Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

Market Review - The South Korean Composite Index, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, and Taiwan Weighted Index led global gains, while US stock indices declined during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026. In the A-share market, cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with oil, military, and media industries leading, while utilities faced the largest declines [1] - On January 2, the first trading day after New Year's, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a "good start," with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 4% in a single day, particularly in semiconductor, AI computing, and internet giants, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite [1] Market Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a "big year" with multiple positive factors converging, maintaining a solid bull market foundation. The spring rally has started early due to several reasons: 1. Macro policy cycle indicates that 2026, as the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, will see multiple departments intensifying the rollout of supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [2] 2. In December, institutional funds, represented by stock ETFs, showed significant inflows, with insurance funds expected to contribute to the market's upward trend due to favorable exchange rate movements [2] 3. With the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate earnings are expected to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, making the bet on earnings inflection points a crucial support for the market [2] Key Focus Areas - The new chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a focal point this month, with the December meeting minutes indicating a majority support for further rate cuts, although there are significant policy path divergences among officials. The probability of a rate cut in January is currently low at 17% [2] - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, with production and new orders indices at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating improvements in both supply and demand [3] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, with the construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting the effectiveness of policy-driven financial tools [3] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a list of early construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - The "two new" policies for 2026 will continue and be optimized, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in subsidy funds being released early [4] - New local government bond limits will also be issued ahead of schedule, alongside measures in the real estate sector to reduce transaction costs for residents [4] Institutional Investment Trends - Since December, there has been a significant net inflow of institutional funds, particularly into A500-related ETFs, indicating a proactive approach to the spring rally [5] - The beginning of the year typically sees aggressive credit issuance from banks, which is expected to improve the liquidity outlook for the real economy and enterprises [5] - Recommended sectors for investment include emerging growth themes supported by industrial policies, such as AI computing, robotics, and domestic substitution, as well as sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" and price increases, such as chemicals and new energy [5]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 16.59, with a median of 13.54 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.35, while the CSI 300 is at 13.48[9] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 40.77, with a maximum of 137.86[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.77, with a median of 10.32 and a maximum of 22.67[60] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 22.87, with a maximum of 65.18[62] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.44, with a maximum of 29.92[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.18, with a median of 21.16 and a maximum of 41.99[84] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 41.35, with a maximum of 75.53[92] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE (TTM) of 30.64, with a maximum of 34.70[96] Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors have lower PE ratios, indicating historical undervaluation[22] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, shows higher PE ratios, suggesting potential overvaluation[22] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors have lower PB ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities[22]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the core investment themes of "AI+" and commercial aerospace, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics and opportunities for growth in these sectors [1][4]. - The A-share market has experienced a technology bull market, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading the gains, particularly in "hard technology" assets [11][12]. - Revenue and gross profit for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 8.13% in the first three quarters of 2025 [15][21]. Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing AI revolution, with a focus on the evolution of large language models (LLMs) from scale to efficiency and reasoning capabilities, marking the onset of an application era [41][43]. - Gemini 3 Pro, a new large language model from Google, has demonstrated significant breakthroughs in multi-modal interaction and industry benchmark tests, showcasing its advanced capabilities [47][49]. - The domestic large model landscape is rapidly evolving, with Chinese models achieving competitive performance against international counterparts, emphasizing high performance and low cost as foundational for AI applications [49][51]. Group 3 - The report notes that AI has permeated various aspects of daily life, with significant user engagement in AI-native applications, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [55][57]. - AI agents are becoming crucial tools for enterprise process restructuring, with a notable increase in the adoption rate among companies, particularly in technology and finance sectors [65][67]. - The investment landscape in China's equity market has shown growth, with a 19.8% increase in investment cases and a 9.0% rise in investment amounts in 2025 compared to the previous year, particularly in the AI sector [40][41].

