交银国际证券有限公司及/或其集团公司现持有东方证券股份有限公司、光大证券股份有限公司及Interra Acquisition Corp的已发行股本逾1%。 本报告之收取者透过接受本报告 (包括任何有关的附件)，表示幷保证其根据下述的条件下有权获得本报告，幷且同意受此中包含的限制条件 所约束。任何没有遵循这些限制的情况可能构成法律之违反。 本报告为高度机密，幷且只以非公开形式供交银国际证券的客户阅览。本报告只在基于能被保密的情况下提供给阁下。未经交银国际证券事 先以书面同意，本报告及其中所载的资料不得以任何形式(i)复制、复印或储存，或者(ii) 直接或者间接分发或者转交予任何其它人作任何用 途。 交银国际证券、其联属公司、关联公司、董事、关联方及/或雇员，可能持有在本报告内所述或有关公司之证券、幷可能不时进行买卖、或 对其有兴趣。此外，交银国际证券、其联属公司及关联公司可能与本报告内所述或有关的公司不时进行业务往来，或为其担任市场庄家，或 被委任替其证券进行承销，或可能以委托人身份替客户买入或沽售其证劵，或可能为其担当或争取担当幷提供投资银行、顾问、包销、融资 或其它服务，或替其从其它实体寻求同类型之服务。投 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 16 日 电池行业月报 电池出口增长强劲,多款快充/超充电池新品发布;关注行业规范落地执行情况 下游需求带动动力电池装车量,磷酸铁锂装车占比进一步提升。产量:6 月,我国电池总产量为 84.5 GWh,同比增长 28.7%;1-6 月,累计产量为 430.0 GWh,同比增长36.9%。销量:6 月,我国电池销量为92.2 GWh,同 比增长 51.2%。1-6 月,电池累计销量为 402.6 GWh,同比增长 40.3%。其 中,动力电池当月销量为 69.3 GWh,同比增长 37.0%;1-6 月累计销量为 318.1 GWh,同比增长 26.6%。装车量:6 月,我国动力电池装车量 42.8 GWh,同比增长 30.2%。其中三元电池/磷酸铁锂电池装车量分别为 11.1 GWh/31.7 GWh,分别同比增长 10.2%/39.3%,磷酸铁锂占比总装车量 74.0%。1-6 月,我国动力电池累计装车量 203.3 GWh,同比增长 33.7%。 6 月电池出口整体表现强劲。6 月,我国电池合计出口 18.4 GWh,同比增 长 67.8%,合计出口占当月销量 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 15 日 行业与大盘一年趋势图 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 资料来源: FactSet 6 月电商月报:大促错期,2 季度行业中个位数增长 估值概要 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------- ...

收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 16.71 美元 20.00↑ +19.7% 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) 微幅上调 2 季度收入预期。我们微幅上调 2024 年 2 季度收入 1%至 61 亿元 （人民币，下同），同比增 16%，主要因新游超预期。我们维持 VAS/广告 收入同比 15%/26%增长预期，持续看好广告产品/技术迭代效能释放以及 电商拉动。我们预计毛利率同/环比扩大 6/1 个百分点至 29%，主要因规模 效应及广告收入占比提升。考虑新游投放加大，我们维持经调整归母净亏 损 3.3 亿元预期，较去年同期/1 季度延续收窄趋势（收窄 66%/25%）。 维持买入：基于游戏收入调整，我们上调 2024/25 年总收入 5%/8%，考虑 营销投入加大部分抵消收入增量，我们维持 3 季度扭亏为盈预期，并小幅 上调 2025 年净利润预期。基于可比文娱公司平均现价对应 2 倍 2025 年市 销率，上调目标价至 20 美元/155 港元（9626 HK）（原为 17 美元/132 港 元）。7 月 15 日港股股价回调近 8%，或主要反映日流水下滑以及投资人 对买量投放影响盈利能力的担忧。我们认为 8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of USD 15.50, representing a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of USD 10.52 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights TAL's strong revenue growth, projecting a 42% year-over-year increase in Q1 FY2025, with expected revenues of USD 390 million [2][3]. - The company is expanding its teaching points significantly, with an estimated 14% quarter-over-quarter increase and a year-over-year growth of approximately 65-70% [2][3]. - TAL's hardware sales, particularly the new learning machine launched in May, are expected to drive high growth, with sales estimates of 70,000 to 80,000 units for the quarter [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL are as follows: USD 1,490 million for FY2024, USD 2,036 million for FY2025, and USD 2,514 million for FY2026, with respective growth rates of 46.2%, 36.6%, and 23.5% [4][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach USD 142 million in FY2025, with a significant increase of 67% year-over-year [3][4]. - The report estimates a non-GAAP net profit of USD 85 million for FY2024 and USD 142 million for FY2025, indicating a recovery from previous losses [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47 times for FY2025, with a price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, suggesting an attractive valuation [3][4]. - The report indicates a projected gross margin of 56.3% for FY2025, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [11].

