to November 2025 increased by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the liability side of the business [2] - The decline in deposit rates and the scarcity of large-denomination time deposits are expected to drive more funds into insurance products, which offer relatively higher returns [2] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - China Pacific Insurance led A-share gains with a 32.1% increase, followed by New China Life at 25.4%, China Life at 12.5%, and others [1][8] - In H-shares, New China Life also led with a 30.9% increase, while China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance followed with 23.6% and 21.7% respectively [1][8] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The average Price to Embedded Value (PEV) for major A-share insurers ranges from 0.76 to 0.93, while H-share PEVs range from 0.54 to 0.76, indicating that valuations are still below historical averages [4] - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) growth for key companies, with China Ping An expected to reach an EPS of 8.08 in 2026, while China Pacific Insurance is projected at 4.80 [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for leading insurers due to improved fundamentals and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life [4]
中美加速,“十万星级”时刻来临
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-11 09:26
证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 中美加速,"十万星级"时刻来临! [Table_Title2] 计算机 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 中国在 2025 年 12 月向国际电信联盟(ITU)集中申请超 20 万颗低轨卫星的频率与轨道资源,申请规模显著高于 此前国内单一星座以"万星级"为上限的规划体量,我国在低轨资源布局上正由阶段性示范迈向长期、系统性容 量占位的新阶段。与之相对,SpaceX 在既有 Starlink 星座基础上,进一步新增约 7,500 颗卫星部署计划,延续 其通过持续扩容强化网络密度、系统冗余与服务能力的战略路径。两者在数量级与节奏上的同步变化,反映出全 球主要参与者已形成共识:低轨卫星竞争不再局限于单一星座或阶段性建设,而是围绕轨道与频谱资源、工程化 交付能力及长期运营能力展开的综合博弈。 核心观点: ► 低轨卫星正式迈入"超大规模星座"竞争阶段,全球话语权争夺加速 中国新增 20 万颗卫星频轨资源的申请,标志着卫星资源申请已上升到国家战略层面。轨道和频率均是不可再生且 高度稀 ...
投资策略周报:把握做多窗口,牛市行情或将继续推进-20260111
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-11 09:07
Market Review - The A-share market started strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a record 16 consecutive days of gains, reflecting a rising market risk appetite, with growth and small-cap styles outperforming [2][3] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, with margin trading activity also high, as the margin balance surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [2][4] - Key sectors such as commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, brain-computer interfaces, and nuclear fusion have shown significant performance, alongside rising prices in related commodities like non-ferrous metals [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the bull market may continue, with the A-share market entering a spring buying window, supported by better-than-expected PMI and inflation data from December [3][5] - The influx of external funds and increased willingness of market participants to invest are expected to sustain market momentum, with notable inflows from financing and foreign capital [4][5] - The report highlights the importance of upcoming events in the tech sector, particularly around the Spring Festival, which could further enhance market risk appetite [3][5] Sector Allocation - Focus on the expansion of themes in the technology sector, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, robotics, domestic substitution, and nuclear fusion [5] - Beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" trend and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, are also highlighted as areas of interest [5]
流动性跟踪:税期未至,资金面依然平稳
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-10 14:55
[Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 10 日 证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Title] 税期未至,资金面依然平稳 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况:年初,资金面如期转松 1 月 5-9 日,跨年后,尽管月初央行大额回笼跨年资金投放,但在财政支出的 作用下,资金利率自发回归低位。周一周二 R001 稳定在 1.33%附近,然而随着连 续回笼造成的流动性缺口压力不断集聚,资金利率自周中开始缓步上行。即便周四 周五回笼压力缓释,央行操作转向净投放(分别净投放 99、340 亿元),但上行趋 势依旧未改,于周五升至 1.35%,不过整体仍运行于 OMO利率下方。7天资金利率 走势与之分化,周一至周三 R007 由 1.45%连续升至 1.53%后,随着买断式逆回购 等额续作落地,利率重回下行通道,周五收于 1.52%。 ►展望:税期扰动之前,资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松 展望下周(1月 12-16日),资金常规占用水平降至低位,税期的影响预计在16 日(周五)之后逐步显现。在此之前,资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松,隔夜利率 围绕 1.35%附近波 ...
地产周速达:节后新房成交季节性回落,二手房平稳
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-10 14:53
证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Title] 节后新房成交季节性回落,二手房平稳 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 10 日 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 注:考虑到元旦假期成交低于周末假期,本周(1 月 2-8 日)统计中,假期(2-3 日)数据采用工作日(4- 8 日)日均成交值的 50%进行估算调整。 1)周度:新房成交显著回落 新房市场年末冲量后显著回落。受 2025 年末房企集中冲量导致的高基数效应消退影响,本周一线城市新 房成交环比大幅回落 62%,当前成交规模仅为 2025 年周度高点的 36%。分城市来看,四大一线城市成交环比 均现深度调整:北京、上海环比分别回落 57%和 56%,广州、深圳降幅更为显著,分别下滑 70%和 78%。同 比维度,新房市场延续负增长,北京同比下滑59%降幅最大,深圳(-56%)、广州(-39%)、上海(-30%)紧 随其后。 二手房市场整体环比降温,而深圳二手房逆势回升。京沪深三城本周二手房合计成交环比下滑 26%,约 为 2025 年成交高点的 68%。城市间表现呈现分化,其中深圳二手房表现亮眼, ...