生猪产能去化开启，迎 来左侧布局时机 农林牧渔团队 证券分析师：周莎 SAC NO:S1120519110005 目录 01 生猪养殖：左侧布局，静待反转 1 02 种植：粮价渐回升，景气有望修复 03 风险提示 2025年12月31日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 证券研究报告 01 生猪养殖：左侧布局，静待反转 2 1.1 旺季不旺，2025Q4猪价为近10年最低，产能调减为主旋律 图2 能繁母猪存栏量变化 图1 2022-2025年月度猪价走势对比（元/公斤） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2022 2023 2024 2025 3,900 3,950 4,000 4,050 4,100 中国能繁母猪存栏量 万头 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 3 资料来源：Wind，华西证券研究所 1.3 政策引导，被动去产能，未来看高质量发展 据猪易通数据，2025Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4（截止12.21）全国生猪价格分别为15.06/14.53/13.88/11.72元/公斤，猪价逐季下降， 同比分别+4.27%/-1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the premium income for life insurance and health insurance has shown a marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in original premium income for the first 11 months of 2025, totaling 414.72 billion yuan [1] - In November, the decline in premium income for personal insurance narrowed compared to October, with a monthly income of 154.8 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.6% [1] - The report highlights a positive trend in property insurance, with total premium income for the first 11 months of 2025 reaching 161.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a monthly income of 124.8 billion yuan in November, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 4.06463 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 13.2% compared to the end of 2024, driven by premium income growth and appreciation of investment assets [3] - The report suggests that the demand for savings insurance remains strong due to higher preset interest rates compared to bank deposits, which may attract some deposits into the insurance sector [4] - The supply side is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the insurance marketing system and the removal of certain restrictions, leading to a concentration of market share among leading insurance companies [4] Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - Original premium income for personal insurance companies from January to November 2025 was 414.72 billion yuan, with life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance contributing 338.74 billion, 72.52 billion, and 3.46 billion yuan respectively [1] - The monthly premium income for November was 154.8 billion yuan, with life insurance at 112.6 billion yuan, health insurance at 40.2 billion yuan, and accident insurance at 2 billion yuan [1] Property Insurance - Original premium income for property insurance companies from January to November 2025 was 161.57 billion yuan, with motor insurance and non-motor insurance at 84.32 billion and 77.25 billion yuan respectively [2] - The monthly premium income for November was 124.8 billion yuan, with motor insurance at 82 billion yuan and non-motor insurance at 42.8 billion yuan [2] Asset Growth - Total assets of the insurance industry reached 4.06463 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with life insurance companies holding 3.57526 trillion yuan and property insurance companies holding 314.81 billion yuan [3] - Net assets totaled 367.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [3]

Group 1: PMI Overview - Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1% in December, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2%, marking the first expansion in eight months and exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 49.2%[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 50.2%, up from 49.5%[1] - The composite PMI for December rose by 1 percentage point to 50.7%, the highest in the second half of the year[5] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - Key drivers for the manufacturing PMI were production and new orders, with production increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% and new orders rising by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%[1] - New export orders improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, nearing the highest level of the year[2] - Manufacturing purchasing volume increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while raw material purchase prices decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%[2] Group 3: Construction and Services Sector - The construction sector saw a significant rebound, with the business activity index rising by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, the highest in the second half of the year[3] - Service sector PMI increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[3] - New orders in the service sector rose by 1.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating some improvement despite overall weakness in consumer-related services[3] Group 4: Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Price trends showed divergence, with manufacturing output prices rebounding by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while service and construction prices fell[4] - The overall economic recovery in December is attributed to increased fiscal spending and positive expectations for the upcoming year, particularly with the 2026 Spring Festival being later in February[4] - The necessity for aggressive monetary policy easing appears to be decreasing, with potential delays in interest rate cuts anticipated[6]