量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之 或在计算、通信和测量领域为下游 降本增效,提高生产效率 量子技术代表先进生产力的发展方向,是各国长期投资发展的重要领域。近年 ess 全球量子技术集中在量子计算领域,2023年,我国在量子计算领域融资规 来, 模占全球的8.1%。但我们认为,我国量子产业未来的规模或远大于当前的融资 投入。我们预测2030年我国在量子产业中的总体市场份额或可达15%。 量子技术应用广泛,市场潜力亟待开发,细分领域中,我们认为量子计算市场 潜力最为可观。 到2030年市场规模或可 达到 2,391亿美元 , 对 应 2023-30年65%复合 年增长率,其中计算/通 信 / 测 量 分 别 为 2,155 /197/38.Z亿美元。 建议关注国盾量子 态源量至等中国领 先企业,以及lonQ, IBM、 谷歌等海外 大型企业量子计算 的进展。 分析师 | 玉犬卫 董理 & es 交银国际研究 行业剖析 科技行业 量子技术:新质生产力的下一个突破口? 量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之一,或在计算、通信和测量领域为 下游降本增效,提高生产效率。量子技术利用量子叠加态和量子纠缠等不 同量子技术实现高 ...

子业研究 2024年7月2日 首 次 覆 盖 开挂 迪 1585 HK 689009 CH 综 源 2451 HK 分析师 李易 中国市场 : 行业迎来新发展、新机遇, 三大驱动力推动销量稳中向上。 1)新国标置换需求仍未完全落放;2)以日换新政策利好,日大保存量 夯实置换需求;3)新增需求: To C视To B端均贡献销售增量。随着今年 下半年行业规范逐步完善、以旧换新政策支持或将推出,整体消费情绪将 回暖,我们预测2024-27年中国电动网轮车销量为5,360/5,520/5,800/ 6,150万台。 ■ 海外市场:海阔凭鱼跃,天高甘吗飞。全球对电动两轮车的需求逐渐增加, 海外电动两轮车2023-27年的销量复合年增长率预测达25.6%,增长潜力 较大。中国车企在出口方面具备供应链和成本优势、提供多样化的产品选 择,出口销量有超以11.5%的复合年增长率增长。 电动两轮车:行业整合正当时,导找α机会。行业整合加快将利好具有竞 争优势的头部企业。未来行业竞争的核心在于产品差异化和盈利高质量增 看好销量持续增长、注重产品质量和研发投入并积极进行产品结构优 业 化的企业 重点研究公司:雅迪 | 九号 | 绿源 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the technology sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Core Views - Huawei's HDC 2024 developer conference showcased significant advancements in AI and operating systems, particularly with the launch of HarmonyOS NEXT and PanGu Model 5.0 [1] - HarmonyOS NEXT represents a major shift as it no longer supports Android apps, focusing instead on a unified system across devices with performance improvements of 30% and a goal of 20% annual performance enhancement [1] - PanGu Model 5.0 introduces three major upgrades: full-series, multi-modal, and strong-thinking capabilities, with applications across 30+ industries and 400+ scenarios [2] - Harmony Intelligence, combining on-device and cloud-based AI, enhances user experience and system integration, similar to Apple's approach with Apple Intelligence [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, is expected to drive further growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors [2] Key Highlights by Section HarmonyOS NEXT - HarmonyOS NEXT adopts a vertical integration architecture and no longer supports Android apps, focusing on a unified system across devices [1] - Performance improvements include a 10.7% boost over Linux kernel and a 30% overall system performance increase, with a target of 20% annual improvement [1] - Over 1,500 of the top 5,000 apps have been adapted for HarmonyOS NEXT, covering 99.9% of user usage time [1] - HarmonyOS has achieved a 17% market share in China, surpassing iOS's 16% [1] - Beta testing for HarmonyOS NEXT has begun, with a commercial release planned for Q4 2024 [1] PanGu Model 5.0 - PanGu Model 5.0 features full-series models ranging from billions to trillions of parameters, suitable for various business scenarios [2] - Multi-modal capabilities include support for 10K ultra-high resolution in image and video recognition, and the use of STCG technology for generating physically accurate multi-modal content [2] - Strong-thinking capabilities combine chain-of-thought techniques with strategic search, enhancing mathematical and complex task planning abilities [2] - The model has been applied in over 30 industries and 400 scenarios, including pharmaceuticals, robotics, and autonomous driving [2] Harmony Intelligence - Harmony Intelligence integrates AI deeply into the system using a hybrid on-device and cloud-based approach [2] - The on-device component combines personal data, user intent, UI, and