新房市场延续筑底态势，成交再度小幅回落。经历了元旦后首周的季节性大幅回调及上周的短暂止跌后， 本周新房市场再度转弱。本周 38城新房成交面积录得 186万平，环比小幅下滑 7%，绝对量基本回落至元旦后 首周水平，且明显低于 12 月的 263 万-524 万平。同比维度上，本周新房成交下滑 38%，跌幅与元旦后首周相 当，且高于 12 月全月 24%的降幅。新房成交已连续十七周同比负增长，显示市场筑底过程仍在延续。 2）一线城市表现：二手房同比增幅也实现转正 一线城市二手房连续两周高增，同比增幅也实现转正。京沪深三城本周二手房合计成交环比增长 10%， 虽较上周 18%的增幅有所收窄，但绝对量已恢复至 2025年成交高点的 89%，且周成交量（102万平）超出 12 月 94 万平的周均水平。城市间表现呈现显著分化特征，其中深圳和北京市场弹性较大，环比分别增长 18%和 17%，上海环比微增 2%，三地成交量在 2025 年高点的 82%-90%区间。同比来看，一线城市二手房整体增长 10%，三城均实现由负转正，其中深圳同比涨幅高达 30%，北京和上海分别增长 10%和 3%。 一线城市新房市场从低位缓慢爬升 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 地缘问题引发本周欧美市场波动较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题影响，本周欧 美市场波动较多。本周美股市场出现震荡。由于最近一段时间 的震荡消化，TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率得到了一定程度的消 化，但是目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.86，仍然处于 高于 35 的区间；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 46.03，较长时 间处于 45 以上的区间；纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.47，仍然 处于 40 以上的区间。美股科技类资产相关估值水平仍然偏高。 由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影 响，美股科技指数中期仍存在一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍然有 40.65，仍然处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普 的经济政策和外交政策等多方面政策的不确定性较大，且美股 估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、通讯服务、消费、工业等行业里 面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化的可能性。由于格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the Chinese banking industry, reflecting confidence in its long-term investment value amid macroeconomic development [4][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese banking industry is transitioning from a "scale-driven, interest-dominated" model to a "balanced, multi-driven" approach, indicating a fundamental shift in growth dynamics [2][3]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) is currently at 9.50%, which is stable but in a phase of decline, primarily due to increased capital constraints and narrowing net interest margins [1][10]. - There is significant reliance on net interest income (39.92%) compared to international peers, while fee and commission income (7.40%) remains low, highlighting potential areas for revenue structure optimization [1][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report provides a comprehensive review of the evolution of the Chinese banking industry over the past two decades, emphasizing the impact of macroeconomic cycles, policy directions, and financial regulations [13][14]. - The banking sector has experienced various phases, including the "Golden Era" (2002-2008) characterized by rapid growth, the "Silver Era" (2008-2017) driven by infrastructure and real estate, and the current "New Normal" focusing on high-quality development [17][19][21]. Performance Analysis - Profitability has been stable, but the ROE is under pressure due to systemic increases in capital adequacy ratios and declining net interest margins [2][10]. - The asset scale growth is slowing, with a notable increase in financial asset investments, while loan growth rates are tapering off [3][10]. International Comparison - The report compares the Chinese banking model with international counterparts, identifying the U.S. model as a high-performing, diversified approach, while the European and Japanese models adapt to low-interest environments with lower profitability [2][10]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the Chinese banking industry is expected to focus on transforming from "scale banks" to "value banks," with an emphasis on innovation and service to the real economy [3][5]. - Key growth areas include technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, which are anticipated to provide new credit demand and growth points [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on two types of institutions: large state-owned banks and leading joint-stock banks with strong customer bases and risk resilience, as well as high-quality regional banks with distinctive features in niche markets [6][10].

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 17.10, with a median value of 13.56 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.73, while the CSI 300 is at 13.39[9] - Excluding financial and oil sectors, the A-share PE (TTM) is 28.35, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[6] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 12.14, with a median of 10.33 and a maximum of 22.67[59] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 23.84, with a maximum of 65.18[62] U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 29.52, with a median of 21.19 and a maximum of 41.99[83] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 41.87, indicating a high valuation compared to historical averages[91] Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage sectors have low PE ratios, while technology sectors like computers and electronics have high PE ratios[23] - The current PB (LF) for the banking sector is 0.90, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical data[102] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations and unexpected corporate earnings results[105]

[Table_Title] 地缘问题引发本周欧美市场波动较多 证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 24 日 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题影响，本周欧 美市场波动较多。本周美股市场出现震荡。由于最近一段时间 的震荡消化，TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率得到了一定程度的消 化，但是目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.86，仍然处于 高于 35 的区间；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 46.03，较长时 间处于 45 以上的区间；纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.47，仍然 处于 40 以上的区间。美股科技类资产相关估值水平仍然偏高。 由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影 响，美股科技指数中期仍存在一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍然有 40.65，仍然处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普 的经济政策和外交政策等多方面政策的不确定性较大，且美股 估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、通讯服务、消费、工业等行业里 面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化的可能性。由于格 ...