非农平淡,Fed6月才降息的“小心思”
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-10 13:31
证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 非农平淡,Fed 6 月才降息的"小心思" 1 月 9 日,美国劳工部公布 25 年 12 月非农数据,非农就业人数增加 5 万人,预估增 7 万人,10-11 月合计 下修 7.6 万人。失业率 4.4%,市场预期 4.5%,前值也下修至 4.5%。时薪环比 0.33%,略快于前月的 0.24%。 本次非农数据并未改变既有"低裁员-低招聘"的模式,对市场影响不大。非农数据发布后的 15 分钟内,美 元小幅走弱约 0.1%,黄金上涨不到 0.3%,2 年期美债收益率上行 1bp 至 3.51%(其后上行至 3.53%或因密歇 根消费者信心超预期),10 年和 30 年收益率变化不大。 重点关注以下三点,第一,如何理解失业率下行?家庭调查与企业调查数据存在差别。失业率数据对应的 家庭调查统计 12 月就业人数增加了 23.2 万,对比企业调查数据就业仅增 5 万。12 月家庭调查统计的失业人数 下降了 27.8 万,4.6 万人退出劳动力市场。对应失业率下降 0.16%,劳动参与率下降 0.06% ...
估值周报:最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看?-20260110
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-10 08:29
Group 1: A-Share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 17.14, with a median of 13.55 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.76, while the CSI 300 is at 13.70[9] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 48.59, with a maximum of 137.86[12] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.99, with a median of 10.32 and a maximum of 22.67[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.43, with a maximum of 65.18[61] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.55, with a maximum of 29.92[63] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.55, with a median of 21.17 and a maximum of 41.99[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 41.86, with a maximum of 75.53[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE (TTM) of 30.67, with a maximum of 34.70[93] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors have low PE ratios, indicating potential undervaluation[23] - The computer and electronics sectors are at historically high PE ratios, suggesting overvaluation[23] - The pharmaceutical and construction sectors show low PB ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities[23]
年末通胀加速回升,什么信号?
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-09 12:05
Inflation Data Summary - December 2025 CPI year-on-year increased to 0.8%, matching expectations and up from 0.7% in the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, a significant improvement from -0.1% in the prior month, marking the largest increase for December since 2021[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[1] Core CPI Analysis - Core CPI has shown resilience, supported mainly by industrial consumer goods, maintaining a 1.2% increase for four consecutive months[2] - Prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] - Notable contributors include household appliances (1.4% increase), other goods and services (2.8% increase), and communication tools (3.0% increase) in December[2] Food Price Trends - Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to the CPI, slightly above the 2021-2024 average of 0.1%[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw significant increases of 0.8% and 2.6%, respectively, while pork prices continued to decline by 1.2%[3] - As of January 8, 2026, pork wholesale prices have risen by 1.9% compared to December 2025, indicating potential stabilization[3] Housing and Energy Impact - Housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, negatively impacting CPI due to its high weight of approximately 22%[4] - Fuel prices for transportation fell by 1.1%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point decrease in CPI[4] PPI Insights - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in industrial prices after a low period[4] - The mining sector saw a 0.8% increase, while raw materials rose by 0.6%, marking a 19-month high[5] - The overall PPI remains under pressure from declining oil prices, with the oil and gas extraction sector experiencing a 1.3% drop[6] Market Implications - Current inflation levels are moderate, suggesting no immediate constraints on "loose monetary policy" but limiting the downward space for long-term interest rates[8] - Industrial price recovery is a positive signal for improving profit expectations, although a broad-based price increase has not yet materialized[8] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected adjustments in monetary policy could arise from economic slowdowns or changes in overseas monetary policies[9] - Liquidity may also experience unexpected changes if domestic economic data continues to exceed expectations[9]
AI浪潮之基,电力价值与生态重塑
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-08 02:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook on the power equipment sector, driven by the rapid development of AIDC and ongoing investments in grid construction [3]. Core Insights - The power system is expected to undergo a value and ecological transformation due to the surge in computing power demand driven by AI technology and applications [3]. - The report identifies two main demand drivers (increased electricity demand and enhanced power quality requirements) and three key sectors (generation, grid, and user) that will reshape the power system's value and ecology [3]. - The demand for gas turbines and energy storage solutions is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of data centers and the need for reliable power supply [3]. - The global grid construction demand is increasing, particularly in regions with aging infrastructure, leading to heightened investment from utility companies [3]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong channel resources and technological advantages in capitalizing on these trends [3]. Summary by Sections AI Applications and Power System Transformation - The rapid development of AI applications is reshaping the value of the power system, with significant implications for electricity demand and supply efficiency [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the need for technological upgrades in power supply systems to meet the increasing demands of AI-driven applications [3]. Generation Side: Increased Electricity Demand - The global electricity demand from data centers is projected to reach 415 TWh in 2024 and 945 TWh by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 15% [16]. - The report notes that the demand for gas turbines is rising as data centers explore on-site generation solutions to enhance energy efficiency and supply resilience [22][23]. - Companies like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are experiencing a surge in gas turbine orders, indicating a robust market outlook [27][71]. Grid Side: Growing Construction Demand - Aging power grids in developed economies are under pressure, necessitating increased investment in infrastructure upgrades [54][56]. - The U.S. is launching initiatives to accelerate grid infrastructure projects to meet rising electricity demands driven by AI [58]. - European utility companies are also ramping up investments in grid infrastructure to address similar challenges [65]. User Side: Power Supply Technology Evolution - The report highlights a shift towards high-voltage and direct current (DC) power supply systems in data centers to accommodate rising power demands [81][90]. - Major tech companies are transitioning to DC power distribution systems to improve efficiency and support higher power densities [100][104].