AI subsystems, while the cloud leverages PanGu Model 5.0 and third-party models [2] - The upgraded XiaoYi assistant, based on PanGu Model 5.0, has improved memory and reasoning capabilities by 23% and 90%, respectively [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, strengthens the integration of AI at both the architecture and system levels [2] Market and Industry Impact - Huawei's advancements are expected to drive growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors, particularly in smartphone and semiconductor industries [1][2] - Companies like Will Semiconductor, BYD Electronics, and GoerTek are highlighted as short-term beneficiaries, while enterprise and application software firms like iSoftStone and Thundersoft are seen as long-term opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry or the specific company discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding asset-liability mismatch issues raised by the Japan Agricultural and Forestry Central Bank (Norinchukin), which plans to sell over 10 trillion yen (approximately 63 billion USD) in government bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The bank's asset structure shows that securities account for 44%, while loans and discounted bills only account for 18%. The liabilities are primarily sourced from member bank deposits, which constitute 68% of the total [2]. - The report indicates that the bank's bond investments have been generating continuous losses since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, with unrealized losses amounting to 2.2 trillion yen, representing 7% of the bond investment amounting to 31.3 trillion yen [2]. - The bank aims to adjust its investment portfolio by reducing its holdings in foreign sovereign bonds and increasing exposure to corporate and personal credit risks, including equities, corporate bonds, and securitized products [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial Performance - Norinchukin plans to sell over 10 trillion yen in bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025, which is an increase of 1 trillion yen from previous expectations [1]. - The bank's bond investments have resulted in significant unrealized losses due to the rising interest rates, with a total unrealized loss of 2.2 trillion yen reported for the fiscal year 2023 [2]. Section 2: Asset and Liability Structure - As of March 2024, the asset structure is heavily weighted towards securities (44%) and bonds (56%), with foreign bonds making up 75% of the bond portfolio [2][3]. - The liabilities are primarily composed of member bank deposits (68%) and repurchase agreements (14%) [2]. Section 3: Strategic Adjustments - The bank intends to sell U.S. government bonds to improve profitability and adjust its investment strategy, focusing on increasing allocations to corporate credit and equities [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for banks to closely monitor interest rate trends to manage asset-liability mismatch risks effectively [2].

收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 31.85 港元 47.70 +49.8% 中国香港房地产 2024 年 6 月 21 日 我们近期走访了领展旗下的上海七宝万科广场，领展已于2024年2月完成 了对该公司剩余 50%股权的收购。以下是主要亮点： 几乎滿租且有正续租租金调整。据项目人员介绍，即使在 2020-22 年期 间，该项目的出租率也高达约 95%，高于其他邻近购物中心的 80 – 90%。 该项目在 2023 年实现约 11%的正续租租金调整率，即使在充满挑战的零 售环境下，管理人员仍预计在 2024 年可实现低个位数的正租金调整，主 要由餐饮支持。 资产增值、租户结构升级以保持增长。领展一直在优化租户组合，引入一 些热门品牌，如Lululemon、Salomon以及其他轻奢品牌，以提高租户的整 体租金承受能力。与此同时，购物中心在 4/5 层约 7,000 平方米的资产正 在进行资产提升计划，预计将于2024年3季度完成。领展表示，该区域大 部分面积已预租，预计竣工后可实现两位数的投资回报率，整体出租率将 恢复至 95%以上。 1 年单位价格表现 交银国际研究 公司更新 领展房托 (823 HK) 租 ...