Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In early 2026, the market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and the market has risen strongly. However, the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may not be high. Thematic investment remains popular, and funds from previously over - heated themes are expected to shift to other thematic sectors [1][7]. - The technology main line is still the market consensus. Funds are likely to flow into sectors such as semiconductor computing power and robotics within the technology sector, while lithium battery, non - ferrous metals, power grid, chemical, and innovative drugs are important supplementary sectors for the market [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Which theme ETFs are expected to be the direction of capital return? - **Market situation**: In early 2026, the market has risen strongly, with commercial aerospace, AI applications, and non - ferrous metals becoming the focus. But there are signs of the market correcting irrational behaviors under regulatory guidance, and the risk - return ratio of chasing the rising market may be low. Thematic investment is still very popular. As of January 19, 2026, the cumulative net capital inflow of thematic index ETFs in the past five days exceeded 42.254 billion yuan, while industry index ETFs only had a net inflow of 9.763 billion yuan, and broad - based index ETFs showed a large net outflow [1][7]. - **Analysis from the perspective of rise and valuation**: Technological industries generally have high rises, while traditional cyclical industries such as liquor, coal, and breeding have relatively low rises. New energy sectors like lithium battery, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicles, as well as the chemical industry, have risen but still have room to reach previous highs. From the valuation dimension, the current valuations of the game, intelligent driving, lithium battery, and breeding sectors are low [8]. - **Analysis using the quadrant chart**: - **First quadrant (high rise and high congestion)**: Mainly includes commercial aerospace, communication, AI, and non - ferrous metals. Non - ferrous metals (such as copper) and AI have relatively moderate congestion, and relevant sectors are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - **Second quadrant (high rise and low congestion)**: There are relatively few relevant industries, mainly semiconductor equipment (including related industrial chains such as storage) and lithium battery. The sector sentiment is not over - heated, and the industrial supply - demand pattern is optimized, so they are still worthy of attention [2][17]. - **Third quadrant (low rise and low congestion)**: Sectors such as innovative drugs, chemicals, and games have both industrial logic and market capacity, with large potential for a supplementary rise. For example, since 2026, the chemical ETF has re - entered the state of net inflow [2][17]. - **Fourth quadrant (low rise and high congestion)**: Includes robotics, power grid equipment, consumer electronics, and software. Power grid equipment has received renewed attention due to the unexpected increase in the 14th Five - Year Plan expenditure, and robotics has also been favored by the market because Tesla's third - generation robot has entered the scheme confirmation stage [2][21]. - **Specific ETF selection**: For ETFs tracking the same index, products with larger scale, relatively lower fees, and smaller tracking errors are selected. Specific ETF lists are provided in the report [22].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, which was below the expected 1.5%. The total retail sales for the year 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with specific categories such as furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry showing growth rates of 14.6%, 17.3%, 5.1%, and 12.8% respectively [1][2] - The real estate sector faced significant challenges, with new housing starts, completed areas, sales areas, and investment in residential development all declining year-on-year by 18.8%, 20.6%, 18.9%, and 36.5% respectively in December 2025 [2][3] Summary by Category Home Furnishing - The home furnishing industry is expected to stabilize due to dual support from policies and the economy. The real estate market is showing signs of gradual recovery, which is anticipated to improve the demand for home furnishings [2] - The implementation of trade-in subsidies for durable consumer goods starting in Q4 2024 is expected to significantly activate consumer demand for home furnishings [2] Cosmetics - The cosmetics industry is experiencing steady recovery, with retail sales reaching 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. December sales alone were 38 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year growth [3][6] - The demand for cosmetics is shifting towards quality, efficacy, and brand value, with consumers willing to pay a premium for high-end skincare and professional makeup products [3][6] Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector saw retail sales of 373.6 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. In December, sales were 32.8 billion yuan, with a 5.9% year-on-year growth [7] - Despite pressure on sales volumes due to rising gold prices, the increase in prices has positively impacted retail sales, indicating a potential for continued growth in the market [7] Investment Recommendations - For home furnishing, focus on leading companies with strong channel capabilities and diversified product lines, such as Oppein Home and Kuka Home. Also, consider companies like Sensun Holdings that are expected to benefit from the recovery in the North American real estate market [8] - In the cosmetics sector, pay attention to high-end brands with Eastern cultural characteristics, such as Mao Geping and Lin Qingxuan, as well as companies like Marubi and Dengkang Oral that show clear improvement trends [8] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies with high brand premium capabilities and differentiated pricing models, such as Laopu Gold, are recommended due to the ongoing upward trend in gold prices [8]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 第一量子 2025Q4 铜产量同比减少 8.1%至 39.6 万 吨，2026 年铜产量指引为 37.5-43.5 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 19 日 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 第一量子 2025 年实现铜产量 39.6 万吨，同比减少 8.1%，但仍 处于修订后的铜产量指导区间（39 万至 41 万吨）之内。 2025Q4 铜产量为 10.1 万吨，环比减少 3.8%，同比减少 9.8%。全年铜产量受 Sentinel 矿品位下降影响，但堪萨斯铜矿 的强劲表现部分抵消了这一影响——该矿受益于 S3 矿段投 产。 Kansanshi 铜矿全年产量达 18.1 万吨，较 2024 年增加 1 万吨， 其中 S3 矿段贡献 2.5 万吨产量，该矿段于 2025 年 8 月实现首 次精矿生产。该厂磨矿率和运行时间均超过设计产能的 80%， 平均回收率超过 80%，标志着项目取得重大里程碑。