Export Performance - In November 2025, total exports reached $330.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0% and reversing the previous month's decline of -1.1%[1] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America improved significantly, contributing 1.9 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points, and 1.0 percentage points to overall export growth, respectively[1] - Exports to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, saw a marginal slowdown, with year-on-year growth decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 8.6%, marking the first single-digit growth since February of the same year[1] Trade with the United States - Exports to the U.S. fell by 3.2% month-on-month in November, with a year-on-year decline of 28.8%, the lowest in three months, remaining within the -25% to -30% range[2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. was influenced by high base effects from last year, where exports peaked at $47.3 billion in November 2024 due to anticipatory stockpiling ahead of tariff increases[2] Product Categories - The export growth rate for electromechanical products and high-tech products improved, with electromechanical exports rising by 9.8% and high-tech products by 7.8%, both nearing the average levels seen in the first nine months of the year[3] - Labor-intensive product exports saw a reduced decline from -14.8% to -8.2%, although this remains low compared to the average decline of around 5% in August and September[3] Import Trends - Total imports in November amounted to $218.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, slightly above the previous month's 1.0%[4] - Imports of electromechanical and high-tech products improved, contributing 5.5 percentage points to overall import growth, while bulk commodity imports turned negative, declining by 1.0% year-on-year[5] Regional Economic Performance - Neighboring economies also showed strong export performance, with South Korea's exports rising by 8.4% year-on-year in November, up from 3.6% in October[6] - Vietnam's exports experienced a slight slowdown to 15.8% year-on-year but maintained double-digit growth[6] Future Outlook - Despite high base effects, November's export performance is expected to support a rebound in industrial value-added growth year-on-year[7] - The resilience of exports is anticipated to continue, bolstered by competitive pricing of manufactured goods, although fluctuations may occur in the coming months due to previous stockpiling effects[7]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 8 日 [Table_Title] 第一量子 2025Q3 铜产量同比减少 9.9%至 10.46 万 吨，销量同比增加 6.0%至 11.88 万吨，归属于公 司股东的净利润为-4800 万美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 公司 2025Q3 铜产量为 10.46 万吨，同比减少 9.9%，环比增长 14.9%。 2025Q3 净实现金价为 3358 美元/盎司，同比上涨 40.9%，环比 上涨 6.1%。 ►财务业绩情况 2025Q3 销售收入为 13.46 亿美元，同比增长 5.2%，环比增长 9.8%。 公司 2025Q3 铜销量为 11.88 万吨，同比增加 6.0%，环比增加 17.4%。 2025Q3 铜 C1 现金成本为 1.95 美元/磅，同比上涨 24.2%，环 比下跌 2.5%。 2025Q3 铜总维持成本（AISC）为 3.07 美元/磅，同比上涨 26.9%，环比下跌 6.4%。 2025Q3 铜生产总成本为 3 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 08 日 第三，存量和增量。本次会议两个地方提到"存量和增量"，一是继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松 的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应；二是持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。这说明 26 年政策兼顾存量和增量，要将资源从低效存量转移出来以优化结构，而并非单纯在增量政策上发力做大总 量。