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector increased by 12.12% from early 2025 to December 28, 2025, ranking 19th among 31 primary industries, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.13 percentage points [4][12] - The price-to-earnings ratio for the non-bank financial sector is 11.62 times, ranking 23rd among primary industries, while the weighted price-to-book ratio is 1.79 times, the lowest 37th percentile in the past decade [4][12] - The adjusted revenue for 46 comparable listed brokerages reached 432.6 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 179 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 45% and 62% respectively [4][62] Group 2 - The insurance sector's net profit for five A-share listed insurance companies totaled 426 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% [4] - The report anticipates that the net profit of listed insurance companies will continue to maintain double-digit growth for the entire year of 2025, supported by better performance in the equity market in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year [4] - The report highlights that the insurance sector's valuation may see continuous recovery due to synchronized improvement in assets and liabilities, along with potential overperformance in the "opening red" period [5] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of the securities industry as a financing intermediary for new productive forces and long-term capital allocation, recommending attention to brokerages with expected industry mergers, strong overseas business layouts, and effective wealth management transformations [5] - Specific beneficiaries include China Galaxy, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and Dongfang Wealth, as well as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which stands to benefit from active equity financing [5] - The report also identifies venture capital companies focusing on AI, robotics, and solid-state batteries as beneficiaries of accelerated IPOs in technology sectors [5] Group 4 - The report notes that the capital market in 2025 has shown a resilient upward trend, with daily trading volume in the A-share market averaging 17.23 billion yuan, an increase of 97% and 62% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively [29][30] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 24.84 million in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8% [30] - The report indicates that the average daily turnover rate for A-shares in 2025 was 3.83%, significantly higher than the rates in 2023 and 2024 [38]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong resilience of leading white goods companies, highlighting their high dividend yields, with Gree Electric at 7.3%, Midea Group at 5.1%, Hisense Home Appliances at 4.9%, and Haier Smart Home at 4.6% [6][22] - The "Home Appliance +" strategy indicates opportunities in extending the appliance industry into robotics, with companies like Midea Group and Fuhua Co. making significant advancements [6][58] - The export market shows potential, particularly in the U.S. real estate sector, with expectations of demand recovery due to anticipated interest rate cuts and housing stimulus policies [6][70] Section Summaries 2025 Home Appliance Review - The home appliance index has shown a modest increase of 7.7% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 9.7 percentage points [11][14] - The market style in 2025 has favored growth stocks, while the home appliance sector has leaned towards value, leading to a mismatch in market expectations [13][14] - The public fund allocation in the home appliance sector is at a historical low of 2.94%, indicating potential for future growth as external demand remains optimistic [18][19] Dividends - Leading white goods companies maintain high dividend yields, with Gree Electric at 7.3%, Supor at 6.1%, and Midea Group at 5.1%, reflecting strong earnings resilience [24][29] - The report suggests that the dividend rates for companies like Midea and Haier may continue to increase, supported by robust profit growth [24][30] Domestic Sales - The national subsidy policy has positively impacted consumer confidence, with a clear trend towards structural upgrades in appliance consumption [34] - The sales growth of home appliances has been driven by the "trade-in" policy, although growth rates have shown a declining trend in the latter part of the year [34][39] - The air conditioning market has maintained stable pricing, with a continued trend towards mid-to-high-end products [39] "Home Appliance +" - Midea Group has made significant investments in robotics, with humanoid robots already in practical application within factories [58] - Fuhua Co. is expected to launch its grain storage robots in 2026, indicating a diversification into new growth areas [59] - Key component manufacturers like Huaxiang Co. and Hanyu Group are positioned to benefit from the robotics trend, focusing on core components such as reducers and harmonic drives [64][65] Exports - The U.S. real estate market is expected to recover, with potential interest rate cuts and housing stimulus policies likely to boost demand for home appliances [71][84] - Retail inventory levels in the U.S. are high, which may affect sales performance in the short term, but long-term housing demand remains strong [76][83] - The report anticipates that if mortgage rates fall below 6%, there could be a significant recovery in demand within the real estate chain [84]