由于持续 稳定的运营，S3 于 2025 年 1 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The pork price is rising due to the peak consumption season, and there is an expectation for accelerated destocking after the holiday [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization and the commercialization of genetically modified crops to enhance yield and self-sufficiency [1][11] - The report highlights the profitability recovery in pig farming, with self-breeding and purchased piglets turning profitable, indicating a short-term challenge for capacity destocking [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is supporting Shandong Province in enhancing grain production and agricultural modernization, focusing on rural revitalization and technological innovation [1][11] - Key recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.72 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.26%. The number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, showing a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including stocks like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2359.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26% [24] - Wheat: The average price is 2513.57 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [27] - Soybeans: The average price is 4053.16 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.12% [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15640.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [43]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The pork price is rising due to the peak consumption season, and there is an expectation for accelerated destocking after the holiday [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization and the commercialization of genetically modified crops to enhance yield and self-sufficiency [1][11] - The report highlights the profitability recovery in pig farming, with self-breeding and purchased piglets turning profitable, indicating a short-term challenge for capacity destocking [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is supporting Shandong province in enhancing grain production and agricultural modernization, focusing on technology and innovation [1][11] - Key recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on genetically modified seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.72 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.26% [2][12] - The number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, showing a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in production capacity [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine sector include Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and others, with a focus on companies that show significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity [2][12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% aims to cool down excessive leverage and maintain market stability. This change will take effect on January 19, 2026, and applies only to new financing contracts [3][4][15][7] - As of January 14, 2026, the total market financing balance reached a historical high of 2.68 trillion yuan, with the margin balance accounting for 2.59% of the A-share market capitalization, indicating an increase from the average level of 2.40% in 2025 [4][15] - The non-bank financial sector index fell by 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points, ranking 26th among all primary industries. The securities sector decreased by 2.21%, while the financial technology sector increased by 1.34% [2][13] Summary by Sections Market and Sector Performance - The average daily trading volume of A-shares for the week of January 11-17, 2026, was 34.651 billion yuan, a 21.5% increase week-on-week and a 189.4% increase year-on-year. The average trading volume for the first quarter of 2026 is 31.585 billion yuan, up 107.7% from the same period in 2025 [19] - In the same week, three new stocks were issued, raising 2.025 billion yuan, while two new stocks were listed, raising 1.484 billion yuan. Year-to-date, three A-share IPOs have raised 3.039 billion yuan [19] Financing Margin Ratio Adjustment - The financing margin ratio adjustment is a regulatory measure to prevent systemic risks and protect investors' rights. The increase in the minimum margin requirement is intended to curb market overheating and ensure a smooth market transition [4][7][15] Regulatory Developments - The National Financial Supervision Administration held a regulatory work meeting on January 15, 2026, outlining five key tasks for the year, including risk resolution for small and medium-sized financial institutions and enhancing regulatory quality. The focus for 2026 is on preventing systemic risks and ensuring high-quality industry development [8][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of credit - bond ETFs has declined for two consecutive weeks, dropping by 14.2 billion yuan to 541.9 billion yuan on January 16 compared to January 9. After the "first rise then fall" since mid - December, the current scale has basically returned to that of one month ago (December 19) [1] - Most credit - bond ETFs saw a decline or remained flat in scale compared to last week, with corresponding bond holdings being reduced. The reduction mainly targeted bonds with a 2 - 3 - year term [2] - The trading activity of credit - bond ETFs has weakened for two consecutive weeks. The recovery of trading activity depends on whether the scale of credit - bond ETFs can stabilize [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Scale of Credit - bond ETFs - On January 16, the total scale of 35 credit - bond ETFs was 541.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.2 billion yuan compared to January 9 [6] - Compared with December 19, the scales of Silver Hua Kechuang Bond ETF, Ping An Corporate Bond ETF, Industrial Bank Kechuang Bond ETF, and Huatai - PineBridge Kechuang Bond ETF increased by more than 3.5 billion yuan, with an increase rate of over 20% [1] 3.2 Duration and Yield - On January 16, the durations of most credit - bond ETFs remained basically the same as on January 9, and the static portfolio yields were also stable. Only Tianhong Kechuang Bond ETF significantly reduced its duration by 0.68 years to 2.34 years, with the corresponding portfolio yield decreasing by 7bp to 1.81%. Currently, its duration is only slightly higher than that of Yongying (2.2 years) and is the second - lowest among 24 Kechuang Bond ETFs [1] - The durations of current Kechuang Bond ETFs are between 2.2 - 3.9 years, and those of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs are between 2.7 - 3.7 years [1] 3.3 Bond Holdings Adjustment - Most credit - bond ETFs reduced their bond holdings. The reduction mainly targeted bonds with a 2 - 3 - year term, continuing the pattern of last week [2] - Kechuang Bond ETFs mainly reduced their holdings in the energy, securities, and public utilities sectors, with a large proportion of AAA central - state - owned enterprise bonds. Benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs reduced their holdings in the pharmaceutical, transportation, construction, and urban investment sectors [2] 3.4 Trading Activity - The trading activity has weakened for two consecutive weeks. On January 16, the number of trading transactions of Kechuang Bond ETF component bonds accounted for only 5.0% of that of credit bonds, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to last week [2][15] - The median spread between "non - component bonds and component bonds" of Kechuang Bond ETFs has also narrowed for two consecutive weeks. On January 16, the median spread dropped to 5.2bp, a narrowing of 1.3bp compared to January 9 [2]