与此同时，扩内需同样注重盘活存量。发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，切实提升宏观经济治理效能，也 与注重质效、跨周期调节相呼应。此外，货币适度宽松和财政更加积极的修饰词并无变化，关注中央经济工作会 议的详细表述。 第四，持续扩大内需，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。本次会议再次提到"国际经贸斗争"，而今 年 7 月会议时未曾提及相关表述，当时正值中美经贸关系缓和期。当前中美经贸关系仍然处于缓和期，重提"国 际经贸斗争"，如何理解？在今年一季度美国加征关税之后，4 月政治局会议首次提出"国际经贸斗争"这一重 大判断。尽管当前中美经贸关系已经明显缓和，但部分欧洲、亚洲国家（如荷兰、日本等）在经贸等领域时有挑 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 8 日 [Table_Title] 嘉能可 2025Q3 公司自有铜产量同比减少 1%至 23.96 万吨，自有钴产量同比减少 9%至 0.96 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 2025Q3 生产经营情况 2025Q3 自有铜产量 23.96 万吨，同比减少 1%，环比增加 36%。2025Q3 自有铜产量环比增长 63,600 吨（增幅 36%）， 主要源于 KCC（21,700 吨）、Antapaccay（16,800 吨）和 Antamina（11,800 吨）矿区随计划采矿顺序推进实现品位提 升。 2025Q3 自有钴产量为 0.96 万吨，同比减少 9%，环比增加 2%。 2025Q3 自有锌产量为 24.42 万吨，同比增加 8%，环比减少 3%。 2025Q3 自有铅产量为 4.18 万吨，同比减少 13%，环比增加 2%。 2025Q3 自有镍产量为 1.58 万吨，同比减少 13%，环比减少 11%。 2025Q3 自有金产量为 14.7 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Freeport's copper production decreased by 5.2% quarter-on-quarter to 413,700 tons, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1% due to a mud leak incident at PTFI and declining ore grades [2][3] - The average realized price for copper in Q3 2025 was $4.68 per pound, reflecting an increase of 8.8% year-on-year and 3.1% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average unit net cash cost for copper was $1.40 per pound, up 0.7% year-on-year and 23.9% quarter-on-quarter, but below the guidance of $1.59 per pound in July 2025 [3][4] - Gold production in Q3 2025 was 287,000 ounces, down 37.1% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the same mud leak incident [7] - Molybdenum production in Q3 2025 was 22 million pounds, a decrease of 32.5% year-on-year, while the average realized price increased by 5.2% year-on-year to $24.07 per pound [8] Summary by Sections Production and Sales - Q3 2025 copper production was 912 million pounds, with sales of 977 million pounds, both showing declines compared to the previous year [14] - Q3 2025 gold sales were 336,000 ounces, down 39.8% year-on-year [14] - Q3 2025 molybdenum sales were 19 million pounds, remaining stable year-on-year [14] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $6.972 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [15] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $1.972 billion, up 1.8% year-on-year [15] - Net income attributable to common stock was $674 million, with earnings per share of $0.46, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [15] Future Outlook - For 2025, total expected sales are approximately 3.5 billion pounds of copper, 1.05 million ounces of gold, and 82 million pounds of molybdenum, with a significant portion of production expected to ramp up in late 2025 and 2026 [9][10] - The Grasberg mine is set to resume large-scale production in Q2 2026, with anticipated copper and gold production levels expected to match 2025 estimates [13]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying trend strength through moving average strategies, which can help in recognizing market trends effectively [3][4][9] - It introduces three key moving average indicators: moving average arrangement score, moving average dispersion distance, and moving average time series change, which collectively help in assessing market trends [8][10][13] - The report suggests that a higher composite score indicates a stronger upward trend, while a lower score suggests a stronger downward trend [13][21] Group 2 - The report outlines a funding flow strategy that aggregates various funding flow indicators to identify market consensus, focusing on both institutional and retail investor behaviors [26][28] - It highlights the significance of funding flow volatility over mere funding direction, suggesting that stable funding behavior can indicate potential market reversals [31][41] - The report proposes a combined approach of trend strength and funding consensus to select indices with clear trends and stable funding, enhancing investment decision-making [42][39] Group 3 - The report presents historical performance data for industry rotation and ETF rotation strategies, showing annual returns and excess returns compared to equal-weighted benchmarks [50][52] - It indicates that the industry rotation strategy has shown significant excess returns in certain years, particularly in 2020 with a return of 76.84% [50] - The ETF rotation strategy also demonstrated strong performance in 2019 and 2020, with excess returns of 30.33% and 26.62% respectively [52]

[Table_Title] 12 月债市，乍暖还寒 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ► 11 月债市，风浪再起 回顾 11 月债市，长端利率经历了短期筑底回升的过程。 10 年国债收益率起步于 1.80%，月末收于 1.84%，12 月初再 遇调整，高点达到1.87%。从市场定价内容来看，随着股市行 情进入上涨后的休整阶段，11 月风险偏好对于债市的扰动明 显减弱；经济的弱现实与低于预期的宽货币，令债市多空力量 均衡，陷入低波状态；最后则是基金销售新规迟迟未能落地， 其中的不确定性或成为机构避险的理由。 ►年末季节性下行，或在今年弱化 复盘过往五年的 12 月债市表现，长端利率多经历下行行 情，虽然背后的直接理由各不相同，但或许可以总结为四个共 同的底层逻辑，市场基于经济年末冲刺或年初开门红的"宽货 币"预期、交易盘的冲刺需求、配置盘的抢跑行为、央行年末 惯例的维稳倾向。规律能否重现，我们可以从以上四个变量 着手，进行预判。 2025 年 12 月债市面临的状况或是，央行鹰派态度下，机 构对于年末降息的一致预期或难凝聚；交易盘缺乏稳定负债， 年末进行业绩冲刺的能力及意愿 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 8 日 [Table_Title] 信用债 ETF 规模升至 5000 亿+ 截至 12 月 5 日，信用债 ETF 最新规模为 5022 亿元，相较 11 月 28 日小幅增长 26 亿元。其中，嘉实科创债 ETF 规模增长 31 亿元至 240 亿元，贡献最大，增幅 15%，是目前科创债 ETF 存量规模最高的产品。景顺科创 债 ETF 增幅最大（28%），规模增至 36 亿元。其他信用债 ETF 产品规模变动幅度均较小。 观察 PCF 持仓券加权久期，24 只科创债 ETF 久期中位数为 3.5 年。多数信用债 ETF 久期继续小幅下降， 仅有少数产品拉升久期，其中易方达科创债 ETF 最近一周久期增长 0.3 年至 3.3 年，增幅最大，不过该产品久期 在科创债 ETF 中仍处偏低水平。基准做市信用债 ETF 久期基本持平前一周，依然在 2.8 年-3.9 年之间，周变动 不超过 0.05 年。 本周科创债 ETF 成分券成交笔数/信用债成交笔数为 6%，较前一周小幅上升，不过依然是 10 月以来的低位 状态，买入力量仍有限 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 周专题：全球首款全景无人机影石影翎 A1 正 式上市 [Table_Title2] 家电行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 周专题：全球首款全景无人机影翎 A1 正式上市 12 月 4 日晚，全球首款全景无人机影翎 Antigravity AI 正 式上市。 产品简介：1）售价：目前 3 种套装可选，全景飞行标准套 装 6799 元、探索套装 7999 元、长续航套装 8499 元，套装均 标配 A1 无人机、Vision 飞行眼镜与 Grip 体感遥控器；2） 基本参数：整机重量 249g，多数国家或地区可随心起飞，采 用 8K 全景拍摄，可拆换镜头设计；标准电池续航时间 24min，配备长续航电池可达 39min；采用 OmniLink 360 全 景图传技术，FCC 标准最远可达 10 公里图传，在中国大陆执 行的 SRRC 标准下，最远距离达 8 公里。 主要功能：1）飞行眼镜：Vision 飞行眼镜搭载 Pancake 光 学系统和 1 英寸 Micro-OLED 显示屏，单 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 强稀缺属性，受益于流动性改善与 IPO 加速 [Table_Title2] 香港交易所（0388.HK） [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 2025 年前三季度，公司实现收入及其他收益 218.51 亿港 元，同比+36.63%，其中 Q3 单季同比+44.73%至 77.75 亿港元； 实现归母净利润 134.19 亿港元，同比+44.8%，其中 Q3 单季利润 创历史新高，同比+55.80%至 49 亿港元。 ► 南向交易占比持续提升，成为港股市场活跃度核心驱 动力。 南向交易日均成交额占中国香港现货市场整体成交额的比重 呈现持续上升趋势，从 2019 年的 12%显著提升至 2025 年第三季 度的 53%，成为推动港股交投活跃的重要力量。2025 年前三季 度，港股通 ADT 同比大幅增长 229%至 1,259 亿港元，贡献了现货 市场 ADT 近半份额。这一结构性变化主要源于两方面因素：一方 面，港股市场中低估值、高分红资产对中国内地险资、公募等追 求绝对收益的资金 ...