安踏公司公告 2025Q4 运营数据:25Q4 主品牌/FILA/ 其他品牌同比低单位数负增长/中单位数正增长/35-40%正 增长。2025 全年安踏/FILA/其他品牌零售金额同比录得低 单位数/中单位数/45-50%的正增长。 特步公司公告 2025Q4 运营数据：Q4 主品牌零售流水同 比持平，折扣为七到七五折，25Q4 索康尼零售销售实现超 过 30%同比增长。2025 全年主品牌/索康尼品牌零售金额同 比录得低单位数/超过 30%的正增长，特步主品牌存货约四 个半月。 投资建议：我们分析，（1）制造类：此前市场对 25Q4 和 26 年展望乐观，但 25 年 12 月初以来有所调整，受海外 需求放缓影响。制造优选成长，推荐百隆东方、健盛集 团、开润股份；（2）品牌类：近期高端消费已现复苏迹 象，26 年不排除有通胀高企可能性，利好消费板块。品牌 优选利润弹性，推荐锦泓集团、歌力思、罗莱生活、稳健 医疗。（3）推荐宝洁金佰利产业链:推荐洁雅股份（受益 于品牌自有产能转移），受益标的：延江股份。 ► 线上数据跟踪：淘宝天猫平台 25 年 12 月女装增速有 所提升，恺米切增速最高 882 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Anta's Q4 2025 operational data shows a decline in main brand sales, while FILA and other brands experienced low single-digit negative growth and mid-single-digit positive growth, respectively. For the entire year of 2025, Anta, FILA, and other brands recorded retail sales growth of low single digits, mid-single digits, and 45-50% positive growth [2][3] - Xtep's Q4 2025 operational data indicates that the main brand's retail sales remained flat, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in retail sales. For the full year of 2025, Xtep's main brand and Saucony recorded low single-digit and over 30% positive growth in retail sales, respectively [2][3] 2. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the SW textile and apparel sector increased by 3.83%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.99% [14] - The top five stocks in the textile and apparel sector by weekly increase were Tianchuang Fashion, Yanjing Co., Mengjie Co., Tanshan Outdoor, and Sanfu Outdoor [14] 3. Industry Data Tracking 3.1. Raw Material Data - The Australian wool market index rose by 6.49% in the week ending January 15, 2026, and has increased by 38.49% since the beginning of 2025 [4][32] - The cotton price index in China decreased slightly, with a year-to-date increase of 1.83% as of January 23, 2026 [26] 3.2. Export Data - In 2025, textile and apparel exports totaled $267.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.26% [45] - In December 2025, the export value of oilcloth, tents, and sunshades decreased by 8.89% year-on-year [50] 3.3. End Consumer Data - In December 2025, the online retail sales of the apparel industry decreased by 11.93% year-on-year, with a total of 45.55 billion yuan [3.3.4] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, while online retail sales increased by 8.6% [3.3.5]

[Table_Title] 必和必拓 2025Q4 铜产量环比减少 4%至 49.05 万 吨，2026 财年铜产量指引为 190-200 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 ► 2025Q4 分业务表现 1）铜 2025Q4，铜总产量为 49.05 万吨，同比减少 4%，环比减少 1%。 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 23 日 2025Q4，铁矿石总产量为 6970 万吨，同比增加 5%，环比增加 9%。 2025Q4，铁矿石成交均价为 85.33 美元/湿吨，同比上涨 4%， 环比上涨 2%。 3）焦煤 2025Q4，必和必拓三菱联盟公司（BMA）产量为 860 万吨 （100%基础），同比减少 3%，环比减少 12%。 2025Q4，焦煤成交均价为 196.72 美元/吨，同比下跌 1%，环 比上涨 9%。 4）动力煤 2025Q4，动力煤产量为 460 万吨，同比增加 25%，环比增加 31%。 2025Q4，动力煤成交均价为 96.24 美元/吨，同比下跌 23%， 环比上涨 1%。 2 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 泰克资源 2025Q4 铜产量同比增加 9.9%至 13.41 万 吨，2026 年铜产量指引维持 41.5-46.5 万吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 23 日 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 2025 年铜产量 45.35 万吨，同比增加 1.7%，符合先前披露的 指导目标，这得益于第四季度所有资产的强劲运营表现。 Quebrada Blanca 矿区第四季度表现突出，铜产量达 55,400 吨，期间公司持续推进尾矿库建设，并始终专注于运营稳定性 及向稳态运营的过渡。2025 年第四季度铜销量低于产量，主要 因十二月天气及海况导致 QB 短期库存积压，致使部分发货延 至 2026 年初。2025Q4 铜产量 13.41 万吨，同比增加 9.9%，环 比增加 28.9%。 2025 年精矿锌产量 56.5 万吨，同比减少 8.3%，处于此前披露 指导区间的高位。第四季度精矿锌销量为 15.72 万吨，Red Dog 矿区所有发货均于季度初完成，符合常 ...

2025Q4，公司稀土氧化物(REO)产量为 2,382 吨，环比减 少 40%，同比减少 9%。 2025Q4，公司稀土氧化物(REO)销量为 2,359 吨，环比减 少 36%，同比减少 18%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 23 日 [Table_Title] Lynas 2025Q4 REO 产量环比减少 40%至 2,382 吨，NdPr 产量环比减少 30%至 1,404 吨，镝铽产 量为 26 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►公司 2025Q4 生产经营情况 1）Mt Weld（稀土氧化物 REO） 2025Q4，稀土氧化物(REO)平均实现价格为 85.6 澳元/公 斤，环比上涨 58%，同比上涨 74%。平均售价的上涨反映了基 准价格的提高以及独立于市场指数定价的销售份额的增加。四 季度的积极市场情绪延续至 2026 年 1 月。 Mt Weld 混合可再生能源发电站的 4 台风力涡轮机自 11 月以来全部投入运行。这显著提升了发电效率，12 月份该发电 站 92%的电力来 ...