Economic Outlook - December economic data shows improvement, with exports increasing by 6.6% YoY, surpassing expectations of 2.2%[21] - The market anticipates Q4 GDP growth in the range of 4.4-4.5% YoY, indicating potential economic resilience[21] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in January-February has decreased due to improved economic indicators[21] Market Sentiment - Recent adjustments in margin requirements by exchanges aim to curb speculative behavior in the stock market, leading to a clearer slow-bull market pattern[24] - Risk appetite in the market has declined, impacting sentiment towards the bond market[24] Funding and Supply Dynamics - The banking system's net lending dropped from 5.55 trillion yuan to 4.44 trillion yuan during the tax period, causing short-term funding rates to rise[25] - The upcoming local government bond issuance remains uncertain, with 13 provinces yet to announce specific plans, potentially affecting market supply dynamics[26] Institutional Behavior - Large banks have increased purchases of 5-10 year government bonds, with net buying of 2.25 trillion yuan in January, indicating a shift in investment strategy[28] - The duration of bond funds remains low, with the average duration for rate-sensitive bond funds at 3.59 years, suggesting limited risk of significant market adjustments[31] Investment Strategy - The bond market is currently characterized by limited opportunities but manageable risks, making it suitable for gradual entry by institutional investors[32] - Trading institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on observing market developments before making significant moves[32]

Group 1 - The equity market experienced a return to rationality, with the Wande All A index closing at 6770.79 on January 16, 2026, reflecting a 0.49% increase from January 9, while the China Convertible Bond index rose by 1.08% during the same period [1][9] - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% by the exchanges on January 14 indicates a regulatory intent to guide orderly market operations, which may help reduce potential volatility in the medium to long term [12][16] - The market sentiment has gradually returned to rationality, with implied volatility significantly decreasing and the focus shifting back to mainline sectors such as semiconductors and non-ferrous metals [19][20] Group 2 - Despite a cooling of speculative sentiment, a bull market remains a consensus, with the Wande All A index fluctuating around the 5-day moving average and staying above the 10-day moving average, indicating a healthy slow bull market [39][41] - The performance of the pre-increase index continued to rise while the pre-loss index saw a significant decline from January 14 to 16, suggesting that high-performance and high-elasticity sectors are likely to become key market themes [43][44] - The electronic sector is identified as a potential next rotation point, with significant gains observed in power semiconductors and semiconductor equipment during the same period [48] Group 3 - Convertible bond valuations have significantly stretched, with the valuation center for bonds at a parity of 80 yuan reaching 54.59% as of January 16, 2026, indicating that the market has priced in a considerable amount of linear extrapolation of the underlying stock's continued rise [25][28] - The historical valuation percentiles for convertible bonds have reached extreme levels, with most price levels showing valuations at historical highs, suggesting a potential risk of valuation compression if the underlying stocks enter a phase of fluctuation [28][60] - The upcoming decisions regarding strong redemption for convertible bonds are concentrated, with a significant number of bonds facing redemption choices in January, which could impact market dynamics [63][64]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming release of the T-chain and Optimus V3 humanoid robots, indicating a potential acceleration in mass production driven by cost reduction needs and domestic suppliers' advantages in precision components and electronic skin [1][14] - The report anticipates a 28.2% year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales by 2025, with a penetration rate expected to reach 47.9% [2][17] - The development of commercial aerospace is accelerating, presenting new opportunities for space photovoltaics, with significant cost implications for satellite power systems [3][24] - The UK AR7 auction results indicate a significant increase in offshore wind power capacity, providing greater overseas market opportunities for domestic wind power companies [6][25] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid development, with major tech companies entering the market and a focus on domestic suppliers for key components [1][14] - Companies like Zhejiang Rongtai and others are expected to benefit from the growing demand for humanoid robots and their components [1][16] New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 1,662.6 million units in 2025, with a significant increase in market penetration [2][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and cost optimizations in sustaining growth in the new energy vehicle sector [2][19] New Energy - The report notes the potential for space photovoltaics to create new growth opportunities within the photovoltaic industry, particularly with advancements in technology [3][24] - Companies with relevant product and equipment layouts are expected to benefit from the growth in space photovoltaic applications [3][24] Power Equipment & AIDC - TSMC's capital expenditure plan for 2026 is projected to reach $56 billion, reflecting strong demand in AI and overseas power equipment markets [7][42] - The report anticipates a significant increase in investment in the power grid, with a projected total of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8][43]